September 4, 2010 is still six weeks away, but college football season is rapidly approaching. I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming season as we go along, but in the interim, I will post a few nuggets and other (hopefully) interesting stuff.
For a stats junkie like me, it doesn’t get any better than this College Football Stats page. Just like reading a horse racing form, I am hoping to pore through all of the data to discover some underlying truths to help explain prior results and also to debunk some commonly held assumptions and conclusions that just don’t hold up under scrutiny. Here are three “myths” and “truths” that bare a closer look under the stats microscope. All of the stats reference conference games only.
1. LSU’s defense was on the field way too much. This “bend but don’t break philosophy doesn’t work.”
Now I will agree that at times it seemed the defense was always on the field, but the stats create an interesting picture. LSU’s defense was on the field for 545 plays in 2009, 4th most in the conference. Would you believe that Alabama’s vaunted defense had 560 plays, 2nd most in the SEC? LSU’s defense was only on the field two plays more per game than Florida. Furthermore, LSU gave up only 4.8 yards per play, ranking 3rd. Alabama and Florida led the conference at 4.5 yards per play.
2. Jordan Jefferson is the problem on offense.
Compare these four QB’s:
- QB “A” – Comp % 54, TD’s 14, INT’s 7, Rating 118.39
- QB “B” – Comp % 58, TD’s 11, INT’s 8, Rating 128.48
- QB “C” – Comp % 52, TD’s 11, INT’s 8, Rating 118.42
- QB “D” – Comp % 62, TD’s 9, INT’s 4, Rating 130.65
Quarterback A was a 5th year senior and won a National Championship that season. Quarterback B was a redshirt sophomore who eventually went on to become the #1 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. Quarterback C was a true sophomore who eventually went on to be the #1 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Quarterback D will be starting for LSU against UNC on September 4th. We are talking about Matt Flynn, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford and Jordan Jefferson.
At this point in their careers, Jefferson stacks up very well. He has a better rating and the fewest turnovers. Furthermore, 2009 saw the worst offensive line in the past decade at LSU. Jefferson absolutely needs to improve, but let us place blame where it belongs, on the large shoulders on the O-line.
3. Winning the “turnover battle” is just coach speak.
The last three SEC Champs have all finished first in the league in turnover margin. Since 2004, the lowest turnover margin by the eventual champion was the 2004 Auburn team that went undefeated. The Tigers finished at +1, ranked 5th in the conference.
Thanks to cfbstats.com for all of the data. Priceless.
4 comments:
but the stats don't count for all the times Jefferson ate the because he didn't know what to do with it or couldn't find the open receiver
Interesting note on the defensive statistics... I wonder if you, oh guru of the gridiron statistic, could dig a little deeper and determine WHEN these defensive plays took place. My bet is that Bama and (particularly)UF played a great portion of their total defensive plays in the late 3rd and 4th quarter, when their games were out of reach and the scrubs were getting experience. Conversely, it seemed as though LSU had their D on the field in every quarter, with their starters giving up quite a bit of third and longs. Some of the field time can be attributable to the anemic offense LSU had, but I would reckon Bama and UF's defensive statistics for the 1st half were substantially better.
Good point Mr Anonymous. Aaron Brooks always had a great looking stat sheet, but couldn't lead the team. Jefferson is the same, he folds under pressure.
6 weeks until the good times roll again ...It's going to be whacky; more unpredictable than last season. Time to start laying in a seasons supply of rolaids and other antacids.
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