May the Playoff Chase Begin

On December 7, 2014, four golden tickets will be handed out for the inaugural College Football Playoff.  The chase begins this Thursday in Columbia, South Carolina as Texas A&M visits the Gamecocks.  LSU’s run at a title begins in Houston, Texas versus the Wisconsin Badgers Saturday night.

A few nuggets before the game break down:

* Miles is 9-0 in openers while at LSU, with an average score of 38-18.

* LSU has been ranked 82 consecutive weeks in the AP Top 25.  It’s the second longest streak in the country behind…Alabama.

* Terrence Magee will wear the #18 jersey for LSU this season.  The passing down of the #18 jersey has become a tradition during Miles time in Baton Rouge.  Since 2010, the number has been passed down to a Senior.

* LSU holds the all-time record for consecutive regular season non-conference wins with 45…and counting.

With young QB’s and untested receivers, look for LSU to run…and run…and run some more.  Some of the TV talking heads have tabbed LSU’s offensive line as the best in the SEC.  Why not run behind it?  Early success against Wisconsin’s front seven, of which only one starter returns, will make it easier for Jennings/Harris to find a rhythm throwing down field.  Expect a fairly low risk game plan to keep the pressure off the QB’s.

LSU was poor on defense away from Tiger Stadium last season.  Can they bring the efforts shown against Texas A&M and Florida last season into Reliant Stadium?  The secondary and linebacking corps are talented and experienced.  LSU brings back 12 of its top 16 tacklers from last season.  The real question is at defensive tackle, lots of talented but unproven players.

Look for Wisconsin to employ a similar attack to LSU.  The Badgers’ best weapon is RB Melvin Gordon who ran for over 1,600 last season.  In a surprise move, last season’s starter at QB, Joel Stave, appears to have lost out in fall camp to Tanner McEvoy.  McEvoy played WR and safety last season so you have to wonder if Wisconsin’s QB situation is just as unsettled as the Tigers.

The game will be close but LSU should pull away late and survive a few nervous moments before “securing victory.”

LSU 27 – Wisconsin 20

LSU 2014 Preview

There are so many questions entering this season. 

The biggest one is who will start at the most important position on the team, quarterback.  LSU has two options, true sophomore Anthony Jennings and true freshman Brandon Harris.  Both are 4 star recruits with plenty of athletic ability and potential.  There has been a great deal of talk that Harris may indeed take over as the starter as the season moves along.

However, the SEC generally punishes young quarterbacks.  Since 2007, only 6 freshmen have been the primary starters for their team at QB.  I’ve defined “primary starter” as playing in more than 75% of their school’s games and throwing at least 15 passes per game. 

Four of those were redshirt freshmen and two were true freshmen.  The 4 redshirts were a mixed bag.  Obviously Aaron Murray (UGA ‘10) and Johnny Manziel (A&M ‘12) were fantastic their first years combining for 50 TD’s and only 17 INT’s.  The other two, Jarrett Lee (LSU ‘08) and Corbin Berkstresser (Mizz ‘12) struggled throwing on 19 TD’s and 23 INT’s.

The picture with the two true freshmen, Wesley Carroll (MSU ’07) and Jalen Whitlow (UK ’12) is ugly.  Both finished dead last in the SEC in QB rating in their respective seasons.  They combined for 12 TD’s and 9 INT’s.

On the plus side, the offensive linemen are very experienced.  This will be one of Miles best units in his time at LSU.  Running back is no issue with Magee and Hilliard returning and the #1 player in the country, Leonard Fournette, being added to the mix.  The receivers are young but talented.  There will be drop off of course, but it’s not nearly the same concern as QB.

The defense will be better this season, much better.  LSU had so many new starters and it really showed on the road.  In four SEC home games, LSU averaged giving up 334 yards and 16 points per game.  In the four road games, the Tigers gave up 465 yards and 33.8 points per game.  That is a huge swing which I attribute to the comfort and confidence of playing in Tiger Stadium versus the hostile atmospheres around the SEC.

With road trips to Florida, Auburn, Arkansas and Texas A&M not to mention a home tussle with Alabama, expect growing pains and a few costly mistakes. LSU will be good this season, but nothing special.  An invitation to one of the big 6 bowls would be a great accomplishment.  I think it’s most likely that LSU goes 9-3.  Quarterback play will dictate if the number of wins moves up...or down.

From a big picture standpoint, LSU is doing very well coming off four straight 10 win+ seasons and the #2 recruiting class in the nation this past spring.  But I feel there is still a pall hanging over the program since the National Title Game debacle against Alabama. 

From 2001 to 2007, LSU made four trips to Atlanta for the SEC Title game.  But over the last six seasons, the only divisional title was in 2011.  It was inevitable that LSU would eventually regress from the staggering heights of two National Titles in five years.  But this is a glory game, defined by championships, be they divisional, conference or national.   

This is not to diminish what Miles has done.  This is the Golden Age of LSU Football.  LSU has become one of the premier programs in the country. But the bar has been set high, and fans expect to see hardware at the end of the season…or a win over Alabama. 

Reading Materials

Here are few good articles from around the web.  Enjoy!

ESPN's LSU Preview

College Football News' LSU Preview

How would the Playoff have worked during the BCS years?

Why Bob Stoops is Better than Nick Saban

Why schools see you not as a fan but a source of revenue

Poll Dancing

The Coaches Poll just came out with LSU clocking in at lucky #13.  With the advent of the College Football Playoff, the Coaches Poll becomes about as irrelevant as the AP Poll.  But it is still talking season so here are a few thoughts.

*No real issue with the first 4 teams, FSU, Bama, Sooners and Oregon.  Would anyone be surprised if these were the four teams selected to play in the CFP at the end of the season?

* Overrated Teams

Auburn (5)

Stanford (11)
USC (15)
Texas A&M (20)
Texas (24)

*Underrated Teams

South Carolina (9)

Clemson (16)
Nebraska (22)
Oklahoma State (NR)
Marshall (NR)

Many of the talking heads in the media are worried about “bias” among the selection committee members of the CFP.  It seems to me a huge upgrade from letting the coaches have a say in who plays for the title.  That poll is rife with agendas, grudges and self-interest.  The basketball committee has done a great job through the years, I expect nothing less from this distinguished group.