Wednesday, August 07, 2002

2002 SEC West Preview

Can LSU repeat? How will probation affect Alabama? Can MSU regroup after last year’s disaster? Is it Ole Piss’ turn to make the SEC Championship? Will Arkansas find an offense? Did Auburn do the right thing when hiring the “Riverboat Bumbler…er…Gambler?” The SEC West has had a different representative each of the past four years. MSU in 1998, Alabama in 1999, Auburn in 2000 and LSU in 2001. LSU went from being one of only two teams in the West never to go to the SEC Championship to only the second team in the West to win the SEC Title (the other being Bama of course).

I’ve given a great deal of thought to these rankings. I’ve spent plenty of hours of reading articles on the internet and pre-season magazines, pouring over schedules, returning line-ups and incoming freshman. And after all of that I still am left with more questions than answers. So I humbly present my forecast for the SEC West.

Roll Tide. I may take some heat from the Tiger faithful for this pick, but I think Alabama will win the West. However, they will have an asterisk next to their name in the standings because of probation. Which puts, drum roll please, the LSU Tigers in the SEC Championship in a rematch with Tennessee. If everyone will recall, Auburn was the last SEC team placed on probation with a post season ban back in 1993. Auburn proceeded to go 20-1-1 over the next two seasons. I’m not saying Alabama will fare that well, but they have the players and schedule to come out on top of the SEC West with a 5-3 or 6-2 conference record. Tyler Watts (QB) has loads of experience from last year and won’t be looking over his shoulder at Andrew Zow who graduated. Santonio Beard (RB) and Ahmaad Galloway (RB) provide workhorses in the backfield. The players on the squad will have a bunker mentality, as there wasn’t the mass exodus of players as some had expected. Coach Fran will have them better prepared in his second year and I expect Bama to close out some games they gave away last season.

LSU will have its best defense since 1995. With Hill (DE) and Spears (DE) on the ends and Lavalais (DT) in the middle, Bradie James (LB) and company will be able to lay some lumber. The secondary will be better and less susceptible to the big play. Norman LeJeune at SS gives LSU it’s biggest hitter in that spot in many years. Fortunately for Matt Mauck (QB), LSU returns six starters from last year, and that does not even count Dom Davis (RB) and Rob Sale (OL) who saw plenty of time in 2001. The schedule is tough with road games at Florida, Auburn and Arkansas. But I’ve picked LSU almost by default. Every other team in the West has even more questions than LSU.

The Hogs are hard to get a read on. At times, they had the worst offense I had ever seen. They scored 14 points or less 5 times last season. The Hogs D bailed them out as they went 2-3 in those five games. At other points they put serious points on the board. Matt Jones needs to be given the starting job outright. He was magnificent against Ole Miss and LSU where he showed a knack for making plays. John Thompson is gone as defensive coordinator so do expect this year’s squad to be as stingy.

Eli Manning will put up big numbers this season. Unfortunately for him, Ole Miss’ opponents will put up some big numbers against the Rebel’s D. Ole Miss must replace the talented Joe Gunn at RB but they do return experienced WR’s and offensive linemen. Papa Manning squashed the Heisman campaign which should take some pressure off Eli.

Auburn is still mired in the QB controversy which lingered at the end of last season. Daniel Cobb was granted a sixth year of eligibility and will battle sophomore Jason Campbell. Cadillac Williams will provide Auburn with a nice running game, but the late season flame out of last year troubles me. Tuberville fired his long time offensive and defensive coordinators at the end of the season. Obviously the heat is on Tuberville to produce. The schedule is a wash as the other Tigers get LSU and Georgia at home while going on the road to play Bama and Florida.

MSU will struggle again this season. But they hauled in a great recruiting class and I think Sherrill can get them back to where the Bulldogs were in 1998 when they won the SEC West. The Bulldogs return 14 starters which is key against a tough early season slate which includes road trips to Oregon, LSU and South Carolina. Kevin Fant replaces Chris Rock…er…Wayne Madkin at QB. Donte Walker is back (RB) and the defense had the 2001 season to integrate a number of JUCO transfers.

2002 SEC East Preview

With the departure of the “Evil Genius,” AKA Steve Spurrier, the SEC East takes on a new look this season. But make no mistake about it, Florida still has loads of talent and will be right in the thick of the SEC East race. But this will be the season of that ugly orange tidal wave known as the University of Tennessee. The Vols return a number of key players and the schedule is very favorable, a total of 9 games will be played inside the state Tennessee, including the Florida game. After coming up short against LSU’s best squad in over 15 years in the SEC Championship, the Vols will be hungry for an SEC title and possible National Championship. Tennessee will start 8 seniors on defense, 4 on the defensive line. Casey Clausen (QB) is a top Heisman contender and with talented Kelly Washington (WR), who torched LSU for over 250 yards last season, and a bevy of young stud running backs, the Vols will not be denied this season.

I initially picked Georgia to win the SEC East. A bit of a trendy pick but justifiable I thought. But after reviewing Georgia’s tough SEC road games, I had to reconsider. The Bulldogs play at South Carolina, at Alabama and at Auburn and play Florida in Jacksonville. Mark Richt will be at Georgia a while and will eventually break through, but just not this year. The manner in which Richt handles the Greene vs. Shockley situation at QB will be very telling on this season. Greene had a fantastic freshman year but Shockley’s abilities could be compared to Charlie Ward. The Bulldogs have no depth at RB and need to plug some big holes on the D-Line. However, anything less than 9 wins this season would be a big disappointment.

I personally will miss Steve Spurrier. He took no prisoners and regularly spoke his mind about the thugs right up the street from Gainesville, AKA the “Criminoles” or “Free Shoes University.” Florida is in good hands with coach Ron Zook. Grossman is back and the Gators will be right in the mix. Florida’s offense should have a more diversified running attack which will take some of the pressure off Grossman (another top Heisman candidate), not that he really needs it. The games against Miami, UT and FSU create a brutal schedule for a first year coach, but don’t be surprised if the Gators win at least 2 of those games. Talent abounds and the Swamp is one of the toughest places to play in the country.

South Carolina got bad news this off-season when terribly talented and terribly misguided Derek Watson was kicked off the squad in January after being arrested for possession of marijuana. (I can’t tell you how many convictions I have had for that offense in only 5 months of doing misdemeanors. Reefer Madness I say!) The Gamecocks do return one of my favorite players, Ryan Brewer. The guy is nothing to look at but is the consummate “football player.” I encourage everyone to watch this guy in his senior season. He can do it all.

Kentucky will always be a basketball school. Football is an afterthought, and this year is no different. With a rebuilt O-Line and probation hanging over this team, don’t expect too much. Jared Lorenzen is back as the biggest QB in all of football, coming in at a solid 6’4,” 275 pounds. UK will put up some serious numbers, but they will give up even more. Winning 5 games this season would be a great accomplishment.

Vanderbilt is breaking in another new coach who will try and break Vanderbilt’s current string of 19 (?) consecutive years without a bowl appearance. Don’t expect any great uprising from the Dores this year. They lost their starting QB and Vandy will always be playing teams with superior talent. Only games against Furman and UConn will keep Vanderbilt from going winless this season.

2002 SEC Forecast

East

1. Tennessee
2. Georgia
3. Florida
4. South Carolina
5. Vanderbilt
6. Kentucky

West

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
4. Ole Miss
5. Auburn
6. MSU