Thursday, August 25, 2011

SEC West

Here are my predictions for the upcoming season.  Take them with a grain of salt.  Of the 12 participants in the SEC Title game over the last six years, I have only correctly picked four. (LSU in ’05 and ’07, UT in ’07 and Florida in ’09)

SEC West

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
4. Miss. State
5. Auburn
6. Ole Miss

*Here is a break down of the 20 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.
Class    #   Record
Senior     7 5-2
Junior     8 4-4
Sophomore     5 1-4
Freshman     0 0-0

* Obviously having an upperclassman at the helm greatly increases a team's chances to win the division.  Once you actually get to Atlanta, having an upperclassman at QB is critical to victory.  The only sophomore to win in the last ten years was Georgia's David Greene in 2002.  Greene was a special player finishing his career with 42 victories, second most in NCAA history behind Colt McCoy.  By the time he started the 2002 SEC Title Game, he had 24 starts under his belt.

* Alabama has one sophomore, A.J. McCarron who has thrown 48 passes in his career, and three freshman on the roster at the quarterback position.  Sure the defense will be lights out, but is Alabama good enough to buck history and win with an untested quarterback?

* I have LSU second for two reasons.  Number one, LSU's schedule is rough and the Alabama game is on the road.  Two, while I am happy for Jarrett Lee that he is going to finally get his shot after a tough freshman season, it is unclear whether he can lead LSU to a title.  There was no way Jefferson was good enough to bring LSU a title.  But could this be a dream season for Lee?  I hope so.

* Auburn’s offensive linemen have a combined 15 starts between them, that ranks 118th in the nation.  Auburn is going to really struggle this season.  The talking heads never appreciate the importance of an experienced offensive line.

* The Knile Davis injury really hurts Arkansas.  His loss could possibly the difference between winning the division and finishing third.

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Pay for Play, part III

GREED: excessive desire, as for wealth or power

-World English Dictionary

There is a school of thought that openly paying players through a stipend would reduce cheating and end the hypocrisy that surrounds college football.  The cheating being $100 handshakes, under the table payments, extra benefits etc. and the hypocrisy of all the money involved in college football and the view of college football as a “semi-professional” football league.

The argument just doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.  Some coaches and programs are going to cheat regardless of what the players get paid.  The theory is that if the athletes get enough money to cover their school expenses, then they will turn down the cash or benefits being offered from boosters/agents/hangers on.  Get real.  You think Donald Trump with his empire is going to turn down a $100 no strings attached gift?  These athletes are still going to have their hands out NO MATTER HOW MUCH YOU GIVE THEM.

As for the issue of inequality, there is something to be said for coaches getting paid millions of dollars while the athletes are limited to NCAA regulated scholarships.  But I’ve got a news flash for you; inequality has been around since the beginning of humanity.  When the first two people on earth lived next to each other, by definition, one had to be “rich” and the other “poor.”  Again it goes back to market factors.  There are very few Nick Saban/ Bob Stoops class head coaches out there.  There are plenty of guys that can run 4.5 second 40-yard dashes and can tackle in space.  Forcing equality in a situation that a market does not demand such is inefficient and a misguided attempt at social engineering.