Sunday, November 28, 2010

The Year in Review

If Les Miles can lead LSU to a win in the bowl game, he will join Bear Bryant and Phil Fulmer as the only SEC coaches to have four 11 win seasons, quite an accomplishment.  Looking at the season as a whole, the Tigers accomplished a great deal and won 10 games.  Wins over UNC, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Florida and Alabama should not be undervalued.  LSU’s only loses were to Auburn and Arkansas.  Those 8 teams are a combined 65-22 not counting their games against LSU.  For comparison, let us look at the top 8 games for these teams:


Team Opp. Record Teams w/ Winning Record
LSU 65-22 7
Oregon 50-34 3
Stanford 50-31 4
TCU 54-33 5
Wisconsin 56-31 5
Ohio State 53-34 6
Boise State 59-26 5

It could be argued that LSU actually overachieved considering the lack of a legitimate quarterback on the team. The Tigers finished 107th in the nation in passing. Dead last in the SEC. Jefferson had to be graded out with a ‘D’ for the season. He passed for only 1253 yards and FOUR touchdowns. FOUR! He also threw 9 INT’s and multiple fumbles. Miles says he likes Jefferson because he can run. Well, on 111 carries he only averaged 3.5 yards a carry with six TD’s. Take away the 83 yard TD versus Tennessee and it goes down to 2.7 yards a carry. In total, Jefferson ranked 10th in the SEC in yards per play amongst the league’s QB’s. He accounted for only 10 TD’s while turning the ball over at least 11 times.

After Lee’s strong showing in the Tennessee game and his brilliant display in the Swamp, I did not understand the insistence on going back to Jefferson. Certainly Lee is flawed, but Jefferson will NEVER win anything of consequence for the Tigers. He is not a leader and frankly, I am just tired of his crappiness. However, unless something drastic occurs in the off season, look for more of the same from the LSU offense.

This leads to a valid criticism of Miles. In six seasons as the LSU head coach, Miles has yet to bring in a QB that would rank in the top half of the league. In 2005, the Tigers signed Ryan Perrilloux. We all know how that turned out as he was kicked off the team before the 2008 season. In 2006 the Tigers did not sign a single QB. In 2007 Miles only signed Jarrett Lee. In 2008 the only QB to sign was Jordan Jefferson. In 2009 Chris Garrett and Russell Shepard signed with LSU. Garrett transferred at the beginning of 2010 and Shepard moved to WR in is second tear on campus. In 2010, LSU again only signed one QB, Zach Lee. Lee signed with the LA Dodgers and never played a down with the Tigers.

Considering how important a QB is to the success of a football team, Miles has been GROSSLY negligent in recruiting the position. In six seasons, Miles’ “star” QB recruit is Jordan Jefferson, probably the WORST regular starter at the position in LSU history.

The offensive play calling left so much to be desired this season. LSU only scored TD’s on 52% of their drives in the red zone. Contrast that with Auburn (68%), Arkansas (71%) and South Carolina (68%). I understand that LSU’s QB’s can hamstring the play calls, but LSU’s inability to put teams away stems from the conservative play calling inside the 20. LSU tied with Army and Middle Tennessee State for DEAD LAST in the nation in red zone passing TD’s with TWO!! TWO!!

This year’s defense was solid, but not elite. The loss of DE Sam Montgomery to injury half way through the season really hurt LSU. Brandon Taylor’s absence was really felt in the Ole Miss and Arkansas games. The Tigers finished 9th nationally in scoring defense, total defense and pass defense. LSU was 17th nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. The real weakness was in the run stopping, the Tigers finished 37th in the nation and 6th in the SEC in rushing defense. Guess who finished 1st and 2nd in the league against the run. It is not a coincidence that South Carolina (1st) and Auburn (2nd) are playing in the SEC title game. Since 2002, the eventually SEC Champ has ranked no worse than 4th in the SEC in rush defense in every season except 2005. Regardless of who wins this Saturday, 6 of the last 8 SEC champs will have finished 1st or 2nd in the SEC in rushing defense. For LSU to return to the SEC Title game, the Tigers are going to have to do a better job up front.

Drake Nevis and Pep Levingston will play their final games in LSU upcoming bowl. The Tigers have recruited well, thus it will be up to the defensive coaches to make the transition seamless. Kelvin Sheppard and Patrick Peterson are also gone but again, LSU has recruited well so there are players who can step up. My hope is that there is more depth at the LB position next season.

I expect the offensive line to get better as LSU only loses one starter. At WR, the Tigers lose Terrance Tolliver, but Randle will be back, and I expect Shepard to improve and one of Chris Tolliver, Kadrone Boone or Jarrett Fobbs to step up. At RB, the Tigers are loaded starting with Stevan Ridley. Although not a game breaker, he is great between the tackles and runs as if his life depends upon it.

10-2 is solid, but if the Tigers had an actual college level QB, who knows how special this season could have been.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

192...in a row?!

A streak is going to end today.  It is not a well known streak or all that important to many people outside of the Traylor Clan.  But my dad, William Traylor, has attended every LSU home game since October 23, 1982.  Ironically enough, that was the first game I ever attended.

Last week’s victory over Alabama was a landmark win by Les Miles.  With so many questions looming over the program after two disappointing season, Miles needed this win to show the LSU faithful that the program was heading in the right direction and on sound footing.  In season six, with all his own players, LSU and Miles out played and outcoached the Crimson Tide. 

LSU will be 9-1 after this week.  Miles needs to finish strong and build off the good will he has generated this season.  If the Tigers win out they will play in a BCS bowl for the third time under Miles.  Considering how poor the offense has been, that would be an amazing accomplishment.

Monday, November 01, 2010

LSU v. Alabama

I wish I could be more optimistic, but I don’t give LSU much of a chance this weekend against Alabama.  I expect a close game, but ultimately a Tide victory.

Do you trust Jefferson to protect the ball?

Do you think Jefferson will generate any points on his drives?

Do you think Les Miles and staff will make better adjustments than Saban and his staff at halftime?

Raise your hand if just answered “NO” to all the questions above.  I have ZERO faith in Jefferson.  LSU's offensive staff has struggled all season and Alabama is not the type of team to get things turned around against.

LSU can win this game, but they must do the following:

*Generate at least 10 points from the defense and special teams, be it long returns or a defensive score.

*Win the turnover battle.

*Jarrett Lee needs to duplicate his game at Florida.

*Defense must bounce back to regular form.  

Les Miles is 4-5 in November over the last two seasons.  Despite the strong 7-1 start, Miles needs to make sure this season doesn’t unravel.  The last two years, the Tigers have noticeably slump after getting knocked out of the SEC West race.  This is not a must win for Miles, but knocking off Saban and ending Bama’s National Title hopes would be an enormous boost for “The Hat.”  Miles is 14-1 after a loss in his time at LSU, make it 15-1 and the LSU faithful will be all smiles, for one week at least.