Johnny Football Travels to Death Valley

Johnny Football makes his first and probably final appearance at LSU this Saturday. LSU bottled him up last season but don’t expect a repeat of that performance. A few keys to the game (some cut and paste from 2 weeks ago):

* LSU must be able to run the ball. Under Les, the Tigers are 87-9 when they rush for 100 yards or more.

* The offense must click early. Les Miles is 64-6 at LSU when leading after the first quarter.

* The secondary is going to have to come up with at least 2 turnovers. The Tigers won’t force many punts, so turnovers and red zone defense are keys.

* Get off the field on 3rd down. Given what we have seen this year, I would be in favor of more risk taking by Chavis and crew on 3rd downs; we need to take some chances to create a big play.

LSU has played much better at home this season and is 13-1 in SEC home games since 2010. The Tigers are 31-2 in all home games since 2009. Those two loses were to Florida and Alabama, both ranked #1 in the country at the time of those games. Miles is 22-1 after a loss at LSU and has a career record of 4-2 versus A&M.

This is going to be a shootout, but look for LSU to make just a few more plays than A&M in the 4th quarter.


LSU 45 – A&M 42

Tigers Fade as Tide Rolls

For 40 minutes the LSU Tigers played the Alabama Crimson Tide to a standstill. Despite two first half turnovers, LSU and Alabama stood tied at 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. But befitting the mark of a championship team, Alabama proceeded to grind out three touchdowns while keeping LSU scoreless the rest of the way, final score Alabama 38- LSU 17.

Offense

* Z Mett is a warrior. He was harassed all night but finished 16 for 23 with 241 yards, 1 TD and ZERO INT’s.

* The offensive line again stunk against a good team. In LSU’s three losses, all on the road, the Tigers have averaged 78 yards per game, 2.29 yards per carry and have given up 11 sacks. You cannot win in the SEC with numbers like that. Miles needs to take a very hard look at the offensive line coach Greg Strudrawa.

* You cannot fumble on the one yard line going in to open the game 7-0, just a terrible mistake by Copeland.

* Not sure why Terrence Magee got so many carries on Saturday. He’s very good, but Hill is your bell cow, run him.

Defense

* The defense played very well in the first half. The second half was another story. Alabama scored touchdowns on 5 long drives pummeling the Tiger’s defense in the process.

* The numbers on LSU’s three road losses are not pretty:

1. Opponents scored 36 points per game

2. Opponents gained and average 188 yards on the ground

3. Opponents averaged 463 yards of offense

4. Minus 3 in turnover margin

* LSU was smashed between the tackles Saturday night.

Alabama is an excellent team and executed at a very high level. It is a tribute to Saban that he has his players ready to go every single week. Tiger fans need to relax and understand that Alabama is doing this to everyone and the Tide are in the midst of a potential unprecedented 3 consecutive national titles.

There needs to be improvement as LSU prepares for Texas A&M. The offense will have to win this game because I have zero faith in the defense withstanding the Johnny Football onslaught. Enjoy the games this weekend and get ready for a wild shootout on November 23.

Bama Week

It’s Bama week. If LSU can win this one, all will be forgiven.

What to look for on offense:

* LSU must be able to run the ball. Under Les, the Tigers are 87-9 when they rush for 100 yards or more.

* The offense must click early. Les Miles is 64-6 at LSU when leading after the first quarter.

* Z Mett must protect the ball. He has thrown 5 INT’s in last two games. LSU can’t win if they turn the ball over.

* Last year Les called a few plays that cost the Tigers. He needs to get a better feel of the flow of this game to decide when and if to gamble.

What to look for on defense:

* When LSU blitzes, they have to get to McCarron. LSU is going to need big negative plays to stop Alabama. They won’t be able to just go toe to toe and stop Bama’s offensive drives.

* The secondary is going to have to come up with at least 2 turnovers. If these blitzes do indeed bring pressure, the secondary is going to have to CATCH THE BALL when the opportunity presents itself.

* Get off the field on 3rd down. Given what we have seen this year, I would be in favor of more risk taking by Chavis and crew on 3rd downs. We are not strong enough or experienced enough to play straight up; we need to take some chances.

What to expect from Alabama:

* Ground and pound and occasionally go up top. Alabama is averaging 39 rushes and 29 passes per game in their 5 SEC games. The Crimson Tide lead the league in yards per play with 7.79.

* On defense, Alabama has been suffocating giving up only 11.8 points a game in 5 SEC contests. Take out the A&M game and it goes down to 4.25 points per game.

* I would add this little caveat though, Alabama was shredded by Manziel. The other 4 SEC games were against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas. They are ranked 47, 87, 92 and 108 respectively in scoring offense. They failed utterly against the one true potent offense they faced.

What will happen:

This series has been dominated by the road team going back to 1982. Since that break through victory over Bear Bryant in Alabama by Jerry Stovall’s Tigers, the road team has an amazing 22-8-1 record. LSU is 9-5 versus Alabama since 2000 (Miles is 5-4 versus Bama).

This game will play out like most of the games in the series, a tight contest marked by one team making plays in the fourth quarter to “secure victory.” LSU will play well, but this is the #1 team in country with the #1 coach on the sidelines.

LSU 24 – Alabama 34