Mixed thoughts on Miles

Dennis Dodd's thoughts about Les

Bleacher Report article on Miles

You have to look at the source when reading these articles.  The writer in the Bleacher Report refers to the SEC as the "South Eastern Conference."  Are you kidding?  Some guy who doesn't know that the proper name of the SEC is the Southeastern Conference is going to then state that Miles is gone after 8-4?  I notice he failed to mention the $14-$15 million buy out.  Who is going to pay that?

Furthermore, Burton says, "in typical Les Miles fashion, he may continue to lose one he shouldn't..."  Miles has been at LSU for five years, outside of the loss to Arkansas in 2008, where are these "typical losses?" Please readers, tell me where LSU was heavily favored and lost a game the experts picked them to win.

I accept that Miles has his short comings and they cost LSU the Ole Miss game.  I also accept that some people want Miles gone, even if he were to win the SEC Title.  I just think any discussion should be based on facts and reality, not some wild notion that LSU is one of the elites of college football where anything less than 10 wins a year is a failure.  LSU has NEVER been that school and with the SEC as deep as it is, may NEVER be that school in the future.

SEC Media Days

A few LSU notes from SEC Media Days...

More SEC Media Day coverage...

"Truths" & "Myths" cont.

Yesterday I addressed the question of Jefferson's efficiency during the 2009 season. There were some legitimate observations posted on the comments that got me thinking. Given Jefferson's solid numbers, why wasn't he more effective? I looked at more 2009 stats, specifically, the TOTAL plays from the SEC's top QB's and came away with some interesting numbers. Again, only conference games are referenced.

Player	School	Plays	Yards/Play
Jefferson	LSU	293	5.3
Tebow	Florida	360	6.0
McElroy	Alabama	266	6.7
Mallet	Arkansas	316	6.8
Todd	Auburn	227	5.3
Cox	Georgia	239	7.4
Garcia	South Carolina	380	5.7

(All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com)

In all fairness to his detractors, when the sacks and rushing attempts are factored in, Jefferson's yards per play average is relatively poor compared to the other top SEC quarterbacks. For LSU to thrive, he must be more productive with the ball in his hands in 2010.

Thanks for reading and the feedback.

LSU 2010

Summer Reading

LSU Preview from College Football News

LSU Preview from Athlons

Preview of LSU v. UNC opener

Welcome Back

September 4, 2010 is still six weeks away, but college football season is rapidly approaching.  I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming season as we go along, but in the interim, I will post a few nuggets and other (hopefully) interesting stuff.

For a stats junkie like me, it doesn’t get any better than this College Football Stats page.  Just like reading a horse racing form, I am hoping to pore through all of the data to discover some underlying truths to help explain prior results and also to debunk some commonly held assumptions and conclusions that just don’t hold up under scrutiny.  Here are three “myths” and “truths” that bare a closer look under the stats microscope.  All of the stats reference conference games only.

1. LSU’s defense was on the field way too much.  This “bend but don’t break philosophy doesn’t work.”

Now I will agree that at times it seemed the defense was always on the field, but the stats create an interesting picture.  LSU’s defense was on the field for 545 plays in 2009, 4^th most in the conference.  Would you believe that Alabama’s vaunted defense had 560 plays, 2^nd most in the SEC?  LSU’s defense was only on the field two plays more per game than Florida.  Furthermore, LSU gave up only 4.8 yards per play, ranking 3^rd.  Alabama and Florida led the conference at 4.5 yards per play.

2. Jordan Jefferson is the problem on offense.

Compare these four QB’s:

1. QB “A” – Comp % 54, TD’s 14, INT’s 7, Rating 118.39
2. QB “B” – Comp % 58, TD’s 11, INT’s 8, Rating 128.48
3. QB “C” – Comp % 52, TD’s 11, INT’s 8, Rating 118.42
4. QB “D” – Comp % 62, TD’s  9, INT’s 4,  Rating 130.65

Quarterback A was a 5^th year senior and won a National Championship that season.  Quarterback B was a redshirt sophomore who eventually went on to become the #1 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.  Quarterback C was a true sophomore who eventually went on to be the #1 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.  Quarterback D will be starting for LSU against UNC on September 4^th.  We are talking about Matt Flynn, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford and Jordan Jefferson.

At this point in their careers, Jefferson stacks up very well.  He has a better rating and the fewest turnovers.  Furthermore, 2009 saw the worst offensive line in the past decade at LSU.  Jefferson absolutely needs to improve, but let us place blame where it belongs, on the large shoulders on the O-line.

3. Winning the “turnover battle” is just coach speak.

The last three SEC Champs have all finished first in the league in turnover margin.  Since 2004, the lowest turnover margin by the eventual champion was the 2004 Auburn team that went undefeated.  The Tigers finished at +1, ranked 5^th in the conference.

Thanks to cfbstats.com for all of the data.  Priceless.