Thursday, September 24, 2009
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Who is LSU?
Statistically, LSU has the worst offense in the conference. You knew it was bad, but not this bad. The Tigers are only churning out 325 yards a game. EVEN VANDERBILT IS GAINING MORE YARDS PER GAME!!! Compare that with two years ago when LSU was averaging 439 yards a game. What’s the problem?
1. The offensive line is not very good. Cleary this is NOT a power running football team. The holes have not been there. The longest run this season was 21 yards by Charles Scott. We are one quarter of the way through the season and Scott has ZERO TD’s.
2. Jordan Jefferson has a LONG way to go to become an effective SEC QB. The call went out last week to see the deep passing game. It doesn’t exist. From a purely ascetic point of view, Jefferson throws and UGLY ball. That quail is wobbling all over the place. From an execution stand point, he doesn’t put enough air under the ball on deep passes to let the receivers run under it. His timing is off as well; he waits too long many times to throw deep passes. The game plan specifically called for a number of deep routes and he couldn’t deliver.
3. Jefferson’s shortcomings are not debilitating to the offense per se, but the offensive line has got to begin to gel. If LSU is to run a ball control offense focused on running and short to intermediate passes, the O-line must get better at run blocking.
4. Let me throw some numbers at you. LSU ranks 43rd in the country in yards per rushing attempt. The Tigers rank 80th in yards per passing attempt. Contrast that with Alabama which ranks 12th and 16th respectively.
5. Here are some more numbers. Auburn is averaging 79 offensive plays per game. LSU is averaging 63. LSU is 11th in the SEC in offensive plays per game. The Tigers’ slower tempo on offense plays a large part of this, but only a part.
6. The play calling and game planning thus far this season have been very interesting. In his post game comments, Doug Moreau mentioned that LSU does not have an identity yet on offense. I agree. He went on further to say that the LSU staff must have a method to their madness; he just didn’t know what it was.
7. Let me take a stab at it. I have a feeling that the coaching staff is running certain plays to see how Jefferson does. Obviously they want to move the ball, but I think the staff may be taking a “big picture” view of the season. Let’s see what we are good at; let’s see what works, but don’t tip our hand too much. Leave the other staffs guessing what we will do when we get to the heart of the season. The only way this was possible was because the schedule set up very nicely. Bring the offense along slowly and stay patient. Mississippi State will be a challenge, so I expect a more “well defined” game plan. But don’t look for the offense to really open up until Georgia.
Defensively, the Tigers are looking a little better, but there are issues.
1. The D-line does not generate a pass rush. LSU is ranked 67th in the country in sacks and 70th in tackles for loss. The defensive line has not been as good as I expected.
2. As I mentioned last week, much is expected of the LB’s in this defense. Not surprisingly, the top three tacklers on the team are Harry Coleman, Kelvin Sheppard and Perry Riley. There seems to be improvement each week with this group.
3. LSU is ranked 19th is pass efficiency defense. The Tigers have 4 INT’s already as compared to 8 all of last season. Opponents are only completing 50% of their passes against the Tigers.
4. The defense has forced only seven ‘3 and outs’ this season. Compare that with Alabama which forced North Texas into seven ‘3 and outs’ this weekend alone and 16 for the season.
5. The Tigers are +3 in turnover margin.
Special teams were solid but not spectacular.
1. LSU ranks dead last in KO returns in all of college football. But the Tigers’ average starting field position after KO’s is the 32 yard line. I don’t know how that stacks up against others in the conference, but it is not terrible by any means.
2. It is VERY good to know that Jasper can hit a 52 yard FG.
3. Helton seems to have found his groove punting. He kicked 4 times for an average of 44 yards per punt. Bravo! As an interesting side note, LSU is tied for first in the nation for fewest punts on the season.
4. Holliday ranks 44th nationally in punt returns.
So what does all this mean?
I don’t think we can read this team yet. LSU could finish anywhere between 12-0 (try not to laugh) and 8-4 (try not to cry). Clearly this team has plenty of potential, but they must continue to improve to achieve anything this season. A win this weekend would push the Tigers to 2-0 in the conference and 4-0 overall, exactly where they were last season. My gut says LSU probably finishes 9-3, grinding out victories all season. The matchup with Georgia on October 3rd will be a measuring stick game. Let’s hold judgment until then.
1. The offensive line is not very good. Cleary this is NOT a power running football team. The holes have not been there. The longest run this season was 21 yards by Charles Scott. We are one quarter of the way through the season and Scott has ZERO TD’s.
2. Jordan Jefferson has a LONG way to go to become an effective SEC QB. The call went out last week to see the deep passing game. It doesn’t exist. From a purely ascetic point of view, Jefferson throws and UGLY ball. That quail is wobbling all over the place. From an execution stand point, he doesn’t put enough air under the ball on deep passes to let the receivers run under it. His timing is off as well; he waits too long many times to throw deep passes. The game plan specifically called for a number of deep routes and he couldn’t deliver.
3. Jefferson’s shortcomings are not debilitating to the offense per se, but the offensive line has got to begin to gel. If LSU is to run a ball control offense focused on running and short to intermediate passes, the O-line must get better at run blocking.
4. Let me throw some numbers at you. LSU ranks 43rd in the country in yards per rushing attempt. The Tigers rank 80th in yards per passing attempt. Contrast that with Alabama which ranks 12th and 16th respectively.
5. Here are some more numbers. Auburn is averaging 79 offensive plays per game. LSU is averaging 63. LSU is 11th in the SEC in offensive plays per game. The Tigers’ slower tempo on offense plays a large part of this, but only a part.
6. The play calling and game planning thus far this season have been very interesting. In his post game comments, Doug Moreau mentioned that LSU does not have an identity yet on offense. I agree. He went on further to say that the LSU staff must have a method to their madness; he just didn’t know what it was.
7. Let me take a stab at it. I have a feeling that the coaching staff is running certain plays to see how Jefferson does. Obviously they want to move the ball, but I think the staff may be taking a “big picture” view of the season. Let’s see what we are good at; let’s see what works, but don’t tip our hand too much. Leave the other staffs guessing what we will do when we get to the heart of the season. The only way this was possible was because the schedule set up very nicely. Bring the offense along slowly and stay patient. Mississippi State will be a challenge, so I expect a more “well defined” game plan. But don’t look for the offense to really open up until Georgia.
Defensively, the Tigers are looking a little better, but there are issues.
1. The D-line does not generate a pass rush. LSU is ranked 67th in the country in sacks and 70th in tackles for loss. The defensive line has not been as good as I expected.
2. As I mentioned last week, much is expected of the LB’s in this defense. Not surprisingly, the top three tacklers on the team are Harry Coleman, Kelvin Sheppard and Perry Riley. There seems to be improvement each week with this group.
3. LSU is ranked 19th is pass efficiency defense. The Tigers have 4 INT’s already as compared to 8 all of last season. Opponents are only completing 50% of their passes against the Tigers.
4. The defense has forced only seven ‘3 and outs’ this season. Compare that with Alabama which forced North Texas into seven ‘3 and outs’ this weekend alone and 16 for the season.
5. The Tigers are +3 in turnover margin.
Special teams were solid but not spectacular.
1. LSU ranks dead last in KO returns in all of college football. But the Tigers’ average starting field position after KO’s is the 32 yard line. I don’t know how that stacks up against others in the conference, but it is not terrible by any means.2. It is VERY good to know that Jasper can hit a 52 yard FG.
3. Helton seems to have found his groove punting. He kicked 4 times for an average of 44 yards per punt. Bravo! As an interesting side note, LSU is tied for first in the nation for fewest punts on the season.
4. Holliday ranks 44th nationally in punt returns.
So what does all this mean?
I don’t think we can read this team yet. LSU could finish anywhere between 12-0 (try not to laugh) and 8-4 (try not to cry). Clearly this team has plenty of potential, but they must continue to improve to achieve anything this season. A win this weekend would push the Tigers to 2-0 in the conference and 4-0 overall, exactly where they were last season. My gut says LSU probably finishes 9-3, grinding out victories all season. The matchup with Georgia on October 3rd will be a measuring stick game. Let’s hold judgment until then.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Last Week's Odds and Ends
Sorry this is so late...was a little busy this week
*Talk about wild. In the first 20 minutes of the game, Georgia Tech and Clemson combined for four TD’s.
GT – 82 yard TD run.
GT – 85 yard punt return.
GT – 34 yard fake FG pass for a TD.
Clemson – 63 yard TD pass.
Dandy game.
*Lou Holtz – suck it old man!! Notre Shame 34 – UM 38.
*Not Ready for Prime Time II – Tennessee and Lame Kiffin. It’s a little tougher when you have to play someone with a pulse. You think losing to UCLA hurts? Welcome to the Swamp. Pissing in Urban’s cereal bowl is not a good idea.
*Same Old Song and Dance – Big non conference game, Suckeyes come up short. USC drives down the field late to score and take the lead for good. OSU has lost six straight versus top 5 ranked teams. I still don’t get all the hype about Terrelle Pryor. Think about this, if OSU doesn’t get the GIFT pass interference call against Miami in the 2002 title game, what is Tressell’s legacy at this point?
*Same Old Song and Dance II – USC knows how to win the big ones. They may stub their toe this season, but it won’t be against any of the top teams on the schedule.
*The National Champion will come from this pool of teams – Florida, Texas and USC. No one else is even close. I know the Trojans only won by 3, but consider they went on the road with a true freshman QB and still won tells me all a great deal. Florida and Texas should ROLL through the season.
*Two weeks into the season, we have had four teams ranked in the top 10 lose. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and OSU. Poser Material!
*LSU is ranked 7th by the coaches and 9th in the AP poll. The argument could be made that LSU is undeserving of such lofty status. I would not necessarily disagree. The problem is, who are you going to put up there? If you take LSU out of the top 10, here are your candidates:
OSU – This is a good team, but there are serious offensive issues.
Oklahoma – No Sam Bradford. Nuff, said.
Georgia Tech – After watching LSU dominate that offense in the Peach Bowl and the performance against Clemson, I’m not sold.
Virginia Tech – See Ohio State.
TCU – Good team, but top 10?
Oklahoma State – Just got beat by 10 at home by Houston.
The point is, after the big four of Florida, Bama, USC and Texas, you can throw everyone else in a pot. The Tigers are a work in progress, as is the rest of the country.
*The other thing to take from the start of this season is that we need to look at teams and not necessarily conferences. Across the board you will see quality in each conference along with potential bottom feeders.
*Talk about wild. In the first 20 minutes of the game, Georgia Tech and Clemson combined for four TD’s.
GT – 82 yard TD run.
GT – 85 yard punt return.
GT – 34 yard fake FG pass for a TD.
Clemson – 63 yard TD pass.
Dandy game.
*Oh Sparty, how can you live with yourself? After giving up a late score you hold off the Might Chippewas as they go for two to retain a 1 point lead with only a few seconds left. Bu then you let Central Michigan recover the onside kick. You force your smaller neighbor from up the street to kick a 47 yard game-winning field goal, which they miss. But out of the kindness of your heart you give the Chips a second chance by jumping off side. At this point, your fate was sealed. From a thousand miles away I knew that the kick from 42 yards was going in.
*Lou Holtz – suck it old man!! Notre Shame 34 – UM 38.*Not Ready for Prime Time – Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy. After getting a huge win over Georgia last week, the Cowboys sleep walk against Houston and give up 45 points to lose by ten, at home no less. JC, you still think Gundy is better than Miles?
*Not Ready for Prime Time II – Tennessee and Lame Kiffin. It’s a little tougher when you have to play someone with a pulse. You think losing to UCLA hurts? Welcome to the Swamp. Pissing in Urban’s cereal bowl is not a good idea.
*Same Old Song and Dance – Big non conference game, Suckeyes come up short. USC drives down the field late to score and take the lead for good. OSU has lost six straight versus top 5 ranked teams. I still don’t get all the hype about Terrelle Pryor. Think about this, if OSU doesn’t get the GIFT pass interference call against Miami in the 2002 title game, what is Tressell’s legacy at this point?
*Same Old Song and Dance II – USC knows how to win the big ones. They may stub their toe this season, but it won’t be against any of the top teams on the schedule.
*The National Champion will come from this pool of teams – Florida, Texas and USC. No one else is even close. I know the Trojans only won by 3, but consider they went on the road with a true freshman QB and still won tells me all a great deal. Florida and Texas should ROLL through the season.
*Two weeks into the season, we have had four teams ranked in the top 10 lose. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and OSU. Poser Material!
*LSU is ranked 7th by the coaches and 9th in the AP poll. The argument could be made that LSU is undeserving of such lofty status. I would not necessarily disagree. The problem is, who are you going to put up there? If you take LSU out of the top 10, here are your candidates:
OSU – This is a good team, but there are serious offensive issues.
Oklahoma – No Sam Bradford. Nuff, said.
Georgia Tech – After watching LSU dominate that offense in the Peach Bowl and the performance against Clemson, I’m not sold.
Virginia Tech – See Ohio State.
TCU – Good team, but top 10?
Oklahoma State – Just got beat by 10 at home by Houston.
The point is, after the big four of Florida, Bama, USC and Texas, you can throw everyone else in a pot. The Tigers are a work in progress, as is the rest of the country.
*The other thing to take from the start of this season is that we need to look at teams and not necessarily conferences. Across the board you will see quality in each conference along with potential bottom feeders.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Defense Leads the Way
*Defense was very good. The Tiger defense gave up only 7 points and 210 yards in the entire game. Take out the one scoring drive and Vandy managed only 130 yards. Vanderbilt was only 4-15 on third down conversions, a far cry from Washington’s proficiency of last week. However, the learning curve is still steep for some of these guys. On Vanderbilt’s only TD, QB Larry Smith ran a read option play. LSU’s DE Chancey Aghayere crashed down on the RB without even looking at Smith who fumbled the ball but was so alone that he was able to pick the ball back up and trot into the endzone. Overall, I’d have to grade the defense out as an A-, a stark improvement over last week’s D-.
*While LSU’s defensive line needs work, it appears the biggest weakness is at linebacker. The LB’s under Chavis’ system are expected to carry a heavy work load and I am not sure the current cast is up to snuff. Kelvin Sheppard can make plays, but he misses a lot of tackles and appears out of position at times. I am sure learning a new system takes a great deal of practice and dedication, but I am not sure Sheppard is a good enough football player to become anything more than serviceable to this team.
*The offensive line has not impressed me. The holes just aren’t there like they were last year. The pass protection is OK, but not great.
*The receivers don’t do great jobs of blocking. One of the keys to big running plays is the blocking by the WR corps. Too many times I saw WR completely flailing out in space and missing their blocks. The bubble screen only works if the WRs make blocks.
*I know they are bringing Jefferson along slowly, but I’d like to see a bit more of a vertical passing game implemented. Vanderbilt dared the Tigers to go downfield and was successful in crowding the line of scrimmage.
*Speaking of Jefferson, he does a great job of running the offense. Sure he needs polish, but in his last four games he is 56 of 94 for 595 yards, 6 TD’s and ZERO interceptions. I don’t want to jinx him, but I wonder who holds the LSU record for most consecutive pass attempts without an interception.
*RJ Jackson looked good. I would guess the majority of LSU fans saw #28 out there and said, “Who is that guy? Where’s he been?” I thought Ruben Randall would have wrapped up the 3rd WR spot, but obviously the 5th year senior Jackson has his own ideas.
*Finally, the pre-game video on the big screen at Tiger Stadium was AWFUL!! Whoever designed that junk needs to rethink his career.
Monday, September 07, 2009
Week 1 Random Thoughts
*Terrelle Pryor will be a great college QB, but he’s got a very funky throwing motion. Many of his passes look like ugly floaters. OSU looked pretty tame against Navy. I know USC is next so the Suckeyes were probably looking ahead, but come on. Championship teams look much sharper than this. BTW: Terrelle Pryor just needs to shut up and play football...
*Greg Paulus looked great for Syracuse, up until he threw a terrible interception in OT. Guy hasn’t played football in four years then comes in and looks like a 5th year senior. Oh wait, he is a 5th year senior.
*Penn State looked very good. Same goes for the Mighty Spartans, Michigan and Northwestern. I now it’s Akron, Montana State, Towson St. and Western Mich, but they all looked sharp.
* The MSU front office needs to pay Dantonio whatever he wants. That guy will win a Big 10 Title before he leaves East Lansing.
*The Big 10 still looks mediocre on the whole. Iowa needed TWO last second blocked FG to beat a I-AA team. OSU barely survived Navy. Indiana beat I-AA Eastern Kentucky by 5. Minnesota was forced into overtime before beating Syracuse. Illinois got drilled by Mizzu. Wisconsin had to hold off Northern Illinois to win by 8.
*If Ron Zook doesn’t make a bowl this season, he needs to go. They looked terrible against Missouri.
*If he does get run, the Illini need to sprint down the road to Cincinnati. Brian Kelly has done a fantastic job with the Bearcats.
*Speaking of the Nati, they went into New Jersey and laid down a Tony Soprano style beating on Rutgers. Looks like the Big Least is Cincinnati's for the taking.
*The Big 10 looks downright unstoppable compared to the ACC. The ACC was 0-4 versus BCS conference teams. Virginia and Duke even lost to I-AA teams! Stay tuned!
*BYU is pretty good. I know Bradford got knocked out, but BYU is the real deal.
*That Alabama v. Virginia Tech game was great. Tech's offense is awful, but they stayed in the game until the very end. I have to tip my hat to Saban, as of right now, Bama looks to be the best team in the West.
*I am writing this as I watch the FSU v. Miami game. It is 31-24 FSU with 9:30 left in the 4th quarter. Damn it's good to have college football back.
*I love the guy in the Miller High Life commercials...
*Guys, do yourself a favor and check out this dude's blog on Sports Illustrated's web site. I was so distracted I don't even know if the blog makes sense.
*Greg Paulus looked great for Syracuse, up until he threw a terrible interception in OT. Guy hasn’t played football in four years then comes in and looks like a 5th year senior. Oh wait, he is a 5th year senior.
*Penn State looked very good. Same goes for the Mighty Spartans, Michigan and Northwestern. I now it’s Akron, Montana State, Towson St. and Western Mich, but they all looked sharp.
*The Big 10 still looks mediocre on the whole. Iowa needed TWO last second blocked FG to beat a I-AA team. OSU barely survived Navy. Indiana beat I-AA Eastern Kentucky by 5. Minnesota was forced into overtime before beating Syracuse. Illinois got drilled by Mizzu. Wisconsin had to hold off Northern Illinois to win by 8.
*If Ron Zook doesn’t make a bowl this season, he needs to go. They looked terrible against Missouri.
*If he does get run, the Illini need to sprint down the road to Cincinnati. Brian Kelly has done a fantastic job with the Bearcats.
*Speaking of the Nati, they went into New Jersey and laid down a Tony Soprano style beating on Rutgers. Looks like the Big Least is Cincinnati's for the taking.
*The Big 10 looks downright unstoppable compared to the ACC. The ACC was 0-4 versus BCS conference teams. Virginia and Duke even lost to I-AA teams! Stay tuned!
*BYU is pretty good. I know Bradford got knocked out, but BYU is the real deal.
*That Alabama v. Virginia Tech game was great. Tech's offense is awful, but they stayed in the game until the very end. I have to tip my hat to Saban, as of right now, Bama looks to be the best team in the West.
*I am writing this as I watch the FSU v. Miami game. It is 31-24 FSU with 9:30 left in the 4th quarter. Damn it's good to have college football back.
*I love the guy in the Miller High Life commercials...
*Guys, do yourself a favor and check out this dude's blog on Sports Illustrated's web site. I was so distracted I don't even know if the blog makes sense.
Sunday, September 06, 2009
1-0 baby...
This weekend’s LSU game was rough on fans but leaves tons of material for an amateur writer/blogger. Where to begin? I try to stay positive, so we will start with the good stuff.
*LSU won. DO NOT DOWNPLAY THIS FACT. It was ugly at times and the defense stunk (more on that in a minute), but we went up the Seattle and won the game.
*Jordan Jefferson was very efficient. 11 for 19, 172 yards and 3 TD’s. He ran the ball 8 times for 42 yards as well. I would like to see the staff get him out of the pocket more though. He was very effective running the option and the QB inside read play.
*This was a coming out party for Terrance Tolliver. 4 catches for 117 yards and 2 TD’s. This is a great sign and will only help alleviate the pressure on Lafell.
*Special teams weren’t special, but there were no miscues. No botched snaps, no kicks blocked and no big returns by Washington. On Washington’s four kickoffs, LSU returned the ball on average to about the 35 yard line. LSU’s KO coverage was pretty strong.
*The Tigers were only penalized 3 times Saturday. Contrast that with Washington’s 11, Bama’s 10, Oklahoma State’s 15 or Mississippi State’s 12.
*Instead of giving away a pick-6, Jacob Cutrera picked off Locker in the first quarter and put LSU up for good. The Tigers never trailed the final 50 minutes of the game.
Now for the bad stuff:
*If not for Cutrera’s pick-6, I would grade the defense out as a D minus. Washington was 11 of 19 on third down conversions. The defense could not get off the field. Numerous times LSU got ahead in down and distance only to give up a third and long pass. It reminded me of Lou Tepper and Pelini’s first few games at LSU. That zone was very soft. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel that man coverage is in LSU’s DNA. We have such great athletes that we should just let them play. Combine that with some poor tackling and you had the most yards given up by an LSU defense in a long time.
*3rd and long killed LSU. In the first half, UW converted on a 3rd and 12, a 2nd and goal from the 17, a 3rd and 14, a 3rd and 8 and a 3rd and 9. Husky quarterback Jake Locker completed 8-of-11 passes for 137 yards on third downs alone. He also ran for 40 yards on five third-down carries. To their credit, in the second half, the Tigers gave up only a 3rd and 10 conversion and a 3rd and 12 on the final drive after the game had been decided.
*The front four generated ZERO pass rush for the most part. LSU had 8 tackles for loss, which actually surprised me, but many of these were in the second half against the run.
*Derek Helton STUNK. Four punts for an average of 32 yards per punt is garbage. Amongst players with at least four punts this weekend he ranks second to last. This has got to be fixed. This guy is on scholarship which is even more frustrating.
*The offensive line looked a little discombobulated at times. It may take a few games for this unit to find its rhythm.
*The offensive play calling left a lot to be desired as well. LSU’s strength was its speed on the corner which was not exploited. Most everything was between the tackles which UW bottled up well. We didn’t see any screens, misdirection or draw plays form Crowton. Play calling was very vanilla. Maybe this was by design.
My thoughts:
*LSU may have been a little fatigued from a tough fall camp. Combine that with the 2,600 mile trip and a game starting at 9:30 local and you have the ingredients for a tough night.
*Chavis and the defensive staff were at a bit of a disadvantage because there was no game film to study. Sarkisian was at USC for a number of years, but USC has never had a duel threat QB like Locker. Give UW credit, they came out prepared and executed.
*LSU never really adjusted to the sky kicks on the kickoffs. I would like to see more from this unit.
*I like Jefferson running, but he needs to avoid these big licks. OUCH!
*The offensive line struggled at time, but should get much better as the year goes along. Ask Oklahoma and Oregon about breaking in new guys to the O-line to open the season.
*LSU won. DO NOT DOWNPLAY THIS FACT. It was ugly at times and the defense stunk (more on that in a minute), but we went up the Seattle and won the game.
*This was a coming out party for Terrance Tolliver. 4 catches for 117 yards and 2 TD’s. This is a great sign and will only help alleviate the pressure on Lafell.
*Special teams weren’t special, but there were no miscues. No botched snaps, no kicks blocked and no big returns by Washington. On Washington’s four kickoffs, LSU returned the ball on average to about the 35 yard line. LSU’s KO coverage was pretty strong.
*The Tigers were only penalized 3 times Saturday. Contrast that with Washington’s 11, Bama’s 10, Oklahoma State’s 15 or Mississippi State’s 12.
*Instead of giving away a pick-6, Jacob Cutrera picked off Locker in the first quarter and put LSU up for good. The Tigers never trailed the final 50 minutes of the game.
Now for the bad stuff:
*If not for Cutrera’s pick-6, I would grade the defense out as a D minus. Washington was 11 of 19 on third down conversions. The defense could not get off the field. Numerous times LSU got ahead in down and distance only to give up a third and long pass. It reminded me of Lou Tepper and Pelini’s first few games at LSU. That zone was very soft. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel that man coverage is in LSU’s DNA. We have such great athletes that we should just let them play. Combine that with some poor tackling and you had the most yards given up by an LSU defense in a long time.
*3rd and long killed LSU. In the first half, UW converted on a 3rd and 12, a 2nd and goal from the 17, a 3rd and 14, a 3rd and 8 and a 3rd and 9. Husky quarterback Jake Locker completed 8-of-11 passes for 137 yards on third downs alone. He also ran for 40 yards on five third-down carries. To their credit, in the second half, the Tigers gave up only a 3rd and 10 conversion and a 3rd and 12 on the final drive after the game had been decided.
*The front four generated ZERO pass rush for the most part. LSU had 8 tackles for loss, which actually surprised me, but many of these were in the second half against the run.
*Derek Helton STUNK. Four punts for an average of 32 yards per punt is garbage. Amongst players with at least four punts this weekend he ranks second to last. This has got to be fixed. This guy is on scholarship which is even more frustrating.
*The offensive line looked a little discombobulated at times. It may take a few games for this unit to find its rhythm.
*The offensive play calling left a lot to be desired as well. LSU’s strength was its speed on the corner which was not exploited. Most everything was between the tackles which UW bottled up well. We didn’t see any screens, misdirection or draw plays form Crowton. Play calling was very vanilla. Maybe this was by design.
My thoughts:
*LSU may have been a little fatigued from a tough fall camp. Combine that with the 2,600 mile trip and a game starting at 9:30 local and you have the ingredients for a tough night.
*Chavis and the defensive staff were at a bit of a disadvantage because there was no game film to study. Sarkisian was at USC for a number of years, but USC has never had a duel threat QB like Locker. Give UW credit, they came out prepared and executed.
*LSU never really adjusted to the sky kicks on the kickoffs. I would like to see more from this unit.
*I like Jefferson running, but he needs to avoid these big licks. OUCH!
*The offensive line struggled at time, but should get much better as the year goes along. Ask Oklahoma and Oregon about breaking in new guys to the O-line to open the season.
*For all the talk we heard about Russell Sheppard and Rueben Randall during camp, neither of those guys saw the field. I am curious to see how this plays out. Could Sheppard redshirt in hopes of focusing on the QB position in the future? What about Randall? For all the hype I don't think he was out there once. No knock on the kid, but it is curious.
*I think many LSU fans may be disappointed in this opening game. Everyone was telling themselves that UW went 0-12 last season and they are a terrible team, blah, blah, blah. Remember, LSU was pushed but never really threatened. Disappointment is a mindset. There is a lot to be positive about.
*As usual, in reviewing the game, I feel better about LSU’s performance. I think Washington is well coached and will win a few ball games this season. I have faith in Chavis that adjustments will be made and the defense will continue to improve. Offensively, reviewing the game allows you to see that many of the mistakes are mental and can be corrected. Plus, as Jefferson grows as a player, so will the playbook.
*As of today LSU is not good enough to win the West, but the critical stretch of games don’t begin until October 24th when Auburn comes to town. The Tigers will get better each week so we should all continue to look at this season with cautious optimism.
*Finally, that may have been the poorest game I have ever seen ESPN produce. They cut away IN BETWEEN PLAYS in the first half and missed Tolliver’s long TD score. Then went to commercial without a replay!! Bob Davey and Mark Jones could not stop talking about Jake Locker. Actually they could not stop talking period. Usually I like Davey but tonight he was just annoying. Whoever worked the cameras from the production truck needs to get his ass kicked; repeated cuts to the UW sideline and the gushing about Sarkisian left me cursing at the TV.
No cursing here...except by UW's defense...
No cursing here...except by UW's defense...
Friday, September 04, 2009
LSU Videos....
Isn't the internet great?
I found some VERY COOL LSU videos that some of you may enjoy:
Meet the Offense
Meet the defense
Going the Distance
I found some VERY COOL LSU videos that some of you may enjoy:
Meet the Offense
Meet the defense
Going the Distance
Roy Jones would be proud....
*This is a great straight right to the jaw by Oregon's LeGarrette Blount:
Oregon's struggles on offense should be no surprise. The ducks lost four seniors on the O-Line from last season and this is what you get, 8 points and 31 yards rushing on 17 attempts. The O-Line is the foundation not just for an offense but an entire team.
*Here is an excellent article on Spurrier and his time at South Carolina:
The long decline of Steve Spurrier
* This guy has and excellent breakdown of the LSU v. Washington game:
LSU v. Washington
Oregon's struggles on offense should be no surprise. The ducks lost four seniors on the O-Line from last season and this is what you get, 8 points and 31 yards rushing on 17 attempts. The O-Line is the foundation not just for an offense but an entire team.
*Here is an excellent article on Spurrier and his time at South Carolina:
The long decline of Steve Spurrier
* This guy has and excellent breakdown of the LSU v. Washington game:
LSU v. Washington
Thursday, September 03, 2009
LSU at Washington
The only real question I have about the game is this: How many LSU fans drinking at house parties in Baton Rouge are going to pass out before kickoff?
Look for Charles Scott to run up and down the field and the defense to look much more like the unit fans expect. You will get sick of hearing this from me, but John Chavis is a DAMN STRONG coach. Click here for Tennessee’s stats from last season. I ran a few numbers for Chavis over the last 10 years.
Scoring defense: avg. rank 23rd
Rushing defense: avg. rank 27th
Total defense: avg. rank 23rd
UT’s defense finished in the top 3 nationally against the rush three times during this period. Chavis’ crew finished in the top 13 six times in total defense since 1999.
Tigers will romp in the Pacific northwest.
LSU 37 – UDub 10
PS...On the offensive side of the ball, I am making a request now to see LSU run the wishbone at least once this season. Shepard under center, Scott in the fullback position, Williams at one tailback spot and Holliday in the other. PLEASE COACH!!!
The experts have LSU a 17 point favorite which I think is about correct given some of the unknowns on an opening game. But I look for the Tigers to completely dominate this football game. Miles is 4-0 in season openers at LSU and the Tigers have outscored their opening game opponents 166-47 in those contests.
LSU’s offensive and defensive lines will be too much for the Huskies to handle. LSU has superior athletes and an experienced coaching staff. Washington has rookie head coach Steve Sarkisian looking to rebuild a program that went 0-12 last season. If you want to see how bad the Huskies were, click here to see the 2008 statistics. The offense scored 13 points a game and the defense gave up 38 points a game.
Look for Charles Scott to run up and down the field and the defense to look much more like the unit fans expect. You will get sick of hearing this from me, but John Chavis is a DAMN STRONG coach. Click here for Tennessee’s stats from last season. I ran a few numbers for Chavis over the last 10 years.Scoring defense: avg. rank 23rd
Rushing defense: avg. rank 27th
Total defense: avg. rank 23rd
UT’s defense finished in the top 3 nationally against the rush three times during this period. Chavis’ crew finished in the top 13 six times in total defense since 1999.
Tigers will romp in the Pacific northwest.
LSU 37 – UDub 10
PS...On the offensive side of the ball, I am making a request now to see LSU run the wishbone at least once this season. Shepard under center, Scott in the fullback position, Williams at one tailback spot and Holliday in the other. PLEASE COACH!!!
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Rich Rod's Speech Writer...
If I had the privilege to write Rich Rodriquez’s statement regarding the allegations of violating the NCAA’s workout rules:
“I want to start out by saying that this staff knows the rules regarding work outs and we follow the rules. End of story. Anyone who says different is flat out wrong. This team went 3-9 last season. We haven’t beaten Ohio State since 2003. Our players need to understand the importance of hard work. Is there peer pressure amongst our players to go above and beyond what the coaches require? Absolutely. You think players from the top teams around the country are content with working out within NCAA rules and then calling it a day? Of course not. These players are self motivated and take responsibility for their own success.
I will tell you the same thing I told my players when I heard about this garbage. If you don’t want to be a Michigan Man, there is the door! I’ll release you from your commitment in a heartbeat. I am sick of guys around here treating this place like a country club. All the whinning and bitching makes me sick. You know why so many players have left since we got here? They weren’t committed to winning. They were not committed to taking responsibility upon themselves to be winners.
I don’t get these malcontents in our locker room attacking the integrity of the Michigan program. All they are doing is hurting their teammates and the Michigan program by anonymously spreading these lies. I am sure these are players who are frustrated because they are being out worked by their team mates. They aren’t where they think they should be on the depth chart. They think that since they have been here for a few years they are entitled to a starting spot. Instead of responding to the challenge and examples set by the leaders on this team, they would rather go to the media under cover of anonymity and spread lies to poison this program.
(Lower voice and give a steely glare) A true Michigan Man stands up to be counted…a true Michigan Man stands up to adversity.
Michigan is a great school and the Michigan Football program was great long before I got here or any of these players got here. It will continue to be an elite program long after I am gone as well. But I will be damned if I don’t do everything in my power to maintain the history of excellence of the Wolverines and the integrity this program is renowned for! (Pound on podium at this point)
I’m sick of this crap and all the negativity surrounding this program. We didn’t do anything wrong. And I’m not answering any questions regarding this bullshit; I have a game to prepare for.” (Walk off stage)
Quote of the Day
Read more.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Random Musings
I saw an interesting stat that showed that only seven teams since 1983 finished in the AP top 5 with a freshman quarterback starting at least four games. Only ONE of those quarterbacks, Oklahoma’s Jamelle Holieway, was a TRUE freshman. I am very interested to see how USC does now that Pete Carroll has named true freshman Matt Barkley the starting quarterback. All the talking heads are saying USC is so good it doesn’t matter who you line up behind center. I respectfully disagree. (So does the LA Times Click here) The Trojans lost both coordinators and eight starters on defense. Trips to Ohio State, Cal, Notre Shame, Oregon and Arizona State will present significant challenges. USC is looking at a 9-3 or 10-2 record.
The media seems to be drinking the Nick Saban Kool-Aid in massive amounts. They seem to forget about the fact that Saban has never had back to 10+ win seasons. Saban has never won back-to-back division titles. Alabama was mediocre on offense last season and lost their top two offensive linemen and their number one tight end.
Looking beyond just this season, there will be a tremendous amount of pressure on Saban the next two years. He is one of the highest paid coaches in the country, but thus far he has produced one division title and one Independence Bowl win over Colorado. If Bama doesn’t win the division or conference this season, will next season be any better? In 2010, the Tide are at Arkansas, at Tennessee, at South Carolina and at LSU plus get Florida at home. Does that look like a schedule conducive to an SEC Championship much less a National Championship? Saban just signed an extension through 2017. I have no doubt that he is a great coach, but the expectations at Alabama will be through the roof this season and in the future. How will Saban and the fans deal with disappointment? This will be an interesting situation to watch.
I think this season could be a wild one similar to 2007. The top teams are all dealing with serious questions that I think the media glosses over. (ahem…Bama, USC)
Take Oklahoma for instance. Great team no doubt. But the Sooners lost FOUR starters on the offensive line. The defense gets everyone back, but real questions exist.
Penn State has only one senior on the offensive line. That line will include three new starters including two sophomores. Only four starters return on defense.
Ohio State only has four starters returning on offense. Pryor will really have to carry the Buckeyes at times this season.
Trendy picks Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, California and Georgia Tech have not proved themselves to warrant confidence. The Cowboys last won a conference title in 1976, in the now defunct Big 8. It has been over 45 years since Ole Miss won the SEC. The 1958 Bears were the last Cal team to represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl. Georgia Tech has won a grand total of two conference titles in the last 50 years.
I think the ACC may be very good this season. Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech and UNC all have the potential to be excellent teams. The consensus seems to be that Florida and a Big 12 team will play for the national title. Don’t be surprised if an ACC team makes the title game. The ACC is better than people think and someone could emerge from there.
Rutgers is an interesting case from the Big East. Looking at their recruiting over the last five years, each class looks stronger and stronger. The Scarlet Knights return ALL FIVE starters on the offensive line and the starting tight end returns as well. All the tough conference games are at home this year.
Only a few days left until the season begins. Can’t wait.
The media seems to be drinking the Nick Saban Kool-Aid in massive amounts. They seem to forget about the fact that Saban has never had back to 10+ win seasons. Saban has never won back-to-back division titles. Alabama was mediocre on offense last season and lost their top two offensive linemen and their number one tight end.
Looking beyond just this season, there will be a tremendous amount of pressure on Saban the next two years. He is one of the highest paid coaches in the country, but thus far he has produced one division title and one Independence Bowl win over Colorado. If Bama doesn’t win the division or conference this season, will next season be any better? In 2010, the Tide are at Arkansas, at Tennessee, at South Carolina and at LSU plus get Florida at home. Does that look like a schedule conducive to an SEC Championship much less a National Championship? Saban just signed an extension through 2017. I have no doubt that he is a great coach, but the expectations at Alabama will be through the roof this season and in the future. How will Saban and the fans deal with disappointment? This will be an interesting situation to watch.
I think this season could be a wild one similar to 2007. The top teams are all dealing with serious questions that I think the media glosses over. (ahem…Bama, USC)
Take Oklahoma for instance. Great team no doubt. But the Sooners lost FOUR starters on the offensive line. The defense gets everyone back, but real questions exist.
Penn State has only one senior on the offensive line. That line will include three new starters including two sophomores. Only four starters return on defense.Ohio State only has four starters returning on offense. Pryor will really have to carry the Buckeyes at times this season.
Trendy picks Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, California and Georgia Tech have not proved themselves to warrant confidence. The Cowboys last won a conference title in 1976, in the now defunct Big 8. It has been over 45 years since Ole Miss won the SEC. The 1958 Bears were the last Cal team to represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl. Georgia Tech has won a grand total of two conference titles in the last 50 years.
I think the ACC may be very good this season. Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech and UNC all have the potential to be excellent teams. The consensus seems to be that Florida and a Big 12 team will play for the national title. Don’t be surprised if an ACC team makes the title game. The ACC is better than people think and someone could emerge from there.
Rutgers is an interesting case from the Big East. Looking at their recruiting over the last five years, each class looks stronger and stronger. The Scarlet Knights return ALL FIVE starters on the offensive line and the starting tight end returns as well. All the tough conference games are at home this year.Only a few days left until the season begins. Can’t wait.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Studs to the Face...
This may be the greatest flying kick since Bruce Lee starred in "Enter the Dragon."
Friday, August 21, 2009
SEC East
Any discussion of the SEC East must begin with Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators. Florida returns ALL ELEVEN starters from last year’s National Championship defense. Offensively, the only real loss is Percy Harvin. But the core of the offensive line is back and of course, so is Tebow. The toughest game of the season will probably be the Gator’s trip to Baton Rouge. Tebow has called the loss at LSU in 2007 the toughest of his career, so look for an inspired effort on October 10. I expect the Gators to go 13-0 and win the BCS Title Game. Too much defense and Tebow will NOT let these guys lose. (Don’t be surprised if some NFL owner throws a bunch of money at Meyer at the end of the season.)Georgia will be a step behind the Gators but not as much as some may think. The entire offensive line returns and senior QB Joe Cox will do a fine job all year. The bigger questions for me are on the defense. Last season Georgia gave up 41 to Alabama, 49 to Florida, 38 to LSU, 38 to Kentucky and 45 to Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs must get better on that side of the ball to have any chance at the SEC East or possible BCS Bowl. The schedule is manageable with LSU, Auburn, South Carolina and Kentucky at home. Road games are at Vandy, Arkansas and Tennessee.
I write this every year; I like Steve Spurrier. While he will not bring a division title to South Carolina this season, the Gamecocks should be competitive again and can look to make a run next season. This season’s schedule is pretty tough. 4-4 in the SEC would be an accomplishment.
Rich Brooks has done a really good job at UK. The Wildcats have won three consecutive bowl games and have wins over LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Clemson and Florida State since 2006. Kentucky will be solid once again and will battle for third spot behind Florida and Georgia.
Lame Kiffin’s antics at UT have changed the perception of Al Davis as a crazy old dude to a legitimately upset NFL owner. Davis stated in part upon firing Kiffin:
I realized when I hired you [Kiffin] that you were young and inexperienced and that there would be a learning process for you. Your mistakes on player personnel and coaches were overlooked based on our patience with you, but I never dreamt that you would be untruthful in attempts and in statements in the press as well as so many other issues. Your actions are those of a coach looking to make excuses for not winning rather than a coach focused on winning.
When the beatings and losses start adding up, I am curious to see how this plays out. On the field, the defense will be very good. But offensively, UT will struggle. Add Kiffin’s off season jabs at some of the best coaches in the game Meyer, Saban, Richt and Spurrier, don’t be surprised to see starters on the field long after the game has been decided. With road games at Florida, Alabama, Kentucky and Ole Miss, Kiffin will be lucky to go 2-2. Home games against Carolina, Vandy, Auburn and Georgia will all present real challenges. If it’s not clear, I think the Vols took a HUGE risk hiring Kiffin. One word comes to mind in looking at this guy, IMMATURITY.
Vandy won a bowl game in 2008! That is impressive in itself, but who they beat is an even bigger deal. Boston College won their division in the ACC and played in the ACC Championship Game for the second consecutive year. Behind a strong defensive effort Vandy was able to defeat BC 16-14. Vandy will once again be right there for a second consecutive bowl appearance but will have to steal two games along the way. The schedule is not favorable, but don’t be surprised by another 6-6 regular season.
SEC East
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Kentucky
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Monday, August 17, 2009
Villains
An interesting article on ESPN.com got me thinking, “who are the great villains in LSU football?” With all humbleness I present my top 5:
Nick Saban, Head Coach of Alabama. While well on his way to the Mount Rushmore of LSU football, Saban changed directions and broke fan’s hearts by heading to the NFL. While his departure created a bit of a rift, as with all break-ups, time would heal the wounds. Or so it appeared. But after two lackluster seasons in the NFL, Saban came back to college football. Not to just any teams though. Saban became head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Just imagine if Robert E. Lee had switched sides in the middle of the civil war; or the outcry if George Washington changed sides and had led the British in the War of 1812? (Washington was well dead by then but you get the point.) He is the ultimate villain because he was one of us only to commit the ultimate college football treason.
John Bond, QB Mississippi State. Bond ran the wishbone for the Bulldogs from 1980 to 1983. This series was not always as one sided as it is now. From 1978 to 1984, LSU was 1-6 versus state. Bond played a huge part in those years going 4-0 against the Tigers. MSU averaged 36 points a game against LSU with Bond under center.
Nebraska. From 1971 to 1987, the Tigers played the Cornhuskers six times and are an ugly 0-5-1 in the series.
1971 Orange Bowl – LSU 12 – NU 17
1975 in Lincoln – LSU 7 – NU 10
1976 in BR – LSU 6 – NU 6 (Cornhuskers were ranked #1)
1983 Orange Bowl – LSU 20 – NU 21
1985 Sugar Bowl – LSU 10 – NU 28
1987 Sugar Bowl – LSU 15 – NU 30
Steve Spurrier, Head Coach Florida Gators. In 12 years coaching Florida, Spurrier was a sterling 11-1 versus LSU. What puts him in on this list though is the way those 11 wins came about. We are talking about some SERIOUS beat downs of the Tigers. Who can forget the 58-3 total destruction in Tiger Stadium in 1993? Saban wasn’t immune; in 2001 Florida came into Tiger Stadium and flogged the Tigers 44-15. In those 11 wins, the average score was LSU 10 – Florida 36.
The refs of the 2004 LSU – Auburn game. This one will be in the memory bank until doomsday. A late game no call on an obvious pass interference by Auburn was bad. But calling a flag on LSU after an Auburn missed an extra point was inexcusable. The official called a foul on an LSU player because he jumped over the pile and landed on another player. This will be my 28th season of LSU football. I have NEVER, EVER seen that called.
Send me your thoughts on any other villains I missed.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
2009 SEC West
The last time the same two teams met in the SEC Championship in consecutive years was 1994. Alabama and Florida played for the title three consecutive years from 1992-1994. The SEC Media predictions just came out and they are picking…Florida and Alabama.
While Florida was a no brainer from the East, the SEC West has been…unpredictable.
1995: After being picked to finish 4th or 5th by most magazines, Arkansas breaks Alabama’s hold on the West and makes its first appearance in the SEC Championship.
1997: LSU was picked by many to win the division and play Tennessee for the SEC Title. UT held up its end of the bargain but Auburn beat LSU in Baton Rouge and made its first appearance in Atlanta.
1998: LSU was again a near consensus pick to win the West. The Tigers fell apart allowing Mississippi State, picked 5th or 6th by all the major publications to make their only appearance in Atlanta.
2000: Alabama opened the season #3 in the country and a consensus pick by ALL the pre-season magazines to win the SEC West. Before it the season was over, Mike Dubose was fired and lightly regarded Auburn, picked to finish 4th or 5th by most, made their second trip to the Georgia Dome.
2002: Coming off a 2001 SEC title, many picked LSU to repeat as West champs. It wasn’t to be as Arkansas, picked by most to finish 4th or 5th, beat LSU in Little Rock to capture another West crown.
2003: One publication picked Auburn to win the National Championship. Those Tigers finished a disappointing 7-5 while LSU won its first National Title in 45 years.
2004: This time LSU stumbles as pre-season favorite while Auburn goes 13-0 but gets shut out of the National Title game.
2006: Arkansas is picked to finish 4th by almost all the preseason publications. Behind Darren McFadden and the “Wild Hog,” Arkansas goes 7-1 in the conference to win the West.
2008: LSU and Auburn, pre-season favorites, falter as Alabama goes 12-0 in the regular season to win the West.
SEC West Prediction
Ole Miss
LSU
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Miss. State
Why Ole Miss?
Call it a hunch. The Rebels have never won the division; they are the only West team to never appear in the SEC Championship. But they get a number of things breaking their way. The schedule is favorable, no Florida or Georgia. Tennessee, LSU and Alabama must travel to Oxford this year. The Rebels have the most experienced QB in the division in Jevan Sneed. There is enough experience returning to hit the ground running from the opening game. Finally, I like Houston Nutt. He has proven he can win big games and take teams to the SEC Title game. (Beat LSU in Baton Rouge in ’07 and Florida in Gainesville in ’08. Arkansas won SEC West in ’02 and ’06) The Rebels were picked to finish 3rd in the division behind Alabama and LSU by the SEC Media. Nutt will use this as motivation for his team.
As most of my regular readers know, I am a big fan of Les Miles. His reshaping of the defensive staff during the off-season rewarded my faith. Miles has brought in a number of fantastic coaches including John Chavis. LSU’s defense will be very good this season. There is no question that LSU has great players on that side of the ball and I think fans will see a renewed intensity. Rahim Alem will be fantastic and the secondary will play MUCH better. The problem for LSU is inexperience at QB and a rough schedule. Trips to Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss combined with Florida and Auburn at home present LSU with a formidable task. Jordan Jefferson played VERY well in the two games against Arkansas and Georgia Tech last season. But we don’t know how he will respond on a weekly basis in some rather hostile stadiums.
Alabama is ranked so highly for one reason, Saban. The Tide lost their two best offensive linemen (both taken in the NFL draft), their top RB and a 5th year QB. They will be a good team, but don’t expect all the bounces to go their way. Road trips to Kentucky, Ole Miss and Auburn will present real challenges. Home games against South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU will also be very close affairs. Think about this, Bama was 5th in scoring offense, 6th in total offense, 3rd in rushing offense and 9th in passing offense in the SEC in 2008. After losing four key players on that side of the ball, why should we expect them to be better or even as good? Championships are built on defense, but unless Alabama can keep the chains moving, that defense will get worn down.
The head coaches at Arkansas, Auburn and MSU have a combined ONE year of service as head coaches in the SEC. I’m not going to pretend to know how exactly they shake out. Auburn and MSU are strong on defense but suffered horribly on offense in 2008. The Hogs struggled all year and finished 93 in the country in scoring defense. One of these teams will get to 6-6 or better and make a bowl.
While Florida was a no brainer from the East, the SEC West has been…unpredictable.
1995: After being picked to finish 4th or 5th by most magazines, Arkansas breaks Alabama’s hold on the West and makes its first appearance in the SEC Championship.
1997: LSU was picked by many to win the division and play Tennessee for the SEC Title. UT held up its end of the bargain but Auburn beat LSU in Baton Rouge and made its first appearance in Atlanta.
1998: LSU was again a near consensus pick to win the West. The Tigers fell apart allowing Mississippi State, picked 5th or 6th by all the major publications to make their only appearance in Atlanta.
2000: Alabama opened the season #3 in the country and a consensus pick by ALL the pre-season magazines to win the SEC West. Before it the season was over, Mike Dubose was fired and lightly regarded Auburn, picked to finish 4th or 5th by most, made their second trip to the Georgia Dome.
2002: Coming off a 2001 SEC title, many picked LSU to repeat as West champs. It wasn’t to be as Arkansas, picked by most to finish 4th or 5th, beat LSU in Little Rock to capture another West crown.
2003: One publication picked Auburn to win the National Championship. Those Tigers finished a disappointing 7-5 while LSU won its first National Title in 45 years.
2004: This time LSU stumbles as pre-season favorite while Auburn goes 13-0 but gets shut out of the National Title game.
2006: Arkansas is picked to finish 4th by almost all the preseason publications. Behind Darren McFadden and the “Wild Hog,” Arkansas goes 7-1 in the conference to win the West.
2008: LSU and Auburn, pre-season favorites, falter as Alabama goes 12-0 in the regular season to win the West.
SEC West PredictionOle Miss
LSU
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Miss. State
Why Ole Miss?
Call it a hunch. The Rebels have never won the division; they are the only West team to never appear in the SEC Championship. But they get a number of things breaking their way. The schedule is favorable, no Florida or Georgia. Tennessee, LSU and Alabama must travel to Oxford this year. The Rebels have the most experienced QB in the division in Jevan Sneed. There is enough experience returning to hit the ground running from the opening game. Finally, I like Houston Nutt. He has proven he can win big games and take teams to the SEC Title game. (Beat LSU in Baton Rouge in ’07 and Florida in Gainesville in ’08. Arkansas won SEC West in ’02 and ’06) The Rebels were picked to finish 3rd in the division behind Alabama and LSU by the SEC Media. Nutt will use this as motivation for his team.
As most of my regular readers know, I am a big fan of Les Miles. His reshaping of the defensive staff during the off-season rewarded my faith. Miles has brought in a number of fantastic coaches including John Chavis. LSU’s defense will be very good this season. There is no question that LSU has great players on that side of the ball and I think fans will see a renewed intensity. Rahim Alem will be fantastic and the secondary will play MUCH better. The problem for LSU is inexperience at QB and a rough schedule. Trips to Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss combined with Florida and Auburn at home present LSU with a formidable task. Jordan Jefferson played VERY well in the two games against Arkansas and Georgia Tech last season. But we don’t know how he will respond on a weekly basis in some rather hostile stadiums.
Alabama is ranked so highly for one reason, Saban. The Tide lost their two best offensive linemen (both taken in the NFL draft), their top RB and a 5th year QB. They will be a good team, but don’t expect all the bounces to go their way. Road trips to Kentucky, Ole Miss and Auburn will present real challenges. Home games against South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU will also be very close affairs. Think about this, Bama was 5th in scoring offense, 6th in total offense, 3rd in rushing offense and 9th in passing offense in the SEC in 2008. After losing four key players on that side of the ball, why should we expect them to be better or even as good? Championships are built on defense, but unless Alabama can keep the chains moving, that defense will get worn down.
The head coaches at Arkansas, Auburn and MSU have a combined ONE year of service as head coaches in the SEC. I’m not going to pretend to know how exactly they shake out. Auburn and MSU are strong on defense but suffered horribly on offense in 2008. The Hogs struggled all year and finished 93 in the country in scoring defense. One of these teams will get to 6-6 or better and make a bowl.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)