Bama...Bama...Bama won't you bite my....

Since Saban’s arrival in 2000, Alabama has been the signature game on the Tiger’s schedule.  Of course this was always a big game for LSU fans going back to the 60’s, but LSU just wasn’t on par with many of Bear Bryant’s teams. From 1964 to 1981, LSU was 2-16 against the Tide.  Things improved a bit upon Bryant’s retirement in 1982, as LSU went 6-11-1 in the next 18 games.  Better, but clearly Alabama held the upper hand.

But in 2000, Alabama travelled to Baton Rouge for a wild 30-28 LSU victory, the first in Tiger Stadium versus the Tide since 1969.  LSU is 9-6 in the last 15 match-ups which include 3 OT games, a #1 vs. #2 Game of the Century and a BCS National Title Game.  Since 2003, the two teams have won 5 SEC Titles and 5 National Titles.

 And oh yea, there is that little thing about Saban becoming Alabama’s coach in 2007 after a failed stint in the NFL.

The teams meet this Saturday for what shapes up to be another physical battle with SEC and National Playoff implications on the line.  A few things to look for:

1. Can LSU continue its recent success running the ball?  The Tigers have averaged 254 yards per game on the ground the last three games.  UF, UK and UM are ranked 22^nd, 94^th and 33^rd respectively in national rushing defense.  Alabama is ranked 2^nd nationally only giving up 78 yards per game. This will be the most potent running game Alabama has faced up until this point in the season.  In 5 SEC games, the Tigers are averaging 45 rushes per game.  Tide opponents are only attempting 33 rushes per game in their 5 SEC games.  LSU wore down Ole Miss in the 4^th quarter. Can they do the same Saturday?
2. How does LSU handle Amari Cooper?  Cooper is second in the nation averaging 141 yards receiving per game. He is a game changer and the Tigers will have to account for him every play.  LSU is only giving up 158 yards per game through the air. (4^th nationally)
3. Can Blake Simms deal with the hostile environment better than Bo Wallace?  Wallace wilted under the constant noise and heckling of LSU fans.  It was reported he even jawed with LSU fans behind the Ole Miss bench in between series. I expect LSU fans to give Simms the same treatment if not worse.  How will he handle the pressure?

Against Ole Miss, LSU was able to get away with 4 turnovers, multiple dropped interceptions, multiple penalties, a missed FG and nothing in the punt return game.  Those things need to get cleaned up if the Tigers are to win.  This game reminds me of 2010 on a number of levels, a 7-1 Bama team coming in with title hopes still very much alive and a supportive media declaring them the best of the one loss teams.  LSU won and went on to finish 11-2 and set the stage for the 2011 season.

I expect a relatively low scoring game without much offensive flash.  I expect Alabama to mirror LSU and run the ball and try to hit some passes to Cooper.  I want to take the Tigers but I just fear LSU will not be able to “hide” Jennings in this game.  In the last 3 games he has attempted a total of 51 passes, 17 per game.  He is going to have to make a few plays and I just don’t trust him to come through.  Les has lost three in a row to Saban, on Saturday, make it four.  Let's hope I am wrong.

LSU 17 – Alabama 21

 

Final Four: Week 10

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Alabama v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Oregon

I moved Mississippi State out as they seemed to have peaked and they must play Alabama on the road. If the Tide get past LSU, the schedule really shapes up for them to finish 12-1 as SEC Champs.  I think the Big 12 ends up with a 10-2 champion which will leave the door open for the 12-1 Spartans.  I also like Oregon's chances to win out and finish as a 12-1 Pac-12 champ.