Sunday, November 06, 2005

Tune Ups for Tide

Big blowouts usually don’t leave much to talk about and last Saturday’s blasting of North Texas and this weekend’s shut out of Appalachian State are no exceptions. The Tigers handled business and came away with resounding wins. LSU basically slept walked thru this Saturday’s game but a shut out is always nice and the Tigers moved on with out any injuries to the big showdown with Alabama.

All you are going to hear about this week is Alabama's defense. The Tide is #1 in the nation in scoring defense, #7 in rushing defense, #4 in passing defense and #3 in total defense. This is very impressive to say the least.

However, the numbers are misleading for the simple fact that Alabama hasn’t played anyone with an offense of note. The average scoring offense ranking of the Tide’s nine opponents is 86th. Of the Tide 9 opponents, 5 are ranked 103rd or worse in scoring offense. (Remember, there are only 117 teams in division I-A football.) The combined record of Alabama’s opponents is a paltry 32-41. (.438 winning percentage)

This is not to say that Alabama is not very good on defense. Rather, the Crimson Tide have yet to be tested by an offense as talented as LSU’s. After struggling early, JaMarcus Russell has settled down as of late. He has only one interception in his last 3 games and 4 TD’s over that same period. LSU has been battle tested playing ASU on the road and UT, Florida and Auburn at home. Outside of the Gators, Bama has played no one with any offensive firepower.

While the Tide’s defense has been solid, the offense has been putrid since losing Tyrone Prothro. Since losing the gamebreaking wideout in the Florida game, Alabama is averaging 12 points a game in SEC clashes. In those three games, the Tide has scored ONE offensive TD, and that was against lowly Ole Miss. While maybe not as dominating defensively as Bama, the Tigers have done very well this season. LSU ranks #16 against the run, #5 in pass efficiency defense, #12 in total defense, #6 in scoring defense and #3 in net punting.

Special teams and field position will be critical to this low scoring game. If the Tigers can make just a few plays on offense and hold on to the ball, LSU should win by at least a touchdown. The Tide just can’t score and that won’t change against LSU.

Tigers 20 – Tide 10.

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