The Big Story

The biggest story of the past week is George Bush’s triumphant reelection as President. While I could easily talk about the importance of his reelection, that’s not why we’re here is it?

The big story in college football, in my mind, is the four undefeated teams remaining with a shot at the Orange Bowl. USC, Oklahoma, Auburn and Wisconsin are all in the race for the National Title. I am amazed not at the fact that they are in the mix, but how they have gotten there.

USC has a few blowouts on the resume, but they have deftly avoided the upset bug in a few nail biters. The Men of Troy have won 4 of their games by 11 points or less, with the Stanford and Cal meetings going down to the wire.

Oklahoma has survived spirited challenges the last few weeks on the road from Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. 3 of their last 4 games have been decided by 10 points or less.

Auburn has done a better of job avoiding close games. Actually, with the exception of the one point win over LSU, The Tigers have blow everyone out with their closest margin of victory 18 points.

The Badgers lived dangerously to start the season. With a 2 point win over Arizona and a 3 point win over Purdue after a last second missed field goal, Wisconsin dodged heartbreaking losses.

All of these teams have senior leadership and a little luck added in. But this trend goes beyond these four. Texas was down by 28 against OSU this weekend then roared back to win. Oregon dropped an easy 4th down pass late in the game Saturday letting California off the hook. Louisville could not get a stop against Miami a few weeks ago to preserve a huge upset. Michigan has won three games by 3 points or less. LSU beat Oregon State and Troy by a combined 5 points. With four weeks left in the season, there are 13 teams with zero or one loss. Last season ended with no undefeated teams and only two teams with one loss (LSU and USC). What gives?

I think it is a combination of mental toughness by the winners and an inability to seal the deal by the losers. I have watched over 100 games this season (sick, ain’t it?), every single one of the games I have mentioned earlier. The favorites have consistently made plays late in games while the underdogs have been oh-so-close yet unable to make that ONE critical play, fumble recovery, an interception, a big sack, or a deep pass setting up a field goal late to seal a huge upset. It can be frustrating seeing some heavyweights slip by overmatched opponents, but it is also a pleasure to watch good teams execute in clutch situations.

Speaking of execution, I think LSU fans are going to be on the warpath after the game against Alabama. Although the streak was broken back in 2000, LSU has only beaten Alabama once in Tiger Stadium since 1969. This is a solid Alabama team with one of the nation’s best defenses. The Tide is ranked #1 in the country in total defense and pass defense, giving up only 224 yards and 107 yards per game respectively. Alabama is 6th in scoring defense giving up only 13.5 points a contest. The Tigers are no slouches though. LSU ranks #4 nationally in total defense and pass defense. Both teams will rely on the running game while on offense. But LSU has turned the ball over a ridiculous number of times this season (88th nationally in TO margin) and I look for that to continue this week. Alabama also has a big edge in special teams. The Tide is ranked #1 in KO returns and Brian Bostick is 13 for 16 in the field goal department. This game has been described as the beginning of a “3 game season.” Too bad the Tigers will get off to a rocky start.

LSU 10 – Alabama 13.