The New Coach

I think LSU made a terrific move for two reasons. One, Nick Saban is a very good coach. Two, and even more important in the long run, LSU has ended the perception that it is a backwoods watering hole unwilling to pay a top notch coach. The Curleys and DiNardos of the world will no longer be “prime candidates” for the LSU head coaching position. Top coaches will look at LSU as a place to win championships, not a place use as leverage in seeking a pay raise with their present employer. I understand that just because LSU spent a great deal of money, wins are not guaranteed to follow. But with the financial commitment, LSU shows the fans, supporters and others around the country that LSU is serious about the football program.

As to Saban specifically, I like the hire. Yes his record is only slightly better than DiNardo’s, but let’s dig deeper into those numbers. After 5 years with Saban, MSU is playing in the Citrus Bowl. After 5 years with DiNardo, LSU was on the verge of matching its WORST season record in the 106 year history of LSU football. When DiNardo took over at LSU, the cubord was hardly bare. LSU had the #1 rated defense in the SEC in ’94 and a number of seniors on the ’95 squad. MSU was in a different position. Coming off NCAA probation, MSU was not loaded with talent, yet Saban brought that squad to the Independence Bowl.

Another important factor is recruiting base. MSU and LSU are on totally different planes. MSU has to compete with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Notre Dame for prospects. The big hurdle being that MSU is viewed as the second best school in the state behind UM. LSU owns Louisiana. Yes, some schools come in to raid the state, but LSU’s head coach should be able to keep many of those players here. I think DiNardo did a decent job of recruiting, as there are many talented players on the squad. His problem was one of attrition, either grades or guys getting so deep in the dog house they decided to leave. According to ESPN’s recruiting expert, MSU was on the verge of landing a top 10 recruiting class. If he can do that at MSU, he can do it at LSU.

Will he stay? I’m not terribly worried about Saban leaving. He has moved around a bit, but LSU has set the bar extremely high for another program to entice him to leave. The NFL? If he was going to leave, why didn’t he take the Colts job? It was right down the street from where he was, the Colts GM is believed by many to be one of the best people in the NFL, and you know the money was there. I think Saban wants to be the complete boss. He wants to be in charge of coaching and player personnel. There are only 6 coaches in the NFL who have that power. However, a college coach is lord of his realm. He brings in his players and decides who stays and who plays. If he is hired away by someone else, then it means LSU will have won a lot of football games.

I am a bit biased as I think Morris Watt is a terrific coach. I hope he comes back down with Saban. The one thing it shows me is that Saban has an eye for coaching talent and when DiNardo ran Watts off, Saban picked him up for the MSU staff. In only his first year running the offense, Watts had MSU scoring 31 points a game. The only question left is who the coordinator is if Watts does not return.

A few other numbers are interesting to look at. DiNardo’s record against Florida, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss is 4-13. On the plus side he was 3-0 in bowl games. Admittedly three smaller bowls, but LSU was well prepared for those games.

Saban was 9-7 versus Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Currently, MSU has a three game winning streak against Notre Dame and a two game winning streak against OSU. Unfortunately, he was also 0-3 in his bowl games which is troubling, but I don’t think it is cause for alarm. What does all this mean? Saban can obviously get his team up for big games during the regular season, (remember OSU from last year). I think with more depth and better talent consistency will follow. I think this year was a great example of that. I have always believed that one key to a winning season is winning when you play poorly. FSU is a good example of this. Some of their games were lackluster, yet they have so much talent, they can win even if they are not “up” for the game.