Don't Get Cocky

LSU's Tyrion Davis-Price runs away from South Carolina defenders

LSU got back to winning Saturday night thumping South Carolina 52-24.  Plenty of good things to discuss but problems still exist.

Offense

* TJ Finley was fantastic in his debut.  The true freshman went 17 for 21 with 265 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT.  He made good decisions all night and was extremely poised. All LSU fans should be excited about Finley's potential.

* LSU was finally committed to the run and had a good bit of success.  The Tigers rushed the ball 54 times for 276 yards with three TD's.  Davis-Price had 135 yards on 22 carries, career highs for both.

* Terrance Marshall caught two more TD's raising his season total to nine.  He will be a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award as long the LSU QB's throw his way.

* The O-Line played their best game of the season.  Finley was not sacked once and the ground game produced a season high.

* Inevitably people will be calling for Finley to be the starter because of this one game.  I am not one of those folks.  Brennan has gotten better every game and would have put up big numbers against South Carolina had he been healthy.  Finley, playing at home, was only asked to throw the ball 21 times the entire game.  Brennan has averaged that in each half this season.  In LSU's two loses, the Tigers averaged only 65 yards per game on the ground.  Coach O was clear after the game saying Brennan was the starter.  This team has enough problems with out a QB controversy.  Finley will have his time in the sun.  Just not yet.

Defense

* LSU allowed 7.9 yards per play against South Carolina.  As atrocious as that number is, it's an improvement over the Missouri and Mississippi State games.  For the season, LSU is giving up 7.17 yards per play, 96th out of 101 teams.  

* Teams are averaging 4.22 yards per carry and 9.7 yards per passing attempt against LSU's defense.  The problem is "big" plays.  LSU has given up the most 20+, 30+ and 40+ yard plays in the SEC.

* There are bright spots. LSU is ranked 15th nationally and 3rd in the SEC red-zone defense.  LSU is first in the SEC in allowing TD's on only 46% of opponent's red-zone opportunities.  The Tigers also rank first in the SEC in sacks per game and 9th nationally. 

* At this point I think fans need to a take a long and critical look at the defensive players on this team.  Does Pelini deserve a ton of blame for the defensive struggles? Absolutely.  But defensive players are making school boy errors that are not coaching related.  The Tigers have a long way to go to be considered even a mediocre defense.  The competition is only going to get stronger as the season rolls on.

Next Up

The LSU v. Auburn series has been one of the most entertaining match-ups in all of college football over that last 25 years.  There was a time when playing at Auburn was a nightmare, but that has changed for the most part.  Since I wrote that article back in 2006, LSU is 10-3 versus Auburn overall and 3-3 when playing at Jordan-Hare Stadium.  

The most the Tigers have ever scored at Auburn was in 1998 in Terry Bowden's final season.  LSU hung 31 on an Auburn team that finished the season 3-8.  I would be surprised if LSU doesn't break that record this year.  AU is giving up a hair over 400 yards and 25 points per game.  AU's QB, Bo Nix, is struggling this season.  His QB rating places him 13th in the SEC and 74th nationally.  But LSU's defense is so poor I expect him to have a solid game.  AU's lead running back Tank Bigsby is a load.  He is averaging 5.8 yards a carry.  Expect a heavy dose of him to keep drives moving and LSU's offense off the field.  To win the game, LSU will have to score early and try and put pressure on Auburn's offense.  Turnovers will be key as LSU has been unable to stop teams and force many punts.  I want to believe this team is getting better, but I have zero confidence in the defense.  What the hell...

LSU 38 - Auburn 35

Expect another crazy ending Saturday...

Defenseless

 

We all expected a step back after LSU lost so many players and coaches.  But I don't think anyone expected this.  Going into this season, with the exception of hiring Matta Canada, Orgeron has pushed all the right buttons with the Tigers.  He hung on to Dave Aranda for as long as he could.  He took in Joe Burrow and Cole Tracy as grad transfers. He hired Joe Brady from the Saints.  It all culminated in the 2019 LSU Tigers, arguably the greatest team in the history of college football.

No team, in the history of LSU football, has given up more points in three consecutive games than the 2020 LSU Tigers.  MSU, Vandy and Missouri have a combined record of 2-7, and scored a combined 96 points on the Tigers.  We can hope the performance against Missouri is the bottom, but I'm not so sure.

Offense

* Myles Brennan has played better each week of this season.  He was 29 of 40 for 430 yards, 4 TD and no interceptions.  Brennan graded out #1 this week in PFF's Power 5 QB ratings. 

* Brennan has very little support from the running game.  LSU is averaging 3.22 yards per carry and less than 100 yards a game.  The Tigers are ranked 71st out of 76 teams in rushing.

* LSU's offensive line has got to get better.  LSU must also recruit better.  The elite teams have have multiple 5 star recruits on the offensive line.  LSU has none.

* LSU may win the Biletnikoff Trophy two years in a row.  Terrance Marshall has been unstoppable this season.  He is averaging seven catches per game, 20 yards per catch and has 7 TD's through three games.

* Scott Linehan has been a total bust.  He calls 3rd down and red zone plays.  LSU is an atrocious 9 for 39 on 3rd downs.  He called the four plays on the goal line at the end of the Missouri game.  LSU's TD conversion rate in the redzone is only 54%.  Last year it was 78%.  Do you give ALL the keys to Ensminger?  I have more trust in him than Linehan, but we are only three weeks into the season.  As poor as the defense played, LSU should have scored at the end of the game to beat Missouri.

Defense

* Defensive line cannot stop the run.

* Defensive secondary cannot stop the pass.

* LSU ranks 73rd of 76 teams in defensive yards per play.  The Tigers give up an average of 7 yards every defensive snap.

* Thus far, Bo Pelini has be a complete and utter failure.  His buyout is in the neighborhood of $4-$6 million.  How LSU agreed to that contract is mindboggling. This is on Orgeron for hiring Pelini and Woodward for signing off on such a foolish contract.  Pelini is not getting fired before the season ends.  The best they can do is keep working and simplify what they are doing as much as possible.

In 2010, Cam Newton came from nowhere to win the Heisman Trophy and a National Championship.  Auburn's head coach Gene Chizik guided one of the more improbable title runs in college football history.  Newton entered the 2011 draft and a depleted Auburn went 8-5 that next season. The wheels fell of in 2012 as Auburn went 0-8 in the SEC and Chizik was fired.

I'm not saying LSU and Coach O are on the same path.  But as a whole, this is the worst team since 1999.  That's how bad this defense has been and how poorly these coaches have performed.  Orgeron has a huge task ahead trying to salvage this season.  Poor coaching has cost LSU two victories.  The Tigers should be 3-0.  But after Saturday, LSU looks like a 3-7 to 4-6 team.  Missing out on a bowl game and the extra practice would be a giant blow. Let's hope this staff and these players get their minds right in a hurry.

Good Night in Nashville

 

The Tigers bounced back from a disappointing loss in week one to beat Vanderbilt 41-7 Saturday night.  I know...it's Vandy, but you can only play the team in front of you.  The Tigers took care of business and looked good doing it.

Offense

* Myles Brennan took plenty of heat after week 1, some of it deserved, some of it unfair.  Brennan responded with a strong night going 23 of 37 for 337 yards, 4 TD's and 1 INT.  Brennan looked much more comfortable this week.  He stepped up in the pocket and was much more decisive in his throws and decision making.  The one INT was a bad miss, but the 4 TD's are tied for the second most by an LSU QB in an SEC game.  After two weeks, Brennan is ranked 4th in the SEC and 18th in the nation in QB efficiency.

* No Chris Curry?  No problem. John Emery carried the ball 12 times for 103 yards.  This is what was expected from the 5 start recruit when he enrolled at LSU.  He looked hungry and decisive.

* Terrance Marshall is a legit #1 receiver and probable first round NFL pick.  Brennan has completed passes to 11 players through two games.  It will be interesting if anyone emerges as a solid #2 option for the Tigers.

* LSU is 9 of 29 (31%) on 3rd down conversions. The Tigers must get better if they are to win these tougher matches later in the season.

Defense

* The defense was excellent this week after a historic collapse in week one. After giving up 623 passing yards last week, the Tigers held Vandy to only 113 yards Saturday.  The Commodores did rush for 153 yards on 43 carries.

* Eli Ricks is tied for second in the country with two INT's on the season.  He looks like another great corner for the Tigers going forward.

* Mississippi State's loss to Arkansas showed just how poor a job Pelini did in the opening game.  Arkansas dropped 8 in coverage many times and forced Costello to throw underneath.  He finished with one TD and three INT's.  I think the LSU defensive staff would really like a do over.  Let's hope Pelini learned something.

Special Teams

* Special teams looked great once again.  Stingley had three punt returns for 92 yards.

On Tap

LSU returns home to play 0-2 Missouri on October 10th.  LSU is favored by 20 points.  Missouri is giving up 418 yards a game, 171 of that on the ground.  Missouri has played two QB's in the first two games with mixed results.  My biggest question going into next Saturday is, can LSU get better on 3rd down on both sides of the ball? Look for LSU to continue to improve building up to the clash with Florida in the Swamp in week four.  

LSU 38 - Missouri 20

Air Raid Bombs Tigers

 

In retrospect, maybe we should have seen it coming.  LSU had only three starters on the field  from last season's national title game.  New faces were all over the field and on the sidelines.  Mike Leach has a senior QB to run his highly successful Air Raid offense.  Regardless, Saturday may have been one of the worst defensive performances in LSU history.  Let's break it all down.

Offense

* Miles Brennan was a little disappointing.  He finished with 345 yards and 3 TD's, but he never seemed comfortable or in command.  Maybe I expected too much after Joe Burrow.  In his defense, it was his first start and he was harried all game long.  The running game was only moderately effective. The receivers dropped some passes.  I do think there is room for Brennan to grow.  He will improve as the season goes along and I expect him to be one of the better QB's in the league by the end of the season.

* The offensive line was poor. Brennan was sacked seven times.  Some of them were on him, but there were a number of free rushers or linemen just getting beat in their one on one assignments.  The run game improved in the second half, but there is a lot of work to be done.

* The receivers were a mixed bag.  I believe Terrance Marshall (#6) had two drops, the most critical was on LSU's last drive.  Jaray Jenkins (#10) was a very nice surprise.  For all the hype we heard about Arik Gilbert (#2), I didn't see it.  He dropped the first pass thrown his way and his blocking was awful at times.  He's a true freshman and I know he will get much better, but that was far from a great start.

* Going into this game under Coach O, LSU was 31-3 when they gained more than 400 yards of total offense and 36-1 when scoring more than 30 points.  LSU did both yet still lost by 10. 

Defense

* Ali Gaye (#11) had a really nice game at his defensive end position.  He finished with three total tackles, two tackles for loss and a sack.  He also batted down multiple passes and brought pressure throughout the game.  Jabril Cox (#19) also played well.  He made a great play on a Costello pass which resulted in a pick six for the Tigers.

* LSU is number 1 in the country in rushing defense.  LSU is also dead last in the country in passing defense.

* LSU will have to give up the mantle of DBU for a while.  State did a great job of identifying the Tiger's weakest man in the secondary and went at him. It was a complete debacle across the board.  Darren Evans (#26) is completely out of his depth at this level.  Eli Ricks (#1) had a nice INT in the second half, but looked like a true freshman for most of the game.  Jay Ward (#5) had some nice moments, but he was beaten badly on Costello's final TD pass. Even Cordale Flott (#25), arguably LSU's best corner on the field had a rough outing.  JaCoby Stevens (#7) played well.  His leadership will be key going forward.

* The LSU defense forced 4 turnovers yet still allowed 44 points.

Special Teams

* No complaints here.  Tigers were very effective all game.

LSU goes on the road next week to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores gave A&M all they wanted in College Station losing 17-12.  I think that game says a lot more about A&M than it does Vandy.  Look for lots of improvement on both sides of the ball from the Tigers.  Vandy only mustered 255 total yards on offense against the Aggies.  Let's see if LSU's defense can rebound.  Offensively, let's see if the offensive line can take some steps forward to get the running game going.

Before Saturday, I thought LSU could compete with the top teams in the SEC this season but not win the division.  Right now, they look more like a 5-5 team than an 8-2 squad.  The Tigers need to rally...quickly.  This season will be a real test for coach O.  

LSU 38 - Vandy 24

Game week...Finally!!

At times I didn't know if we were going to make it.  But we are here!  Game week!

Many national pundits are questioning the Tigers this season.  It is not uncommon to see LSU ranked as low as 4th in the Western Division in some predictions.  The focus has been exclusively about what LSU has lost.  It is a mistake to overlook what LSU has coming back.

LSU goes into this weekend's opener a 16.5 point favorite, telling me the folks in Vegas still have faith in the Tigers.  Three things to look for:

1. Can LSU's three headed running attack get rolling?  Curry, Davis-Price and Emery are all listed as co-starters at the running back position on the depth chart released by Coach O today.  Establishing some rhythm in the running game will take pressure off QB Miles Brennan.

2. What will we see from the defense in terms of pressure and play calling?  Coach O has publicly expressed his displeasure with LSU's 2019 defense on more than one occasion.  In fairness, LSU finished 4th in the SEC in tackles for loss per game and 5th in sacks per game.  The real issue was redzone defense.  Opponents scored TD's on 65% of their redzone opportunities.  That ranked 12th in the SEC and 93rd in the country.

3. Last season, LSU outscored its 15 opponents 249 to 91 in the second quarter.  LSU was never outscored by an opponent in the second quarter in 2019.  The average half time score for the Tigers was 27-10.  Can LSU maintain that first half focus and put early pressure on opponents?

I expect LSU to come out throwing and running tempo against Mississippi State.  State will also come out throwing Leach's Air-Raid offense.  Look for LSU and new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini to pressure State's transfer QB KJ Costello.  I like the match-up of our secondary versus their receivers. Close early, but LSU will pull away with a balanced attack.

LSU 38 - State 20

College Football Playoff

Each week I will post my picks for the playoffs.

Alabama, Clemson, Texas, Ohio State

2020 SEC Predictions

 

2020 Predictions

East 

 

1. Georgia        (9-1) 

2. Florida         (8-2) 

3. Tennessee    (5-5) 

4. Kentucky     (5-5) 

5. Missouri       (3-7) 

6. S. Carolina   (2-8) 

7. Vanderbilt    (0-10) 

 

West 

 

1. Alabama       (10-0) 

2. LSU              (8-2) 

3. Texas A&M  (7-3) 

4. Auburn          (6-4) 

5. Miss. State     (4-6) 

6. Ole Miss        (3-7) 

      Arkansas       (0-10)

Tid Bits 

 

• *  Alabama is hungry and led by a senior QB.  They are the most talented team in the country.  I think they win the West, the SEC Title and the National Championship.  (It hurts to write that.) 

 

• *  Florida’s Kyle Trask is the highest rated returning QB in the SEC this season.  But the line needs to be rebuilt and I don’t see the playmakers to support Trask. 

 

• *  I’m going with Georgia to win the East even though I am not sold on Georgia’s QB situation.  Jamie Newman transferred in from Wake Forest where he finished 9th in the ACC last season in passing efficiency (conference games only).  The other QB transfer is JT Daniels from USC.  Daniels tore his ACL in the first game of the 2019 season.  He is not as experienced as Newman, but he is more talented.  Georgia’s defense is outstanding once again which will have to carry this team. 

 

• *  I hope Mike Leach does well at State.  I like the offense and he’s an interesting guy to have in the league.   

 

• *  Tennessee’s schedule is brutal, at Georgia, Alabama, A&M, at Auburn and Florida at home to end the season. 

 

• *  Kentucky will be pretty good, but the schedule will be difficult to navigate.  UK is getting some media hype as a “surprise team.”  I just don’t see it. 

 

• *  Another “hyped” team is A&M.  Again, I’m not buying it.  QB Kellen Mond is an average guy.  In six games last season versus teams with a winning record he threw 7 TDs and 4 INT’s.  His QB rating was a 112.08 in those games.  Those are worse numbers than Jordan Jefferson put up! 

 

• *  I have Auburn at 6-4, but they could end up 4-6 if things go poorly early.  The opening game versus UK is a big key for them as Georgia is in week two. 

 

• *  Arkansas, Ole, Miss, Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt will really struggle. A 10 game SEC schedule is a nightmare for these schools.  Don’t expect the SEC to go to a permanent 9 or 10 game conference schedule any time soon.