Inside the numbers...

 

Brandon Harris has played in 5 true road games (at Auburn, at MSU, at Syracuse, at Alabama and at Ole Miss) and one semi-road game (Wisconsin at Lambeau).  His numbers from those games are just plain ugly.

 

Opponent	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TD’s	INT’s
Auburn	14	3	58	0	0
MSU	14	9	71	0	0
Syracuse	16	8	157	1	0
Alabama	19	6	128	1	1
Ole Miss	51	26	271	1	1
Wisconsin	21	12	131	1	2
TOTALS	64	135	816	4	4

 

That’s a 47.4% completion rate and 6 yards per attempt.  The young man simply does not have the poise to play in hostile environments.  This isn’t a personal attack or a question of his character or anything like that.  It’s an observation that was encapsulated in the game sealing interception against Wisconsin.  The stage and the situation are just too big for him.

 

Bruce Feldman wrote a great book called “The QB: The Making of Modern Quarterbacks” which I read a year or two ago.  In it, there is a repeated reference to guys having that “it factor.”  Be it confidence, poise, swagger or composure, it was deemed an integral part of success of a college and pro QB.  It’s become painfully obvious that Harris doesn’t have “it.”

 

With road games at Auburn, at Florida, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M, LSU’s prospects with Harris look exceedingly dim.  I have been to all of those stadiums minus Arkansas.  They can get ridiculously loud and intimidating.  All of those teams will be crowding the line and daring Harris to make a play.  I genuinely hope he can figure this out, but I’m not holding my breath.

Welcome to the Les Miles Farewell Tour

As the first quarter closed I realized that all my hopes for this season were misplaced. I knew nothing would change on the offense, but I hoped maybe LSU would efficiently execute Miles' pre-historic game plan. Nope. LSU's offense looked like a steaming pile of garbage. As I sat in the stands at Lambeau field at the half, I genuinely wanted to leave, walk away from the disappointment, walk away from Miles' cluelessness, walk away from watching bad football. Of course I stuck it out, only to be disappointed again as Harris threw a pass straight to a defender with a minute left. It was first down, LSU only need a few more yards for a reasonable FG attempt. But the game was over and all thoughts of a special season went out the window.

Miles is now 2-4 in his last 6 games. In those 6 games, LSU has scored 16, 14, 17, 19, 56 and 14 points. Clearly the offense is broken and Miles has done NOTHING to fix the problem. His brush with getting fired changed nothing in his mind about LSU's offensive woes or philosophy.

LSU's national rankings in passing yards per game since 2009:

2009: 97

2010: 107

2011: 106

2012: 94

2013: 45

2014: 116

2015: 106

2016: 107

We call this a systemic problem. With as much talent as LSU has had, it's absurd that these numbers exist. Unless the players make an amazing turn around, Miles will be gone at the end of the season, a season too late. A few observations:

• If I was Joe Aleva, I would be telling anyone that would listen, “I told you so.”
• To all the fans that said keep Miles, you are fully deserving of the crappy brand of football you saw on Saturday.
• Harris is still erratic, inaccurate and lacks poise. The INT to end the game was just brutal. Just a terrible play from a guy that's started as many games as he has.
• Feel bad for Fournette. He's not going to win a Heisman trophy because Miles has refused to embrace a more open offense. He did have 176 all-purpose yards.
• The offensive line was poor. There were multiple missed assignments and breakdowns. The tackles struggled with the edge rushers and even when LSU had a nice play called the linemen didn't deliver.
• The defense couldn't get off the field at times. But they only gave up 16 points and forced three turnovers. An OK showing under a new coordinator.
• Tre'davious White had a great game. The pick 6 energized the Tigers then a fumble recovery on the next series set up LSU's second TD.
• Wisconsin is going to win some football games this season. A really tough schedule may keep them out of the Big Ten Title game. Their staff did a great job preparing for LSU.

Looking Ahead

The Tigers return home to face Jacksonville State on Saturday. We should win easily but Jacksonville State has given other SEC teams fits the last few years. Very curious to see how the players respond. I expect a very sluggish start but eventually LSU will win a game that is much closer than it should be.

Looking down the road, LSU should beat Miss St., Mizzu, Southern Miss and South Alabama. Games against Alabama and Florida will most likely be losses. The remaining games versus Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M are all toss ups. I know its only one game, but at this point, the Tigers look like an 8-4 football team, at best.

Some would argue that Miles strengthened his position after last year's late season fiasco. I disagree. Every loss strengthens Aleva's argument that Miles should have been replaced last season. Miles refused to make any significant changes regarding the offense which shows he will NEVER change. He's at an age where he will go down doing it his way. Damn the consequences. It is clear LSU will not win anything of significance with Miles as coach and LSU fans deserve better. #FireLesMiles

LSU 17 – J' State 16

Playoffs Week 1:

That didn't take long!  One week and I lost one of my playoff teams.  No matter, plenty of time to get the other three knocked off.

Alabama, TCU, Michigan, Florida State

2016 Predictions

Conference Champs

ACC:  Florida State

Big Ten: Ohio State

Big 12: TCU

Pac 12: UCLA

SEC: LSU


Top 5 games of the season:


LSU v. Alabama
FSU v. Clemson
Ohio State v. Michigan
TCU v. Oklahoma
Oklahoma v. Ohio State

Coaches most likely to get fired:

 

Darrell Hazell, Purdue – 2-22 in the Big Ten over 3 years is not good.

Gus Malzahn, Auburn – after a 2013 trip to the National Title Game, Auburn has gone 6-10 in the SEC and is looking at another tough season.  A 6-6 record and another loss to Alabama will make things interesting at the end of the season.

Paul Petrino, Idaho – Going 6-29 in your first 3 seasons leaves no room for error in year 4.

 

Three BOLD Predictions:

 

Stanford will go 6-6.  A new QB and road games at UCLA, Washington, Oregon and Notre Dame will cause Stanford lots of problems.

 

Brandon Harris will have 20+ TD passes.  I really don’t have any argument to back this up.

 

Michigan will go 12-0 in the regular season.  Call it the second year bounce.  Looking at recent history, a number of coaches have done very well in the second year at a school. A few examples:

 

Urban Meyer, Florida 2006 (11-1) won National Title

Nick Saban, Alabama 2008 (12-0)

Gene Chizik, Auburn 2010 (12-0) won National Title

Chip Kelly, Oregon 2010 (12-0) played for National Title

Playoffs: LSU, TCU, Michigan, Florida State

LSU Preview

I want to believe. I really do. I want to believe that Les Miles can still win big games. I want to believe that LSU can beat Alabama. I want to believe that LSU will have good quarterback play. I want to believe all of those things. Because if they are all true, it means that LSU will be in the playoffs at the end of the season. It means that LSU will have won its first division and SEC Title since 2011. It means that joy and merriment will be back in Tiger Town.

The numbers back up the idea of an LSU team poised for great things. Phil Steele has LSU ranked 8th in the country in most experience returning. (math nerds can click here) The Tigers have 11 senior starters. Over 97% of last year’s offensive production is returning. Oh…and LSU has that Fournette dude.



The problem is I can’t shake the feeling that Miles is going to play things too safe. One reason for Alabama’s success is their ability to put teams away and play in very few tight games. Les Miles seems just the opposite. The Tigers are always seemingly in tight games, and if you play in enough of those, you will come up short because your margin of error is so small.

OFFENSE

The offense can be broken down as follows:

1. Brandon Harris must be more consistent.
2. The receivers need to catch the ball.
3. The offensive line must jell.
4. Mr. Fournette needs to be himself.

Harris ranked 7th in the league is QB efficiency in 2015. The main knock on him was inaccuracy. Completing only 53.6% of his passes put Harris at 95th in the country in that category. Certainly drops hurt him, but he missed a number of balls that should have been on target. To see the two sides of Harris’ season, compare these two stretches of games. First the Tigers played South Carolina, Florida and Western Kentucky to round out October. Then the next four games were against Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.

Record	Comp. %	Yards/Att.	TD-INT
3-0	62.7	10.7	7-0
1-3	47.6	6.4	3-5

The numbers are quite stark and show a complete collapse by Harris in the month of November. 

So what do we look for in 2016?  One would hope that with a complete year under his belt the game will slow down a bit for Harris.  Will he read through his progressions more effectively and quicker to get the ball out on time and accurately? 


Another aspect of his game that I would like to see is the ability to make a play when the pocket breaks down. I’m sure Cam Cameron is focused on making Harris a better pocket passer, but he is also a dangerous as a rusher. In 2015, Harris averaged 6.9 yards per carry. (Excluding sack yardage)


DEFENSE


LSU has plenty of experience coming back for 2016.  However, recent injuries to Christian LaCouture (DE), Isaiah Washington (LB) and Corey Thompson (S) will test LSU’s depth.  The Tigers have plenty of talent to step into those roles, but the younger plays will have to step up quickly.


LSU’s new defensive coordinator is highly respected and brings with him a highly successful resume.  Over the last three seasons, Wisconsin has had one of the best defenses in the country.

Season	Total yards	Yards/play	Scoring D	Opp. 3rd Down Conv. %
2013	305.1 (7)	4.73 (8)	16.3 (6)	30.7% (4)
2014	294.1 (4)	4.91 (21)	20.8 (17)	28.4% (3)
2015	268.5 (2)	4.41 (4)	13.7 (1)	31.2% (11)

* Number in parenthesis national rank.


LSU is switching to a 3-4 alignment from a 4-3.  Here are the wiki links that explain the 3-4 and the 4-3 if your are curious.  Most importantly the Tigers have multiple NFL players on the defensive side of the ball.  This group has the opportunity to be the best unit since the 2011 defense that dominated college football. 


Given the talent level that LSU has, many, including me, are expecting big things from LSU’s defense.


SPECIAL TEAMS


Kick coverage in 2015 was atrocious, easily the worst in the Miles era.  All we can do is hope that it gets better.  LSU has solid kickers and this area will hopefully be a strength for the Tigers.  Colby Delahoussaye returns for his senior season and should handle the PK duties.  Another Aussie, Josh Growden, is the likely punter.

2016 SEC Predictions

SEC East 

1. Tennessee
2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. Kentucky
5. Missouri
6. South Carolina
7. Vanderbilt

SEC West 

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Ole Miss
4. Auburn
5. Texas A&M
6. Arkansas
7. Mississippi State

Is this finally the year that Rocky Top puts it all together?  Can anyone topple Alabama?  Who will be the first coach to get fired?  Should be another great season in the SEC.

Les Miles, Year 12

Les Miles carried off after 2015 victory over Texas A&M

November 21, 2015

            As Laquon Treadwell gathered Chad Kelly’s TD pass to put Ole Miss up 23-0, I was firmly convinced that Miles was done.  After a 7-0 start and a #2 national ranking, the Tigers imploded losing three in a row for the first time in the Miles era.  The wheels had finally come off and surely the head coach would be shown the door.  The talk was LSU had a lead on Jimbo Fisher as Miles’ replacement.

Fast forward one week and all the speculation and drama was for naught.  After an ugly and just plain hard to watch 19-7 win over A&M, Miles was retained for at least one more season.  Joe Aleva didn’t sound terribly happy about the sudden turn of events and I didn’t blame him.  From everything I read, LSU’s President, F. King Alexander, decided to retain Miles for reasons that had nothing to do with football.

Today

            Personally I was ready to see Miles go if we had Fisher lined up.  I was tired of LSU’s offensive woes and Miles’ dubious game management.  In an age of prolific wide open offenses, LSU is still playing football in a phone booth.  So here we are about to embark on season number 12 with Les.  The only LSU coaches with longer tenures are Bernie Moore (1935-1947) and Charles McClendon (1962-1979).

             How does Miles stack up against his contemporaries?  I went back three years and looked at divisional and conference records for the six other coaches in the West.  The numbers are as follows:

Coach	Divisional Record	Conference Record	Overall Record
Saban	15-3	23-3*	37-5
Freeze	10-8	14-10	27-12
Miles	9-9	14-10	27-11
Malzahn	9-9	14-11*	27-13
Mullen	8-10	13-11	26-13
Sumlin	7-11	11-13	25-14
Bielema	5-13	7-17	18-20

* Includes SEC Title Game.

             It goes without saying that Saban is in a class all his own, but the rest of the coaches in the division are bunched around the .500 mark.  As a footnote, Miles was 13-2 in divisional play his first three seasons as LSU’s coach.
             Clearly this is a crucial year for Miles.  LSU is deep and experienced in 2016.  The Tigers get Alabama and Ole Miss at home.  The media slelected Alabama to win the SEC…again.  But Tiger fans are only going to be so patient.  One division title in eight years has LSU fans frustrated. 
              A Michigan Man that loses five in a row to Ohio State would be on the hottest of hot seats.  The seat of an LSU Man who has lost five in a row to Alabama is not much cooler.  There are no excuses this season.  Can the Mad Hatter conjure up more magic for the 2016 season?

Running for Glory

 

One third of LSU’s season is on the books and some questions have been answered while others still hang in the air.

What we know…

* Leonard Fournette is a monster.  Fournette is the front runner for the Heisman Trophy and has plenty more opportunities to cement his position.  He’s on pace to rush for 2300 yards which I don’t think is realistic.  But he has the potential to break 1600 yards with 20+ TD’s.

* LSU’s offensive line is good and getting better each week.  The Tigers are also building depth in that group.

* The receivers still drop too many passes.  I hear all the talk about that group, but I am unimpressed thus far.

* Brandon Harris can handle the job.  He’s done everything the coaches have asked of him.  He was the biggest question mark and he’s really delivered.

What we don’t know…

* How good is this defense?  The Tigers rank 5^th in the SEC giving up 4.46 yards per play.  The pass defense has been effective giving up only 5.3 yards an attempt, tied for best in the SEC.  But the big plays on defense haven’t really been there.  The Tigers are 11^th in the SEC in tackles for loss per game and tied for last in the conference in total takeaways.  The Tigers are averaging three sacks per game, a stark improvement over the last year.  LSU’s next four opponents are not particularly strong on offense, so we may have to wait until the Alabama game until we get a true read on the Tiger defense.

* Will Brandon Harris be able to make throws when LSU needs him to make a play?  He has not had to make any plays in crunch time and we just won’t know until we get there.  South Carolina will be another good road test for Harris.  A home game against Florida will present the best defense LSU will have faced up until that point.  With Cameron’s coaching and time to bring Harris along slowly, I am optimistic that things will continue to go well at the position.

* Can Miles find his 2007 coaching mojo? Miles played to win that season and LSU won a National Title.  Since then, game plans have been generally more conservative.  The Tigers will have to take some risks to overcome Ole Miss and Alabama on the road.  Will the “play to win” Les show up in those games and give the Tigers a chance?

No worries this week.  Fournette gets his 200+ yards and 3 TD’s before finding the bench in the 3^rd quarter.

 LSU 55 – Eastern Michigan 10

 

 

 

In no particular order – Ohio State, Baylor, Georgia, Utah

LSU 2015 Preview

 

 

2015 is LSU’s 11th season under Les Miles, and accordingly, another season with ominous questions about the QB position.  Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris will again compete for the starting spot on another talented LSU squad.  Neither has inspired much confidence in their careers at LSU.  Jennings has career numbers of 124 of 256 for 1,792 yards, 8 INT’s and 12 TD’s.  While his completion percentage is a wretched 48.4%, his 7 yards per attempt is…average.  There are just not a lot of good things to say about Jennings play or his numbers.  Harris has so few snaps under his belt the numbers are almost meaningless.  It’s undisputed that Harris has the most talent and upside.  But Jennings has the experience.

2015 is LSU’s 11th season under Les Miles, and accordingly, another season with ominous questions about the QB position.  Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris will again compete for the starting spot on another talented LSU squad.

The general consensus coming out of fall practice is that Harris has pulled away from Jennings and will eventually be the starter.  TAKE IT TO THE BANK, unless Harris gets hurt, he will be the starter for LSU’s opening game.

The rest of the team is in very good shape.  A quick preview of the offense and defense:

OFFENSE

The offensive line has a mix of experience and youth.  Last season LSU was able to run effectively at times against 8 man fronts.  With a (hopefully) improved passing game, this group is talented enough to lead LSU to a big season.  All the skill players are back which should help the passing game move forward.  Leonard Fournette is a beast and will only be better this season.  He is getting a lot of talk for the Heisman which is great for him and LSU, but he won’t win it.  Not because he’s not talented enough, but because of two factors out of his control.  Number one, he won’t get enough touches.  He really needs to get between 25-30 a game to get the kind of numbers needed to push for that top spot.  Number two, LSU just is not good enough as a team to push for a spot in the playoffs.  But an invite to New York is a definite possibility.

DEFENSE

The departure of John Chavis will make this an interesting transition year for the defense.  The secondary is the star unit on that side of the ball.  Jalen Mills has started since his freshmen year and can be counted on to play well every week.  Jamal Adams is an elite player who will eventually be a first round draft pick.  The defensive line has question marks but Davon Godchaux and Christian Lacouture should be solid in the middle.  Kendall Beckwith is an All-SEC player at middle linebacker and will anchor LSU’s defense.  This unit has future NFL players all over the field.  If new coordinator Kevin Steele can get everyone on the same page, look out.

Odds and Ends

* Over the last 10 years, LSU has the 6^th best home winning percentage in college football at 87.5%.  That also ranks 1^st in the SEC.  Think about that for a moment.  While the SEC won an unprecedented SEVEN national titles in a row and clearly staked its claim as the toughest conference in America, Tiger Stadium was the toughest SEC venue for opponents to “secure victory.”  Well done Tigers.  Those on the field and those in the stands can take a bow.

* Since 2009, the Tigers are 34-4 in Tiger Stadium.  The only losses coming to a Tebow led Gators team that finished 13-1 (2009), eventual National Champion Alabama (2012), a Mississippi State team that reached the #1 spot in the polls that season (2014) and an Alabama squad that reached the College Football Playoff (2014).  

* LSU ranks 13th in the country and 2nd in the SEC in conference winning percentage over that last 10 years.  Miles has won 69% of his SEC games since arriving.  As expected, Bama is 1st in the SEC winning 76.5% of its conference games over that same period.

* LSU has won 49 consecutive non-conference games, the longest in FBS history.  With LSU's non-conference schedule this season, the Tigers are a good bet to get to 53 in a row.

Final Thoughts

It’s undisputed that LSU is one of the more talented teams in the country.  But the question has always been, “who is going to play quarterback for the Tigers?”  With Brandon Harris under center, LSU becomes a real wild card in the SEC West.  As noted earlier, LSU has been dominant at home.  The only team I see that has the potential to be good enough to come into Tiger Stadium this season and get a win is Auburn.  Texas A&M and Arkansas will be real tests while I expect Florida to struggle.  The big road games are obviously Alabama and Ole Miss.

Given the news coming out of camp and what I have heard through a few people I trust, I am confident Harris will be the starter this season.  I’ve updated my preview for the SEC West based on Harris’ potential at the QB position.  I think the Tigers can go 10-2 this season, if not better.  If LSU can get past Miss. State and Auburn early, the Tigers could go into the Alabama game 8-0.  Now wouldn’t that be something?

SEC West

This is possibly the toughest year to try and pick the winner of the SEC West.  There are so many questions about each team. 

Alabama is loaded again, but all of the top skill guys are gone (Sims, Yeldon and Cooper).  The offensive line is relatively inexperienced with only 40 starts between the entire unit.  Compare that to Ole Miss which has a whopping 120 starts between its returning offensive linemen.  The defense will be top notch as always.  The Tide get Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee at home but must travel to Auburn and Georgia.

Arkansas is a real wild card this season.  The Hogs were very close to pulling early season upsets before going 3-1 to end the year.  During that four game stretch, Arkansas beat LSU, Ole Miss and Texas by a combined score of 78-7.  Plenty of experience returns on both sides of the ball including senior QB Brandon Allen.  Arkansas plays Auburn at home but must visit Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU.

 

Auburn probably has the best QB in the league but only returns two starters on offense.  The defense will improve under Muschamp but by how much remains to be seen.  Using Phil Steele’s calculations, Auburn ranks 115^th of 128 teams in returning experience.  The Tigers will have a lot of learning to do as the season progresses. Auburn gets Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama at home with road trips to LSU and Arkansas.

LSU has been plagued by poor QB play.  It appears Harris will be the starter for LSU on opening night.  Effective QB play could make LSU a contender in the SEC West. The Tigers return many key players on both sides of the ball but questions will be asked about the defense led by new coordinator Kevin Steele.  LSU has regressed a bit each year since 2011.  The Tigers get Florida, Texas A&M, Auburn and Arkansas at home but must travel to Ole Miss and Alabama.

Mississippi State had a fantastic year in 2014.  But it won’t be repeated in 2015.  There are way too many losses on the offensive line.  The schedule will be markedly tougher as well as State gets LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss at home while traveling to Auburn, A&M, Arkansas and Mizzu.

Ole Miss is again a media darling with multiple publications placing them right outside of the Top 10.  The hype may be warranted. As I mentioned earlier, the OL is loaded with experience.  Clemson transfer Chad Kelly replaces “Good/Bad” Bo Wallace at QB.  The defense was nasty last year but ultimately wore down as the season went on giving up 35, 30, 17 and 42 in the last four games of the season vs. FBS competition.  The home schedule includes Arkansas and LSU with away trips to Alabama, Auburn and Florida.

Texas A&M was supposed to be the “big” addition to the league in 2012.  But Missouri has easily outclassed A&M the past three seasons.  Since joining the league, the Aggies are 13-11 in conference play.  The Mizzu Tigers are a 16-12 in conference which includes two trips to the SEC title game.  A&M will have a new starter at QB as Kenny Hill was eventually benched last season and transferred.  The defense will be better with John Chavis taking over.  But there is a question of whether his defense will be as efficient with A&M’s up tempo style on offense.  A&M has road games at LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss and home dates with Alabama and Auburn.

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Auburn
4. Ole Miss
5. Arkansas
6. Texas A&M
7. Miss. State

2015 SEC Preview

I literally copied this from last year’s preseason post.  Again there is a big turnover at the QB position in the SEC this season with Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Ole Miss all losing their starters from 2014.  Add that to the questions about LSU and Vandy and you have quite a few unknowns going into 2015.

A few thoughts:

* Here is a breakdown of the 28 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	10	7-3
Junior	11	6-5
Sophomore	7	1-6
Freshman	0	0-0

* I beat this dead horse every year, but the odds are heavily stacked against teams with underclass QB’s.  To put this in perspective, while Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel both won Heisman Trophies as underclassmen, neither won the division in those Heisman seasons.

* While the consensus seems to be that Alabama and Georgia will meet in Atlanta for the SEC Title, I'm going to go in a little bit different direction.  From the East, I'm picking Tennessee to make it back to the SEC Championship game for the first time since 2007.  The Vols have recruited very well and live in the much less fearsome SEC East.  I also like Alabama to win the West.  The Tide are again loaded and there are just too many questions from the other contenders.

* Alabama will win the SEC and make it to the CFP only to again lose in the semi-finals to...Ohio State.