End of an Era

Nick Brossette fumbles on LSU's first offensive play.

If it didn't end badly, it wouldn't end at all.

-Anonymous

In November of 1999, Gerry DiNardo was fired before the last game of the season. DiNardo had gone 2-13 in his last 15 SEC games ensuring his departure. Then the LSU athletic department made a program defining decision to hire Nick Saban. Saban led LSU to two SEC Titles and its first National Championship since 1958.

It was not the smoothest start. In his first season, Saban lost to UAB at home 13-10. It was the last non-conference loss by the Tigers at home up until Saturday. Walking to the car from the game I couldn't help but notice the symmetry. LSU has now come full circle after an incredible 17 year run that marks the greatest stretch in LSU history.

Fans need to prepare themselves for for a very different future than they have grown accustomed. Thus far, the Orgeron era is playing out as many of the skeptics feared. The Tigers are 3-2 and will probably be underdogs for every game the rest of the way.

I'm starting to believe Les Miles left this program in even worse shape than I originally thought. Both lines are undermanned and lack the talent of previous seasons. Key is a shadow of his former self. Etling is who he is. Two true freshmen are playing on the offensive line. There appears to be a real lack of leadership in the locker room. (maybe that is changing?)

I had a friend describe Orgeron as a cajun used car salesman. I think the description fits. Many times I called Miles the village idiot for some of the things he said and did. Alleva fired Miles to hire a smooth talking good ole boy from South Louisiana. Leadership is an innate ability. It can't be taught or learned in a book. Some guys have it and some don't. I want to give Orgeron the benefit of the doubt, but it is very difficult from what I have seen thus far.

So where do we as fans go from here?

Orgeron is not getting fired this season. He could finish 3-9 with a 60 point loss to Alabama and he will be LSU's coach in 2018. At the end of the 2018 season the buyout will still be about $5.8 million if my interpretation of his buyout clause is accurate.  Anyone who thinks they know where the Tigers will be at that point is deluding themselves.

Screaming for the coach to be fired is pointless, silly and counterproductive. The goal should be to support the players and get to 6 wins to make a bowl.  I think we can all agree that the Tigers need the extra practice time that comes with bowl preparation. It's OK to be disappointed, angry and frustrated.  But folks need to come to grips with what LSU football is right now.  

Why is the buyout so big?

To protect Orgeron AND Alleva. These two are tied at the hip at this point. If the hiring of Orgeron didn't work out, Alleva knew he'd be shown the door as well. So what did Alleva do? He wrote himself an insurance policy that the LSU Board of Supervisors negligently signed off on. No other explanation makes sense. LSU had all the leverage and still gave Orgeron a contract he in no way deserved.

LSU is a big time program now. The LSU athletic department was recently valued by the Wall Street Journal at $910 million, fifth in the nation. I am confident that the Tigers will at some point return to the championship form we have seen the last 17 years. But to do that Alleva must go. His most important task since coming on as AD was to find a replacement for Les Miles. Unless something dramatic happens, his search and subsequent selection of Orgeron is heading toward being a complete debacle. He cannot under any circumstances be allowed to be involved in the next coaching search.

As for the play on the field, I honestly can't find one good thing to say.

Offense:

1. 4 turnovers. The first on the very first offensive play.
2. 0-8 on third down conversions. For the season, Etling is 14 for 30 on third downs for 106 yards and 6 first downs. When he has passed on third down this season, the Tigers are only converting 20% of the time. Some comparisons:

	Attempts	Completions	First Downs	Conversion %
J. Jefferson (2009)	76	43	28	36.8
J. Lee (2011)	53	27	20	37.7
Z. Mettenberger (2013)	89	58	49	55.1
A. Jennings (2014)	85	40	28	32.9
B. Harris (2015)	93	47	32	34.4
D. Etling (2016)	77	45	29	37.7
D. Etling (2017)	30	14	6	20.0

In fairness, Etling has been fantastic on 1^st and 2^nd down. (45 of 67 for 799 yards and 5 TDs)

3. The Tigers are tied for 103 in the country in red zone conversions.

Defense:

1. Poor tackling is systemic.
2. 2016 red zone TD% - 24.2. 2017 red zone TD% 50.
3. LSU gave up 7 rushing TD's all last season. The Tigers have given up 7 this season already to arguably the five weakest teams on the schedule.

Special Teams

The FG kicking is terrible.  That is all i'm going to say about that.

Up Next

LSU is somehow only a 3.5 point underdog at Florida. I have seen absolutely nothing from LSU to think they can beat UF much less keep the game under one score. Florida seems to be improving every week as the Tigers regress. The Gators QB, Felipe Franks, will run for at least 80 yards and a TD and will give LSU fits all afternoon. Etling will be under pressure as soon as he steps off the bus. The calls for Alleva and Da Coach O's heads will only get louder.

LSU 13 – Florida 27

Other Random Thoughts

1. How good is Bama? I will consider it a victory if LSU stays within 5 TD's of the Tide.

2. Butch Jones is gone at Tennessee. Last year the door was wide open for the Vols to turn the corner and he didn't get it done. This was a rebuild year but with no goodwill to support him, the end is near.

3. Miami, TCU and Washington State are a combined 12-0 and all have legit shots to win their leagues.

4. On top of everything else, LSU's highest rated 2018 recruit decommitted on Monday.

Playoffs:

Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, Georgia