The realist says, “LSU has looked OK thus far and is fortunate to be where they are. The season could go anywhere from here.”
The optimist says, “LSU is ranked #4 in the country and has the potential to be a very good team.”
The pessimist says, “LSU is #4 in the country this week?! Obviously the voters haven’t seen us play. It’s all downhill from here!”
Thus four people can see the exact same team yet draw different conclusions after four weeks.
Throw into the mix LSU’s statistical numbers (CLICK HERE) and it is fair to walk away scratching your head. With all the bad numbers, how is LSU 4-0?
*The Tigers are +7 in the turnover department. LSU already has 7 INT’s this season after only 8 all of last year. The offense, while not terribly productive, has only turned the ball over three times this season.
*LSU’s passing efficiency defense is ranked 10th in the nation. Thus far, the defense has made plays when needed. Look no further than the last two weeks. Two goal line stands late in each game are successes to build on.
*Jefferson has been efficient if not spectacular. Look at his numbers broken down here. Notice his second half numbers and his proficiency on third down and 6 yards or less and 7 yards or more. With any sort of running game Jefferson can be very effective.
*The Tigers have three non offensive TD’s this season, two this week. It may not be pretty, but LSU is finding a way to win.
*LSU’s schedule has presented a few decent challenges thus far, but no marquee games. LSU’s four opponents are now 8-8. Compare that with Auburn’s and Alabama’s opponents who are 5-9 respectively.
Saturday’s game
LSU’s offense is terrible. Let me clarify that, LSU’s offensive line is terrible.
There is no other way to put it. The Tiger’s offense could only muster 263 total yards of offense and 16 points against the 44th ranked defense in the country. MSU turned the ball over FOUR times yet was in a position to win the game with about a minute left. LSU ran the ball 30 times for 31 total yards. Now included in that stat is 54 negative yards from sacks and bad snaps in the kicking game. But State is ranked 88th in the country in rushing defense. I couldn’t tell you the last time LSU ran the ball for fewer yards. MSU ran 86 offensive plays to LSU’s 59. The defense wore down in the second half as the grossly ineffective offense mustered a mere 85 yards after Lafell’s TD catch very early in the third quarter. The Tigers were a putrid 2 of 13 on third down conversions.
While LSU’s special teams cost the Tigers points with a missed FG, missed XP and a botched punt, Chad Jones saved the day with a 93 yard punt return. A great example of the old adage, ‘its not about the X’s & O’s, its about the Jimmys and Joes’The defense played decent. Peterson had a pick 6 and the rest of the unit forced three other turnovers. But giving up that 50 yard TD pass was inexcusable. The Tigers are not potent enough on offense to give up cheap TD’s and get into a shootout. The goal line stand was a thing of beauty. No one can question LSU's toughness.
At this point, I think LSU is an average team that will go 4-4 down the stretch…if they are lucky.
I think this latest game has exposed some serious issues in year 5 of the Les Miles regime.
*A huge part of that goes to recruiting. While Miles can be forgiven for a small 2005 class finalized only after Saban’s post Christmas departure, the 2006 class was all Miles. Looking at that class, by my count 14 of the 26 players recruited either never made it to campus, were booted off the team, left school or transferred. The core of the “4 star” players in that class never saw the field. The 2007 is a little better, but attrition has taken a toll. By my count 9 players in that class are no longer at LSU.
*On a positive note, the 2008 and 2009 classes have had almost ZERO attrition. Nearly everyone is in school and working to get playing time. It remains to be seen how these classes work out, we won’t know for another two to three years. But two or three consecutive subpar recruiting classes can create an ugly bubble in a coach’s resume.
*The offensive and defensive lines are mediocre. Miles and crew either have done a poor job of evaluating talent or a poor job of developing players. Again, this could be a function of the recruiting. Nevertheless, the offensive line is yet to gel. Working with a young QB can’t help in getting the right blocking calls implemented.
*Questions have to be asked about the offensive staff and the play calling. Mad Hatter, where have you gone? Russell Shepard is averaging almost 7 yards a carry. Why aren’t we using him more? Are we going to burn an entire year of eligibility having him play 3 or 4 plays a game? Should Holliday give way to Shepard? Shepard has Holliday’s speed and quickness with size. Let’s run him on the bubble screens, WR option plays and slot routes. He’s a guy that can create big plays for the offense. Can Jefferson check to new plays? What are we doing to attack these 8 and 9 man fronts Jefferson is seeing?
*Is LSU a middle of the road SEC program now? Are we looking at more 8 win seasons with the occasional 9 or 10 win year interspersed? Is it unrealistic to expect more of this program? From 2003 to 2007, LSU went 56-10. Are those days gone for good with Les running the shop?
I know the coaches have much more at stake than I do. The cumulative coaching salaries at LSU exceed $4 million. But the two year trend thus far is NOT encouraging. With games left against Tulane and La. Tech, I am confident LSU will make a bowl game. But hasn’t LSU risen above such mediocre goals?
October 3rd’s game versus Georgia will NOT make or break this season or Miles’ career. You will probably here a lot of blather about such ideas. I suggest you ignore it. But this IS a yardstick game. LSU and Georgia are similarly situated programs at this point. Both are playing second fiddle at the moment to juggernauts in their respective divisions. Both programs are trying to rebuild and make it back to a BCS bowl.
If LSU can avoid turnovers, play solid defense and be sound in the kicking game, the Tigers have an EXCELLENT shot at winning this game. Georgia’s defense is giving up almost 30 points a game and the Dawgs are -9 in the turnover department. Cox has thrown at least one INT in every game this year and Georgia has fumbled 7 times. The key will be whether LSU can capitalize on Georgia’s mistakes. Hopefully Miles reaches under that hat and pulls out a few tricks. The Advocated quoted Miles saying, “we can be a very, very good football team.” We shall see.
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