LSU v. Florida

I like how things are shaping up in the media for the LSU v. Florida game. No one is picking the Tigers to win and the spread is currently Florida by four. Please, tell the Tigers they have no chance. Talk about the unstoppable Tim Tebow. Gush about the scary and loud “Swamp.” While the talking heads may get this one right, the lack of meaningful analysis by the Sports MSM (main stream media) does fans a disservice. But that’s why you are here in the first place, to get the real story.

Lets look at a few numbers.

0 – the number of 4th quarter comebacks by Tim Tebow.

1- the number of 4th quarter comebacks by Jarrett Lee. Think about that for a moment. Tebow has won the Heisman, yet has never led his team to a 4th quarter comeback. Isn’t a comeback in a tight game with the pressure mounting on each play the epitome of “clutch?”

2 – The number of wins Les Miles has over Urban Meyer

3- Miles is 3-1 in games after the bye week with the only loss coming at the hands of Tennessee after Katrina

6 – In games decided by 6 points or less, Miles is an astounding 11-4 while Meyer comes in at a much more modest 5-4.

75.5 – Tebow’s efficiency rating from last year’s LSU game, the lowest of the season for him and nearly 100 points below his season average.

133.75 – Yards per game rushing for Charles Scott.

140.5 – Average yards rushing given up by the Gators in their last two games.

The match ups on the offensive and defensive line seem to favor LSU. Florida’s defensive line is solid, but LSU may have one of the best lines in the 115 years of the program. These guys have been road graters so far and look stronger every week. On the opposite side, Florida is banged up and has not been consistent protecting Tebow and generating a running game (UF is 41st in rushing offense). LSU’s defensive line has been very strong against the run (LSU is 8th in rushing defense) and their depth allows fresh players to take over in the 4th quarter.

Charles Scott has been an absolute stud and is looking for his 5th consecutive 100 yard game. He is the first LSU player since Charles Alexander in 1978 to start the season with four consecutive 100 yard games. If he is able to make it five and LSU comes out with a win, he will definitely move up the Heisman list.

LSU’s questions are at QB and the back seven of the defense. Lee has looked great the last six quarters, but he’s the same guy that looked very shaky in his first 10. My thought is this, if you can play as well as he did in the second half at Auburn, you can play ANYWHERE. It will be his first road start and I am sure he will be nervous. But with Scott and that offensive line leading the way, I think Crowton will come up with plenty of plays to keep Lee from making any killer mistakes.

As for the LB’s and secondary, look for a lot of crossing routes with Harvin matched up on a LB and a few deep throws by Tebow. I expect more blitzing in this game than we have seen from the Tigers because teams have had some success at getting after Tebow. The blown coverages by LSU's secondary have to end or Florida will put up big numbers.

At the beginning of the season, I picked this game as one of LSU’s two losses, the other being the Auburn game. As I look at the match ups and all the numbers I really, really like LSU this weekend. But the X factor is how well Lee holds up under pressure. He is a redshirt freshman in his first start on the road in a big conference showdown. For this reason alone, reluctantly, I am sticking with my thoughts from the pre-season.

LSU 20 – Florida 24


(Let’s all hope I get this one wrong as well. Geaux Tigers!!)

Tigers better wrap up just as they did last season.