For the Gamblers

The season is still over a month away but that doesn't mean that we can't enjoy "talking season."

Some early spreads on LSU out of Vegas:

LSU -7 over Wisconsin:  Sounds about right.  This will be a close game at a neutral site but LSU should be able to win with great defense and a solid running game.

LSU -12 over Miss. State:  The last 7 games between the teams in Tiger Stadium have ended with an average final score of 39-17.  I will let you figure out the rest.

LSU +6.5 at Auburn:  Will be very tough game for LSU to win.  By the time of the game, Auburn should be on a 12 game home winning streak.  While LSU is 6-1 versus Auburn since 2007, the Baton Rouge Tigers are only 4-7 at Auburn since the inception of divisional play.

LSU -9 at Florida:  Of all the spreads, this one really caught my eye.  Obviously the odds makers don't think much of Florida this year.  I would be very curious to see the last time LSU was favored like this in Gainesville...if ever.

LSU -7.5 over Ole Miss:  This game has been VERY close in the Miles era.

LSU +2.5 vs. Alabama: Looks like the experts in Vegas think more of LSU than I do.  A lot will change before this game, but the Tigers are getting serious respect here.

LSU -14 at Arkansas: Possible trap game? Naaa.

LSU -5 at Texas A&M: Bring out the Turkeys.  Has LSU ever played on Thanksgiving Day?

Despite the fact that Miss. State, Ole Miss and A&M are all trendier picks than LSU, the Tigers are favored in all three games.  From 2011-2013, LSU was favored 34 times, the Tigers won 31 of those games.

National Predictions and Other Foolishness

Conference Champs

ACC:               Florida State

BIG 10:           Ohio State
Big XII:          Oklahoma
Pac-12:            UCLA
SEC:                South Carolina

Four Team Playoff: South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida State, UCLA

National Champ: Oklahoma

In case you are curious, Bovada’s Odds on winning it all:

Florida State: 11/2

Alabama: 6/1

Oregon: 8/1

Auburn: 9/1

Ohio State: 10/1

Oklahoma: 12/1

Georgia: 16/1

UCLA: 16/1

LSU: 18/1

Michigan State: 25/1

South Carolina: 25/1

USC: 25/1

Baylor: 28/1

Stanford: 33/1

Wisconsin: 33/1

Florida: 40/1

Mississippi: 40/1

Notre Dame: 40/1

Texas: 40/1

Michigan: 50/1

Nebraska: 50/1

Top 5 Games of 2014

1.   Auburn at Alabama

1a. SEC Title Game

2.   Ohio State at Michigan State

3.   Florida State v. Miami

4.   Oregon at UCLA

5.   Baylor at Oklahoma

5 Teams (other than LSU) I’m Most Curious About

Texas – No Texas players were taken in the NFL draft for the first time in 77 years. WHAT??  That is mind boggling to me.  I think Charlie Strong is a good coach and recruiter.  Look for a big turnaround for the Longhorns…next year.

 

Michigan – Brady Hoke won 11 games his first season in Ann Arbor. Then 8 games in year two and only 7 in year three.  Notice a trend?  Under Hoke, Michigan is only 3-8 versus ranked teams and 6-9 versus ND, MSU, OSU, Iowa and Nebraska. I’m not sure how much goodwill he has left.

 

UCLA – The Bruins look loaded to make a run.  Can Mora get them to elite status?

 

Miami – When will the Canes be good again?  After starting 7-0 last season, Miami stumbled the rest of the way going 2-4 down the stretch.

 

TCU – The transition to the Big XII has been rougher than most expected for the Horned Frogs.  The hope is a new offensive coordinator brings life to an offense that ranked 106^th in the nation last season.

 

Coach Most Likely to Get Fired: Will Muschamp

Bold Prediction I: Despite ESPN’s best efforts to manufacture controversy, the selection committee for the four team playoff will do an excellent job in selecting the participants without needless drama.

Bold Prediction II: Brady Hoke will get fired from Michigan as the Wolverines make another run at Les Miles.  Third time turns out to be the charm and Miles bolts LSU for his alma mater. 

3 Good Reads

1. SEC West holds the upper hand on the East.

Great article on the tilt of power in the SEC the last five years.

2. Stewart Mandel Mailbag

Always on Wednesday.  Always a good read.

3. Don't worry, Harry Reid insists that our southern border is secure.

No matter how many times you say something, it doesn't make it true.

2014 SEC Preview

 

 

Big turnover at the QB position in the SEC this season with Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina all losing their starters from 2013. It will be interesting to see how these teams’ offensive numbers are affected.

A few thoughts:

*          Junior and senior quarterbacks continue to dominate the SEC Title game.  Last year was no exception as Auburn was led by junior QB Nick Marshall while Missouri had senior James Franklin under center. 

*          Here is a breakdown of the 26 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	9	6-3
Junior	11	6-5
Sophomore	6	1-5
Freshman	0	0-0

*          I beat this dead horse every year, but the odds are heavily stacked against teams with underclass QB’s.  To put this in perspective, while Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel both won Heisman Trophies as underclassmen, neither won the division in those Heisman seasons.

*          So it is no surprise that I’m giving the LSU Tigers little or no chance to win the division.  But to show you what I know, I picked Auburn and Missouri to both finish 6^th in their respective divisions last season.  We all know how that worked out.

*          Using these criteria, who has a legit shot to get to Atlanta?

Auburn and Ole Miss will have seniors at the QB position and solid offensive lines.  Auburn returns four starters from an offensive line with a combined 113 starts that led the nation in rushing last season.  Alabama is breaking in some new guys on the line but you know they will be plenty talented.  The Tide will also be breaking in a new junior QB transfer from Florida State, Jacob Coker.  Ole Miss just is not on the same level as others in the division, but they could be a spoiler.

From the East, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia all have senior QB’s.  Florida’s Jeff Driskel returns for his fourth season after receiving a medical redshirt in 2013.  But this may be Steve Spurrier’s best chance to conquer the East.  The Gamecocks get Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri and Tennessee at home while travelling to Auburn and Florida.  USC has loaded up on talent with consistent Top 20 classes since Spurrier’s arrival.  The Gators are a bit of a wildcard this year.  On paper they are one of the most talented teams in the country, but Muschamp is only 22-16 in three seasons.  To highlight just how poor Florida was last season, their three conference wins came over teams with a combined conference record of 2-22.

 

Reading Material

Here are a few interesting links I came across that are worth a read...even if to say how misguided they are.

Athlon's ranking of all 128 college coaches.

No way Miles is 17th.  Sure he has his shortcomings, but a National Title, 2 SEC Titles and 95 wins in 9 seasons deserves more respect thank being ranked lower than Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly.

College Football Playoff for Beginners.

Nice little break down of the new playoff format.

Jeremy Hill's latest tattoo.

Holy Sh*t!!!!

SEC 2014

2014 SEC Predictions

SEC West

1. Alabama

2. Auburn
3. LSU
4. Ole Miss
5. Texas A&M
6. Mississippi State
7. Arkansas

SEC East

1. South Carolina

2. Georgia
3. Missouri
4. Florida
5. Tennessee
6. Vanderbilt
7. Kentucky

Tigers Boot Hogs

After LSU’s stellar performance against A&M and come from behind victory over Arkansas I started to think about this team’s place in Miles’ legacy and the LSU program overall.

The 2013 LSU offense is on track to be the most prolific in Tiger history. Averaging 465.9 yards per game this season places LSU 6th in the SEC this season. However, that number would rank 1st all time for LSU eclipsing the 2001 team that averaged 451.5 yards per game. Z Mett’s season is over with a torn ACL, but he did pass for 3,082 yards which would rank him 3rd only to Rohan Davey and Jamarcus Russell. Mett’s 61.8% career completion rate would rank him 3rd in LSU history behind Alan Risher and Jamarcus Russell. LSU is also on pace to set the record for rushing TD’s in a season (2012, 35). LSU is averaging 5.1 yards per carry which would be the best number since 1997 (5.4 yds/carry). LSU is #1 in the nation in 3rd down conversions at an eye popping 58.57%. Finally, the Tigers are averaging 37 points per game, 2nd all-time only to the 2007 National Championship team. Add the fact that the ’07 has 20 more take aways than this team and you can truly appreciate how productive this offense was. Clearly Cam Cameron has made a huge difference.

Unfortunately, this year’s defense struggled mightily in LSU’s three losses. As I mentioned earlier, LSU did not force many turnovers this season, 16 to be exact. From 2010-2012, LSU averaged 31.6 turnovers gained per season. In the three losses, all on the road, the Tigers only gained three turnovers while coughing up the ball six times. In those games the defense gave up an average of 188 yards on the ground and 275 through the air. Statistically, this was Chavis’ most porous, defense, giving up 5.21 yards a play. For perspective, that places LSU 4th in the SEC and 36th nationally, not bad for Chavis’ “worst” defense.

So what was the problem? Here are my thoughts:

1. Youth! The defense had so many new faces I actually had to bring a copy of the roster to the first few games. Young guys make mistakes, especially away from home. I think it was clear how much better the defense played at home versus on the road.

2. Our two starting DT’s, Ego Ferguson and Anthony ‘Freak’ Johnson, just are not up to the standards LSU has set in the past. These two guys would NEVER be confused with terrific Tigers from the past like Chad Lavalais, Glenn Dorsey, Kyle Williams or Drake Nevis. Yet it appears that both will declare early for the NFL Draft. Yeah, I don’t get that one either. Lack of depth at the position didn’t help either.

3. None of the young LB’s has been unable to unseat D.J. Welter. I’m not bashing Welter, but it appears that he is one of the less athletic players at a very important position. Think of Kevin Minter and Kelvin Sheppard who have starred at the spot and went on to the NFL. My guess is the coaches don’t trust any of the young guys to get LSU in the right spots and “QB” the defense which I assume is Welter’s responsibility.

Having said all that I really think we should put this season in its proper context. LSU has now won 8 or more games in 14 consecutive seasons. That leads the nation. With a win in the bowl game the Tigers will have four consecutive 10 win seasons for the first time in school history. We are in the Golden Age of LSU Football.

Looking at this season in particular, the Tigers lost by 3 in Athens to a loaded Georgia team that was subsequently decimated by injuries. The real disappointment was the 3 point loss at Ole Miss. I think LSU is a better team than Ole Miss, but Z Mett played the worst game of his career and LSU’s young defense could not bail out the terrible first half performance. Finally there was the loss at Alabama which I think was a bit closer than the final score. LSU went toe to toe with the Tide for 40 minutes but down the stretch LSU could not stop Alabama’s running game between the tackles. (Yes, I am talking about the aforementioned “pro ready” Mr. Ferguson and Mr. Johnson)

While this season could be viewed as a disappointment, I think it was exciting and had some memorable moments. The Georgia game was a thriller while the comeback versus Arkansas will be memorable if only for the last 2 minutes. Beat downs of Auburn and Texas A&M show that LSU still has the players to compete at the highest level and that Tiger Stadium is a fortress where in the immortal words of Les Miles, “Dreams go to die.”

Cheer up Tiger fans, a potential trip to the Cotton Bowl versus Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Texas could put a 10 win bow on another damn strong season of LSU football.

Johnny Football Travels to Death Valley

Johnny Football makes his first and probably final appearance at LSU this Saturday. LSU bottled him up last season but don’t expect a repeat of that performance. A few keys to the game (some cut and paste from 2 weeks ago):

* LSU must be able to run the ball. Under Les, the Tigers are 87-9 when they rush for 100 yards or more.

* The offense must click early. Les Miles is 64-6 at LSU when leading after the first quarter.

* The secondary is going to have to come up with at least 2 turnovers. The Tigers won’t force many punts, so turnovers and red zone defense are keys.

* Get off the field on 3rd down. Given what we have seen this year, I would be in favor of more risk taking by Chavis and crew on 3rd downs; we need to take some chances to create a big play.

LSU has played much better at home this season and is 13-1 in SEC home games since 2010. The Tigers are 31-2 in all home games since 2009. Those two loses were to Florida and Alabama, both ranked #1 in the country at the time of those games. Miles is 22-1 after a loss at LSU and has a career record of 4-2 versus A&M.

This is going to be a shootout, but look for LSU to make just a few more plays than A&M in the 4th quarter.


LSU 45 – A&M 42

Tigers Fade as Tide Rolls

For 40 minutes the LSU Tigers played the Alabama Crimson Tide to a standstill. Despite two first half turnovers, LSU and Alabama stood tied at 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. But befitting the mark of a championship team, Alabama proceeded to grind out three touchdowns while keeping LSU scoreless the rest of the way, final score Alabama 38- LSU 17.

Offense

* Z Mett is a warrior. He was harassed all night but finished 16 for 23 with 241 yards, 1 TD and ZERO INT’s.

* The offensive line again stunk against a good team. In LSU’s three losses, all on the road, the Tigers have averaged 78 yards per game, 2.29 yards per carry and have given up 11 sacks. You cannot win in the SEC with numbers like that. Miles needs to take a very hard look at the offensive line coach Greg Strudrawa.

* You cannot fumble on the one yard line going in to open the game 7-0, just a terrible mistake by Copeland.

* Not sure why Terrence Magee got so many carries on Saturday. He’s very good, but Hill is your bell cow, run him.

Defense

* The defense played very well in the first half. The second half was another story. Alabama scored touchdowns on 5 long drives pummeling the Tiger’s defense in the process.

* The numbers on LSU’s three road losses are not pretty:

1. Opponents scored 36 points per game

2. Opponents gained and average 188 yards on the ground

3. Opponents averaged 463 yards of offense

4. Minus 3 in turnover margin

* LSU was smashed between the tackles Saturday night.

Alabama is an excellent team and executed at a very high level. It is a tribute to Saban that he has his players ready to go every single week. Tiger fans need to relax and understand that Alabama is doing this to everyone and the Tide are in the midst of a potential unprecedented 3 consecutive national titles.

There needs to be improvement as LSU prepares for Texas A&M. The offense will have to win this game because I have zero faith in the defense withstanding the Johnny Football onslaught. Enjoy the games this weekend and get ready for a wild shootout on November 23.

Bama Week

It’s Bama week. If LSU can win this one, all will be forgiven.

What to look for on offense:

* LSU must be able to run the ball. Under Les, the Tigers are 87-9 when they rush for 100 yards or more.

* The offense must click early. Les Miles is 64-6 at LSU when leading after the first quarter.

* Z Mett must protect the ball. He has thrown 5 INT’s in last two games. LSU can’t win if they turn the ball over.

* Last year Les called a few plays that cost the Tigers. He needs to get a better feel of the flow of this game to decide when and if to gamble.

What to look for on defense:

* When LSU blitzes, they have to get to McCarron. LSU is going to need big negative plays to stop Alabama. They won’t be able to just go toe to toe and stop Bama’s offensive drives.

* The secondary is going to have to come up with at least 2 turnovers. If these blitzes do indeed bring pressure, the secondary is going to have to CATCH THE BALL when the opportunity presents itself.

* Get off the field on 3rd down. Given what we have seen this year, I would be in favor of more risk taking by Chavis and crew on 3rd downs. We are not strong enough or experienced enough to play straight up; we need to take some chances.

What to expect from Alabama:

* Ground and pound and occasionally go up top. Alabama is averaging 39 rushes and 29 passes per game in their 5 SEC games. The Crimson Tide lead the league in yards per play with 7.79.

* On defense, Alabama has been suffocating giving up only 11.8 points a game in 5 SEC contests. Take out the A&M game and it goes down to 4.25 points per game.

* I would add this little caveat though, Alabama was shredded by Manziel. The other 4 SEC games were against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas. They are ranked 47, 87, 92 and 108 respectively in scoring offense. They failed utterly against the one true potent offense they faced.

What will happen:

This series has been dominated by the road team going back to 1982. Since that break through victory over Bear Bryant in Alabama by Jerry Stovall’s Tigers, the road team has an amazing 22-8-1 record. LSU is 9-5 versus Alabama since 2000 (Miles is 5-4 versus Bama).

This game will play out like most of the games in the series, a tight contest marked by one team making plays in the fourth quarter to “secure victory.” LSU will play well, but this is the #1 team in country with the #1 coach on the sidelines.

LSU 24 – Alabama 34

Break Time

Fans always want to read WAY too much into games like these. LSU was never going to lose this game. Period. And there was nothing LSU could have done to “impress” me with a victory. Furman was a rent-a-win scheduled to secure a 7th home game for a homecoming blowout.

OFFENSE

*Z Mett is in a little slump. He’s thrown 4 TD’s and 5 INT’s in his last three games. Let’s hope the week off lets him rest up and refocus for the best defense he will face all year.

*ODB had a career night with 204 receiving yards and 2 TD’s. But he has got to stop fumbling punts.

*Jeremy Hill continues to roll with his 5th 100 yard game of the season.

DEFENSE

* The defense was sluggish in the first half but played extremely well in the second. The Tigers gave up a measly 39 yards in the final 30 minutes.

* This LSU team is on pass to tally 8 INT’s for the season. That is the smallest amount since 2008. For comparison, from 2009-2012 the Tigers averaged 17 INT’s a season. Overall, from 2010-2012, LSU forced an average of 31 turnovers a season. This year, the Tigers are on pace for only 17 takeaways.

* I would like to see Kendall Beckwith get more playing time. He looks like he has the potential to be very good.

Odds & Ends

There is a very good article here from And The Valley Shook regarding the LSU fan base. It is a thought I have espoused for a long time. That is:

Get over being mad. It’s a football game. It’s young men running around and crashing into each other. You can’t win every game. I will never forget after the exciting win over Arkansas in 2009 how the LSU fans around me looked furious about how the game played out. We won! Be excited! Don’t bring your miserable life around this program!

I hear this TIRED mantra about LSU being so much more talented then everyone else and we never live up to our talent, blah, blah, blah. That is a complete MYTH. Yes LSU is very talented, so is A&M, Alabama, Missouri, Georgia and any number of other teams. The disparity in talent is very slim.

The other misguided anger involves the head coach “not getting the players up for the game.” This plays into our societal cop-out of refusing to force individuals to take responsibilities for themselves and their actions. We want to blame anyone except the party responsible. If a player can’t motivate himself to play, the blame lies with the player. True fire and passion cannot be “coached” into a player. Crappy game plan, blame the coaches. Crappy effort, blame the players.

We have a week off after nine straight weeks of LSU football. I think that long stretch may have taken a toll on the players and played into the loss to Ole Miss. The break should rejuvenate the Tigers for the biggest test of the season on November 9.

Maximum Carnage

This week’s 3 thoughts:

* There were 5 upsets in the SEC this weekend: Ole Miss over LSU, Tennessee over South Carolina, Vanderbilt over Georgia, Auburn over A&M and Missouri over Florida. Had you bet the money line parlay on those five dogs, the payout would have been 630-1. Nice!

* All of the “what if?” scenarios about the BCS this early in the season are a waste of time. All that talk about Louisville going undefeated was hot air. Focus on the week at hand because things change every Saturday.

* It is well known that I hate Alabama. Like all good hate it has grown over the years. I have a feeling the hate will continue to grow after this year’s LSU v. Alabama tilt. But I must say that what Saban has done in his 7 years with the Tide has been remarkable. With all of the foibles and drama that surrounds 18-22 year old college men (boys), Saban has produced an unrelenting machine that grinds opponents into the turf. In the past five weeks, Alabama has given up 6,0,3,7 and 0 points. Sure the opponents are terrible. But to keep his players focused on the task at hand when it would be so easy to look ahead to down the road is remarkable. When Saban finally ends his coaching career, don’t be surprised to hear him called “the greatest college football coach…ever.”

BCS

More shakeups in the BCS games, and not for the better either.

Rose: Ohio State v. UCLA
Orange: Florida State v. Oklahoma
Fiesta: Texas v. Fresno State
Sugar: Auburn v. UCF
National Title: Alabama v. Oregon

The Playoffs

Just for fun, if the College Football Playoffs were in effect for 2013, they might look like this if the season ended today:

Sugar (Semi): Alabama v. Ohio State
Rose (Semi): Oregon v. Florida State
Orange: Miami v. Missouri
Cotton: Baylor v. Auburn
Chick-fil-a: Clemson v. Texas Tech
Fiesta: Stanford v. Fresno State

Road Woes

As a rule, with a loss such as the Tigers suffered Saturday night, I like to give myself time to digest the game. While I am extremely disappointed, as the game wore on I realized that this team is just not good enough to accomplish the lofty feats of other LSU teams over the past 12 years. Bottom line: the offensive line is good but not great, the defense is a shadow of what LSU fans have become accustomed to and Miles still has no clue how to properly manage the game clock.

OFFENSE

* Z Mett was horrible in the first half. All 3 INT’s were thrown poorly and into double coverage. I’m not sure if he was unfocused, greedy or worried about his productivity slumping after only getting 152 yards and zero TD’s against Florida. Whatever it was, he killed the Tigers in the first half. To his credit, he played much better in the second half leading LSU to 24 points, but the Tigers dug too big of a hole going down 17-0.

* Z Mett was sacked 3 times and the ground game didn’t generate any big plays with the longest run being 12 yards. Some of this lies at the feet of the offensive line while some also goes to LSU’s philosophy of running the ball. Too often Miles and Co. want to run plays inside a phone booth which neutralizes Hill’s ability to run over people. More runs out of spread formations would help LSU.

* After utilizing the backs heavily in the pass game at Georgia, we haven’t seen nearly as much of that. Need to mix it up a bit.

* I would be OK with giving Coach Studrawa his walking papers. The offensive line has be average for years now.

DEFENSE

* Where to begin? We will start up front where the pass rush has been hit or miss. The Tigers did get 3 sacks, but that came on blitzes, not with just the front four. Anthony Johnson has been really disappointing this season. Against Ole Miss he recorded one solo and one assisted tackle.

* Too often running backs are breaking through and I’m asking, “Where are the LB’s?”

* At this point, the secondary just can’t cover anyone. Wallace was 30 for 39 with 346 yards. On multiple occasions, Tre’Davious White was holding onto Donte Moncrief for dear life.

* The back breaker was LSU’s inability to get off the field on third down. Ole Miss was 11 of 18 on third down conversions. The Rebs had drives of 17, 14, 11 and 9 plays. Furthermore, Ole Miss did not punt once in the second half.

OTHER FAILINGS

* Once again Miles went to Ole Miss and mismanaged the clock. Instead of calling a timeout with 26 seconds left in the game, he called one with 6. Highly unlikely LSU would have been able to score with 26 seconds left, but to eliminate the chance is just TYPICAL HORRIBLE CLOCK MANAGEMENT by Miles. Had LSU not burned 2 timeouts earlier, the Tigers could have gotten the ball back with over a minute and a half left to go.

After the game Miles took blame for not having the players ready. A good PR move, but I’m not buying it. I have criticized Miles many times on this site over the years, but this one is on the players. Did Chavis all the sudden for get how to coach? All season we have talked about the job Cameron has done with Z Mett and the offense. While I think the coaches share the blame, this was a loss by the players. Z Mett killed LSU with his poor first half play. Those 3 INT’s were NOT from poor coaching, that was poor execution. In the first half, RT Jerald Hawkins was getting abused by Ole Miss’ DE. Coaching at fault? Probably some, but that is also an execution issue. Giving up third down conversions on 3 and 15? COVER SOMEONE. This defense is young with few leaders and no real playmakers. On a positive note, LSU will get back NINE starters on defense next year. It’s a down year, it happens after losing so many guys early to the NFL.

Fans have a tendency to overreact to the most recent game. This loss is no different. Ole Miss is a decent team; they should win 8-9 games this season. Fans need to accept the fact that LSU is very young on the defensive side of the ball. Mettenberger had an awful half and LSU is just not good enough to overcome three first half turnovers.

LSU v. Furman

I don’t know much about Furman except that they are an FCS team from South Carolina. Look for LSU to flop around until getting focused and putting away the Paladins.

LSU 42 – Furman 41

Role Reversal

I cringe in doing this but I have to give Lou Holtz a little credit here. He’s said more than once that in college football, you never know what you are going to get each week from your team. This week, LSU’s porous defense stood tall and kept the Gators out of the endzone in a solid 17-6 victory. Give the LSU staff a lot of credit on this win.

Offense

* The offensive line controlled Florida for most of the game racking up 175 yards on 39 carries. Coming into the game, UF was only giving up 65 yards per game on the ground. Jeremy Hill continued to show why he is one of the best RB’s in the country rushing for 121 yards averaging 6.4 yards a carry.

* Z Mett had some very pedestrian numbers going 9 for 17 for 158 yards. Those are season lows in attempts, completions and yards. But this was by design. He was efficient and didn’t turn the ball over which was exactly what the Tigers needed.

* Give Miles and Co. a lot of credit for the game plan this week. They realized that the only way Florida wins this game was on big plays by the defense and special teams. The Tigers played some “old LSU football” shortening the game and keeping things simple and it worked. I really like how LSU showed they are capable of winning games in different ways.

Defense

* It’s amazing how much better you look when you line up correctly and execute your assignment. There were plenty of superlatives on this side of the ball.

* The defensive line played like we thought they could. UF ran for 151 yards on 36 carries (4.19 yds/carry), the longest being a 14 yard gain. LSU also sacked Murphy 4 times for a loss of 40 yards. Jermauria Rasco racked up 4 QB hurries as well.

* LSU defenders need to learn how to catch the ball. Barrow and White could have made big plays with passes hitting them in the worst possible spot, the hands.

* Coach Chavis was much more aggressive dialing up a number of blitzes during the game. Jalen Mills and Micah Eugene each got a sack on blitz plays.

Did anyone else notice the chippiness in the game? Muschamp seems to run a pretty loose ship and the UF players seem to reflect that on the field. Since taking over in 2011, UF has an average national ranking of 114th in penalties per game (7.9 penalties/game in that span).

LSU v. Ole Miss

The Rebels are coming off a tough 41-38 loss to A&M. After starting 3-0, Ole Miss is now 3-3 just hoping to get bowl eligible. In four SEC games this season, Ole Miss has given up an average of 225 yards a game on the ground. On the other side of the ball Ole Miss can score points, but the Rebs have given up over 3 sacks per game in their four conference games.

I look for the Tigers to put up big numbers this week in Oxford as the defense continues to improve.

LSU 45 – Ole Piss 20

In the press conference after the game a reporter used the hammer and nail analogy to talk about the last two LSU v. UF games. Les’ response was classic Miles…

Bring on the Gators

Sorry for the late post this week.

LSU continued its dominance over Mississippi State with a 59-26 win on Saturday. There was plenty to like and much to be concerned about. But 5-1 is a great first half of the season with an opportunity for bigger things down the road.

Offense

*Z Mett is just getting better every week. He finished 25 of 29 for 340 yards with 2 TD’s and an INT. With all the great QB’s in the league, Z Mett is ranked first in QB rating, TD’s, yards per attempt and total yards. These are amazing All-American type numbers.

*Jeremy Hill busted off another long run and finished with 157 yards and 2 TD’s.

*Jarvis Landry picked up an ankle injury which is a cause for concern with Florida this week.

*Analyzing the offensive line is interesting. From a statistical standpoint the Tigers are not bad. LSU is rushing for 197 yards a game which would be the 3rd highest in the Miles regime. LSU is 71st in the nation in sacks allowed giving up 1.83 per game, but given Z Mett’s lack of mobility that number is understandable. Having said all that, this unit doesn’t really meet the eyeball test. They are good but not great. I think the Tigers have benefited from big plays in the running game and beastly performances by Jeremy Hill.

Defense

*Another ugly first half for the Tigers. LSU gave up 23 points and over 200 yards before halftime.

*Everyone has focused on the secondary, but the real problem is up front. The front seven don’t stuff the run or provide much of a pass rush. In Chavis’ first four seasons, Tigers’ opponents averaged 115 yards per game on the ground and 3.24 yards a carry. This season, LSU is giving up 159.5 yards per game and 4.25 yards a carry.

*Look for LSU to play two true freshmen at corner in the nickel package, Tre’Davious White and Rashard Robinson. Lots of ability, little experience.

*I took a look at the LSU game notes for this week (click here) and it was very interesting to see the breakdown of starts by player. Of the 35 players listed (see page 17 of 61) only 9 had started for 10 games or more. The graphic really brings home how inexperienced this team is on both sides of the ball.

LSU v. UF

Big game this weekend as the Gators roll into town with the best defense in the league. In three conference games, Florida is only giving up 222 yards a game and 3.8 yards per play. It should be noted that UF has thus far faced Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee, the three worst offenses in the SEC. Notably, UF is only giving up 75 yards per game on the ground in those SEC games.

LSU must be able to run enough to maintain some balance on offense. Look for Hill to get 25+ carries. LSU’s passing game should continue to hum along and produce another 300 yard day.

Defensively, Florida’s new QB Tyler Murphy is going to give LSU some fits. He can run and throw fairly well. But he has never faced anything like Tiger Stadium. Look for him to make a few errors turning the ball over in pressure situations.

If the Tigers can get up early on Florida, the Gators will struggle a bit to keep up. But LSU’s defense hasn’t stopped anyone so look for another close game.

LSU 30 – UF 23

LSU's Jacob Hester in the Tiger's 2007 victory over Florida.

The End of Lame

“A man does good business when he rids himself of a turd.”

King Edward I of England (1239-1307)

In that case, USC AD Pat Haden did great business in the wee hours Sunday morning jettisoning the huge mistake that is Lane Kiffin. Rarely has one done so little when being given so much.

Three Thoughts

* Alabama is back to smacking people around beating Ole Miss 25-0. I picked Bama to face off against Georgia for the SEC Title and thus far that prediction is playing out.

* DeLoss Dodds, Texas’ AD is set to retire August of 2014. Look for Mack Brown to get bumped upstairs as the Longhorns search for a new head coach for 2014. At least that what is says in the Prowler’s Crystal (Foot)Ball.

* I think the NCAA is doing the right thing with Penn State by gradually reducing the scholarship penalties. Some talking heads are saying this is an admission by the NCAA that they overreacted. I say it’s the NCAA using the carrot AND the stick to get schools to get their houses in order. Penn State has enacted over 100 of the recommendations of the Freeh Report. We should reward positive change.

I have some big changes in the BCS lineup this week. I don’t know if it will play out this way, but the games would be fantastic.

Rose: Alabama v. Stanford

Orange: Baylor v. Clemson

Fiesta: Oklahoma v. Louisville

Sugar: Georgia v. Florida State

National Title: Ohio State v. Oregon

Dawg Poo!

It may seem counter intuitive considering how the game played out, but this game was won in the trenches, specifically, LSU's inability to run the ball with consistency and Georgia’s ability to completely protect Murray for the entire game. Not only did LSU not record a sack, the Tigers were unable to even produce one QB hurry. Miles is now 11-9 on the road versus SEC opponents with winning records. This is no knock on Miles; it just shows how tough it is to beat good SEC teams at their place.

Offense

* Z Mett was awesome in defeat. He completed 62% of his passes for a career best 372 yards with 3 TD’s and ZERO turnovers. He currently sits 6th nationally in QB rating and Yards per Attempt. Sure we wish he could have led that game winning drive, but I’m not going to fault him for coming up short there.

* 77 yards on 36 carries is not going to cut it if LSU hopes to win the division. The O-line needs to step up.

* ODB and Jarvis Landry continue to shine. Both average over 100 yards a game receiving and have combined for 11 TD catches.

* However, ODB’s muffed punt was extremely costly. In a big game like that, those types of mistakes can kill a team. On the good side, Beckham still ranks 2nd nationally in all-purpose-yards.

* Cam Cameron has been a wizard this season. LSU is converting 59% of their 3rd downs, leading the SEC. The playing calling is creative and fresh. Cam deserves plenty of “at-a-boys.”

Defense

* That was miserable. Where to start? The front four didn’t do anything all game. No pass rush and no run stuffing. Georgia got 196 yards on the ground and Murray wasn’t sacked once. Interestingly enough, looking only at conference games, LSU is giving up 6.1 yards a play. That ranks 3rd in the SEC. So much for the fantastic defenses the league has produced during this BCS Title run.

* The secondary is in disarray. There were multiple coverage busts with confusion reigning supreme.

* LSU has only caused 7 turnovers thus far this season.

* LSU ranks 48th in third down conversion percentage defense. The Tigers need to do a better job of getting off the field.

* Clearly the front 4 aren’t getting it done. Chavis will earn his paycheck this season trying to figure out how to produce pressure and protect that inexperienced secondary. Good luck!

LSU visits Starkville this Saturday with an opportunity to continue a dominant run over the Bulldogs. LSU is 25-3 since 1985 against MSU, winning the last 13 in a row. Expect continued excellence from Mettenberger and a better showing by the defense. State is giving up 445 yards per game to BCS foes which bodes well for the Tigers. On the flip side, MSU is averaging 375 on offense. Les Miles is 20-1 after a loss in his 9 seasons at LSU. Look for that to move to 21-1.

LSU 38 – MSU 20

Solid in the Slop

The Tigers move to 4-0 on the season after a wet win over Auburn Saturday. One third of the season is already in the books.

OFFENSE

* Jeremy Hill is a beast. Hill ran for 183 yards on 25 carries with 3 TD's. I couldn't help but be reminded of Cecil Collins' performance against Auburn in 1997.

* I was very happy with the game plan through 3 quarters. But I really didn't like the offensive play calling in the 4th. I could see Miles fat fingers all over LSU's play calling which resulted in a grand total of 25 yards on 11 plays in the final 14:52 of the game. 9 rushes and 2 incomplete passes on 3rd down. Not the way to finish.

* Hated the fake FG. 3 points there puts LSU up 31-7 which is essentially a four score lead. Trying to run for 10 yards at that spot on the field is way too far.

* LSU's offensive line was guilt of 4 false starts. This must be fixed for the Georgia game.

DEFENSE

* Once again, LSU struggled mightily at times with the read option. LSU gave up 213 yards rushing, ironically the most since giving up 440 to Cam Newton and Auburn in 2010.

* LSU was beat deep twice, both times with safety help over the top. The safeties need to improve for Georgia's big play offense.

* I think it is clear that this defense is talented but not as good as we have seen in years past. But the player are there and this group will improve as the season goes along. The Tigers are ranked only 40th in the nation in run defense and 27th in total defense.

Next Week:

This will easily be the biggest test of the season thus far. Georgia is fantastic on offense ranking 6th nationally in total offense. Defensively, the Dawgs are not as strong, giving up 388 yards a game (68th in country). I expect LSU to again start out hot but Georgia is a veteran team and will not be fazed if LSU gets out to an early lead. I expect LSU to be in the lead late but look for Miles to go too conservative too early and Georgia pull the game out late.

LSU 28 - Georgia 31

3 Things

1. CoachesHotSeat.com is for all the fans that love to see crash at a NASCAR race or witness a guy do a face plant at the X Games.

2. While the Bama v. A&M was entertaining, it has proven to be the exception to the norm this season. We are one quarter of the way done with the campaign and only have 2 games, Clemson v. UGA and Bama v. A&M, that we would put in the 2013 time capsule. Through 3 weeks we have had a grand total of 5 matchups between Top 25 teams. This week is no better with only one game, Stanford v. ASU, pitting ranked teams against each other. No wonder attendance is down nationally.

3. How things change from one week to the next!! I'm drinking the Tiger Kool-Aid until they prove me wrong!

BCS Bowls

Rose: Stanford v. Ohio State

Orange: Michigan v. Clemson

Fiesta: Oklahoma v. Louisville

Sugar: Alabama v. Florida State

National Title: LSU v. Oregon

Pre-Season Out of the Way

LSU continued it's dominance of out of conference foes defeating Kent State 45-13. LSU's last regular season loss to a non-conference opponent: 2002 opening game against Virginia Tech. LSU's next big test to continue the streak: Wisconsin to open the 2014 season in Houston's Reliant Stadium.

A few thoughts on the game:

OFFENSE

*Z Mett just continues to impress. He is currently THIRD in the NATION in passing efficiency. I think it is fair to say that thus far he has exceeded Tiger fan's most optimistic expectations. Much better teams await, but this has been a brilliant start to the season.

*Jeremy Hill is one of the top backs in the SEC, maybe second only to Georgia's Todd Gurley. He's been flying under the radar and may continue to do so as he shares carries. But I expect his work load to pick up dramatically as we get into conference play. In LSU's last six conference games from 2012, Hill averaged 19.5 carries per game. Look for that to continue into this season.

*LSU ranks 36 in total offense nationally. This after languishing in the 100's the last few years. Cam Cameron has been just what Miles and LSU needed.

DEFENSE

*For all the griping I hear, the Tigers are ranked 10th nationally in total defense. The Tigers rank 3rd in the SEC in rushing defense allowing only 3.29 yards a carry. Compare that with A&M who is giving up a whopping 6 yards every rush.

*Tre'Davious White looks like a player at CB. Starting in place of Jalen Collins, White looked solid and racked up 4 solo tackles.

*Ego Ferguson was named SEC Defensive Player of the the Week. Ferguson leads the Tigers with 16 tackles and has been a force on the defensive line.

The Auburn Tigers are up next this Saturday night. Auburn rallied late against Mississippi State to score the game winning TD with only 10 seconds left to play in the game. Those Tigers are ranked 12th in the SEC and 92nd nationally in total defense. While Auburn is improved from last year, LSU has been nearly unbeatable at home. Look for the Tigers to again put up big numbers.

LSU 42 - Auburn 20