Chomp On This

Cade York boots a school record 57 yard FG

This is why we watch.

This is why we cheer.

This why we keep the faith.

LSU defeated the #6 Florida Gators 37-34 in another memorable game in the Swamp.  Florida's playoff hopes are dashed while LSU can finish the season 5-5 with a win this weekend at home versus Ole Miss.

This was a huge win for LSU and Coach O. The talking heads on TV and social media were all insinuating there are locker room problems and players will be bailing on the program left and right.  This win, and the effort shown by the players should temper down that talk. A coach that has "lost" the locker room doesn't win that game.

Offense

* Max Johnson played extremely well.  True freshman, first start, in the Swamp, it doesn't get much tougher than that.  Stat line: 21 for 36, 239 yards, 3 TD's and zero turnovers.  He was named SEC Offensive player of the week.

* No Arik Gilbert? No problem.  Kayshon Boutte went off for 108 yards on 5 catches with one TD.

* LSU ran the ball 50 times for 179 yards.  Not a great per carry average, but it kept the sticks moving. 

Defense

* For all of the gritty effort, the defense still gave up 34 points and over 600 yards.  The Gators made it into the redzone eight times. 

* At one point I wondered if we had run out for cornerbacks.  Stingley was out for the game, Flott was ejected for targeting and Ricks looked like he injured his shoulder.

* The Tigers defense did force three critical turnovers and sacked Trask four times Saturday night.

Special Teams

* Cade York may have kicked himself in position to be a finalist for the Lou Groza award given to the best kicker in college football.  

* Old Man Von Rosenberg delivered again booting 8 punts and keeping LSU in favorable field position.

Season Finale

Next up for the Tigers is Ole Miss. LSU is favored by 1 point in what should be a high scoring affair.  LSU ranks 121st nationally in total defense.  Not to be outdone, Ole Miss ranks dead last in the nation, 127th, giving up 528 yards per game.  LSU would do well to run the ball and keep the Rebel's offense off the field.  Turnovers will be key as additional possessions for each offense will be decisive.  Look for a wild shoot out.

LSU 48- Ole Miss 45

Rally Round the Family

It's easy to cheer when your team is winning.

It's hard to cheer when your team is losing.

It's easy to stay the course when everything is going right.

It's hard to stay the course when everything is going wrong.

It's easy to criticize.

It's hard to find solutions.

It's easy to go on social media and rip people while hiding behind anonymity.

It's hard to publicly support people when they are struggling.

Ed Orgeron is at a crossroads at LSU.  After overseeing the greatest team in LSU history in 2019, 2020 has been a disaster.  Some of the problems are self inflicted, many are not.  I'm not going to rehash all that has gone wrong this year.  If you are reading this you are well aware of all of the disfunction.  What I will do is offer my thoughts on LSU going forward.

*Orgeron failed epically in the hiring of Pelini.  Be it scheme or Pelini's inability to interact positively with players, the defense has been historically bad.  Aranda and Pelini could not be further apart in their demeanors.  The change was possibly too dramatic for a locker room full of young guys to overcome.  Pelini has to go.  His replacement will be the key to Orgeron continuing at LSU.  Fix the defense and LSU will win games in 2021.

*Linehan was another retread that has not paid dividends.  Orgeron needs a young offensive mind to assist and eventually take over for Ensminger.  Coach E has done a very good job and should be commended.  But he is not the future of LSU football.  

*LSU has the #3 recruiting class in the country right now.  LSU has to restock the talent that left after 2019.  Offensive linemen must be a priority for this team.  Signing day is less than 10 days away.  Keeping this class together is vital.

*For the fans...just stop with the whining, complaining and bitching.  I'm as disappointed as everyone else, but people act like the program is imploding.  Nick Saban had LSU fans pegged after three or four games as Tigers head coach, when he said that a "the sky is falling" mentality permeates the LSU fan base.  The "Never Orgeron" crowd is on social media crowing "I told you so" while the morons and wingnuts on Tiger Droppings want to burn down everything while hatching a plan to try and steal Nick Saban's DNA in an attempt to clone his body.  

ZERO self awareness and ZERO perspective.  

Below are the Top 10 winningest programs in college football history:

1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Texas
5. Notre Dame
6. Oklahoma
7. Nebraska
8. Penn State
9. USC
10. Tennessee

*Michigan last won the BIG 10 in 2004!  They have never made the BIG 10 title game.  Would you swap Orgeron for Harbaugh?

*Texas last won the BIG 12 in 2009!  Would you swap Orgeron for Herman?

*Nebraska's last conference title was 1999! Would you swap Orgeron for Frost?

*Penn State started the season 0-5. They haven't won a national title since 1986.  Would you swap Orgeron for Franklin?

*USC has 1 Pac-12 title in 11 years! Are you kidding? Would you swap Orgeron for Helton?

*Tennessee has been lost in the wilderness since firing Fulmer in 2008.  Their last SEC title was over two decades ago.  Would you swap Orgeron for Pruitt?

Yes, this season is terrible, but Orgeron is in a small group consisting of Saban, Dabo, Jimbo, Mack Brown and Lesticles.  Everyone needs to calm down and give Coach O a chance to fix this mess.  Will he get it done? I think so.  But he could also flame out and become another Gene Chizik.  Regardless, he needs the opportunity to right the ship and fans need to be realistic about 2021.

Oh...and LSU plays Florida this weekend.  If the Gators are looking ahead to the SEC Title game, LSU could hang around for a while.  UF can't run the ball so the defense needs to focus on Kyle Pitts (the best TE in CFB) and WR Kadarius Toney.  Expect the defense to give up 40 points.  We can only hope the offense can score early and try and keep it competitive.  LSU is a 3-5 football team, don't look for anything different on Saturday.

UF 45- LSU 24

Tigers Skewer Hogs Late

Tigers bring home "The Boot" for the fifth year in a row.

Coach O is now 12-0 coming off a loss as LSU's head coach.  He is also 5-0 versus Arkansas since taking over in 2016.  LSU really needed this win.  While this season will be remembered for COVID-19 more than anything else, LSU needed to steady the ship with a win at Arkansas and show this next recruiting class that LSU is only in rebuild mode, not meltdown mode (See: Penn State, FSU, Michigan and Tennessee) LSU can still secure another top 5 recruiting class in the early signing period next month.  The Tigers may end the season with a losing record, but better days, and better players wearing the purple and gold are ahead.

Offense

*TJ Finley led his first 4th quarter comeback throwing a game winning TD to Jaray Jenkins with 3:59 left.

* Finley played very well for only his third start.  He finished with 271 yards, two TD's and most importantly ZERO turnovers.

*Davis-Price needs to be the #1 back.  He's powerful and always falling forward.  He just gets better as the game goes along.

* Arik Gilbert has really stepped up as the season has gone along.  He has 27 receptions (3 more than UF's excellent Kyle Pitts) for 314 yards.

*LSU is 4th in the SEC and 28th nationally in total offense.  Given all the new faces and ineffective offensive line, the coaching staff and skill guys have done a good job.

Defense

I sat down today thinking I was going to have nice things to say about the defense.  But then I looked at the stats and realized the problems plaguing this team are just as frustrating as ever.  I never downplay winning, but this team is still a mess defensively.

* LSU ranks 124 out of 127 in the country in yards given up per play (7.35).  Against Arkansas, the Tigers gave up 8.36 yards per play.

* On Arkansas' first seven drives, the Hogs had five punts, one INT and one TD. Very good...except for the 65 yard TD pass by Franks.  On the next six drives, Arkansas had two TD's, two FGA's and two punts.

* Arkansas had three TD drives for the game.  On those three drives they ran 13 plays for 262 yards (20 yards a play).  On Arkansas' other 40 offensive plays, they averaged only 4.52 yards per play.

* Safety play has been poor all year and one of the big reasons for giving up so many big plays.  LSU has the #1 and #2 nationally ranked safeties in the 2021 class committed to play for the Tigers.  Let's hope we can hang on to them.

*On a positive note, the defense did force Arkansas into two FG attempts the last two drives of the 4th quarter.  They made enough plays to win the game.  Barely.

Special Teams

*You could argue Zach Von Rosenberg was the man of the match.  He consistently pinned the Hogs deep.  Von Rosenberg ranks fifth nationally at 47.48 yards per punt.

*Cade York is just plain excellent.

*Jay Ward blocked the final FG attempt to seal the victory of the Tigers.

Odds & Ends

*As I referenced earlier, a number of big name programs are in complete meltdown mode.  Penn State, FSU, Michigan and Tennessee are a combined 5-19 this season.  2020 LSU football is not a good team, but the program is still on a solid foundation.  Fans just need to keep the faith and stay patient. (I know, it's hard to do!)

*The TV announcers for the LSU game were awful.  I had to mute them by the 4th quarter.

*The playoffs should be a lot of fun.  None of the top teams have anything near an elite defense so we should see some shootouts.

*LSU looks to be in line for a bowl game.  I have seen predictions for the Texas Bowl (vs. Texas) or Outback Bowl.  Doesn't matter which one, these young LSU players need ALL the practice they can get.

* All stats provided via: http://www.cfbstats.com/

Halloween Horror Show

 

Jordan-Hare Stadium has been a House of Horrors for LSU in the past.  The 2020 visit was just another nightmare to join the list.

1994: The Interception Game - Jamie Howard throws 3 pick-6's and LSU goes down 30-26.

2002: The only thing more miserable than LSU's play were the weather conditions.  Auburn 31 - LSU 7

2004: Auburn scored let yet misses the extra point leaving the score 9-9.  But a flag is throw on LSU for leaping over another player and AU makes the PAT redo. Final 10-9.

2014: Leonard Fournette's freshman season.  The game was over by half-time.  Final score: Auburn 41 - LSU 7

2020: The most points Auburn has ever scored against LSU. Auburn 48 - LSU 11

Since the inception of divisional play in 1992, LSU is only 5-10 when playing at Auburn, the wins coming in 1996, 1998, 2008, 2012 and 2018.  The average margin of victory in those five games was 4.8 points.  Since 2000, LSU has managed only 12.8 points per game on the Plains. 

Offense

* TJ Finley looked like a freshman. This is not a criticism, just an observation.  He was not as accurate as last week and the pressure started getting to him as the game wore on.  He has a very bright future, but the learning curve in the SEC is very steep.

* The reason the pressure built up on Finley stems from the offensive line's inability to block Auburn's front. This is not a strong defensive line for Auburn.  Coming into the game they were giving up 4.08 yards per carry, only 9th in the SEC.  LSU averaged 1.19 yards per carry.  Abysmal. 

* I had no problem with LSU's play calling.  The players just didn't execute on many occasions.

Defense

* The defense played well for about 20 minutes but then went in the tank.

* Many of the same issues remain.  LSU cannot set the edge on outside runs.  Guys were running free because of coverage busts.  Safety play has been atrocious.  Todd Harris and Maurice Hampton have been very disappointing.  Freshman Jordan Toles comes in at safety and is promptly beaten deep for a 91 yard TD pass.  On the play he looked totally clueless as to what he was supposed to do.

* LSU has played five games.  In four of those games, the opposing QB's had their best statistical game of the season.

LSU is 2-3 and will be 2-4 in a few weeks after the Alabama beat down.  I feel pretty confident in saying LSU will have a losing record this season.  The offense will struggle against better teams and the defense is helpless.  Going forward, I would like to see the coaches identify the guys that are willing to play hard and take instruction, no matter how little game experience they have.  Any malcontents or guys loafing should be marginalized.  Take some chances on the young guys and see how they perform.

I know the more radical fringe of the Tiger Droppings crowd is ready to blow up the program and fire everyone.  I will freely admit this season has been a mess.  But we must keep the circumstances of this season in context.  LSU lost 32 players from last years team.  That is unheard of.  COVID forced the cancellation of Spring practice which was a huge blow to a team replacing an unprecedented number of players.  Aranda's departure as defensive coordinator was another set back.  Orgeron completely whiffed in hiring Pelini.  Had he made a better choice to replace Aranda, LSU could be 4-1 right now.

 The PROGRAM is on solid footing.  Recruiting is continuing to go well.  LSU currently has the number #4 class for 2021.  The offense has been overhauled and modernized.  The 2019 LSU team just had one of the greatest seasons in college football history winning the national title and Heisman Trophy.  Orgeron is willing to admit mistakes and make changes.

There will be "fans" that quit on this team.  That's fine.  It says much more about who they are than what LSU is about.  There will be more losses and more disappointment.  But I encourage everyone to stay the course.  Better days will return.

Don't Get Cocky

LSU's Tyrion Davis-Price runs away from South Carolina defenders

LSU got back to winning Saturday night thumping South Carolina 52-24.  Plenty of good things to discuss but problems still exist.

Offense

* TJ Finley was fantastic in his debut.  The true freshman went 17 for 21 with 265 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT.  He made good decisions all night and was extremely poised. All LSU fans should be excited about Finley's potential.

* LSU was finally committed to the run and had a good bit of success.  The Tigers rushed the ball 54 times for 276 yards with three TD's.  Davis-Price had 135 yards on 22 carries, career highs for both.

* Terrance Marshall caught two more TD's raising his season total to nine.  He will be a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award as long the LSU QB's throw his way.

* The O-Line played their best game of the season.  Finley was not sacked once and the ground game produced a season high.

* Inevitably people will be calling for Finley to be the starter because of this one game.  I am not one of those folks.  Brennan has gotten better every game and would have put up big numbers against South Carolina had he been healthy.  Finley, playing at home, was only asked to throw the ball 21 times the entire game.  Brennan has averaged that in each half this season.  In LSU's two loses, the Tigers averaged only 65 yards per game on the ground.  Coach O was clear after the game saying Brennan was the starter.  This team has enough problems with out a QB controversy.  Finley will have his time in the sun.  Just not yet.

Defense

* LSU allowed 7.9 yards per play against South Carolina.  As atrocious as that number is, it's an improvement over the Missouri and Mississippi State games.  For the season, LSU is giving up 7.17 yards per play, 96th out of 101 teams.  

* Teams are averaging 4.22 yards per carry and 9.7 yards per passing attempt against LSU's defense.  The problem is "big" plays.  LSU has given up the most 20+, 30+ and 40+ yard plays in the SEC.

* There are bright spots. LSU is ranked 15th nationally and 3rd in the SEC red-zone defense.  LSU is first in the SEC in allowing TD's on only 46% of opponent's red-zone opportunities.  The Tigers also rank first in the SEC in sacks per game and 9th nationally. 

* At this point I think fans need to a take a long and critical look at the defensive players on this team.  Does Pelini deserve a ton of blame for the defensive struggles? Absolutely.  But defensive players are making school boy errors that are not coaching related.  The Tigers have a long way to go to be considered even a mediocre defense.  The competition is only going to get stronger as the season rolls on.

Next Up

The LSU v. Auburn series has been one of the most entertaining match-ups in all of college football over that last 25 years.  There was a time when playing at Auburn was a nightmare, but that has changed for the most part.  Since I wrote that article back in 2006, LSU is 10-3 versus Auburn overall and 3-3 when playing at Jordan-Hare Stadium.  

The most the Tigers have ever scored at Auburn was in 1998 in Terry Bowden's final season.  LSU hung 31 on an Auburn team that finished the season 3-8.  I would be surprised if LSU doesn't break that record this year.  AU is giving up a hair over 400 yards and 25 points per game.  AU's QB, Bo Nix, is struggling this season.  His QB rating places him 13th in the SEC and 74th nationally.  But LSU's defense is so poor I expect him to have a solid game.  AU's lead running back Tank Bigsby is a load.  He is averaging 5.8 yards a carry.  Expect a heavy dose of him to keep drives moving and LSU's offense off the field.  To win the game, LSU will have to score early and try and put pressure on Auburn's offense.  Turnovers will be key as LSU has been unable to stop teams and force many punts.  I want to believe this team is getting better, but I have zero confidence in the defense.  What the hell...

LSU 38 - Auburn 35

Expect another crazy ending Saturday...

Defenseless

 

We all expected a step back after LSU lost so many players and coaches.  But I don't think anyone expected this.  Going into this season, with the exception of hiring Matta Canada, Orgeron has pushed all the right buttons with the Tigers.  He hung on to Dave Aranda for as long as he could.  He took in Joe Burrow and Cole Tracy as grad transfers. He hired Joe Brady from the Saints.  It all culminated in the 2019 LSU Tigers, arguably the greatest team in the history of college football.

No team, in the history of LSU football, has given up more points in three consecutive games than the 2020 LSU Tigers.  MSU, Vandy and Missouri have a combined record of 2-7, and scored a combined 96 points on the Tigers.  We can hope the performance against Missouri is the bottom, but I'm not so sure.

Offense

* Myles Brennan has played better each week of this season.  He was 29 of 40 for 430 yards, 4 TD and no interceptions.  Brennan graded out #1 this week in PFF's Power 5 QB ratings. 

* Brennan has very little support from the running game.  LSU is averaging 3.22 yards per carry and less than 100 yards a game.  The Tigers are ranked 71st out of 76 teams in rushing.

* LSU's offensive line has got to get better.  LSU must also recruit better.  The elite teams have have multiple 5 star recruits on the offensive line.  LSU has none.

* LSU may win the Biletnikoff Trophy two years in a row.  Terrance Marshall has been unstoppable this season.  He is averaging seven catches per game, 20 yards per catch and has 7 TD's through three games.

* Scott Linehan has been a total bust.  He calls 3rd down and red zone plays.  LSU is an atrocious 9 for 39 on 3rd downs.  He called the four plays on the goal line at the end of the Missouri game.  LSU's TD conversion rate in the redzone is only 54%.  Last year it was 78%.  Do you give ALL the keys to Ensminger?  I have more trust in him than Linehan, but we are only three weeks into the season.  As poor as the defense played, LSU should have scored at the end of the game to beat Missouri.

Defense

* Defensive line cannot stop the run.

* Defensive secondary cannot stop the pass.

* LSU ranks 73rd of 76 teams in defensive yards per play.  The Tigers give up an average of 7 yards every defensive snap.

* Thus far, Bo Pelini has be a complete and utter failure.  His buyout is in the neighborhood of $4-$6 million.  How LSU agreed to that contract is mindboggling. This is on Orgeron for hiring Pelini and Woodward for signing off on such a foolish contract.  Pelini is not getting fired before the season ends.  The best they can do is keep working and simplify what they are doing as much as possible.

In 2010, Cam Newton came from nowhere to win the Heisman Trophy and a National Championship.  Auburn's head coach Gene Chizik guided one of the more improbable title runs in college football history.  Newton entered the 2011 draft and a depleted Auburn went 8-5 that next season. The wheels fell of in 2012 as Auburn went 0-8 in the SEC and Chizik was fired.

I'm not saying LSU and Coach O are on the same path.  But as a whole, this is the worst team since 1999.  That's how bad this defense has been and how poorly these coaches have performed.  Orgeron has a huge task ahead trying to salvage this season.  Poor coaching has cost LSU two victories.  The Tigers should be 3-0.  But after Saturday, LSU looks like a 3-7 to 4-6 team.  Missing out on a bowl game and the extra practice would be a giant blow. Let's hope this staff and these players get their minds right in a hurry.

Good Night in Nashville

 

The Tigers bounced back from a disappointing loss in week one to beat Vanderbilt 41-7 Saturday night.  I know...it's Vandy, but you can only play the team in front of you.  The Tigers took care of business and looked good doing it.

Offense

* Myles Brennan took plenty of heat after week 1, some of it deserved, some of it unfair.  Brennan responded with a strong night going 23 of 37 for 337 yards, 4 TD's and 1 INT.  Brennan looked much more comfortable this week.  He stepped up in the pocket and was much more decisive in his throws and decision making.  The one INT was a bad miss, but the 4 TD's are tied for the second most by an LSU QB in an SEC game.  After two weeks, Brennan is ranked 4th in the SEC and 18th in the nation in QB efficiency.

* No Chris Curry?  No problem. John Emery carried the ball 12 times for 103 yards.  This is what was expected from the 5 start recruit when he enrolled at LSU.  He looked hungry and decisive.

* Terrance Marshall is a legit #1 receiver and probable first round NFL pick.  Brennan has completed passes to 11 players through two games.  It will be interesting if anyone emerges as a solid #2 option for the Tigers.

* LSU is 9 of 29 (31%) on 3rd down conversions. The Tigers must get better if they are to win these tougher matches later in the season.

Defense

* The defense was excellent this week after a historic collapse in week one. After giving up 623 passing yards last week, the Tigers held Vandy to only 113 yards Saturday.  The Commodores did rush for 153 yards on 43 carries.

* Eli Ricks is tied for second in the country with two INT's on the season.  He looks like another great corner for the Tigers going forward.

* Mississippi State's loss to Arkansas showed just how poor a job Pelini did in the opening game.  Arkansas dropped 8 in coverage many times and forced Costello to throw underneath.  He finished with one TD and three INT's.  I think the LSU defensive staff would really like a do over.  Let's hope Pelini learned something.

Special Teams

* Special teams looked great once again.  Stingley had three punt returns for 92 yards.

On Tap

LSU returns home to play 0-2 Missouri on October 10th.  LSU is favored by 20 points.  Missouri is giving up 418 yards a game, 171 of that on the ground.  Missouri has played two QB's in the first two games with mixed results.  My biggest question going into next Saturday is, can LSU get better on 3rd down on both sides of the ball? Look for LSU to continue to improve building up to the clash with Florida in the Swamp in week four.  

LSU 38 - Missouri 20

Air Raid Bombs Tigers

 

In retrospect, maybe we should have seen it coming.  LSU had only three starters on the field  from last season's national title game.  New faces were all over the field and on the sidelines.  Mike Leach has a senior QB to run his highly successful Air Raid offense.  Regardless, Saturday may have been one of the worst defensive performances in LSU history.  Let's break it all down.

Offense

* Miles Brennan was a little disappointing.  He finished with 345 yards and 3 TD's, but he never seemed comfortable or in command.  Maybe I expected too much after Joe Burrow.  In his defense, it was his first start and he was harried all game long.  The running game was only moderately effective. The receivers dropped some passes.  I do think there is room for Brennan to grow.  He will improve as the season goes along and I expect him to be one of the better QB's in the league by the end of the season.

* The offensive line was poor. Brennan was sacked seven times.  Some of them were on him, but there were a number of free rushers or linemen just getting beat in their one on one assignments.  The run game improved in the second half, but there is a lot of work to be done.

* The receivers were a mixed bag.  I believe Terrance Marshall (#6) had two drops, the most critical was on LSU's last drive.  Jaray Jenkins (#10) was a very nice surprise.  For all the hype we heard about Arik Gilbert (#2), I didn't see it.  He dropped the first pass thrown his way and his blocking was awful at times.  He's a true freshman and I know he will get much better, but that was far from a great start.

* Going into this game under Coach O, LSU was 31-3 when they gained more than 400 yards of total offense and 36-1 when scoring more than 30 points.  LSU did both yet still lost by 10. 

Defense

* Ali Gaye (#11) had a really nice game at his defensive end position.  He finished with three total tackles, two tackles for loss and a sack.  He also batted down multiple passes and brought pressure throughout the game.  Jabril Cox (#19) also played well.  He made a great play on a Costello pass which resulted in a pick six for the Tigers.

* LSU is number 1 in the country in rushing defense.  LSU is also dead last in the country in passing defense.

* LSU will have to give up the mantle of DBU for a while.  State did a great job of identifying the Tiger's weakest man in the secondary and went at him. It was a complete debacle across the board.  Darren Evans (#26) is completely out of his depth at this level.  Eli Ricks (#1) had a nice INT in the second half, but looked like a true freshman for most of the game.  Jay Ward (#5) had some nice moments, but he was beaten badly on Costello's final TD pass. Even Cordale Flott (#25), arguably LSU's best corner on the field had a rough outing.  JaCoby Stevens (#7) played well.  His leadership will be key going forward.

* The LSU defense forced 4 turnovers yet still allowed 44 points.

Special Teams

* No complaints here.  Tigers were very effective all game.

LSU goes on the road next week to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores gave A&M all they wanted in College Station losing 17-12.  I think that game says a lot more about A&M than it does Vandy.  Look for lots of improvement on both sides of the ball from the Tigers.  Vandy only mustered 255 total yards on offense against the Aggies.  Let's see if LSU's defense can rebound.  Offensively, let's see if the offensive line can take some steps forward to get the running game going.

Before Saturday, I thought LSU could compete with the top teams in the SEC this season but not win the division.  Right now, they look more like a 5-5 team than an 8-2 squad.  The Tigers need to rally...quickly.  This season will be a real test for coach O.  

LSU 38 - Vandy 24

Game week...Finally!!

At times I didn't know if we were going to make it.  But we are here!  Game week!

Many national pundits are questioning the Tigers this season.  It is not uncommon to see LSU ranked as low as 4th in the Western Division in some predictions.  The focus has been exclusively about what LSU has lost.  It is a mistake to overlook what LSU has coming back.

LSU goes into this weekend's opener a 16.5 point favorite, telling me the folks in Vegas still have faith in the Tigers.  Three things to look for:

1. Can LSU's three headed running attack get rolling?  Curry, Davis-Price and Emery are all listed as co-starters at the running back position on the depth chart released by Coach O today.  Establishing some rhythm in the running game will take pressure off QB Miles Brennan.

2. What will we see from the defense in terms of pressure and play calling?  Coach O has publicly expressed his displeasure with LSU's 2019 defense on more than one occasion.  In fairness, LSU finished 4th in the SEC in tackles for loss per game and 5th in sacks per game.  The real issue was redzone defense.  Opponents scored TD's on 65% of their redzone opportunities.  That ranked 12th in the SEC and 93rd in the country.

3. Last season, LSU outscored its 15 opponents 249 to 91 in the second quarter.  LSU was never outscored by an opponent in the second quarter in 2019.  The average half time score for the Tigers was 27-10.  Can LSU maintain that first half focus and put early pressure on opponents?

I expect LSU to come out throwing and running tempo against Mississippi State.  State will also come out throwing Leach's Air-Raid offense.  Look for LSU and new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini to pressure State's transfer QB KJ Costello.  I like the match-up of our secondary versus their receivers. Close early, but LSU will pull away with a balanced attack.

LSU 38 - State 20

College Football Playoff

Each week I will post my picks for the playoffs.

Alabama, Clemson, Texas, Ohio State

2020 SEC Predictions

 

2020 Predictions

East 

 

1. Georgia        (9-1) 

2. Florida         (8-2) 

3. Tennessee    (5-5) 

4. Kentucky     (5-5) 

5. Missouri       (3-7) 

6. S. Carolina   (2-8) 

7. Vanderbilt    (0-10) 

 

West 

 

1. Alabama       (10-0) 

2. LSU              (8-2) 

3. Texas A&M  (7-3) 

4. Auburn          (6-4) 

5. Miss. State     (4-6) 

6. Ole Miss        (3-7) 

      Arkansas       (0-10)

Tid Bits 

 

• *  Alabama is hungry and led by a senior QB.  They are the most talented team in the country.  I think they win the West, the SEC Title and the National Championship.  (It hurts to write that.) 

 

• *  Florida’s Kyle Trask is the highest rated returning QB in the SEC this season.  But the line needs to be rebuilt and I don’t see the playmakers to support Trask. 

 

• *  I’m going with Georgia to win the East even though I am not sold on Georgia’s QB situation.  Jamie Newman transferred in from Wake Forest where he finished 9th in the ACC last season in passing efficiency (conference games only).  The other QB transfer is JT Daniels from USC.  Daniels tore his ACL in the first game of the 2019 season.  He is not as experienced as Newman, but he is more talented.  Georgia’s defense is outstanding once again which will have to carry this team. 

 

• *  I hope Mike Leach does well at State.  I like the offense and he’s an interesting guy to have in the league.   

 

• *  Tennessee’s schedule is brutal, at Georgia, Alabama, A&M, at Auburn and Florida at home to end the season. 

 

• *  Kentucky will be pretty good, but the schedule will be difficult to navigate.  UK is getting some media hype as a “surprise team.”  I just don’t see it. 

 

• *  Another “hyped” team is A&M.  Again, I’m not buying it.  QB Kellen Mond is an average guy.  In six games last season versus teams with a winning record he threw 7 TDs and 4 INT’s.  His QB rating was a 112.08 in those games.  Those are worse numbers than Jordan Jefferson put up! 

 

• *  I have Auburn at 6-4, but they could end up 4-6 if things go poorly early.  The opening game versus UK is a big key for them as Georgia is in week two. 

 

• *  Arkansas, Ole, Miss, Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt will really struggle. A 10 game SEC schedule is a nightmare for these schools.  Don’t expect the SEC to go to a permanent 9 or 10 game conference schedule any time soon.