Les Is No More

It's over folks. Les Miles is no longer LSU's head football coach. He finishes with a 114-34 record at LSU, three SEC West Titles, two SEC Titles, two National Title game appearances and one National Title in 2007. He is on LSU Football's Mount Rushmore along side Nick Saban, Charles McClendon and Paul Dietzel.

A number of factors led to Miles' dismissal. But first and foremost was his inability to evolve on the offensive side of the ball. In an age of high flying prolific spread offenses, Miles was stuck trying to play football in a phone booth. LSU's scheme and play calling were predictable and unimaginative. The Tigers were able to generally overcome such obstacles because of the amount of talent that came through Tiger Stadium. But Miles' inability to recruit or develop a serviceable quarterback magnified the problems with the offensive philosophy. Since 2009, LSU has finished 94^th or worse in passing yards per game 6 times. LSU is well on its way to continue that trend after four games in 2016. Miles' style of play and refusal to adapt to the changing nature of college football were ultimately his undoing.

When I look back at his tenure, there are numerous great moments. But I will also carry the memory when he lost me as a fan. On October 1, 2011, LSU faced Kentucky in Tiger Stadium. At that point, Jarrett Lee led the SEC in QB efficiency. He was 56 of 87 (64.3%) for 644 yards 7 TD's and 1 INT after four games. Lee had been fantastic thus far that season. In the first quarter of that game, Lee had driven LSU deep into Kentucky territory and was poised to score. But Miles ran Jordan Jefferson out on the field to a cascade of boos. Jefferson ran the ball in to score but the move obviously affected Lee as he only completed 38% of his passes on that day. Miles eventually replaced Lee for good after the Alabama “Game of the Century”. In the last two games of the season, the SEC Title game and the National Title game, Jefferson ran or passed the ball a combined 50 times. In those 50 plays, he generated a grand total of 93 yards, a whopping 1.8 yards per play. His QB rating of 80.9 for those two games was abysmal. No need to rehash the National Title game disaster.

After the 21-0 beating and Miles' refusal to pull Jefferson I was done sticking up for Les.

Miles had a chance at redemption in 2012. Alabama visited LSU as the Tigers played their hearts out that November evening. But Miles went super conservative late in the game and allowed Alabama to stick around and eventually win. Zach Mettenberger was on fire going 24 of 35 for 298 yards and a TD. But on two late drives, Miles went into a shell and took the ball out of his hands. Two promising drives that could have killed the game resulted in zero points. Alabama then scored with 51 seconds left to win and continue on to another National Title.

Since then, LSU has steadily regressed despite continuing to put numerous players in the NFL. It was time for a change. I encourage everyone to support our players and cheer on the Tigers to better days. There are eight games left and plenty of opportunities to make LSU football fun again.

Keep the faith and Geaux Tigers.

A Les Miles Special

Les gets to keep his job for another week. That's about the most significant observation I took from this game. It was typical Miles. For part of the game, LSU looked like the team we all thought they could be. But a lack of focus led to turnovers and penalties in the second half. Some will criticize Fournette's two fumbles, but LSU went three and out three times in the second half. After seeing LSU for three games, I have little faith in Miles leading LSU to enough victories to save his job.

How many wins does he need? My guess is 10. If LSU beats everyone except Bama and finishes 10-2 it would be very tough to get rid of him. But 9-3 could lead to his ouster. LSU still has to face Bama, Ole Miss, Florida, Arkansas and A&M. If he goes 4-1 against that group he deserves to stay.

Observations:

• Malachi Dupre really stepped up and played up to his potential. Excellent game from him.
• Why did it take so long to get Etling on the field? Had they put him in versus Wisconsin, the Tigers probably win that game.
• Fournette looked good. Not sure if there are any lingering leg issues, but he looked his old self. I'm not worried about the fumbles. He's just pressing a bit I think.
• The offensive play calling was very good for the most part. Even in the second half the staff was trying to move the ball. These guys are coaching for their jobs.
• The defense was great until the last 7 minutes of the game. The Tigers struggled in coverage but Key came up with a huge sack to seal the victory.
• Kevin Tolliver had a very rough night covering MSU's #1 receiver Fred Ross. He must get better as the season moves along.

Auburn up next...

As hot as Miles' seat is, Malzahn's is even worse. After leading AU to the 2013 Title Game, its been a steady decline. The other Tigers have gone 2-10 in their last 12 SEC games. The offense is struggling and the defense isn't good enough to win games all by itself. Having said that, LSU's offense isn't much better. But the Bengal Tigers are doing a better job on defense giving up only 16.3 points a game. Auburn is a very tough place to play. I expect a fairly low scoring game. LSU is a 3 point favorite as of this writing. I like Etling's poise thus far and he will make enough plays on third down for the Tigers to come out with a win.

LSU 27 – Auburn 17

Playoffs Week 3:

Three weeks and three of my initial playoff teams now have a loss, only Michigan remains.  This has the makings of a wild season.  

Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Louisville

I have a feeling Les knows his days are numbered at LSU. He's saying all the right things but he doesn't look like he actually believes them. After another dreadful start, Harris was benched for Danny Etling. Etling led the Tigers to three quick second quarter TD's. Coupled with White's wild punt return for a TD, LSU effectively put the game away by halftime. A few observations:

• I think Harris' career at LSU is over. He has zero confidence and looked terrible in his two series. Don't be surprised if he transfers at the end of the season. Add his name to the list of QB's Miles has failed to develop into a competent passer.
• The talking heads keep saying that Harris needs to be kept in the fold and even see playing time. My question is why? I honestly can't tell you when he is prepared to play or not. He knows the plays by now, right? He's practiced with the first team all spring and summer. If he's needed they will throw him back out there. If he's that mentally frail, how can we expect anything from him?
• Malachi Dupre needs to take a seat next to Harris. This guy has been a HUGE disappointment. Time for a new #2 WR.
• Etling started 6 for 8 for 100 yards and a TD. After the half he was 0 for 6 with one rushing TD, an INT and a fumble. It seemed the play calling changed in the second half and Etling's performance suffered.
• It's a sign of how low things have gotten when a guy goes 6 for 14 for 100 yards is being considered a savior. (His QB rating would be 12^th in the league had he played in both games.) Regardless of how well Etling plays, LSU's archaic offense will be this team's undoing.
• No matter how good he turns out to be, I have no faith in Miles' offense. His meddling in the play calling will cost LSU games this season and ultimately his job. LSU currently ranks 113^th in the country in total offense.
• With the exception of the long pass play I was happy with the defense. At this point, the players need to embrace their roles and mind their assignments. The Tigers need to be disciplined on defense.
• The paper reported that Miles and Aleva spoke after the Wisconsin game last week. Would have loved to be a fly on the wall for that chat.

Mississippi State

LSU has owned this series for years. LSU is 27-4 versus the Bulldogs dating back to 1985. MSU is giving up only 2.13 yards per carry on defense. On offense, State's QB, Nick Fitzgerald passed for 178 yards and ran for 195 last week versus South Carolina. Look for him to give LSU's defense plenty of trouble.

Regardless of Fournette's health, LSU will continue to rely on the running game. Etling will be forced to make some plays on 3^rd down to keep drives moving. The game will probably be relatively low scoring. LSU wins, but only because the game is at home.

LSU 23 – Mississippi State 20

Playoffs Week 2:

Two weeks and I lost two of my playoff teams.  Loser of Michigan vs. Ohio State will be looking pretty good.

Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State

Inside the numbers...

 

Brandon Harris has played in 5 true road games (at Auburn, at MSU, at Syracuse, at Alabama and at Ole Miss) and one semi-road game (Wisconsin at Lambeau).  His numbers from those games are just plain ugly.

 

Opponent	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TD’s	INT’s
Auburn	14	3	58	0	0
MSU	14	9	71	0	0
Syracuse	16	8	157	1	0
Alabama	19	6	128	1	1
Ole Miss	51	26	271	1	1
Wisconsin	21	12	131	1	2
TOTALS	64	135	816	4	4

 

That’s a 47.4% completion rate and 6 yards per attempt.  The young man simply does not have the poise to play in hostile environments.  This isn’t a personal attack or a question of his character or anything like that.  It’s an observation that was encapsulated in the game sealing interception against Wisconsin.  The stage and the situation are just too big for him.

 

Bruce Feldman wrote a great book called “The QB: The Making of Modern Quarterbacks” which I read a year or two ago.  In it, there is a repeated reference to guys having that “it factor.”  Be it confidence, poise, swagger or composure, it was deemed an integral part of success of a college and pro QB.  It’s become painfully obvious that Harris doesn’t have “it.”

 

With road games at Auburn, at Florida, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M, LSU’s prospects with Harris look exceedingly dim.  I have been to all of those stadiums minus Arkansas.  They can get ridiculously loud and intimidating.  All of those teams will be crowding the line and daring Harris to make a play.  I genuinely hope he can figure this out, but I’m not holding my breath.

Welcome to the Les Miles Farewell Tour

As the first quarter closed I realized that all my hopes for this season were misplaced. I knew nothing would change on the offense, but I hoped maybe LSU would efficiently execute Miles' pre-historic game plan. Nope. LSU's offense looked like a steaming pile of garbage. As I sat in the stands at Lambeau field at the half, I genuinely wanted to leave, walk away from the disappointment, walk away from Miles' cluelessness, walk away from watching bad football. Of course I stuck it out, only to be disappointed again as Harris threw a pass straight to a defender with a minute left. It was first down, LSU only need a few more yards for a reasonable FG attempt. But the game was over and all thoughts of a special season went out the window.

Miles is now 2-4 in his last 6 games. In those 6 games, LSU has scored 16, 14, 17, 19, 56 and 14 points. Clearly the offense is broken and Miles has done NOTHING to fix the problem. His brush with getting fired changed nothing in his mind about LSU's offensive woes or philosophy.

LSU's national rankings in passing yards per game since 2009:

2009: 97

2010: 107

2011: 106

2012: 94

2013: 45

2014: 116

2015: 106

2016: 107

We call this a systemic problem. With as much talent as LSU has had, it's absurd that these numbers exist. Unless the players make an amazing turn around, Miles will be gone at the end of the season, a season too late. A few observations:

• If I was Joe Aleva, I would be telling anyone that would listen, “I told you so.”
• To all the fans that said keep Miles, you are fully deserving of the crappy brand of football you saw on Saturday.
• Harris is still erratic, inaccurate and lacks poise. The INT to end the game was just brutal. Just a terrible play from a guy that's started as many games as he has.
• Feel bad for Fournette. He's not going to win a Heisman trophy because Miles has refused to embrace a more open offense. He did have 176 all-purpose yards.
• The offensive line was poor. There were multiple missed assignments and breakdowns. The tackles struggled with the edge rushers and even when LSU had a nice play called the linemen didn't deliver.
• The defense couldn't get off the field at times. But they only gave up 16 points and forced three turnovers. An OK showing under a new coordinator.
• Tre'davious White had a great game. The pick 6 energized the Tigers then a fumble recovery on the next series set up LSU's second TD.
• Wisconsin is going to win some football games this season. A really tough schedule may keep them out of the Big Ten Title game. Their staff did a great job preparing for LSU.

Looking Ahead

The Tigers return home to face Jacksonville State on Saturday. We should win easily but Jacksonville State has given other SEC teams fits the last few years. Very curious to see how the players respond. I expect a very sluggish start but eventually LSU will win a game that is much closer than it should be.

Looking down the road, LSU should beat Miss St., Mizzu, Southern Miss and South Alabama. Games against Alabama and Florida will most likely be losses. The remaining games versus Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M are all toss ups. I know its only one game, but at this point, the Tigers look like an 8-4 football team, at best.

Some would argue that Miles strengthened his position after last year's late season fiasco. I disagree. Every loss strengthens Aleva's argument that Miles should have been replaced last season. Miles refused to make any significant changes regarding the offense which shows he will NEVER change. He's at an age where he will go down doing it his way. Damn the consequences. It is clear LSU will not win anything of significance with Miles as coach and LSU fans deserve better. #FireLesMiles

LSU 17 – J' State 16

Playoffs Week 1:

That didn't take long!  One week and I lost one of my playoff teams.  No matter, plenty of time to get the other three knocked off.

Alabama, TCU, Michigan, Florida State