2016 Predictions

Conference Champs

ACC:  Florida State

Big Ten: Ohio State

Big 12: TCU

Pac 12: UCLA

SEC: LSU


Top 5 games of the season:


LSU v. Alabama
FSU v. Clemson
Ohio State v. Michigan
TCU v. Oklahoma
Oklahoma v. Ohio State

Coaches most likely to get fired:

 

Darrell Hazell, Purdue – 2-22 in the Big Ten over 3 years is not good.

Gus Malzahn, Auburn – after a 2013 trip to the National Title Game, Auburn has gone 6-10 in the SEC and is looking at another tough season.  A 6-6 record and another loss to Alabama will make things interesting at the end of the season.

Paul Petrino, Idaho – Going 6-29 in your first 3 seasons leaves no room for error in year 4.

 

Three BOLD Predictions:

 

Stanford will go 6-6.  A new QB and road games at UCLA, Washington, Oregon and Notre Dame will cause Stanford lots of problems.

 

Brandon Harris will have 20+ TD passes.  I really don’t have any argument to back this up.

 

Michigan will go 12-0 in the regular season.  Call it the second year bounce.  Looking at recent history, a number of coaches have done very well in the second year at a school. A few examples:

 

Urban Meyer, Florida 2006 (11-1) won National Title

Nick Saban, Alabama 2008 (12-0)

Gene Chizik, Auburn 2010 (12-0) won National Title

Chip Kelly, Oregon 2010 (12-0) played for National Title

Playoffs: LSU, TCU, Michigan, Florida State

LSU Preview

I want to believe. I really do. I want to believe that Les Miles can still win big games. I want to believe that LSU can beat Alabama. I want to believe that LSU will have good quarterback play. I want to believe all of those things. Because if they are all true, it means that LSU will be in the playoffs at the end of the season. It means that LSU will have won its first division and SEC Title since 2011. It means that joy and merriment will be back in Tiger Town.

The numbers back up the idea of an LSU team poised for great things. Phil Steele has LSU ranked 8th in the country in most experience returning. (math nerds can click here) The Tigers have 11 senior starters. Over 97% of last year’s offensive production is returning. Oh…and LSU has that Fournette dude.



The problem is I can’t shake the feeling that Miles is going to play things too safe. One reason for Alabama’s success is their ability to put teams away and play in very few tight games. Les Miles seems just the opposite. The Tigers are always seemingly in tight games, and if you play in enough of those, you will come up short because your margin of error is so small.

OFFENSE

The offense can be broken down as follows:

1. Brandon Harris must be more consistent.
2. The receivers need to catch the ball.
3. The offensive line must jell.
4. Mr. Fournette needs to be himself.

Harris ranked 7th in the league is QB efficiency in 2015. The main knock on him was inaccuracy. Completing only 53.6% of his passes put Harris at 95th in the country in that category. Certainly drops hurt him, but he missed a number of balls that should have been on target. To see the two sides of Harris’ season, compare these two stretches of games. First the Tigers played South Carolina, Florida and Western Kentucky to round out October. Then the next four games were against Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.

Record	Comp. %	Yards/Att.	TD-INT
3-0	62.7	10.7	7-0
1-3	47.6	6.4	3-5

The numbers are quite stark and show a complete collapse by Harris in the month of November. 

So what do we look for in 2016?  One would hope that with a complete year under his belt the game will slow down a bit for Harris.  Will he read through his progressions more effectively and quicker to get the ball out on time and accurately? 


Another aspect of his game that I would like to see is the ability to make a play when the pocket breaks down. I’m sure Cam Cameron is focused on making Harris a better pocket passer, but he is also a dangerous as a rusher. In 2015, Harris averaged 6.9 yards per carry. (Excluding sack yardage)


DEFENSE


LSU has plenty of experience coming back for 2016.  However, recent injuries to Christian LaCouture (DE), Isaiah Washington (LB) and Corey Thompson (S) will test LSU’s depth.  The Tigers have plenty of talent to step into those roles, but the younger plays will have to step up quickly.


LSU’s new defensive coordinator is highly respected and brings with him a highly successful resume.  Over the last three seasons, Wisconsin has had one of the best defenses in the country.

Season	Total yards	Yards/play	Scoring D	Opp. 3rd Down Conv. %
2013	305.1 (7)	4.73 (8)	16.3 (6)	30.7% (4)
2014	294.1 (4)	4.91 (21)	20.8 (17)	28.4% (3)
2015	268.5 (2)	4.41 (4)	13.7 (1)	31.2% (11)

* Number in parenthesis national rank.


LSU is switching to a 3-4 alignment from a 4-3.  Here are the wiki links that explain the 3-4 and the 4-3 if your are curious.  Most importantly the Tigers have multiple NFL players on the defensive side of the ball.  This group has the opportunity to be the best unit since the 2011 defense that dominated college football. 


Given the talent level that LSU has, many, including me, are expecting big things from LSU’s defense.


SPECIAL TEAMS


Kick coverage in 2015 was atrocious, easily the worst in the Miles era.  All we can do is hope that it gets better.  LSU has solid kickers and this area will hopefully be a strength for the Tigers.  Colby Delahoussaye returns for his senior season and should handle the PK duties.  Another Aussie, Josh Growden, is the likely punter.