The Reign of O Begins

Back on September 26, 2000, I watched LSU take on Auburn at the home of a fraternity brother. LSU lost 34-17 in a rather unmemorable game. However, two things still stick in my mind to this day. One, someone let their four year old repeatedly run in front of the TV during the game. (RUDE!!)  The other was a comment repeated by someone's wife multiple times during the game, “we paid $1.2 million for this?”

She was referring to the, at the time, very large salary of Mr. Nicolas Lou Saban Jr. Of course Saban has gone on to be arguably the greatest college head coach of all time. And to think LSU got him for the paltry price of $1.2 million!

On the front end of each of these coaching hires everyone is an expert. On the back end, everyone will say 'I told you so'.

In 2008, Clemson promoted 39 year old wide receiver coach Dabo Swinney to head coach. He had never been a head coach or coordinator at any level. Seven years later, Swinney was a few plays away from winning a National Title in the 2015 Championship game versus Alabama.

In 1998, USC hired the well regarded Paul Hackett as their head coach. Hackett had won a Super Bowl with the 49ers as their offensive coordinator in 1984. He also served as the Chiefs' offensive coordinator from 1993-1997, making the playoffs four times. But Hackett was fired from USC after three disappointing years with a record of 19-18.

Finally, I would point you to Jeremy Foley at Florida. The same man that hired Urban Meyer and Billy Donovan also hired Ron Zook and Will Muschamp.

The point being, we don't really know how these coaching hires will go. But I get the feeling a segment of the LSU fan base has already given up any hope that the Orgeron era will be a success. Were there more “qualified” candidates out there? Yes. Were there candidates with better resumes out there? Yes. Was I hoping for a head coach with a sharp offensive mind? Yes!

But I'm happy to give Coach O a chance. He's tasted failure. He knows many folks locally and nationally think he's in over his head. I like that. It makes him hungry. He's going to out work people. He's going to expect the best from his assistants. He's got a chip on his shoulder, a chip that will be taken up by his players.

It's an unorthodox hire for sure. And it just may damn well put LSU back on top.

Alabama Wins...Again

Another Bama game, another disappointing loss. While the game remained 0-0 for three and a half quarters, LSU was never really in a position to put a real scare in the Crimson Tide. This was a valiant effort by the Tigers. But right now Alabama is just better. Alabama is the best program in the country and possibly the greatest college football dynasty of all time.

A few observations:

The positives first, LSU has a national championship caliber defense. Bama came in averaging 44 points a game and was only able to manage to put up 10 on Saturday. Throw in forcing two turnovers and a great goal line stand, and the defense was just fantastic.

• Beckwith will be All-SEC at the LB position. He has been magnificent all season and a great example of why guys can really benefit from coming back for their senior year.
• The kicking game was solid except for the blocked FG. I had a few choice words for Tre White when he fielded a punt inside of LSU's own five yard line.
• Now for the bad, LSU's offensive line got pushed around all night. The line couldn't open holes or hold the space allowing Fournette to get loose. Bama usually only had seven in the box as well. Pass protection was a problem all night with Etling getting sacked five times.
• Speaking of Etling, he struggled terribly. Even when he got time he couldn't take advantage of the opportunities presented. He hurried throws and just looked uncomfortable all night.
• Fournette also missed a few cut back lanes that he could have exploited with Bama's relentless pursuit.
• In watching the replay, LSU had some opportunities on offense. The play calling was designed to try and give our play makers a chance. But the margin of error was small and the Tigers just couldn't capitalize.

Reality Check

Some people complained about play calling and the struggles on offense. I get it. But folks have to realize that Alabama has a front seven with seven NFL players. LSU's offensive line is good but not special. The Tigers got no push up front which really limits what you can do. Danny Etling can be productive, but he's limited. He's not a threat to run which seems to be a requirement for beating Alabama. LSU must completely revamp the offense and start developing QB's. Nothing will change until the Tigers address the problems that have plagued the program for years.

I mentioned earlier just how dominant Alabama has been since Saban's return in 2007. Look at these crazy numbers.

Opponent	Record
LSU (includes 2011 NC Game)	8-3
Mississippi State	8-1
Ole Miss	8-2
Auburn	6-3
Arkansas	10-0
Texas A&M	4-1
SEC East (includes 5 SEC Title Games)	27-3
Non Conference (including Notre Dame, Michigan, Clemson, Ohio State, Penn State, Oklahoma, Utah, WVU, Wisconsin, Colorado, Va Tech, Texas and Michigan State)	11-3

No one has more has more wins over Alabama than LSU over the last 10 years.

The Hogs

We all know about the hangover effect after the Alabama game. The Tigers have has a few bye weeks this season already so they should be in good shape even after the physical Alabama game. Coach O will stay positive and I still think there is a good vibe around the program. Will the players stay focused now that the SEC Title is out of reach? I think so. Arkansas is 11^th in the SEC giving up almost 200 yards per game. They are also 13^th in the league and 108^th in the nation in 3^rd down conversion defense. If LSU's offensive line can regroup for a good showing, the Tigers should put up plenty of points.

LSU 34 – Ark 20

Playoffs Week 10:

No change since the last post, Alabama, Clemson Washington and Michigan.

Momma!! Make the Bad Man Stop!!!

Leonard Fournette will not win the Heisman, but to my purple and gold tinted glasses, he is the best player in the country. Look no further than Saturday night's record setting performance, 284 yards on 16 carries with three touchdowns. Fournette's scores came from 78, 76 and 59 yards. He was a beast showing that rare combination of power and elite level top end speed. Savor it LSU's fans. It will be a looooong time before we see anyone in his class again.

After a tight first half, the Tigers dominated the final thirty minutes. That's a trend that has yielded a 73-7 second half scoring advantage for the Tigers since Coach O took over. A few observations:

• Etling continued his nice play. He finished the game 19 of 28 for 204 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. He did have one fumble but that was a vicious hit from an unblocked Ole Miss defender.
• Speaking of the fumble, I think LSU was a bit too aggressive there. On it's own 17 with only a minute left, LSU looked to start a drive with a play action pass that ended up with Etling fumbling. Ole Miss got the ball at LSU's nine and scored with a few seconds left to go into the half.
• I thought the play calling in the first quarter was too clever. I'm happy the offense is mixing it up, but against a team as weak in run defense as Ole Miss, I was willing to line up and play a little smash mouth mixing in the play action pass. The play calling eventually settled down and Fournette began romping to a historic night.
• Since Coach O took over, LSU is averaging 8.6 yards per play. In the previous four games, the Tigers averaged 5.8.
• LSU's second half was an example of the type of killer instinct Miles never engaged in. The Tigers locked down on defense AND kept up the pressure offensively culminating in an 11 play TD drive that took six minutes off the clock and effectively sealed the game.
• After going down 10-0, the defense really clamped down on Ole Miss. If not for the fumble late in the first half, the Rebs would have been held to under 20 points.
• Beckwith was a laser guided missile all night. He was the embodiment of Mike the Tiger hunting and killing his prey.

Playoffs Week 8:

A little shake up this week! Ohio State fell at Penn State this weekend so Washington jumps in there with Alabama, Clemson and Michigan.

Big Plays Put Eagles Away

After an unexpected bye week, the Tigers returned to the field in triumphant fashion over an outmatched Southern Miss team. LSU looked disinterested and sloppy in the first half, but blew the game open with 35 second half points. The Tigers ran 10 plays in the third quarter resulting in 28 points. For the game, LSU ran 42 plays resulting in 45 points. A few observations:

1. I still don't know how good LSU is. The Tigers' best win is over...4-3 USM? Giant test this weekend against Ole Miss.
2. The defense is giving up only 14 points a game to rank #4 in the nation. LSU is #1 nationally in red zone TD defense. Teams are scoring a little less than one TD per four red zone trips. The Tigers are also only allowing opponents to convert 30.9% of their third down opportunities.
3. Danny Etling is moving up the stats chart as well. He is now ranked 5^th in QB efficiency in the SEC. He is also 5^th in yards per attempt (7.8) and completion percentage (58.8). On third downs with 1-9 yards for a first, Etling is 15 for 23 with 12 first downs. That's a 52% conversion rate. For comparison Harris converted only 38.8% of his third down attempts into first downs.

Ole Miss is up next for the Tigers. The Tigers are a 5 ½ point favorite over the 3-3 Rebels. Ole Miss has played a tough schedule, but who have they beat? Georgia? Memphis? Saturday will be a real test for both teams. Ole Miss has a dynamic offense lead by Chad Kelly. But the defense has struggled giving up 446 yards a game, dead last in the conference and 104^th nationally. Expect an inspired effort from both teams but with home field advantage and the return of Leonard Fournette, I like LSU.

LSU 34 – Ole Miss 24

Odds and Ends

• I'm tired of the LSU – UF drama but I will say this about the entire episode: I am glad the game will be played. It is a shame it took an ugly turn because UF and the SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey completely mismanaged the situation. Now both UF and Sankey are trying to deflect blame to LSU for their lack of foresight. Alleva made the best out of a bad situation mishandled by Sankey who has taken to making cheap shots at LSU.
• I have no idea who will be LSU's next head coach. I think the short list starts and ends with Jimbo Fisher. I think if LSU backs up the money truck they can get him. Tom Herman at Houston is also a hot name. The only question is his small body of work as a head coach. Other coaches I would look at would be Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State, Wille Taggert at USF and the guy running the shop right now Ed Orgeron. I think the only way Orgeron gets the job is if the top names on Alleva's list say no.
• Derrius Guice reached the career 1,000 yard mark in only 113 carries. That works out to be 8.8 yards a carry. Fastest to 1,000 yards in LSU history.

Playoffs Week 7:

I'm sticking with Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson. I don't see either Big 10 team losing before the big showdown in the Horseshoe. Washington and Texas A&M are viable candidates as well.

Now this one was fun!!

A Smashing Debut

Les Miles coached LSU for 148 games. Ed Orgeron has coached LSU for one game. In that one contest, Coach O's offense put up more yards in a single game than Miles ever did in his entire tenure. If that isn't an indictment of Miles' gross offensive incompetence I don't know what is.

OK. I'm done bashing Miles and his stone age offense.

A few observations:

• Our defense was fantastic. Mizzu came into the game leading the SEC in offense scoring over 44.5 points per game. LSU held the other Tigers to 7 points and 265 yards.
• Mizzu went three and out their first three drives of the game.
• That was the offense LSU is capable of. In the context of one week's preparation, the Tigers were able to use their power running and open up the passing game.
• LSU had 42:00+ in time of possession. Amazing!
• Etling needs to work on his deep passes. He over threw three deep balls with open receivers. But otherwise he was efficient hitting 9 different receivers for over 200 yards.
• Etling needs to learn how to get out of bounds or slide. He took too may shots for my liking.
• The Tigers were in three and four wide formations for a big portion of the game. The staff also mixed in the I formation to good effect as well.
• The players noted that a lighter practice schedule helped with staying fresh and having more energy.

The Swamp

Coach O faces a huge test this weekend traveling to Florida. LSU has won five of the last six in this series. The Tigers are 4-3 in Gainesville the last seven visits. UF leads the league in defense giving up only 230 yards per game and 11.6 points per game. Those numbers are a little deceiving in that four of their five opponents are ranked 102^nd or worse in offense nationally. LSU opened up as a 2 ½ point favorite for Saturday's game. Expect a big effort form the Tigers in a relatively low scoring game. LSU has some real mojo going with the change of regime.

LSU 24 – UF 16

Playoffs Week 5:

After five weeks, the combined record of three of my original playoff picks (LSU, TCU, FSU) is 9-6.  Ouch!  But Michigan is still rolling along.  I think the Big 12 and Pac-12 will end with 2+ loss champions opening the door to the OSU - Michigan loser.

Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson

Les Is No More

It's over folks. Les Miles is no longer LSU's head football coach. He finishes with a 114-34 record at LSU, three SEC West Titles, two SEC Titles, two National Title game appearances and one National Title in 2007. He is on LSU Football's Mount Rushmore along side Nick Saban, Charles McClendon and Paul Dietzel.

A number of factors led to Miles' dismissal. But first and foremost was his inability to evolve on the offensive side of the ball. In an age of high flying prolific spread offenses, Miles was stuck trying to play football in a phone booth. LSU's scheme and play calling were predictable and unimaginative. The Tigers were able to generally overcome such obstacles because of the amount of talent that came through Tiger Stadium. But Miles' inability to recruit or develop a serviceable quarterback magnified the problems with the offensive philosophy. Since 2009, LSU has finished 94^th or worse in passing yards per game 6 times. LSU is well on its way to continue that trend after four games in 2016. Miles' style of play and refusal to adapt to the changing nature of college football were ultimately his undoing.

When I look back at his tenure, there are numerous great moments. But I will also carry the memory when he lost me as a fan. On October 1, 2011, LSU faced Kentucky in Tiger Stadium. At that point, Jarrett Lee led the SEC in QB efficiency. He was 56 of 87 (64.3%) for 644 yards 7 TD's and 1 INT after four games. Lee had been fantastic thus far that season. In the first quarter of that game, Lee had driven LSU deep into Kentucky territory and was poised to score. But Miles ran Jordan Jefferson out on the field to a cascade of boos. Jefferson ran the ball in to score but the move obviously affected Lee as he only completed 38% of his passes on that day. Miles eventually replaced Lee for good after the Alabama “Game of the Century”. In the last two games of the season, the SEC Title game and the National Title game, Jefferson ran or passed the ball a combined 50 times. In those 50 plays, he generated a grand total of 93 yards, a whopping 1.8 yards per play. His QB rating of 80.9 for those two games was abysmal. No need to rehash the National Title game disaster.

After the 21-0 beating and Miles' refusal to pull Jefferson I was done sticking up for Les.

Miles had a chance at redemption in 2012. Alabama visited LSU as the Tigers played their hearts out that November evening. But Miles went super conservative late in the game and allowed Alabama to stick around and eventually win. Zach Mettenberger was on fire going 24 of 35 for 298 yards and a TD. But on two late drives, Miles went into a shell and took the ball out of his hands. Two promising drives that could have killed the game resulted in zero points. Alabama then scored with 51 seconds left to win and continue on to another National Title.

Since then, LSU has steadily regressed despite continuing to put numerous players in the NFL. It was time for a change. I encourage everyone to support our players and cheer on the Tigers to better days. There are eight games left and plenty of opportunities to make LSU football fun again.

Keep the faith and Geaux Tigers.

A Les Miles Special

Les gets to keep his job for another week. That's about the most significant observation I took from this game. It was typical Miles. For part of the game, LSU looked like the team we all thought they could be. But a lack of focus led to turnovers and penalties in the second half. Some will criticize Fournette's two fumbles, but LSU went three and out three times in the second half. After seeing LSU for three games, I have little faith in Miles leading LSU to enough victories to save his job.

How many wins does he need? My guess is 10. If LSU beats everyone except Bama and finishes 10-2 it would be very tough to get rid of him. But 9-3 could lead to his ouster. LSU still has to face Bama, Ole Miss, Florida, Arkansas and A&M. If he goes 4-1 against that group he deserves to stay.

Observations:

• Malachi Dupre really stepped up and played up to his potential. Excellent game from him.
• Why did it take so long to get Etling on the field? Had they put him in versus Wisconsin, the Tigers probably win that game.
• Fournette looked good. Not sure if there are any lingering leg issues, but he looked his old self. I'm not worried about the fumbles. He's just pressing a bit I think.
• The offensive play calling was very good for the most part. Even in the second half the staff was trying to move the ball. These guys are coaching for their jobs.
• The defense was great until the last 7 minutes of the game. The Tigers struggled in coverage but Key came up with a huge sack to seal the victory.
• Kevin Tolliver had a very rough night covering MSU's #1 receiver Fred Ross. He must get better as the season moves along.

Auburn up next...

As hot as Miles' seat is, Malzahn's is even worse. After leading AU to the 2013 Title Game, its been a steady decline. The other Tigers have gone 2-10 in their last 12 SEC games. The offense is struggling and the defense isn't good enough to win games all by itself. Having said that, LSU's offense isn't much better. But the Bengal Tigers are doing a better job on defense giving up only 16.3 points a game. Auburn is a very tough place to play. I expect a fairly low scoring game. LSU is a 3 point favorite as of this writing. I like Etling's poise thus far and he will make enough plays on third down for the Tigers to come out with a win.

LSU 27 – Auburn 17

Playoffs Week 3:

Three weeks and three of my initial playoff teams now have a loss, only Michigan remains.  This has the makings of a wild season.  

Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Louisville

I have a feeling Les knows his days are numbered at LSU. He's saying all the right things but he doesn't look like he actually believes them. After another dreadful start, Harris was benched for Danny Etling. Etling led the Tigers to three quick second quarter TD's. Coupled with White's wild punt return for a TD, LSU effectively put the game away by halftime. A few observations:

• I think Harris' career at LSU is over. He has zero confidence and looked terrible in his two series. Don't be surprised if he transfers at the end of the season. Add his name to the list of QB's Miles has failed to develop into a competent passer.
• The talking heads keep saying that Harris needs to be kept in the fold and even see playing time. My question is why? I honestly can't tell you when he is prepared to play or not. He knows the plays by now, right? He's practiced with the first team all spring and summer. If he's needed they will throw him back out there. If he's that mentally frail, how can we expect anything from him?
• Malachi Dupre needs to take a seat next to Harris. This guy has been a HUGE disappointment. Time for a new #2 WR.
• Etling started 6 for 8 for 100 yards and a TD. After the half he was 0 for 6 with one rushing TD, an INT and a fumble. It seemed the play calling changed in the second half and Etling's performance suffered.
• It's a sign of how low things have gotten when a guy goes 6 for 14 for 100 yards is being considered a savior. (His QB rating would be 12^th in the league had he played in both games.) Regardless of how well Etling plays, LSU's archaic offense will be this team's undoing.
• No matter how good he turns out to be, I have no faith in Miles' offense. His meddling in the play calling will cost LSU games this season and ultimately his job. LSU currently ranks 113^th in the country in total offense.
• With the exception of the long pass play I was happy with the defense. At this point, the players need to embrace their roles and mind their assignments. The Tigers need to be disciplined on defense.
• The paper reported that Miles and Aleva spoke after the Wisconsin game last week. Would have loved to be a fly on the wall for that chat.

Mississippi State

LSU has owned this series for years. LSU is 27-4 versus the Bulldogs dating back to 1985. MSU is giving up only 2.13 yards per carry on defense. On offense, State's QB, Nick Fitzgerald passed for 178 yards and ran for 195 last week versus South Carolina. Look for him to give LSU's defense plenty of trouble.

Regardless of Fournette's health, LSU will continue to rely on the running game. Etling will be forced to make some plays on 3^rd down to keep drives moving. The game will probably be relatively low scoring. LSU wins, but only because the game is at home.

LSU 23 – Mississippi State 20

Playoffs Week 2:

Two weeks and I lost two of my playoff teams.  Loser of Michigan vs. Ohio State will be looking pretty good.

Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State

Inside the numbers...

 

Brandon Harris has played in 5 true road games (at Auburn, at MSU, at Syracuse, at Alabama and at Ole Miss) and one semi-road game (Wisconsin at Lambeau).  His numbers from those games are just plain ugly.

 

Opponent	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TD’s	INT’s
Auburn	14	3	58	0	0
MSU	14	9	71	0	0
Syracuse	16	8	157	1	0
Alabama	19	6	128	1	1
Ole Miss	51	26	271	1	1
Wisconsin	21	12	131	1	2
TOTALS	64	135	816	4	4

 

That’s a 47.4% completion rate and 6 yards per attempt.  The young man simply does not have the poise to play in hostile environments.  This isn’t a personal attack or a question of his character or anything like that.  It’s an observation that was encapsulated in the game sealing interception against Wisconsin.  The stage and the situation are just too big for him.

 

Bruce Feldman wrote a great book called “The QB: The Making of Modern Quarterbacks” which I read a year or two ago.  In it, there is a repeated reference to guys having that “it factor.”  Be it confidence, poise, swagger or composure, it was deemed an integral part of success of a college and pro QB.  It’s become painfully obvious that Harris doesn’t have “it.”

 

With road games at Auburn, at Florida, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M, LSU’s prospects with Harris look exceedingly dim.  I have been to all of those stadiums minus Arkansas.  They can get ridiculously loud and intimidating.  All of those teams will be crowding the line and daring Harris to make a play.  I genuinely hope he can figure this out, but I’m not holding my breath.

Welcome to the Les Miles Farewell Tour

As the first quarter closed I realized that all my hopes for this season were misplaced. I knew nothing would change on the offense, but I hoped maybe LSU would efficiently execute Miles' pre-historic game plan. Nope. LSU's offense looked like a steaming pile of garbage. As I sat in the stands at Lambeau field at the half, I genuinely wanted to leave, walk away from the disappointment, walk away from Miles' cluelessness, walk away from watching bad football. Of course I stuck it out, only to be disappointed again as Harris threw a pass straight to a defender with a minute left. It was first down, LSU only need a few more yards for a reasonable FG attempt. But the game was over and all thoughts of a special season went out the window.

Miles is now 2-4 in his last 6 games. In those 6 games, LSU has scored 16, 14, 17, 19, 56 and 14 points. Clearly the offense is broken and Miles has done NOTHING to fix the problem. His brush with getting fired changed nothing in his mind about LSU's offensive woes or philosophy.

LSU's national rankings in passing yards per game since 2009:

2009: 97

2010: 107

2011: 106

2012: 94

2013: 45

2014: 116

2015: 106

2016: 107

We call this a systemic problem. With as much talent as LSU has had, it's absurd that these numbers exist. Unless the players make an amazing turn around, Miles will be gone at the end of the season, a season too late. A few observations:

• If I was Joe Aleva, I would be telling anyone that would listen, “I told you so.”
• To all the fans that said keep Miles, you are fully deserving of the crappy brand of football you saw on Saturday.
• Harris is still erratic, inaccurate and lacks poise. The INT to end the game was just brutal. Just a terrible play from a guy that's started as many games as he has.
• Feel bad for Fournette. He's not going to win a Heisman trophy because Miles has refused to embrace a more open offense. He did have 176 all-purpose yards.
• The offensive line was poor. There were multiple missed assignments and breakdowns. The tackles struggled with the edge rushers and even when LSU had a nice play called the linemen didn't deliver.
• The defense couldn't get off the field at times. But they only gave up 16 points and forced three turnovers. An OK showing under a new coordinator.
• Tre'davious White had a great game. The pick 6 energized the Tigers then a fumble recovery on the next series set up LSU's second TD.
• Wisconsin is going to win some football games this season. A really tough schedule may keep them out of the Big Ten Title game. Their staff did a great job preparing for LSU.

Looking Ahead

The Tigers return home to face Jacksonville State on Saturday. We should win easily but Jacksonville State has given other SEC teams fits the last few years. Very curious to see how the players respond. I expect a very sluggish start but eventually LSU will win a game that is much closer than it should be.

Looking down the road, LSU should beat Miss St., Mizzu, Southern Miss and South Alabama. Games against Alabama and Florida will most likely be losses. The remaining games versus Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M are all toss ups. I know its only one game, but at this point, the Tigers look like an 8-4 football team, at best.

Some would argue that Miles strengthened his position after last year's late season fiasco. I disagree. Every loss strengthens Aleva's argument that Miles should have been replaced last season. Miles refused to make any significant changes regarding the offense which shows he will NEVER change. He's at an age where he will go down doing it his way. Damn the consequences. It is clear LSU will not win anything of significance with Miles as coach and LSU fans deserve better. #FireLesMiles

LSU 17 – J' State 16

Playoffs Week 1:

That didn't take long!  One week and I lost one of my playoff teams.  No matter, plenty of time to get the other three knocked off.

Alabama, TCU, Michigan, Florida State

2016 Predictions

Conference Champs

ACC:  Florida State

Big Ten: Ohio State

Big 12: TCU

Pac 12: UCLA

SEC: LSU


Top 5 games of the season:


LSU v. Alabama
FSU v. Clemson
Ohio State v. Michigan
TCU v. Oklahoma
Oklahoma v. Ohio State

Coaches most likely to get fired:

 

Darrell Hazell, Purdue – 2-22 in the Big Ten over 3 years is not good.

Gus Malzahn, Auburn – after a 2013 trip to the National Title Game, Auburn has gone 6-10 in the SEC and is looking at another tough season.  A 6-6 record and another loss to Alabama will make things interesting at the end of the season.

Paul Petrino, Idaho – Going 6-29 in your first 3 seasons leaves no room for error in year 4.

 

Three BOLD Predictions:

 

Stanford will go 6-6.  A new QB and road games at UCLA, Washington, Oregon and Notre Dame will cause Stanford lots of problems.

 

Brandon Harris will have 20+ TD passes.  I really don’t have any argument to back this up.

 

Michigan will go 12-0 in the regular season.  Call it the second year bounce.  Looking at recent history, a number of coaches have done very well in the second year at a school. A few examples:

 

Urban Meyer, Florida 2006 (11-1) won National Title

Nick Saban, Alabama 2008 (12-0)

Gene Chizik, Auburn 2010 (12-0) won National Title

Chip Kelly, Oregon 2010 (12-0) played for National Title

Playoffs: LSU, TCU, Michigan, Florida State

LSU Preview

I want to believe. I really do. I want to believe that Les Miles can still win big games. I want to believe that LSU can beat Alabama. I want to believe that LSU will have good quarterback play. I want to believe all of those things. Because if they are all true, it means that LSU will be in the playoffs at the end of the season. It means that LSU will have won its first division and SEC Title since 2011. It means that joy and merriment will be back in Tiger Town.

The numbers back up the idea of an LSU team poised for great things. Phil Steele has LSU ranked 8th in the country in most experience returning. (math nerds can click here) The Tigers have 11 senior starters. Over 97% of last year’s offensive production is returning. Oh…and LSU has that Fournette dude.



The problem is I can’t shake the feeling that Miles is going to play things too safe. One reason for Alabama’s success is their ability to put teams away and play in very few tight games. Les Miles seems just the opposite. The Tigers are always seemingly in tight games, and if you play in enough of those, you will come up short because your margin of error is so small.

OFFENSE

The offense can be broken down as follows:

1. Brandon Harris must be more consistent.
2. The receivers need to catch the ball.
3. The offensive line must jell.
4. Mr. Fournette needs to be himself.

Harris ranked 7th in the league is QB efficiency in 2015. The main knock on him was inaccuracy. Completing only 53.6% of his passes put Harris at 95th in the country in that category. Certainly drops hurt him, but he missed a number of balls that should have been on target. To see the two sides of Harris’ season, compare these two stretches of games. First the Tigers played South Carolina, Florida and Western Kentucky to round out October. Then the next four games were against Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.

Record	Comp. %	Yards/Att.	TD-INT
3-0	62.7	10.7	7-0
1-3	47.6	6.4	3-5

The numbers are quite stark and show a complete collapse by Harris in the month of November. 

So what do we look for in 2016?  One would hope that with a complete year under his belt the game will slow down a bit for Harris.  Will he read through his progressions more effectively and quicker to get the ball out on time and accurately? 


Another aspect of his game that I would like to see is the ability to make a play when the pocket breaks down. I’m sure Cam Cameron is focused on making Harris a better pocket passer, but he is also a dangerous as a rusher. In 2015, Harris averaged 6.9 yards per carry. (Excluding sack yardage)


DEFENSE


LSU has plenty of experience coming back for 2016.  However, recent injuries to Christian LaCouture (DE), Isaiah Washington (LB) and Corey Thompson (S) will test LSU’s depth.  The Tigers have plenty of talent to step into those roles, but the younger plays will have to step up quickly.


LSU’s new defensive coordinator is highly respected and brings with him a highly successful resume.  Over the last three seasons, Wisconsin has had one of the best defenses in the country.

Season	Total yards	Yards/play	Scoring D	Opp. 3rd Down Conv. %
2013	305.1 (7)	4.73 (8)	16.3 (6)	30.7% (4)
2014	294.1 (4)	4.91 (21)	20.8 (17)	28.4% (3)
2015	268.5 (2)	4.41 (4)	13.7 (1)	31.2% (11)

* Number in parenthesis national rank.


LSU is switching to a 3-4 alignment from a 4-3.  Here are the wiki links that explain the 3-4 and the 4-3 if your are curious.  Most importantly the Tigers have multiple NFL players on the defensive side of the ball.  This group has the opportunity to be the best unit since the 2011 defense that dominated college football. 


Given the talent level that LSU has, many, including me, are expecting big things from LSU’s defense.


SPECIAL TEAMS


Kick coverage in 2015 was atrocious, easily the worst in the Miles era.  All we can do is hope that it gets better.  LSU has solid kickers and this area will hopefully be a strength for the Tigers.  Colby Delahoussaye returns for his senior season and should handle the PK duties.  Another Aussie, Josh Growden, is the likely punter.