Running for Glory

 

One third of LSU’s season is on the books and some questions have been answered while others still hang in the air.

What we know…

* Leonard Fournette is a monster.  Fournette is the front runner for the Heisman Trophy and has plenty more opportunities to cement his position.  He’s on pace to rush for 2300 yards which I don’t think is realistic.  But he has the potential to break 1600 yards with 20+ TD’s.

* LSU’s offensive line is good and getting better each week.  The Tigers are also building depth in that group.

* The receivers still drop too many passes.  I hear all the talk about that group, but I am unimpressed thus far.

* Brandon Harris can handle the job.  He’s done everything the coaches have asked of him.  He was the biggest question mark and he’s really delivered.

What we don’t know…

* How good is this defense?  The Tigers rank 5^th in the SEC giving up 4.46 yards per play.  The pass defense has been effective giving up only 5.3 yards an attempt, tied for best in the SEC.  But the big plays on defense haven’t really been there.  The Tigers are 11^th in the SEC in tackles for loss per game and tied for last in the conference in total takeaways.  The Tigers are averaging three sacks per game, a stark improvement over the last year.  LSU’s next four opponents are not particularly strong on offense, so we may have to wait until the Alabama game until we get a true read on the Tiger defense.

* Will Brandon Harris be able to make throws when LSU needs him to make a play?  He has not had to make any plays in crunch time and we just won’t know until we get there.  South Carolina will be another good road test for Harris.  A home game against Florida will present the best defense LSU will have faced up until that point.  With Cameron’s coaching and time to bring Harris along slowly, I am optimistic that things will continue to go well at the position.

* Can Miles find his 2007 coaching mojo? Miles played to win that season and LSU won a National Title.  Since then, game plans have been generally more conservative.  The Tigers will have to take some risks to overcome Ole Miss and Alabama on the road.  Will the “play to win” Les show up in those games and give the Tigers a chance?

No worries this week.  Fournette gets his 200+ yards and 3 TD’s before finding the bench in the 3^rd quarter.

 LSU 55 – Eastern Michigan 10

 

 

 

In no particular order – Ohio State, Baylor, Georgia, Utah

LSU 2015 Preview

 

 

2015 is LSU’s 11th season under Les Miles, and accordingly, another season with ominous questions about the QB position.  Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris will again compete for the starting spot on another talented LSU squad.  Neither has inspired much confidence in their careers at LSU.  Jennings has career numbers of 124 of 256 for 1,792 yards, 8 INT’s and 12 TD’s.  While his completion percentage is a wretched 48.4%, his 7 yards per attempt is…average.  There are just not a lot of good things to say about Jennings play or his numbers.  Harris has so few snaps under his belt the numbers are almost meaningless.  It’s undisputed that Harris has the most talent and upside.  But Jennings has the experience.

2015 is LSU’s 11th season under Les Miles, and accordingly, another season with ominous questions about the QB position.  Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris will again compete for the starting spot on another talented LSU squad.

The general consensus coming out of fall practice is that Harris has pulled away from Jennings and will eventually be the starter.  TAKE IT TO THE BANK, unless Harris gets hurt, he will be the starter for LSU’s opening game.

The rest of the team is in very good shape.  A quick preview of the offense and defense:

OFFENSE

The offensive line has a mix of experience and youth.  Last season LSU was able to run effectively at times against 8 man fronts.  With a (hopefully) improved passing game, this group is talented enough to lead LSU to a big season.  All the skill players are back which should help the passing game move forward.  Leonard Fournette is a beast and will only be better this season.  He is getting a lot of talk for the Heisman which is great for him and LSU, but he won’t win it.  Not because he’s not talented enough, but because of two factors out of his control.  Number one, he won’t get enough touches.  He really needs to get between 25-30 a game to get the kind of numbers needed to push for that top spot.  Number two, LSU just is not good enough as a team to push for a spot in the playoffs.  But an invite to New York is a definite possibility.

DEFENSE

The departure of John Chavis will make this an interesting transition year for the defense.  The secondary is the star unit on that side of the ball.  Jalen Mills has started since his freshmen year and can be counted on to play well every week.  Jamal Adams is an elite player who will eventually be a first round draft pick.  The defensive line has question marks but Davon Godchaux and Christian Lacouture should be solid in the middle.  Kendall Beckwith is an All-SEC player at middle linebacker and will anchor LSU’s defense.  This unit has future NFL players all over the field.  If new coordinator Kevin Steele can get everyone on the same page, look out.

Odds and Ends

* Over the last 10 years, LSU has the 6^th best home winning percentage in college football at 87.5%.  That also ranks 1^st in the SEC.  Think about that for a moment.  While the SEC won an unprecedented SEVEN national titles in a row and clearly staked its claim as the toughest conference in America, Tiger Stadium was the toughest SEC venue for opponents to “secure victory.”  Well done Tigers.  Those on the field and those in the stands can take a bow.

* Since 2009, the Tigers are 34-4 in Tiger Stadium.  The only losses coming to a Tebow led Gators team that finished 13-1 (2009), eventual National Champion Alabama (2012), a Mississippi State team that reached the #1 spot in the polls that season (2014) and an Alabama squad that reached the College Football Playoff (2014).  

* LSU ranks 13th in the country and 2nd in the SEC in conference winning percentage over that last 10 years.  Miles has won 69% of his SEC games since arriving.  As expected, Bama is 1st in the SEC winning 76.5% of its conference games over that same period.

* LSU has won 49 consecutive non-conference games, the longest in FBS history.  With LSU's non-conference schedule this season, the Tigers are a good bet to get to 53 in a row.

Final Thoughts

It’s undisputed that LSU is one of the more talented teams in the country.  But the question has always been, “who is going to play quarterback for the Tigers?”  With Brandon Harris under center, LSU becomes a real wild card in the SEC West.  As noted earlier, LSU has been dominant at home.  The only team I see that has the potential to be good enough to come into Tiger Stadium this season and get a win is Auburn.  Texas A&M and Arkansas will be real tests while I expect Florida to struggle.  The big road games are obviously Alabama and Ole Miss.

Given the news coming out of camp and what I have heard through a few people I trust, I am confident Harris will be the starter this season.  I’ve updated my preview for the SEC West based on Harris’ potential at the QB position.  I think the Tigers can go 10-2 this season, if not better.  If LSU can get past Miss. State and Auburn early, the Tigers could go into the Alabama game 8-0.  Now wouldn’t that be something?

SEC West

This is possibly the toughest year to try and pick the winner of the SEC West.  There are so many questions about each team. 

Alabama is loaded again, but all of the top skill guys are gone (Sims, Yeldon and Cooper).  The offensive line is relatively inexperienced with only 40 starts between the entire unit.  Compare that to Ole Miss which has a whopping 120 starts between its returning offensive linemen.  The defense will be top notch as always.  The Tide get Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee at home but must travel to Auburn and Georgia.

Arkansas is a real wild card this season.  The Hogs were very close to pulling early season upsets before going 3-1 to end the year.  During that four game stretch, Arkansas beat LSU, Ole Miss and Texas by a combined score of 78-7.  Plenty of experience returns on both sides of the ball including senior QB Brandon Allen.  Arkansas plays Auburn at home but must visit Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU.

 

Auburn probably has the best QB in the league but only returns two starters on offense.  The defense will improve under Muschamp but by how much remains to be seen.  Using Phil Steele’s calculations, Auburn ranks 115^th of 128 teams in returning experience.  The Tigers will have a lot of learning to do as the season progresses. Auburn gets Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama at home with road trips to LSU and Arkansas.

LSU has been plagued by poor QB play.  It appears Harris will be the starter for LSU on opening night.  Effective QB play could make LSU a contender in the SEC West. The Tigers return many key players on both sides of the ball but questions will be asked about the defense led by new coordinator Kevin Steele.  LSU has regressed a bit each year since 2011.  The Tigers get Florida, Texas A&M, Auburn and Arkansas at home but must travel to Ole Miss and Alabama.

Mississippi State had a fantastic year in 2014.  But it won’t be repeated in 2015.  There are way too many losses on the offensive line.  The schedule will be markedly tougher as well as State gets LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss at home while traveling to Auburn, A&M, Arkansas and Mizzu.

Ole Miss is again a media darling with multiple publications placing them right outside of the Top 10.  The hype may be warranted. As I mentioned earlier, the OL is loaded with experience.  Clemson transfer Chad Kelly replaces “Good/Bad” Bo Wallace at QB.  The defense was nasty last year but ultimately wore down as the season went on giving up 35, 30, 17 and 42 in the last four games of the season vs. FBS competition.  The home schedule includes Arkansas and LSU with away trips to Alabama, Auburn and Florida.

Texas A&M was supposed to be the “big” addition to the league in 2012.  But Missouri has easily outclassed A&M the past three seasons.  Since joining the league, the Aggies are 13-11 in conference play.  The Mizzu Tigers are a 16-12 in conference which includes two trips to the SEC title game.  A&M will have a new starter at QB as Kenny Hill was eventually benched last season and transferred.  The defense will be better with John Chavis taking over.  But there is a question of whether his defense will be as efficient with A&M’s up tempo style on offense.  A&M has road games at LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss and home dates with Alabama and Auburn.

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Auburn
4. Ole Miss
5. Arkansas
6. Texas A&M
7. Miss. State

2015 SEC Preview

I literally copied this from last year’s preseason post.  Again there is a big turnover at the QB position in the SEC this season with Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Ole Miss all losing their starters from 2014.  Add that to the questions about LSU and Vandy and you have quite a few unknowns going into 2015.

A few thoughts:

* Here is a breakdown of the 28 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	10	7-3
Junior	11	6-5
Sophomore	7	1-6
Freshman	0	0-0

* I beat this dead horse every year, but the odds are heavily stacked against teams with underclass QB’s.  To put this in perspective, while Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel both won Heisman Trophies as underclassmen, neither won the division in those Heisman seasons.

* While the consensus seems to be that Alabama and Georgia will meet in Atlanta for the SEC Title, I'm going to go in a little bit different direction.  From the East, I'm picking Tennessee to make it back to the SEC Championship game for the first time since 2007.  The Vols have recruited very well and live in the much less fearsome SEC East.  I also like Alabama to win the West.  The Tide are again loaded and there are just too many questions from the other contenders.

* Alabama will win the SEC and make it to the CFP only to again lose in the semi-finals to...Ohio State.