Bottoming Out

bottom out

 /ˈbɑt̬·əˈmɑʊt/

verb — phrasal verb with bottom

› to reach the lowest point in a changing situation, before any improvement begins

 

 

I think that term is apt, not just for this season but for the Les Miles tenure at LSU.  Gaining the fewest yards since a 1975 game against Texas A&M, the LSU offense defined futility.  In reality we should not be surprised by this outcome, a tough loss to Alabama, an offense regressing each week and a hungry opponent all spelled doom for the Tigers.

While I hate to read too much into one game, this weekend was a microcosm of the biggest failure of the Mile era, the inability to develop QB’s and put out a creative offensive game plan.  I’m not going to rehash the failures of Mr. Miles in respect to the QB’s, but you can read my in depth break down from a few weeks ago.

I’m not even going to delve into the gory details of the game.  The defense played well enough to win, the offense was an absolute joke…again. 

So the question is, what’s next?

Unfortunately, I fear, more of the same.  There is no savior at QB on the horizon and even if there was, I don’t trust Miles to actually “turn over” the offense to his offensive coordinator like he has done on the defensive side of the ball. 

My thoughts going forward are this:

1.      Miles is NOT going anywhere for the foreseeable future.  Unless he somehow ends up at Michigan, he will be LSU’s coach until he retires or gets fired.  I do not think he deserves to be fired, but I also have little faith he will lead LSU to any more titles of any kind.

2.      What would it take for the administration to move on him?  Probably three consecutive 7-6 seasons or two consecutive losing seasons.  Mack Brown and Will Muschamp may give us a window into what could force a change.  Brown was 30-21 over his last four seasons, 18-17 in the Big XII.  Muschamp was 27-20 overall and 17-15 in the SEC in his tenure at Florida.

3.      Miles has gone 8-0, 6-2, 5-3 and 3-4 in the SEC the last four seasons.  There has been a clear downward trend in LSU’s conference performance.  A loss versus A&M would leave the Tigers 14-10 in the SEC over the last three years, a 58% winning percentage. Another 3-5 SEC record in 2015 would leave Miles at 17-15 over four seasons, exactly where Muschamp finished when he was shown the door at Florida.

4.      Miles has a much better resume than Muschamp and thus will have the 2015 and 2016 seasons to get LSU back to the type of success he has had earlier in his tenure.  But he is going to have to solve the QB situation and get the offense moving.

As much as this feels like the bottom, it could get worse.  But it could also get better with so many young players returning next season.  It is difficult to reconcile the games we have seen this season occurring with the same team.  LSU was gritty enough to beat Wisconsin, Florida and Ole Miss while pushing Alabama to the absolute limit.  But this is the same group of players that got blown out by Auburn, dominated by Miss. State and embarrassed by Arkansas.

My personal feeling is that Miles has gotten stale and LSU could do with a change.  I think there are talented coaches out there that could jump start the program and get the Tigers trending in the right direction.  Should Miles be fired? Absolutely not.  But having said that, I personally don’t have much, if any, faith in him bringing LSU the glory he has in the past.  The worst thing you can do to a fan is take away hope, and that’s what Mr. Miles is doing to my fandom.

 

Final Four: Week 11

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Alabama v. (4) Ohio State

(2)   FSU v. (3) Oregon

National Championship
FSU v. Ohio State

Alabama Owns LSU

While walking back to my car after the game I was literally ready to quit LSU football.  I asked myself, why am I dumping so much time, energy and emotion into an activity that so frequently sucks the life out of me.  I’m putting all this effort into a hobby with a coach that I don’t believe in leading a bunch of college kids playing a game.  Maybe Alabama brings out the worst me.  Just this past Friday I told myself I was beyond the old cliché, “losing hurts more than winning feels good.”  Nope, it is now Monday and I am still deeply bothered by this one.

A few thoughts:

1. The defense was lights out.  Sure I was frustrated by the game tying FG with :03 seconds left, but giving up only 13 points in regulation to a team that was averaging 36.5 points per game was a winning effort.  Simms and Co. deserve some credit for executing when everything was on the line.
2. Jennings was extremely poor...again.  Sure there were drops, but he finished 8 of 26 for 76 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. (QB rating of 60.32)   His per attempt average was 2.9 yards for the game.  Harris needs to come off the bench this week and get some meaningful snaps.  The season is “essentially done,” the coaches have three games to see what Harris can do in some limited spots.
3. I’m not going to dwell on it, but the refs did us no favors.  The unsportsmanlike call on Alexander was questionable, but why are you putting yourself in that situation?  You have the game on the line and you lose your composure at the worst possible moment?  Why are you giving the refs an opportunity to affect the game?  That’s why you have lost 4 in a row to Alabama.  Remember 2012? A second quarter run by Jeremy Hill gets LSU to the Alabama 13.  JC Copeland gets called for unnecessary roughness and moves the ball back to the 28.  LSU ends up trying a fake FG and getting nothing on the drive.  That’s not winning football.
4. Kickoffs were terrible all night culminating in the final kickoff going out of bounds.  Again, that's not winning football.
5. What’s most frustrating is that the game played out in LSU’s favor and the Tigers STILL couldn’t close the deal.  It’s painful to say, but Saban and Alabama own Miles and LSU.  More deeply troubling is this simple truth.  If a recruit with no particular allegiance to LSU or Alabama narrows down his choice between the schools, why would he choose the Tigers?  It’s clear championships are NOT coming to Baton Rouge any time soon.  The coaches aren’t good enough and the QB situation has never been solved.  Is LSU a college football program or an NFL prep school?

Hopefully the Tigers can bounce back this weekend on the road in Fayetteville.  Arkansas is 4-5 and still in bowl contention.  Miles is 25-1 after a loss, the only blemish a two game losing streak to end the 2008 regular season.  Defensively, the Hogs are giving up 438 yards and 31 points a game in 5 SEC contests. Offensively, Arkansas is averaging about 43 yards more a game than the Tigers in conference play.  LSU is 6-5 at Arkansas since the beginning of divisional play in 1992.  Expect another close game Saturday.  LSU’s defense should contain Arkansas, but LSU’s anemic passing attack will keep the Tigers from pulling away.  Vegas has LSU a 2.5 point underdog.  Does the smart money know something?

LSU 24 – Hogs 20

 

 

Final Four: Week 11

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) TCU
(2)   Alabama v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Alabama

Bama...Bama...Bama won't you bite my....

Since Saban’s arrival in 2000, Alabama has been the signature game on the Tiger’s schedule.  Of course this was always a big game for LSU fans going back to the 60’s, but LSU just wasn’t on par with many of Bear Bryant’s teams. From 1964 to 1981, LSU was 2-16 against the Tide.  Things improved a bit upon Bryant’s retirement in 1982, as LSU went 6-11-1 in the next 18 games.  Better, but clearly Alabama held the upper hand.

But in 2000, Alabama travelled to Baton Rouge for a wild 30-28 LSU victory, the first in Tiger Stadium versus the Tide since 1969.  LSU is 9-6 in the last 15 match-ups which include 3 OT games, a #1 vs. #2 Game of the Century and a BCS National Title Game.  Since 2003, the two teams have won 5 SEC Titles and 5 National Titles.

 And oh yea, there is that little thing about Saban becoming Alabama’s coach in 2007 after a failed stint in the NFL.

The teams meet this Saturday for what shapes up to be another physical battle with SEC and National Playoff implications on the line.  A few things to look for:

1. Can LSU continue its recent success running the ball?  The Tigers have averaged 254 yards per game on the ground the last three games.  UF, UK and UM are ranked 22^nd, 94^th and 33^rd respectively in national rushing defense.  Alabama is ranked 2^nd nationally only giving up 78 yards per game. This will be the most potent running game Alabama has faced up until this point in the season.  In 5 SEC games, the Tigers are averaging 45 rushes per game.  Tide opponents are only attempting 33 rushes per game in their 5 SEC games.  LSU wore down Ole Miss in the 4^th quarter. Can they do the same Saturday?
2. How does LSU handle Amari Cooper?  Cooper is second in the nation averaging 141 yards receiving per game. He is a game changer and the Tigers will have to account for him every play.  LSU is only giving up 158 yards per game through the air. (4^th nationally)
3. Can Blake Simms deal with the hostile environment better than Bo Wallace?  Wallace wilted under the constant noise and heckling of LSU fans.  It was reported he even jawed with LSU fans behind the Ole Miss bench in between series. I expect LSU fans to give Simms the same treatment if not worse.  How will he handle the pressure?

Against Ole Miss, LSU was able to get away with 4 turnovers, multiple dropped interceptions, multiple penalties, a missed FG and nothing in the punt return game.  Those things need to get cleaned up if the Tigers are to win.  This game reminds me of 2010 on a number of levels, a 7-1 Bama team coming in with title hopes still very much alive and a supportive media declaring them the best of the one loss teams.  LSU won and went on to finish 11-2 and set the stage for the 2011 season.

I expect a relatively low scoring game without much offensive flash.  I expect Alabama to mirror LSU and run the ball and try to hit some passes to Cooper.  I want to take the Tigers but I just fear LSU will not be able to “hide” Jennings in this game.  In the last 3 games he has attempted a total of 51 passes, 17 per game.  He is going to have to make a few plays and I just don’t trust him to come through.  Les has lost three in a row to Saban, on Saturday, make it four.  Let's hope I am wrong.

LSU 17 – Alabama 21

 

Final Four: Week 10

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Alabama v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Oregon

I moved Mississippi State out as they seemed to have peaked and they must play Alabama on the road. If the Tide get past LSU, the schedule really shapes up for them to finish 12-1 as SEC Champs.  I think the Big 12 ends up with a 10-2 champion which will leave the door open for the 12-1 Spartans.  I also like Oregon's chances to win out and finish as a 12-1 Pac-12 champ.