The Magnolia Bowl

I love the smell of corn dogs on a Saturday Night.  Smells like...VICTORY!!

LSU won an old school slugfest Saturday night rushing for over 250 yards against the vaunted “Land Shark” defense of Ole Miss.  Leonard Fournette went off for 211 all-purpose yards while LSU’s defense held UM to 313 yards of offense and only 7 points.  Plus there were some awesome signs on campus for college game day. (CLICK HERE)

A few observations:

Offense

1. LSU’s running game was impressive.  Ole Miss has been very stout against the run but LSU ran 55 times for 4.8 yards a carry. Obviously the offensive line is gelling.
2. Jennings is still limited but he had some really nice throws.  The pass down the middle to Fournette was perfect and the play action TD pass to Stokes were huge plays which Jennings executed.  He is at his best rolling out; let’s see if that enters the game plan more.
3. I thought the play calling was great, especially in the first half.  The Tigers mixed it up a little and had a great deal of success.  If not for the turnovers, LSU would have been up by 10 early on the Rebels.

Defense

1. LSU’s front 7 is so much better than they were in week 1.  Over the last 3 weeks, LSU has given up only an average of 110 yards rushing per game and 3.5 yards per carry.
2. Too many dropped interceptions.  Opportunities like that must be pounced upon.
3. The Tigers were able to get pressure on Wallace and make him uncomfortable. His QB rating of 91 for the game is 60 points lower than his average for the season.

LSU made enough mistakes, four turnovers, 5 penalties and a few dropped INT’s to hand the game to Ole Miss.  But the defense kept repeatedly bailing out the Tigers, at one point forcing four consecutive 3 and outs in the second half.

It’s clear that after a shaky start, this team is improving every week.  That’s a sign of good coaching and the player’s buying into LSU’s system.

On November 8, Alabama rolls into town.  The Crimson Tide will be the favorites with a potential SEC West Title and College Playoff berth on the line.  LSU will still mathematically be in the mix for the West.  The season already has a new look with the victory over Ole Miss.  How much better would it be with a win over hated Alabama?

 

Final Four: Week 9

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Mississippi State v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Mississippi State

The first rankings come out today and like everyone else I am very curious to see what the selection committee has in store.  I’ve noticed a number of talking heads have predicted that Alabama will be in the top four.  I don’t see it.  They have a quality win against West Virginia, but not much else.  Texas A&M is train wreck and the Tide lost their toughest game all season, the visit to Oxford back on October 4.  At this point, how can you put Bama in over Ole Miss given the head to head results?  Auburn has done more as well, bombing LSU and winning at K-State.  Notre Dame is in the mix, but their best win was at home by 3 over 5-3 Stanford.  This first set of rankings will have everyone buzzing, but there is a TON of football left.  Let’s enjoy trip rather than obsess over the destination.

Bowl Bound

It’s hard to believe that only a few weeks ago there was some concern about LSU reaching bowl eligibility.  After the 41-7 blowout at Auburn, the Tigers looked in desperate trouble.  But two weeks later the Tigers are 6-2 and guaranteed a 15^th consecutive bowl appearance.

The Tigers dominated Kentucky in all phase of the game Saturday night playing its most complete game of the season.  A few observations:

* Easily the best game of the season for special teams. Tre’Davious White had 114 yards on four punt returns with a 67 yard return for a TD.

* The running game pounded out 303 yards with Magee leading the way with 127 yards and 2 TD’s.  Great to see #18 have such a solid game.

* The defense was stout holding UK to 217 yards on 63 plays and giving up only 3 points.  The Tigers are ranked 9^th in the SEC in total defense counting only conference games.  Before the Florida game, LSU was ranked dead last in the conference.

* Jennings managed the game, but I’m not seeing much growth in his game.  I think he is limited in what he can do for the Tigers.  But he has to be the #1 guy right now.  He seems more comfortable on roll outs and getting out of the pocket.  The coaches need to give him a few more first down play action opportunities to continue to build his confidence.  He currently ranks 62^nd nationally in QB efficiency and ranks outside the top 100 in completion percentage.

* I know fans get frustrated with LSU’s offensive game plan, but the coaching staff has to work around the limitations at the QB position.  Anthony Jennings throwing 30 times a contest isn’t going to win games for the Tigers right now.

* Not a stellar night for Leonard Fournette, but he is on pace to gain 1600+ all-purpose yards on the season, the most by a freshman in LSU history.

* LSU’s line backing corps has really improved as the season has gone along.  Kwon Alexander and Kendall Beckwith are starting to make some plays.

Looking Ahead

Huge game this weekend against #3 Ole Miss.  The Rebels come in 7-0 and both teams are ranked while playing in Tiger Stadium for the first time since 1970.  The Tigers have won 5 of the last 6 in the series played in Tiger Stadium.  What to look for:

1. Can LSU get out the gates quickly?  Against Boise State, Memphis, Alabama and Tennessee, Ole Miss only scored a combined 31 points in the first half.  That’s less than 8 points per game for those four games.  In those same games, the Rebels put up 85 points in the second half, over 21 points per game.  It will be key for LSU to be productive in the first half and try to have a lead at half time. Les Miles is 79-7 when leading at the half.
2. Can LSU run the ball against the #6 run defense in the country?  Ole Miss is giving up only 2.87 yards a carry this season.  LSU will need to run some option and spread formations to give the running game a chance.
3. How will Bo Wallace handle the largest crowd in the history of Tiger Stadium?  If the game stays close, like I expect it to, the atmosphere will electric all night.

As much as I would love to see a magical night in Tiger Stadium, I just don’t see the Tigers with enough offensive firepower to win the game.  Ole Miss’ defense is national championship caliber and I don’t think Jennings is up to the task.  I expect a great effort, but Ole Miss has a special team this season.

Rebels 24 – LSU 13

 

Final Four: Week 8

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Mississippi State v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Mississippi State

100 and Counting

Leonard Fournette spinning and winning for the Tigers.

 How fitting that Les Miles’ 100^th victory at LSU was…well…classic Les Miles.  The Tigers ran for 195 yards led by Leonard Fournette’s 140 yards and two TD’s.  LSU forced 3 Florida turnovers and didn’t turn it over themselves once.  The passing game was fairly anemic but Jennings made a few critical plays to keep drives going.  Finally, just when it looked like the Tigers had grabbed the game, they give up a 73 yard pass play to Demarcus Robinson.  But the defense stiffens, Florida drops a sure TD pass and the game is tied 27 all.  Then to compound matters, LSU goes three and out and punts to UF with a minute left.  The Gators seem on the verge of winning the game, but Magic Miles pulls a purple Leprechaun from his arse and LSU picks off Driskel leading to Colby Delahoussaye’s 50 yard game winning FG.

Yea, classic Miles.

I made the trip to Gainesville and it will not be a trip I soon forget.  The atmosphere was fantastic and the game was a thriller.  I’ve been reading write ups from the game and the general sentiment is that this was a weird/sloppy/frustrating contest.  Maybe being in the belly of the beast and coming out victorious is slanting my view, but I think this was a great win for THIS TEAM. 

Viewed through the prism of the 2014 Tigers, I saw improvement and execution.  I saw a young team that was destroyed last week execute in a VERY hostile environment this week.  I saw Leonard Fournette show why he was the #1 guy in the 2014 class.  I saw Anthony Jennings play within himself and give his team a chance to win.  I saw guys balling and leaving it out on the field when they could have folded a number of times.  I just don't think fan appreciate how tough it is for young players to go into a place like the Swamp and have success.

Yes, this team is flawed.  Sure, there is plenty of room for improvement.  Special teams punt coverage was a disaster.  8 penalties for 80 yards is unacceptable.  Jennings is still inaccurate.  Mistakes, both mental and physical were made.  But a win like this is great for this team and LSU’s program.  LSU is not winning the division, but there is plenty to play for.

A few other observations:

* Despite his struggles, Jennings QB rating is higher than Mettenberger’s 2012 season and Jefferson’s 2008 and 2010 seasons.

* It’s been a LONG time since I have watched an LSU game so close to the field (row 6).  The LSU players certainly look the part.  Beastly.

* I heard some horror stories about traveling to Gainesville, but we had a blast.  The fans were nice and nothing nasty was directed our way.  Great trip, great game.

Looking ahead:

Kentucky is 5-1 and an overtime loss away from 6-0.  All five of UK’s wins were at home, the loss was at Florida.  The Wildcats have only played one game against a team with a winning record (UF).   Things to watch for:

1. Red Zone Conversions: LSU is scoring TD’s on 77% of the trips into the red zone which places the Tigers 7^th in the nation.  UK is only converting at a 55% clip.
2. Can Fournette continue to improve?  The freshman is on pace to run for 930 yards and 11 TD’s.
3. UK runs a spread passing offense.  Will the front four be able to generate a pass rush to help LSU’s secondary?

LSU 30 - UK 20 

Final Four: Week 7

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Mississippi State v. (3) Oklahoma

National Championship

FSU v. Mississippi State

A View from the Bottom

Nick Marshall runs around hapless
 LSU defenders for a touchdown.

The last LSU coach to lose 41-7 to Auburn got his walking papers at the end of that season. I’m not saying Miles will or should be fired, but that game was a wakeup call to all of the problems with this team and the program in general.

* LSU is again lost at the QB position. This is Les Miles’ 10^th year at LSU and he has yet to figure out how to handle the QB’s, be it recruiting, playing time or development.  Look at the list of failures with one lone bright spot:

2005 class: Ryan Perrilloux.  Won 2007 SEC Title game for LSU.  Booted before 2008 season. Career Stats: 79 pass attempts, 55 rushes, 927 total yards, 10 TD’s.

2006 class: DID NOT SIGN A QB

2007 class: Jarrett Lee. Stayed at LSU for 5 years.  Led the SEC in QB efficiency in 2011 when he was benched for Jordan Jefferson. Career Stats: Appeared in 43 games.  Threw for 3,949 yards and 32 TD’s.

2008 class: Jordan Jefferson.  Don’t get me started.

2009 class: Chris Garrett. Never played a down for LSU.  Left after 1 year.  Russell Sheppard.  Never was going to play QB for LSU.  Undistinguished career.

2010 class: Zach Lee. Never played a down for LSU.  Signed baseball contract.

2011 class: Zach Mettenberger. Threw for 5,783 yards (No. 6 in LSU history) and 35 TDs (No. 5 in LSU history).  Led one of the most proficient offenses in school history in 2013 as the Tigers racked up 465 points (No. 4 in LSU history) and 5,893 total yards (No. 2 in LSU history) Stephen Rivers.  Transferred to Vandy in 2014.  2 career passes at LSU, both incomplete. Jerrard Randall.  Stayed at LSU and left after 2 seasons.  Never saw field.

2012 class: Jeremy Liggins. Never stepped foot on campus.  Currently plays for Ole Miss.

2013 class: Anthony Jennings. Currently embroiled in latest LSU QB merry-go-round.  Hayden Rettig. Transferred to Rutgers after one season.

2014 class: Brandon Harris. See Jennings status above.

* In four of those seasons 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2012 Miles didn’t sign a QB or essentially signed no one at the position.

* Mettenberger was the crowning achievement of Miles’ tenure in respect to the QB position, big, tall, pocket passer with the ability to deliver all over the field.  Z Mett is a prototypical NFL style pocket passer.  Yet here we are stuck with two “duel threat” QB’s in Jennings and Harris trying to run a pro-style offense.  Miles has obviously learned nothing. 

* Harris crapped the bed in Jordan Hare.  His throws were wild and he bailed out of the pocket too soon on multiple plays.  In retrospect, it probably would have been better to let Jennings start and bring Harris off the bench.  It seemed clear to me that he was overwhelmed by the game and the atmosphere.  There were plays to be made, but the moment was too big for him.

* The defensive talent drain is really showing.  The Tigers have no pass rush and it just makes everyone else look worse.  Then when players are in position, they are whiffing or missing tackles.  Here’s an ugly stat, LSU is giving up 7.73 yards per play in conference games (13^th in SEC).  I understand players wanting to get to the NFL, but why such a drain here?  Is Miles building a college football program, or an NFL minor league factory?

* The run was working on first down, but second and third down was a nightmare.  After leading the nation in third down conversions last year, the Tigers went 0 for 13 Saturday night.  Matter of fact, LSU is 2 for 26 in third down conversions in two SEC games.  That’s 7.69%.  Ouch.

LSU travels to Gainesville this weekend to take on the less than mighty Gators.  Florida’s offense is even worse than the Tigers, but the defense is still pretty nasty.  UF’s QB situation is about as settled as LSU’s.  This game will be a mess.  Expect lots of punts and a few field goals.  I will be traveling to the game, so pray for my safety.  On a positive note, Chase McCalip and I are 3-0 in road trips going back to 2000.  We will try and keep the streak alive.

LSU 12 – Gators 10

 

Final Four: Week 6

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Auburn v. (3) Oklahoma

National Championship

FSU v. Auburn