A Star is Born?

Now that is a Heisman pose!

“Brutal” is about the only thing I can say about Anthony Jennings’ performance against New Mexico State.  The few folks that showed up saw LSU’s starting quarterback implode before their eyes.  Jennings finished with a -21.52 passer rating.  I didn’t know you could have a negative passer rating.  This wasn’t against the Steel Curtain, Alabama’s 2011 defense or the Monsters of the Midway.  This was against the Aggies of New Mexico State.  After turning the ball over three times, Miles mercifully pulled Jennings and inserted Harris who proceeded to lead LSU on 7 straight TD drives.

I didn’t like the fans booing Jennings.  He played poorly, but from everything that I have seen, he’s a team player and has done nothing wrong off the field.  I understood fan’s frustrations, but booing Jennings as he left the field was uncalled for.  But hey, you pay your money, it’s a free country, you can “boo” all you want.   (*As a side note, I loudly booed Jordan Jefferson and Les Miles as Jefferson entered the 2011 UK game.  Call me a hypocrite, but I felt the situations were very different.)

Given the competition, I’m not ready to say Harris is going to be a great player; but I’m confident in saying Jennings will not.  Thus far this season, Harris is 22 of 30 for 394 yards and 6 TD’s/1 INT.  His QB rating is absurd. 

But how will he perform in one of the toughest venues in the country at Jordan-Hare Stadium?  Auburn is just as difficult a place to play as LSU.  The biggest challenge Harris will face will be controlling his emotions.  He will have to play very well for LSU to win as I expect Auburn to score…a lot. 

 LSU has been soft up the middle and unless the DT’s can slow down the running game, it will be a long night for the Bengal Tigers.  In the two games versus Arkansas and K-State, Auburn averaged 215 yards on the ground gaining 4.62 yards per carry. Marshall is probably an even better runner than MSU’s Prescott who torched LSU for 105 yards on the ground.

Three Things to Look For:

1. Can LSU stop the inside run game of Auburn?
2. Can LSU play mistake free football? (No turnovers, minimal penalties, no mental mistakes)
3. How does Harris handle the pressure?

I think LSU will play well Saturday but it won’t be enough.  The Bengal Tigers will be in the game throughout, but Auburn’s running game will take over late as LSU and Harris wilt under the pressure.

Auburn 35- LSU 21  

 

Final Four: Week 4

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Oklahoma v. (4) FSU
(2)   Oregon v. (3) Alabama

National Championship

Oklahoma v. Alabama

Role Reversal

For the last 14 years, LSU has dominated the series with MSU going 14-0 with large victory margins.  That all ended Saturday night as the Bulldogs dominated LSU along the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  MSU gained 570 yards total and 302 on the ground alone.  The final score was misleading, this was as thorough a beating as LSU has experienced in the Miles era.

A few observations:

* LSU’s offensive and defense lines are a far cry from the units we have seen in the past.  LSU got very little pressure with the front four on defense and MSU ran the ball up the middle at will.  The offensive line doesn’t open many holes and was spotty in pass protection.  LSU has first and goal from the 2 yard line early on and ended up getting stuffed on 4 consecutive running plays setting the tone for the rest of the night.

* The play calling on the offensive side of the ball was poor.  Repeated runs out of the I-formation into 8 and 9 man fronts failed all night.  In an age of spread offenses and offensive ingenuity, Miles wants to play football in a phone booth.  Well let me tell you something coach, you don’t have the talent on the offensive line to play that way.  In the post game interview, Miles admitted that MSU “spread us out which opened up some running lanes.”  Gee coach, what a novel idea!

* Digging deeper, with so many LSU players in the NFL, only two offensive linemen recruited by Miles are currently on an NFL roster, Joseph Barksdale and Trai Turner.  Draw your own conclusions.

* Ronald Martin is having a rough year.  He was at fault on multiple big plays and struggles making open field tackles.  If I’m an opposing OC, I’m trying to target Martin at every opportunity.

* All the early departures are catching up with LSU on defense.  I don’t think MSU runs for 302 yards if Ego Ferguson and Anthony Johnson are plugging the middle of LSU’s defense.

* Anthony Jennings can do some nice things but I really question his ability to go to a second or third receiver.  He repeatedly throws deep when a shorter route is open.  It’s no mystery why his completion percentage is so low.  He must learn to check down and be patient with what the defense is giving him.  He has dipped down to 9^th in the league in QB rating and his 51% completion rating is by far the worst in the league.  Matter of fact it is 108^th in the nation.  I’m not ready to give up on Jennings as he throws a great deep ball and doesn’t make mistakes.  But he must improve for LSU to have any success.

* Having said all that, the QB race may still be on as Brandon Harris came in and played well in garbage time.  Harris finished 6 of 9 for 140 yards and 2 TD’s in about 4 minutes of action.  But with the game so far out of hand, I’m reluctant to put too much stock in the late game comeback.

I always hate to put too much stock in one game, but it’s hard not to be extremely concerned about LSU’s prospects going forward this season and the state of the program.  Let this sink in, Mississippi State has better players than LSU right now.  The Tigers were outplayed and outcoached all night.  Maybe this is a special Mississippi State team. Maybe at the end of the season we will look back at this game and appreciate just how good State is.  But right now, all we have are tons of questions on both sides of the ball and no obvious answers.

It’s hard to say where LSU goes from here.  The Tigers may only be favored in 2 or 3 games the rest of the way. Is a 7-5 or heaven forbid 6-6 season in the making?  Preseason I figured LSU was in for a 9-3 season.  I just don't see that happening at this point.  Based on what I have seen through four games, LSU is in for a 6-6 season.  Could they get things turned around? Sure, but Miles is going to have to open up the offense, because Chavis is not going to be able to carry him this year.

Before the season I made the prediction that Brady Hoke would get fired from Michigan and the Wolverines would make another run at Les Miles.  Well, Hoke just lost in dismal fashion at home to Utah to stand at 2-2 on the season.  Michigan has upcoming games against Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State which they will all be underdogs.  I’m sticking by my prediction even more firmly now.  If LSU belly flops, will Miles decide that time is right to move on?

Get ready for a long season Tiger fans...and be sure to stock up on your favorite alcoholic beverage.

Final Four: Week 4

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.  Each week may see significant changes, but that’s the nature of the game we love.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Oklahoma v. (4) Alabama
(2)   Oregon v. (3) FSU

National Championship

Alabama v. Oregon

Home Opener

Not a lot to talk about this week.  Jennings looked great, Fournette showed some ability and the defense threw a shutout for the first time since 2010.  The Tigers did what you expect versus an outmatched opponent, get up early and stay focused. 

The Fournette Heisman pose is no big deal.  He’s a young guy with a ton of expectations and pressure on him.  I’m sure he was very excited to score his first TD so I can excuse him for a little youthful exuberance.  He gets a complete pass in my book.  Having said that, if he scores the game winning TD versus Alabama, he can do any pose he wants.

Maybe I’m just getting old, but the music in the stadium was too loud.  More LSU band, less piped in music.

 A few numbers for you:

 * Anthony Jennings leads the league in QB rating and is fifth nationally.  He is #1 in the country in yards per attempt at 12.6.

* Travin Dural is averaging an insane 48.5 yards per catch with 4 TD’s this season.  For his career, Dural has 13 catches and 6 TD’s averaging 34.3 yards per catch.

* LSU is also #1 in the nation in pass efficiency defense. The Tigers are #2 in the SEC in total defense and #1 in sacks.

Let’s hope for continued attention to detail this week. 

Three things to look for Saturday:

1. Still need to get Jennings completion numbers up.
2. Develop the short and intermediate passing game.
3. Quality reps for defensive backups.

LSU 45 – ULM 3

 

 

 

Final Four: Week 2

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.  Each week may see significant changes, but that’s the nature of the game we love.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Florida State v. (4) Auburn
(2)   Oklahoma v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Oregon

Survive and Advance

I can’t say I was totally surprised the way the game played out, frustrated yes, surprised, no.  LSU is now 22-21 when trailing in the fourth quarter under Miles.  This is an amazing record.  But as Joey Galloway on ESPN said, “that’s not really a list you want to be on.”

You don’t want to be on that list because it means you’ve been outplayed for the first three quarters of the game.  This is a bit of a trend with Miles.  He has coached 120 games with the Tigers.  In 36% of those games he has entered the fourth quarter trailing.  So often we see the Tigers play it close to the vest in the first half and pull away in the second.  It has worked for LSU as evidenced by Miles 80% winning percentage.  But it makes the fans crazy and invites much of the criticism he receives. It wouldn’t hurt to come out and railroad some teams early.

Thoughts on the game:

* In some ways the game reminded me of Miles’ debut back in 2005.  LSU played poorly for a good chunk of the game then had a 28 point explosion in the fourth quarter to beat Arizona State in a wild finish.  Saw much of the same here.

* I was very pleased with Jennings, partly because of his performance and partly because my expectations were so low after the bowl game.  He didn’t turn the ball over, he made plays down field and he didn’t do anything to kill the Tigers.  He does need to work on his screen passes and getting a better rapport with the receivers, but I think the future is bright for him.  To appreciate how effective Jennings was, he is ranked 6^th in the SEC and 23^rd nationally in passing efficiency.  He’s even ahead of Texas A&M’s Kenny Hill.

* In my mind, the QB derby is essentially over. Even though I think Jennings took a huge leap in the QB competition, Harris will continue to play throughout the season.

* The coaching staff needs to help Jennings out as well.  Jennings was 5 of 8 for 157 and a TD on first down.  Compare that with 2 of 9 for 48 yards and a TD on third down.  Part of the problem was LSU’s inability to run the ball, but LSU’s play calling can be predictable. 

* Great to see Kenny Hilliard back in form.  This could be a really big year for him.

* Leonard Fournette is a freshman running back with great potential.  Fans want to hail these guys as the next great player before they take a college snap and are disappointed when they fail to meet these unfair expectations.  Give him time; he will be a very productive player at LSU.

* This receiving corps will be very good by years end. Dural, Quinn and Diarse looked sharp Saturday.

* The offensive line was underwhelming in the first half.  Only as the game wore on and two Badger linemen went down did things improve.  This group will have better days.  2.7 yards a carry is not going to get it done.

* The defense had all sorts of trouble in the first half but seemed to figure things out in the second.  The Tigers did force Wisconsin into seven three and outs and held the Badgers to 32 yards on their final five possessions of the game.

* The secondary looks to be in midseason form as McEvoy was held to 50 yards passing while Mills and Martin both had interceptions.

* With the exception of Jamie Keehn’s shanks, special teams were very good.  Cameron Gamble looked phenomenal on kickoffs.

Looking Ahead

No one will get the big head after LSU’s squeaker over Wisconsin.  Expect better execution this week.  LSU obviously outmatches Sam Houston State, so the key is for the players to focus on the mental side of the game.  Attention to detail and execution is what the coaches will be looking for because the outcome is not in doubt.

Three things I would like to see versus Sam Houston State:

1. Get Fournette some holes to run through.
2. Jennings up his completion percentage.
3. Generate an interior pass rush on defense.

LSU 42 – SMS 10