For the Gamblers

The season is still over a month away but that doesn't mean that we can't enjoy "talking season."

Some early spreads on LSU out of Vegas:

LSU -7 over Wisconsin:  Sounds about right.  This will be a close game at a neutral site but LSU should be able to win with great defense and a solid running game.

LSU -12 over Miss. State:  The last 7 games between the teams in Tiger Stadium have ended with an average final score of 39-17.  I will let you figure out the rest.

LSU +6.5 at Auburn:  Will be very tough game for LSU to win.  By the time of the game, Auburn should be on a 12 game home winning streak.  While LSU is 6-1 versus Auburn since 2007, the Baton Rouge Tigers are only 4-7 at Auburn since the inception of divisional play.

LSU -9 at Florida:  Of all the spreads, this one really caught my eye.  Obviously the odds makers don't think much of Florida this year.  I would be very curious to see the last time LSU was favored like this in Gainesville...if ever.

LSU -7.5 over Ole Miss:  This game has been VERY close in the Miles era.

LSU +2.5 vs. Alabama: Looks like the experts in Vegas think more of LSU than I do.  A lot will change before this game, but the Tigers are getting serious respect here.

LSU -14 at Arkansas: Possible trap game? Naaa.

LSU -5 at Texas A&M: Bring out the Turkeys.  Has LSU ever played on Thanksgiving Day?

Despite the fact that Miss. State, Ole Miss and A&M are all trendier picks than LSU, the Tigers are favored in all three games.  From 2011-2013, LSU was favored 34 times, the Tigers won 31 of those games.

National Predictions and Other Foolishness

Conference Champs

ACC:               Florida State

BIG 10:           Ohio State
Big XII:          Oklahoma
Pac-12:            UCLA
SEC:                South Carolina

Four Team Playoff: South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida State, UCLA

National Champ: Oklahoma

In case you are curious, Bovada’s Odds on winning it all:

Florida State: 11/2

Alabama: 6/1

Oregon: 8/1

Auburn: 9/1

Ohio State: 10/1

Oklahoma: 12/1

Georgia: 16/1

UCLA: 16/1

LSU: 18/1

Michigan State: 25/1

South Carolina: 25/1

USC: 25/1

Baylor: 28/1

Stanford: 33/1

Wisconsin: 33/1

Florida: 40/1

Mississippi: 40/1

Notre Dame: 40/1

Texas: 40/1

Michigan: 50/1

Nebraska: 50/1

Top 5 Games of 2014

1.   Auburn at Alabama

1a. SEC Title Game

2.   Ohio State at Michigan State

3.   Florida State v. Miami

4.   Oregon at UCLA

5.   Baylor at Oklahoma

5 Teams (other than LSU) I’m Most Curious About

Texas – No Texas players were taken in the NFL draft for the first time in 77 years. WHAT??  That is mind boggling to me.  I think Charlie Strong is a good coach and recruiter.  Look for a big turnaround for the Longhorns…next year.

 

Michigan – Brady Hoke won 11 games his first season in Ann Arbor. Then 8 games in year two and only 7 in year three.  Notice a trend?  Under Hoke, Michigan is only 3-8 versus ranked teams and 6-9 versus ND, MSU, OSU, Iowa and Nebraska. I’m not sure how much goodwill he has left.

 

UCLA – The Bruins look loaded to make a run.  Can Mora get them to elite status?

 

Miami – When will the Canes be good again?  After starting 7-0 last season, Miami stumbled the rest of the way going 2-4 down the stretch.

 

TCU – The transition to the Big XII has been rougher than most expected for the Horned Frogs.  The hope is a new offensive coordinator brings life to an offense that ranked 106^th in the nation last season.

 

Coach Most Likely to Get Fired: Will Muschamp

Bold Prediction I: Despite ESPN’s best efforts to manufacture controversy, the selection committee for the four team playoff will do an excellent job in selecting the participants without needless drama.

Bold Prediction II: Brady Hoke will get fired from Michigan as the Wolverines make another run at Les Miles.  Third time turns out to be the charm and Miles bolts LSU for his alma mater. 

3 Good Reads

1. SEC West holds the upper hand on the East.

Great article on the tilt of power in the SEC the last five years.

2. Stewart Mandel Mailbag

Always on Wednesday.  Always a good read.

3. Don't worry, Harry Reid insists that our southern border is secure.

No matter how many times you say something, it doesn't make it true.

2014 SEC Preview

 

 

Big turnover at the QB position in the SEC this season with Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina all losing their starters from 2013. It will be interesting to see how these teams’ offensive numbers are affected.

A few thoughts:

*          Junior and senior quarterbacks continue to dominate the SEC Title game.  Last year was no exception as Auburn was led by junior QB Nick Marshall while Missouri had senior James Franklin under center. 

*          Here is a breakdown of the 26 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	9	6-3
Junior	11	6-5
Sophomore	6	1-5
Freshman	0	0-0

*          I beat this dead horse every year, but the odds are heavily stacked against teams with underclass QB’s.  To put this in perspective, while Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel both won Heisman Trophies as underclassmen, neither won the division in those Heisman seasons.

*          So it is no surprise that I’m giving the LSU Tigers little or no chance to win the division.  But to show you what I know, I picked Auburn and Missouri to both finish 6^th in their respective divisions last season.  We all know how that worked out.

*          Using these criteria, who has a legit shot to get to Atlanta?

Auburn and Ole Miss will have seniors at the QB position and solid offensive lines.  Auburn returns four starters from an offensive line with a combined 113 starts that led the nation in rushing last season.  Alabama is breaking in some new guys on the line but you know they will be plenty talented.  The Tide will also be breaking in a new junior QB transfer from Florida State, Jacob Coker.  Ole Miss just is not on the same level as others in the division, but they could be a spoiler.

From the East, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia all have senior QB’s.  Florida’s Jeff Driskel returns for his fourth season after receiving a medical redshirt in 2013.  But this may be Steve Spurrier’s best chance to conquer the East.  The Gamecocks get Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri and Tennessee at home while travelling to Auburn and Florida.  USC has loaded up on talent with consistent Top 20 classes since Spurrier’s arrival.  The Gators are a bit of a wildcard this year.  On paper they are one of the most talented teams in the country, but Muschamp is only 22-16 in three seasons.  To highlight just how poor Florida was last season, their three conference wins came over teams with a combined conference record of 2-22.

 

Reading Material

Here are a few interesting links I came across that are worth a read...even if to say how misguided they are.

Athlon's ranking of all 128 college coaches.

No way Miles is 17th.  Sure he has his shortcomings, but a National Title, 2 SEC Titles and 95 wins in 9 seasons deserves more respect thank being ranked lower than Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly.

College Football Playoff for Beginners.

Nice little break down of the new playoff format.

Jeremy Hill's latest tattoo.

Holy Sh*t!!!!

SEC 2014

2014 SEC Predictions

SEC West

1. Alabama

2. Auburn
3. LSU
4. Ole Miss
5. Texas A&M
6. Mississippi State
7. Arkansas

SEC East

1. South Carolina

2. Georgia
3. Missouri
4. Florida
5. Tennessee
6. Vanderbilt
7. Kentucky