Survive and Advance

Before everyone freaks out, let's try and keep this game in perspective. A little history: Auburn's Jordan-Hare Stadium has been a house of horrors over the years. As good as Nick Saban was in his time at LSU, he was 0-3 at Auburn. In LSU's last seven visits, including Saturday’s game, the Tigers are only averaging 13 points per game. 13!! Since divisional play started in 1992, LSU is now 4-7 at Auburn; the average margin of victory in those four wins is 5 points. This was a desperate Auburn team. This is the first time in the history of the program that they have ever lost three games before October 1st. The Tigers are 0-2 in SEC play for the first time since 1980.

Most importantly, LSU won the game. All of the Tigers’ goals are still on the table. Obviously they need to play better with the upcoming trip to Florida on October 6. If LSU can cut out the turnovers and penalties there will be plenty more victories this season.

A few observations:

* Does Mettenberger need to play better? Absolutely, but we must be fair in evaluating his play. He's started a grand total of four games in his career. I've been to Auburn twice; the stadium is as intimidating as any place in the country. He is a true junior and still has much to learn. He is very effective on first down completing 75% of his passes. He is very accurate and poised in the pocket. He needs to work on his field awareness when scrambling as he came up inches short twice versus Auburn. He also needs to improve on throwing on the run and most importantly, ball security. Mettenberger will continue to improve each week; fans just need to have patience.

* LSU's offensive line really struggled at times. Even though the run game ground out 182 yards, poor blocking lead to some minimal gains or Mettenberger being pressured. The sack and fumble in the second quarter was a direct result of poor blocking on the defensive end.

* LSU's defense is suffocating. Auburn was held to 183 yards, its lowest output all season. LSU had 14 tackles for loss. Auburn had only 52 offensive plays, thus over a quarter of those were for negative yards. Auburn was only 2 of 12 on third down conversions. LSU forced Auburn into five three and out possessions. An in game stat showed Auburn averaging 0.9 yards per play on 1st down deep into the fourth quarter. The defense will keep LSU in every game this season.

* The play calling in the second half was very conservative. On 13 first downs, LSU ran 10 times and passed 3. No screens or draws to try and slow down that pass rush.

* This goes to what I have said before about the offense, we do not stretch the field or try and get mismatches. We threw deep twice with only a few intermediate passes in 27 attempts. I’m convinced that LSU is the easiest team in the league to play call against in respect to the offense, very few formations, deep throws or misdirection.

* The "Bad Game Manager Miles" came out late in the game as LSU attempted a FG with about 40 seconds left. Alleman had to rush on the field with only seconds to go, rushed the kick and pushed it wide right. LSU had just called a timeout before 3rd down. The FG unit should have been ready to go on the field immediately after third down, yet they barely got the snap off. You could see Miles just standing on the sidelines and all of the sudden he realizes what's going on and hurries the team out on the field. Inexcusable.

* Penalites! 9 for 80 yards. Lack of poise. I counted at least 3 false starts. Those are killer.

* Kadrone Boone needs to play more. He is LSU's most reliable receiver. Miles insists on playing Sheppard even though he is probably LSU's weakest receiver. Folks want to criticize Mettenberger, but the drops by the receivers are killer in the style of offense we play.

* Fans should probably temper their expectations for this team. The 2011 squad was an all-time great in LSU history. Had they beaten Alabama the second time around we would be talking about one of the greatest teams in the history of college football. Let’s look at what this 2012 team actually is and not what we want it to be. LSU lost one of its best offensive linemen for the season. The QB is talented but inexperienced. The receiving corps is average at best. Special teams and defense are lights out. The Tigers have played as many freshmen as anyone on the country. Miles and his staff do a great job of preparation during the week, but poor game day management will occur again during the season.

Looking Back...Looking Ahead

Definitive: having its fixed and final form; providing a solution or final answer; satisfying all criteria

- Dictionary.com

*Alabama is an excellent football team. But to say that they are definitively the #1 team in the country, as many media folks have done, is off base. I see a great deal of group think in the media’s evaluation of games and teams. Alabama is definitively better than LSU because what? They have beaten 3 teams with a combined record of 5-4? LSU has been just as suffocating on defense and offensively explosive. You may notice that I have Bama #1 in the Super 7. They are defending National Champs and will stay there until someone beats them. But given that LSU would only be a two point underdog should the teams play at a neutral site this weekend, I would hardly call the Tide the definitive best team in the country.

*Did you notice that the 63 points put up by the Tigers were the most in the Miles era? You think it was a coincidence that Alabama won by 52 while LSU won by 49? Expect the shadowboxing to continue all season.

* I am personally glad USC lost so we don’t have to listen to the “suckfest” on ESPN for the next few months. The Trojans are good, but not elite. They rank 95th in the country in rushing. If you cannot run the ball, you will not win the biggest prizes.

*Speaking of USC, Lane Kiffin continues to embarrass himself and his school. His most recent temper tantrum has him walking out of a post practice presser after 30 seconds because a reporter asked about an injured player. Nick Saban and Urban Meyer, with five national titles between them, can act an ass all day and get away with it. A second rate coach with a 27-14 career record, zero conference titles and zero bowl wins should be careful.

*The Big 10 is just awful this year. The best team in the league is on probation and any chance of a National Title contender went out the window with Sparty’s ugly loss to ND. Someone for the Big 10 will play in the Rose Bowl…and get thoroughly beaten by an excellent Pac-12 squad.

This Weekend:

Clemson at Florida State: I had this marked down as one of my biggest five games of the season. Winner has the inside track to the ACC Title game and keeps National Title hopes alive. Put up or shut up for Noles.

Michigan at Notre Dame: The Golden Doomers win this one and they will crack the Super 7. Michigan can erase some of the stigma from the opening game beat down with a win in South Bend.

Kansas State at Oklahoma: This was THE GAME in the Big 12 for a few years in the early ‘00’s. KSU is very good this year, but Oklahoma just doesn’t lose in Norman. Stoops is 77-3 at home since taking over in 1999.

LSU at Auburn: Since the inception of divisional play in 1992, LSU is only 3-7 when playing at Auburn, the wins coming in 1996, 1998 and 2008. The average margin of victory in those three games was 7 points. Since 2000, LSU has managed only 13 points per game on the Plains. Yet, LSU is an 18 point favorite going into Saturday. I think this is one of those games you can throw out the numbers. Miles wants to keep pace with Alabama so I expect his foot to stay on the gas all game.

LSU 38 – Auburn 10

Prowler Poop

* Good for UL-Monroe. In a Milesque display, ULM was 6 for 7 on 4th downs against the Hogs! They get my vote for 3rd best team in the SEC West. The Warhawks travel to Auburn next week. Can they make it two in a row?

* The Big 10 has 5 undefeated teams, Michigan State, Ohio State (probation), Northwestern, Minnesota and Indiana. I think it is safe to say that outside of a long shot MSU, the Big 10 will not have a team in the BCS Title game. Jeez, it’s only September 9th!

* In the pre-season I picked Wisconsin to make it to the BCS Title Game…OOPS!!! The Badgers looked terrible against Oregon State losing 10-7.

* Auburn looked awful versus State on Saturday. At one point I even thought Jordan Jefferson could actually help AU if he was playing for them. (Did I really just type that?!) Looking down the road, there is a legitimate chance the other Tigers finish with a losing record.

* Among the three “biggest” games of the weekend, ND v. MSU, USC v. Stanford and UT v. UF, ESPN Game Day is traveling to Knoxville. This will be the third week in a row that Game Day will cover an SEC game. The USC game will be broadcast on FOX while ND is on ABC. ESPN is broadcasting the Florida game. Given ESPN’s investment in the SEC and reluctance to promote games on rival networks, look for Game Day to rarely stray from the south going forward.

* Air Force was driving on Michigan for the go ahead score late in the game when they were stopped on downs near midfield. Alabama’s “Big” win last week isn’t looking like such a “Big” deal.

* Speaking of Alabama, Nick Saban’s lecture to the media last week was pathetic. No one wants to hear a coach with three national titles and another great team crying about what the media is writing about his team. Just shut up and go bully your players, assistant coaches and the Alabama administration. What a whiny little bitch. Oh, and AJ McCarron has been sacked 8 times this year already. Sam Montgomery and Kiki Mingo are already planning a sack party in the Bama backfield.

Looking to the weekend:

* Florida at Tennessee: For a few years in the late ‘90’s this was THE GAME OF THE YEAR. Dooley and Muschamp will be under the microscope for this one. SEC East elimination game.

* Notre Dame at Michigan State: Sparty is very good at home winning 15 in a row in Spartan Stadium. ND looking for respect while MSU looking to keep dark horse national title campaign on track.

* USC at Stanford: Stanford won last year at USC in triple OT. Expect it to be close throughout. USC needs to win to set up the titanic November matchup with Oregon.

39 in a row...and counting

This may be one of the shortest write-ups on an LSU game I ever do. The Tigers were dominant all night. Take away Beckham’s fumble on the opening kickoff and the Huskies could have been shut out. The offense moved right along putting up 437 yards and 41 points while the defense gave up a measly 183. LSU ran the ball 52 times and passed only 19, exactly as Miles likes it. The Tigers are ranked 5^th nationally in total defense and 8^th in rushing defense and scoring defense. Interestingly enough, LSU is 12^th in passing offense but second in rushing offense in the conference. I would like the Tigers to be more balanced, but as long as we can run as we have, Miles won’t let it happen.

The only real complaint about the performance would be the dropped passes. Beckham had a terrible night Saturday. In addition to the fumble, he dropped three passes that hit him right in the hands. I am sure he will be very focused on next week. The other drops came from Wright and Sheppard.

I think we can say with confidence that the Russell Sheppard experience at LSU has been extremely disappointing. He has more drops this season than catches and really shows no signs of real improvement. In retrospect, it probably would have been to his benefit to redshirt and switch to wide receiver the day he got on campus. Possibly the extra time and focus would have allowed him to develop. Truthfully, he never really fit into LSU’s offensive scheme, he may have been better served going to another school that could better utilize his talents.

The Tigers play Idaho next week in what will be another “scrimmage.” LSU will play sharply for about 20 minutes then look to get out of there. Hopefully Mettenberger can get more work with the wide receivers and the young guys can get valuable experience.

LSU 45 – Idaho 3

Prowler Poop

Just a few thoughts from last week:

* Auburn will probably finish 8-5 again and get trounced by Alabama. I don’t really care for Gene Chizik and I found it interesting that in his 14-0 National Title season his peers declined to vote for him as SEC coach of the year. Mark it down, Auburn will be looking for a new coach December of 2013.

* Up 43-10 over Navy, Notre Dame had the ball at Navy’s 9 yard line at 2nd and 1 with 40 seconds left. Instead of showing some class and taking a knee, Brain Kelly ran it in creating the final score 50-10. I know Brian Kelly and Notre Dame take a lot of criticism and thus want to show the sceptics they are still relevant and it is always nice to beat up on a rival, but there was an opportunity to do a small thing the right way. A BIG thumbs down on anyone that runs it up on a service academy.

* All these games against Division I-AA teams are a joke. The Criminoles are playing TWO games against lower division opponents. If the Noles are in the hunt for the BCS Title game at the end of the season, I hope voters take into account that weak non-conference schedule.

* Penn State might go 2-10 this year. They are 10 point dogs this week and I can only see them favored in two, maybe three games the rest of the way.


Looking ahead:

* Florida at A&M and UGA at Mizzu should be very interesting games. I’m glad the schedule makers left the new guys at home for the openers. I have no idea who wins either of these games, but we should know a lot more about all four teams after Saturday.

* Can Dan Mullen and Mississippi State get another signature win and make this year special. Auburn has barely escaped the Bulldogs the last few seasons winning by 7 last year on the last play of the game and by three in 2010. I personally hope its MSU’s day.

* The rest of the schedule is pretty much crap. Conference games can’t get here soon enough.

Bubble Screen Me To Death

Nothing really unexpected occurred this weekend.  LSU was never in trouble, the team occasionally lost focus and lots of guys played.  After watching the replay I felt even better about how the game played out.  A few observations:

* If you thought after seven seasons that Miles was going to “open up the offense,” you need to stop deluding yourself.   This is who Miles is and this is what he wants LSU to be: run the ball, strong defense, solid special teams, and a conservative passing game.  Miles could have Joe Montana or Drew Brees back there, it doesn’t make a difference.  He’s not going to change his fundamental approach to the game.

* Given the play calling, I thought Zach Mettenberger played well.  He wasn’t really allowed to go downfield that much and the pass protection was questionable at times. Mettenberger completed 73% of his passes and threw one TD.  The interception was the only poor throw of the game.  Some clown on facebook commented that Mettenberger was not impressive at all.  Has this guy been watching the QB play since 2008?

* The running game was tremendous.  I think LSU fans may take the Tiger’s ability to run for granted, but that performance was impressive.  We have seen LSU struggle at times in the past to run the ball against lesser teams or sustain long drives.  The Tigers had 5 scoring drives over 65 yards on Saturday, more than in any game last season.

* This game marked the first time since 1982 that two Tigers, Kenny Hilliard and Alfred Blue, rushed for over 100 yards in a season opener.  Dalton Hilliard and Gary James accomplished the feat back 30 years ago.  You may recall that LSU finished that season playing in the Orange Bowl in Miami.  This year’s National Title game will be played in…Miami.  Just saying.

* Tyrann Mathieu will be missed in the secondary, but “ODB,” Odell Beckham Jr. can more than carry his own on special teams.

* Don’t expect the defense to dominate like it did last year.  Losing Brockers (DT), Mathieu (CB), Claiborne (CB) and Taylor (S) is going to put the Tigers back a bit.

LSU gets Washington at home this week.  The Huskies won on Saturday in unconvincing fashion over San Diego State 21-12 in Seattle.  Washington is obviously better than North Texas and their QB, Keith Price is very talented.  UW averaged 255 yards a game thru the air last season.  This will be an excellent test for the young secondary.

On the flip side, Washington ranked 108 in scoring defense last season, giving up 35.9 points a game.  LSU’s offensive line will outweigh UW’s front four by about 60 pounds per man.  Look for LSU to rotate the backs and pound the running game.  Expect a little more diversity in the passing game as I “hope” the coaches attempt to introduce a few new plays each week.

It will be close for a half, but look for the heat and LSU’s offensive line to wear down UW.

LSU 40 – Washington 17