2011 Cotton Bowl

After a 15 year hiatus, LSU and Texas A&M renew a long standing rivalry. LSU’s history with A&M dates back to 1899.  In fact, LSU has played the Aggies 49 times, the third most frequent non-conference opponent in Tiger history.

A&M finished 9-3 defeating Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska down the stretch.   

In my eyes, the only “better” match-up for LSU’s bowl game would have been against Nebraska.  I am still waiting for the Tigers to avenge the series of loses to the Cornhuskers that occurred in the 80’s.  But the invitation to the Cotton Bowl resonates more than a credit card bowl game or a game named after a mediocre chain restaurant.  Of course Sugar would be sweeter, but a prime time match-up the Friday before the Championship game is a nice consolation present.

The Year in Review

If Les Miles can lead LSU to a win in the bowl game, he will join Bear Bryant and Phil Fulmer as the only SEC coaches to have four 11 win seasons, quite an accomplishment.  Looking at the season as a whole, the Tigers accomplished a great deal and won 10 games.  Wins over UNC, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Florida and Alabama should not be undervalued.  LSU’s only loses were to Auburn and Arkansas.  Those 8 teams are a combined 65-22 not counting their games against LSU.  For comparison, let us look at the top 8 games for these teams:

Team	Opp. Record	Teams w/ Winning Record
LSU	65-22	7
Oregon	50-34	3
Stanford	50-31	4
TCU	54-33	5
Wisconsin	56-31	5
Ohio State	53-34	6
Boise State	59-26	5

It could be argued that LSU actually overachieved considering the lack of a legitimate quarterback on the team. The Tigers finished 107th in the nation in passing. Dead last in the SEC. Jefferson had to be graded out with a ‘D’ for the season. He passed for only 1253 yards and FOUR touchdowns. FOUR! He also threw 9 INT’s and multiple fumbles. Miles says he likes Jefferson because he can run. Well, on 111 carries he only averaged 3.5 yards a carry with six TD’s. Take away the 83 yard TD versus Tennessee and it goes down to 2.7 yards a carry. In total, Jefferson ranked 10th in the SEC in yards per play amongst the league’s QB’s. He accounted for only 10 TD’s while turning the ball over at least 11 times.

After Lee’s strong showing in the Tennessee game and his brilliant display in the Swamp, I did not understand the insistence on going back to Jefferson. Certainly Lee is flawed, but Jefferson will NEVER win anything of consequence for the Tigers. He is not a leader and frankly, I am just tired of his crappiness. However, unless something drastic occurs in the off season, look for more of the same from the LSU offense.

This leads to a valid criticism of Miles. In six seasons as the LSU head coach, Miles has yet to bring in a QB that would rank in the top half of the league. In 2005, the Tigers signed Ryan Perrilloux. We all know how that turned out as he was kicked off the team before the 2008 season. In 2006 the Tigers did not sign a single QB. In 2007 Miles only signed Jarrett Lee. In 2008 the only QB to sign was Jordan Jefferson. In 2009 Chris Garrett and Russell Shepard signed with LSU. Garrett transferred at the beginning of 2010 and Shepard moved to WR in is second tear on campus. In 2010, LSU again only signed one QB, Zach Lee. Lee signed with the LA Dodgers and never played a down with the Tigers.

Considering how important a QB is to the success of a football team, Miles has been GROSSLY negligent in recruiting the position. In six seasons, Miles’ “star” QB recruit is Jordan Jefferson, probably the WORST regular starter at the position in LSU history.

The offensive play calling left so much to be desired this season. LSU only scored TD’s on 52% of their drives in the red zone. Contrast that with Auburn (68%), Arkansas (71%) and South Carolina (68%). I understand that LSU’s QB’s can hamstring the play calls, but LSU’s inability to put teams away stems from the conservative play calling inside the 20. LSU tied with Army and Middle Tennessee State for DEAD LAST in the nation in red zone passing TD’s with TWO!! TWO!!

This year’s defense was solid, but not elite. The loss of DE Sam Montgomery to injury half way through the season really hurt LSU. Brandon Taylor’s absence was really felt in the Ole Miss and Arkansas games. The Tigers finished 9th nationally in scoring defense, total defense and pass defense. LSU was 17th nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. The real weakness was in the run stopping, the Tigers finished 37th in the nation and 6th in the SEC in rushing defense. Guess who finished 1st and 2nd in the league against the run. It is not a coincidence that South Carolina (1st) and Auburn (2nd) are playing in the SEC title game. Since 2002, the eventually SEC Champ has ranked no worse than 4th in the SEC in rush defense in every season except 2005. Regardless of who wins this Saturday, 6 of the last 8 SEC champs will have finished 1st or 2nd in the SEC in rushing defense. For LSU to return to the SEC Title game, the Tigers are going to have to do a better job up front.

Drake Nevis and Pep Levingston will play their final games in LSU upcoming bowl. The Tigers have recruited well, thus it will be up to the defensive coaches to make the transition seamless. Kelvin Sheppard and Patrick Peterson are also gone but again, LSU has recruited well so there are players who can step up. My hope is that there is more depth at the LB position next season.

I expect the offensive line to get better as LSU only loses one starter. At WR, the Tigers lose Terrance Tolliver, but Randle will be back, and I expect Shepard to improve and one of Chris Tolliver, Kadrone Boone or Jarrett Fobbs to step up. At RB, the Tigers are loaded starting with Stevan Ridley. Although not a game breaker, he is great between the tackles and runs as if his life depends upon it.

10-2 is solid, but if the Tigers had an actual college level QB, who knows how special this season could have been.

192...in a row?!

A streak is going to end today.  It is not a well known streak or all that important to many people outside of the Traylor Clan.  But my dad, William Traylor, has attended every LSU home game since October 23, 1982.  Ironically enough, that was the first game I ever attended.

Last week’s victory over Alabama was a landmark win by Les Miles.  With so many questions looming over the program after two disappointing season, Miles needed this win to show the LSU faithful that the program was heading in the right direction and on sound footing.  In season six, with all his own players, LSU and Miles out played and outcoached the Crimson Tide. 

LSU will be 9-1 after this week.  Miles needs to finish strong and build off the good will he has generated this season.  If the Tigers win out they will play in a BCS bowl for the third time under Miles.  Considering how poor the offense has been, that would be an amazing accomplishment.

LSU v. Alabama

I wish I could be more optimistic, but I don’t give LSU much of a chance this weekend against Alabama.  I expect a close game, but ultimately a Tide victory.

Do you trust Jefferson to protect the ball?

Do you think Jefferson will generate any points on his drives?

Do you think Les Miles and staff will make better adjustments than Saban and his staff at halftime?

Raise your hand if just answered “NO” to all the questions above.  I have ZERO faith in Jefferson.  LSU's offensive staff has struggled all season and Alabama is not the type of team to get things turned around against.

LSU can win this game, but they must do the following:

*Generate at least 10 points from the defense and special teams, be it long returns or a defensive score.

*Win the turnover battle.

*Jarrett Lee needs to duplicate his game at Florida.

*Defense must bounce back to regular form.  

Les Miles is 4-5 in November over the last two seasons.  Despite the strong 7-1 start, Miles needs to make sure this season doesn’t unravel.  The last two years, the Tigers have noticeably slump after getting knocked out of the SEC West race.  This is not a must win for Miles, but knocking off Saban and ending Bama’s National Title hopes would be an enormous boost for “The Hat.”  Miles is 14-1 after a loss in his time at LSU, make it 15-1 and the LSU faithful will be all smiles, for one week at least.

The Mad Hatter

“It’s just a hat and I’m not mad at anybody.”

-Les Miles

You can’t make this stuff up.  If I didn’t know any better, I would think that Miles planned on the game going down to the wire to prove to the naysayers that, in fact, he can manage late game situations.  Miles pushed all the right buttons and called the fake FG which eventually led to the game winning touchdown.

I’m not going to go into Miles’ long term future or whether he is a good coach, lucky or has made a deal with Satan.  Bottom line, he’s got the 5^th most wins since 2005 among active coaches.  He’s 20-7 in games decided by 7 points or less.  His players give a tremendous amount of effort throughout the season.  He can make the most patient of fans pull their hair out.  He uses poor syntax and can speak in the most confusing manner. (The Quotable Les Miles)  But he wins.  He’s 6-0 and will be 7-0 going into Auburn next week.  The Tigers could finish the season anywhere between 14-0 and 8-5.  Miles can quiet a lot of detractors over the next 6 games.

Jarrett Lee has kept LSU undefeated this season.  He has led two game winning TD drives the last two weeks.  This last week was his best performance as a Tiger.  He started five drives against Florida and led the offense to four TD’s.  Jefferson started six drives and garnered a grand total of…..6 points.  Lee got more playing time in the second half and I believe it is inevitable that he eventually gets the large majority of snaps as the season moves along.

The defense played well versus Florida but the final drive by the Gators was frustrating.  Given the defensive excellence through six games, fans can hardly complain.

Given the perceptions of the media, LSU has not gotten much credit for their 6-0 start.  Any discussion of the Tigers includes references of clock mismanagement, luck or their formerly inept passing game.  Urban Meyer was 36-2 at the Swamp going into this game, the only losses coming to Auburn in 2007 and Ole Miss in 2008.  Despite Florida being a little down this year, this was a great win for LSU.  But all you hear about is Lucky Les and how mediocre UF has been this season.

LSU will handle McNeese this weekend, but the big test will be against Auburn in two weeks.  Enjoy the build up and savor the soon to be 7-0 start.   

Hi. My name is Les Miles, and I'm an idiot

Absurd - ridiculously unreasonable, unsound, or incongruous.  (Merriam Webster Dictionary)

The term that repeatedly comes to mind is “absurd.”  The stupidity and poor coaching at the end of that game goes beyond comprehension.  Whoever made the decision to try and sub players at the end of that game should be fired, Miles, Crowton, whoever.  For a group of people that make collectively over $4 million per season, the fiasco which will forever define this game is completely inexcusable.

1. Which phrase best describes the end of the LSU v. Tennessee?
1. A Chinese fire drill
2. A bunch of monkeys trying to f*ck a football
3. The Mad Hatter strikes again
4. All of the above

To begin with, it took the staff 20 seconds to run Jefferson in the game for the second down play.  Why was he in there?  Lee was doing a GREAT job on that drive?  Jefferson barely got the play off.  After getting tackled, instead of immediately spiking the ball, he looks to the sideline.  He was tackled with 26 seconds left to go.  With 14 seconds left, Tolliver, Shepard and Randall are run in.  Jefferson does not move to get under center until 7 seconds are left.  T-Bob snaps the ball with only 3 seconds left.  Of course Jefferson mishandles the snap.  Tennessee bailed LSU out by having too many players on the field.

Only a few people probably know the truth, but it is my guess that Miles called for the substitution.  He has no concept of time and this smacks of his disorganized mind.  Why weren’t two plays called?  Was Jefferson told to spike the ball if he didn’t make it and he panicked?  Regardless, I also blame Jefferson; he has NO CONCEPT of game situations or clock awareness.  He should have immediately taken charge and gathered the team up to spike the ball.  I cannot say how tired I am of Jefferson’s shortcomings.  He was 3 of 10 for 30 yards and 2 INT’s.  His passing efficiency rating was 15.2, possibly the lowest in LSU history for a player making at least 10 pass attempts.

Miles is now 56-15 at LSU.  He is 31-14 in SEC games.  His record defies logic.  How does someone who is so incompetent at managing late game situations compile such a record?  It’s almost too easy to say he’s dumb, a moron or a fool.  If it was simple as that, he would not be where he is or have had the success he has enjoyed.  Could he be called the village idiot that continually falls in shit and comes out smelling of roses?  Maybe he is incredibly lucky.  I think it is fair to say that he is one of the worst game day coaches out there.  After the game he said he was embarrassed about the chaos at the end of the game.  He should be.  He’s a joke and LSU fans deserve better.  At this point, Miles has absolutely no good will remaining and every game will be a referendum on whether he should be fired.  Miles has no one to blame but himself for the perception that the media and fans hold of him.

Les Miles, you’re an idiot.

Earlier this season I discussed Miles’ magic number.  At this point I think 9 wins is a must.  I am pretty confident there will be a big turnover on the offensive side of the ball if Miles is invited back next season.

On the positive side, Lee looked great relative to what we have seen from Jefferson thus far.  He threw downfield effectively and went 7 for 9 in the game winning drive.  Is he the savior? Nope.  But at this point he is the best LSU has to offer.  He took command of the team and made clutch throws down the stretch.

The defense was also terrific.  The Tigers gave up only 14 points and 217 yards to Tennessee.  LSU sacked Sims 5 times and stuffed the Vols on fourth down triggering LSU’s game winning drive.  LSU is now ranked 6^th in total defense, 6^th in rushing defense and 5^th in scoring defense nationally.  It is a shame this defense will be wasted by Miles’ stupidity.   

It seems inconceivable to me to be this frustrated with a 5-0 team.  Like most fans, I realize LSU and Les Miles are living on borrowed time.  With upcoming games versus Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas, LSU’s season may get very ugly before it’s over.

Florida is up next. The Gators were destroyed by Alabama Saturday.  I expect LSU’s defense to continue to carry the day in Gainesville.  The question is what will we get from the offense. Can Lee be “the guy” on offense?  Will Miles insist on Jefferson’s participation?  Can the defense generate some turnovers?  Can the offense stop committing turnovers?

LSU’s defense is too good to get blown out and Florida’s offense is too weak to dominate the Tigers.  Florida will make a few more plays than LSU and win by ten.  But don't be surprised if LSU comes out and plays very well.  Effort has NEVER been a question under Miles.  Don't be stunned if LSU pulls the upset.

Gators 23 – LSU 13 

Frustration Mounts

"It will only be a championship season, and that’s the only point and direction of this program. That’s where we’re headed."

-Les Miles

For Miles to deliver a championship in 2010, the offense must play better, particularly, Jordan Jefferson.  Among Tiger fans (and probably Tiger coaches) there is a tremendous amount of frustration with the offense.  LSU is currently ranked 115^th out of 120 teams in passing offense.  Jefferson is ranked 113^th in the country and dead last in the SEC in passing efficiency.  It appears that for some reason he has regressed from last season.  This is even more troubling when you consider the improvement by the offensive line and the running game.  Herb Tyler, where have you gone?

It seems clear that Jefferson is Miles’ guy.  Otherwise we would have seen Lee play a few meaningful snaps.  Miles believes that Jefferson gives LSU the best chance to win.  Having said that, it is also clear that the staff has VERY LITTLE faith in Jefferson.  The play calling is not fancy or diverse.  LSU must ‘out execute’ other teams because clearly they will not ‘out scheme’ any one.  Think about it, when was the last time you said, wow, that was a really great play call by LSU?

Miles’ plays Jefferson because unlike Lee, Jefferson is generally good at protecting the ball.  He had only 7 INT’s last season but is now on pace to finish this season with 12.  I assume Miles is willing to accept Jefferson’s shortcomings as long as he doesn’t kill LSU with turnovers.  Jefferson was sacked 37 times last season.  This year he is on pace for 12.  Again, Jefferson does not give up ‘negative’ plays.  I am not trying to justify Miles’ thought process, rather I am trying to explore the most likely scenario for why Lee remains firmly rooted to the bench.

The boos came cascading down last night as Jefferson’s play got worse as the game went along.  After starting 6 for 7, Jefferson went 4 for 15 finishing the game at 10 for 22 for 75 yards and 2 INT’s.  He still stares down receivers and can be terribly inaccurate. 

Last season, many of the talking heads on the local radio and in the nation media asked the question, “What is LSU’s identity?”  I think after four games that question has been answered in 2010.  LSU is going to play great defense, be excellent in special teams play and do just enough on offense to win the game.  The Tigers are going to run the ball and pass just enough to get by.  I believe the staff wants to shorten the game and reduce the number of drives by each team to cover up the offensive deficiencies.

The ultimate question then becomes, can LSU win with this philosophy?  More specifically, can LSU overtake Alabama and Florida in search of an SEC Title?  LSU has a national title worthy defense and special teams the envy of most teams in America.  But the offense may be the worst LSU has produced in the last 50 years.  In the age of spread offenses and with all the supposed talent on this team, the pathetic output of the offense is unacceptable.  I’m not saying Lee will be any better, but until he is given a chance, expect the booing to increase with every poor throw and missed wide receiver.

Let's Dumb it Down

From Miles' press conference on Monday.

On wanting QB Jordan Jefferson to be more aggressive…

“Well, we just want him to play, have some fun, smile and maybe do some things that he’s more comfortable with. Maybe it’s simplifying the game plan, or maybe it’s giving him the checks that he’s most comfortable with and really let him have some input on it. We know he can run the team. We know he has leadership ability. We just want to make him most productive. I just think we need to let him play.”

 Are you kidding me?  From what I can see, the game plan is not very sophisticated as it is.  Jefferson has been in the program three years and you are still having to simplify the game plan?  That's just great.

Time for a Change?

Please raise your hand if you have had about enough of Jordan Jefferson. The junior signal caller played his worst game in a Tiger uniform going 8 for 20 with only 96 yards and one INT. His QB rating for the game was an atrocious 70.32. By comparison, Auburn’s Cameron Newton rated out at 142.23 in his most recent game at MSU on Thursday night. Jefferson also ran the ball 13 times for a grand total of 13 yards. Jefferson was directly involved in 33 plays with a per play average of 3.3 yards. Garbage. I was in Jefferson’s camp and believed that this would be a break out season for him. While he played well versus UNC, he was abysmal this Saturday against the worst team in the SEC.

So what happens now? I hope Jefferson bounces back with a very good game against MSU. But I think Lee deserves a drive or two each half this weekend. You have to wonder about the level of confidence in Jefferson inside the LSU camp amongst coaches and players. LSU’s offensive line is playing better this season in pass protection and run blocking. Yet LSU is still ranked 107th in the nation is passing offense. Jefferson has had ample opportunity to make plays and hasn’t excelled, as you would expect from a player with his experience.

The defense is nasty. The Tigers are #2 nationally in sacks, #4 in tackles for loss and #4 in rushing defense giving up a paltry 44 yards a game on the ground. Through two games, the Tigers are only allowing opponents to convert on 20% of third down conversions. Drake Nevis has been a beast in the middle. IF the linebacker corps matures and the secondary rounds into shape, this looks to be a championship caliber defense.

A few other observations:

* What’s up with Michael Ford? He only got in the game at garbage time while true freshman Alfred Blue got a number of meaningful carries.

* Miles takes a lot of criticism but give him credit for sticking to his guns regarding the team’s offensive identity. LSU ran the ball 50 times for 280 yards. LSU ran a lot of two tight end sets looking to establish the ground game.

* LSU is averaging 5.17 yards a carry this season. Take out Jefferson’s 23 attempts and it moves to 6.73.

* Why are we still running the option?

LSU v.MSU

LSU gets State in the home opener this Saturday. The Bulldogs let a number of opportunities get away in their 17-14 loss to Auburn last week. MSU looked pedestrian on offense racking up only 117 rushing yards and 129 yards passing. I expect the game to be close in the first half with the Tigers pulling away late in the third quarter. I have it on a fairly reliable source that Lee will get an opportunity to play some meaningful snaps on Saturday. Let’s hope he comes out sharp and pushes for more playing time.

LSU 27 – MSU 13

1-0

I can say that almost without exception, it is better to give yourself 24 hours before writing about the Tigers. Be it a win or a loss, a little time to reflect and evaluate is invaluable.

I think it is fair to say that this was probably one of the more disheartening wins I’ve ever sat through. If you view the game standing alone, LSU’s performance could be explained away by any number of factors unique to that particular game. It was a season opener. It was at a neutral site. LSU has a number of new players on defense. UNC played with a great deal of determination. LSU let down after getting up by 20 in the first half.

But viewed in the light of Les Miles’ regime in Baton Rouge, the game was extremely troubling. How many times have we seen LSU fail to close out opponents? In three of LSU’s losses last season, the Tigers held leads going into the fourth quarter only to fade down the stretch. Against a team missing seven defensive starters, LSU’s offense mirrored last years’ unit. An inability to move the ball with any consistency and very questionable play calling were all too reminiscent of 2009. Did I also mention the sloppiness and lack of focus? Let’s start there.

* 8 penalties.
* The roughing the kicker penalty gave UNC the ball back and led to their first TD drive.
* The holding call on Hebert which brought back a nice TD run by Ridley.
* 5 turnovers.
* Speaking of Ridley, his two fumbles nearly cost LSU the game. With LSU driving for the clinching score early in the third quarter, Ridley fumbles at the UNC 12. Then late in the game with only a minute left he coughs it up again.
* 1 missed FG
* The secondary looked lost at times giving up over 400 yards passing.

On the plus side, Patrick Peterson is fantastic. His 244 return yards through 30 minutes allowed LSU to score 30 first half points. Minus the missed FG, special teams were fantastic.

The run defense was stellar giving up only 24 yards the entire game. Yates was sacked 4 times and the Tigers accumulated 11 tackles for loss.

Russell Shepard and Rueben Randall looked great.

Jordan Jefferson was fairly efficient but two bone headed plays left many fans (myself included) questioning whether he has progressed from last season.

I think it foolish to make any definitive statements about this team thus far. It is clear they have tremendously talented playmakers, but do they have the mental focus and proper coaching to win a championship? I’ve been a believer in Miles but I am getting more and more frustrated with LSU’s tendency to play to the level of the competition. I am curious to see how LSU plays this weekend against Vanderbilt. The Tigers should win this game comfortably. But I expect it to be a much tighter affair until late.

LSU 27 - Vandy 10

Predictions

SEC East

1. Florida
2. South Carolina
3. Georgia
4. Kentucky
5. Tennessee
6. Vanderbilt

SEC West

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Mississippi State
6. Ole Miss

A few thoughts:

* Alabama and Florida are still the two best teams in the SEC until proven otherwise.  The October 2^nd game in Tuscaloosa should be titanic.

* I’m not buying the hype on the Hogs.   Sure, they will put up a lot of points, but the defense is atrocious.  Even with a plus 15 turnover margin, Arkansas finished dead last in the league in total defense.

* No one will go undefeated in the league this year.  Florida and Alabama are 31-1 in the SEC the past two seasons.

* Georgia is a huge question mark this season.  One poll has them ranked third while others leave the Bulldogs unranked.  The September 11 game at South Carolina will be an elimination game for the chance to challenge the Gators for the East title.

*As usual, the media loves offense and thus gave a nod to Auburn over LSU in the West.  The problem is Auburn's defense stunk last season finishing 11^th in the SEC in total defense and 12^th in scoring defense.  What has changed to give the defense a boost?

The Magic Number is...?

I was recently asked how many wins Miles needs to keep his job.  This is a legitimate question that I will address.  However, I am frustrated by the fact that this question seems to be the primary interest for many LSU fans.  Not whether Jordan Jefferson will become the QB everyone wants him to be.  Not whether LSU will be able to run the ball this season.  Not even whether LSU’s defense can become the dominating unit it has been in the past.  The questions that raise the most interest involve Miles’ future (or lack there of) at LSU.

To answer the initial question, I think Miles needs to go 8-4 to retain his job.  If he goes 8-4 and the four loses are competitive, I could see him being given an ultimatum for the 2011 season, SEC Title, BCS game or 10 wins…or the door.  Miles looks to have a tremendous recruiting class coming in for 2011 and the team will be poised to make a strong run based on the 2011 schedule and the number of returning starters.  Those factors weigh in his favor.  Could they fire him if he goes 8-4, sure.  I just think he would be given one more year to try and recapture the success of his first three years at LSU. 

Give me your thoughts.  How many wins do you think Miles needs?

The Over Signing Issue

Miles is taking a lot of heat on the over signing issue.  My thought is this is well deserved but a little unfair as Saban is the worst offender.  The SEC or NCAA should step in and stop the practice.

Mixed thoughts on Miles

Dennis Dodd's thoughts about Les

Bleacher Report article on Miles

You have to look at the source when reading these articles.  The writer in the Bleacher Report refers to the SEC as the "South Eastern Conference."  Are you kidding?  Some guy who doesn't know that the proper name of the SEC is the Southeastern Conference is going to then state that Miles is gone after 8-4?  I notice he failed to mention the $14-$15 million buy out.  Who is going to pay that?

Furthermore, Burton says, "in typical Les Miles fashion, he may continue to lose one he shouldn't..."  Miles has been at LSU for five years, outside of the loss to Arkansas in 2008, where are these "typical losses?" Please readers, tell me where LSU was heavily favored and lost a game the experts picked them to win.

I accept that Miles has his short comings and they cost LSU the Ole Miss game.  I also accept that some people want Miles gone, even if he were to win the SEC Title.  I just think any discussion should be based on facts and reality, not some wild notion that LSU is one of the elites of college football where anything less than 10 wins a year is a failure.  LSU has NEVER been that school and with the SEC as deep as it is, may NEVER be that school in the future.

SEC Media Days

A few LSU notes from SEC Media Days...

More SEC Media Day coverage...

"Truths" & "Myths" cont.

Yesterday I addressed the question of Jefferson's efficiency during the 2009 season. There were some legitimate observations posted on the comments that got me thinking. Given Jefferson's solid numbers, why wasn't he more effective? I looked at more 2009 stats, specifically, the TOTAL plays from the SEC's top QB's and came away with some interesting numbers. Again, only conference games are referenced.

Player	School	Plays	Yards/Play
Jefferson	LSU	293	5.3
Tebow	Florida	360	6.0
McElroy	Alabama	266	6.7
Mallet	Arkansas	316	6.8
Todd	Auburn	227	5.3
Cox	Georgia	239	7.4
Garcia	South Carolina	380	5.7

(All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com)

In all fairness to his detractors, when the sacks and rushing attempts are factored in, Jefferson's yards per play average is relatively poor compared to the other top SEC quarterbacks. For LSU to thrive, he must be more productive with the ball in his hands in 2010.

Thanks for reading and the feedback.

LSU 2010

Summer Reading

LSU Preview from College Football News

LSU Preview from Athlons

Preview of LSU v. UNC opener

Welcome Back

September 4, 2010 is still six weeks away, but college football season is rapidly approaching.  I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming season as we go along, but in the interim, I will post a few nuggets and other (hopefully) interesting stuff.

For a stats junkie like me, it doesn’t get any better than this College Football Stats page.  Just like reading a horse racing form, I am hoping to pore through all of the data to discover some underlying truths to help explain prior results and also to debunk some commonly held assumptions and conclusions that just don’t hold up under scrutiny.  Here are three “myths” and “truths” that bare a closer look under the stats microscope.  All of the stats reference conference games only.

1. LSU’s defense was on the field way too much.  This “bend but don’t break philosophy doesn’t work.”

Now I will agree that at times it seemed the defense was always on the field, but the stats create an interesting picture.  LSU’s defense was on the field for 545 plays in 2009, 4^th most in the conference.  Would you believe that Alabama’s vaunted defense had 560 plays, 2^nd most in the SEC?  LSU’s defense was only on the field two plays more per game than Florida.  Furthermore, LSU gave up only 4.8 yards per play, ranking 3^rd.  Alabama and Florida led the conference at 4.5 yards per play.

2. Jordan Jefferson is the problem on offense.

Compare these four QB’s:

1. QB “A” – Comp % 54, TD’s 14, INT’s 7, Rating 118.39
2. QB “B” – Comp % 58, TD’s 11, INT’s 8, Rating 128.48
3. QB “C” – Comp % 52, TD’s 11, INT’s 8, Rating 118.42
4. QB “D” – Comp % 62, TD’s  9, INT’s 4,  Rating 130.65

Quarterback A was a 5^th year senior and won a National Championship that season.  Quarterback B was a redshirt sophomore who eventually went on to become the #1 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.  Quarterback C was a true sophomore who eventually went on to be the #1 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.  Quarterback D will be starting for LSU against UNC on September 4^th.  We are talking about Matt Flynn, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford and Jordan Jefferson.

At this point in their careers, Jefferson stacks up very well.  He has a better rating and the fewest turnovers.  Furthermore, 2009 saw the worst offensive line in the past decade at LSU.  Jefferson absolutely needs to improve, but let us place blame where it belongs, on the large shoulders on the O-line.

3. Winning the “turnover battle” is just coach speak.

The last three SEC Champs have all finished first in the league in turnover margin.  Since 2004, the lowest turnover margin by the eventual champion was the 2004 Auburn team that went undefeated.  The Tigers finished at +1, ranked 5^th in the conference.

Thanks to cfbstats.com for all of the data.  Priceless.

Do College Players Really Get Cut?

Interesting article from oversigning.com on schools that "oversign" players each year.  Schools are limited to 85 scholarship players at the start of each season which ultimately forces players to leave the team before their eligibility expires.  You will never hear a coach say a player was "cut," but that is exactly what is going on.  (Click here for more)

I love mail!

Prowler

The people aren't upset Miles can't coach.They're upset that a fairly incompetent coach make more in a year than they do in a lifetime.There are quite a few below average to average coaches in the collegiuate ranks.  The people are pissed because while they bust their hump for 25-35k a year, spend a 5th of their salary on ridiculously priced season tickets, and this assclown is netting 4 mil to put out a subpar product. When you make 4 mil, you can't let clocks run out or throw a middle-in with no time left and--suprise suprise--no timeouts left.  He's a bad coach and worth about 60k...max. LSU overpayed, and everyone knows it. That's why they're mad.  And ask yourself what exactly was enjoyable about this season?  Very little.  You talk about the combined points for LSU's 4 losses. What about their wins. [emphasis added by me]


UW-Close
MSU-Squeaker
UGA- last second
Ark-OT


This season was a waste.  We'll see what happens with season tickets this year.


You keep the faith.
 
Anonymous
 
AH!!

Jealousy! That explains a lot. Here is this guy who makes tons of money that the average person will never make. He makes so much money and therefore he should be held to a higher standard. You know why he gets paid so much? Because “assclowns” (such as yourself? Just kidding, you didn’t leave your name so I have no idea who you are.) pay a ridiculous amount of money to go watch a bunch of 18-22 year olds run around and crash into each other.

My entire point is this: The delusional behavior where fans wrap their OWN self worth into LSU football is understandable on some level but ultimately misguided. I honestly feel sorry for these people whose lives are so empty that firing the head coach of LSU’s football team is the only thing that would get them motivated enough to “write a letter to the editor.” Who is the real dummy? The guy making 4 million a year or the guy who gives his hard earned money to the LSU football program so LSU can spend $20K on gold helmets for a “one time alternate uniform?”

As for this season, was I frustrated at times? Absolutely! Did I get upset about LSU’s struggles? You bet. But I’m a “just win baby!” type of guy. That is all I care about, winning the damn game. When I look at the Troy game last year, I see the greatest comeback in LSU history. When I look at the wins over Arkansas and Georgia this season, fantastic drama!

If you are so unhappy with a 9-4 season, why do you even watch? If you cannot find anything to enjoy about winning 9 games, I ask again, why do you even bother?

I sat through 6 losing seasons from 1989 to 1994. I sat through the entire 58-3 beat down Florida laid on LSU in 1993. I didn’t leave. I don’t expect everyone to agree with me. I don’t expect everyone understand the type of pressure and adversity I face on a daily basis which colors my personal perspective of LSU football. But I will never understand nor embrace the irrational negativity or the myopia of LSU fans.

Thanks for reading and responding.

Prowler

2009 put to bed...

Earlier today I got an e-mail from a friend asking me if I was still on the Les Miles bandwagon. You bet I am. I look for very good things the next two seasons from Miles and the Tigers. I'll tell you why.

1. Jordan Jefferson is one of only six underclassmen that start at QB for teams ranked in the AP Top 25. SIX. The other 19 teams in the Top 25 have junior or senior QB's, many who were redshirted. Furthermore, only TWO of those six had more wins than Jefferson, Kellen Moore at Boise and Terrell Pryor at Ohio State. Moore is actually a redshirt sophomore, meaning he had the benefit of an entire year on campus before he stepped on the field. It never fails to amaze me how fans are unable to appreciate the difficulties for young QB's thrown into the fire and asked to perform immediately. Quick, name me the last QB that played in the SEC Championship in only his second year on campus.

2. LSU will be better on the offensive line. There are a number of younger players that will be given an opportunity and I have faith in Miles and the staff to get this group going in the right direction. A better line means a better running game and less pressure on Jefferson to carry this team as he has been forced to do.

3. LSU's defense will be even better in 2010. The core of the secondary returns intact. Nevis will anchor the line and will benefit from talented younger players emerging. Kelvin Sheppard has morphed into an All-SEC caliber player and will be back next season. With another year of the same defensive staff working together, I expect big things from a defense that ranked 12th in the nation in points allowed in 2009.

4. The conference will be in a transition period next season. Tebow is gone at Florida. Joe Cox at Georgia and Jonathan Crompton at Tennessee are graduating. In the West, MSU, Ole Miss and Auburn will all start new QB's. If Mallet goes pro, the Hogs will also be looking for a new starter at QB.

5. The 2010 schedule will be challenging but manageable. Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss and MSU all visit Tiger Stadium. Auburn, Florida, Arkansas and Vandy will be on the road.

6. This year's team is not nearly as bad as the "doom & gloom" clan would lead you to believe. LSU lost four games by a combined 23 points. The four teams LSU lost to are a combined 46-7. With better play on both sides of the ball in 2010, LSU can finish 10-2 with a possible SEC Title or BCS Bowl game birth.

7. Miles will get his mojo back. Despite stumbling the last two season, from a strictly won/loss perspective, Miles has been fantastic. Don't believe me, look HERE. I know half the fan base wants him gone, 30% aren't sure and the rest are still backing him. The funny thing is, NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS NEXT YEAR, HALF OF THE PEOPLE WILL STILL WANT MILES GONE.

Former Texas Tech coach, Spike Dykes, was once quoted as saying the following:


"....as a coach, you lose about 10 percent of your friends every year. And that's in a good year; attrition is proportional to losing.......I never met a coach who didn't do what he thought was best to win every game. You don't win every one, of course, and you make mistakes, too. So, along the way, your personal bandwagon develops more vacancies on an annual basis (taken from the book, Spike Dykes Tales from the Texas Sidelines)."

Which leads me to...

Final observations

*The psychology and mind set of the sports fan in general and the LSU fan in particular fascinates me. While coaches have little or no impact whatsoever on their lives, fans are ready and willing to go on the record that the coach needs to be fired. Meanwhile, their elected politicians are literally raping these same fans at the state capital or in Washington D.C. Does my Senator agree with the health care reform bill which will allow the government to dictate who my doctor is? Who cares! The real question is whether the coach is going to run a pro style offense or the spread. Is my President for or against military tribunals? Irrelevant! What really matters is whether the coach can expertly manage the clock in late game situations.

*I think Oklahoma and USC are great examples this season of what can happen when you don't have experience at the QB position. Stoops and Carroll are very good coaches that were forced to play young QB's and it showed.

*Some of you may have seen THIS ARTICLE in the paper. Just to let you know, all is quiet on the home front, any taunting will result in a 5 diaper change penalty and loss of quiet time.

I like to get a little feedback so send me your predictions for next season. Plus, if you are on the 'Fire Les' bandwagon, send me who you think LSU should get and why. prowler257@aol.com

Thanks so much to everyone who reads. Without you i'm just some dude taking space up on the internet...(feel free to send in snide comments)...see you next time.