While Florida was a no brainer from the East, the SEC West has been…unpredictable.
1995: After being picked to finish 4th or 5th by most magazines, Arkansas breaks Alabama’s hold on the West and makes its first appearance in the SEC Championship.
1997: LSU was picked by many to win the division and play Tennessee for the SEC Title. UT held up its end of the bargain but Auburn beat LSU in Baton Rouge and made its first appearance in Atlanta.
1998: LSU was again a near consensus pick to win the West. The Tigers fell apart allowing Mississippi State, picked 5th or 6th by all the major publications to make their only appearance in Atlanta.
2000: Alabama opened the season #3 in the country and a consensus pick by ALL the pre-season magazines to win the SEC West. Before it the season was over, Mike Dubose was fired and lightly regarded Auburn, picked to finish 4th or 5th by most, made their second trip to the Georgia Dome.
2002: Coming off a 2001 SEC title, many picked LSU to repeat as West champs. It wasn’t to be as Arkansas, picked by most to finish 4th or 5th, beat LSU in Little Rock to capture another West crown.
2003: One publication picked Auburn to win the National Championship. Those Tigers finished a disappointing 7-5 while LSU won its first National Title in 45 years.
2004: This time LSU stumbles as pre-season favorite while Auburn goes 13-0 but gets shut out of the National Title game.
2006: Arkansas is picked to finish 4th by almost all the preseason publications. Behind Darren McFadden and the “Wild Hog,” Arkansas goes 7-1 in the conference to win the West.
2008: LSU and Auburn, pre-season favorites, falter as Alabama goes 12-0 in the regular season to win the West.
SEC West PredictionOle Miss
LSU
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Miss. State
Why Ole Miss?
Call it a hunch. The Rebels have never won the division; they are the only West team to never appear in the SEC Championship. But they get a number of things breaking their way. The schedule is favorable, no Florida or Georgia. Tennessee, LSU and Alabama must travel to Oxford this year. The Rebels have the most experienced QB in the division in Jevan Sneed. There is enough experience returning to hit the ground running from the opening game. Finally, I like Houston Nutt. He has proven he can win big games and take teams to the SEC Title game. (Beat LSU in Baton Rouge in ’07 and Florida in Gainesville in ’08. Arkansas won SEC West in ’02 and ’06) The Rebels were picked to finish 3rd in the division behind Alabama and LSU by the SEC Media. Nutt will use this as motivation for his team.
As most of my regular readers know, I am a big fan of Les Miles. His reshaping of the defensive staff during the off-season rewarded my faith. Miles has brought in a number of fantastic coaches including John Chavis. LSU’s defense will be very good this season. There is no question that LSU has great players on that side of the ball and I think fans will see a renewed intensity. Rahim Alem will be fantastic and the secondary will play MUCH better. The problem for LSU is inexperience at QB and a rough schedule. Trips to Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss combined with Florida and Auburn at home present LSU with a formidable task. Jordan Jefferson played VERY well in the two games against Arkansas and Georgia Tech last season. But we don’t know how he will respond on a weekly basis in some rather hostile stadiums.
Alabama is ranked so highly for one reason, Saban. The Tide lost their two best offensive linemen (both taken in the NFL draft), their top RB and a 5th year QB. They will be a good team, but don’t expect all the bounces to go their way. Road trips to Kentucky, Ole Miss and Auburn will present real challenges. Home games against South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU will also be very close affairs. Think about this, Bama was 5th in scoring offense, 6th in total offense, 3rd in rushing offense and 9th in passing offense in the SEC in 2008. After losing four key players on that side of the ball, why should we expect them to be better or even as good? Championships are built on defense, but unless Alabama can keep the chains moving, that defense will get worn down.
The head coaches at Arkansas, Auburn and MSU have a combined ONE year of service as head coaches in the SEC. I’m not going to pretend to know how exactly they shake out. Auburn and MSU are strong on defense but suffered horribly on offense in 2008. The Hogs struggled all year and finished 93 in the country in scoring defense. One of these teams will get to 6-6 or better and make a bowl.
