We don't Rebuild, we Reload

Since 2003, LSU has finished every season in the top three nationally in total defense. Think about it, for five consecutive years, the Tiger’s defense was statistically one of the best in the nation.

Oh how we have stumbled. LSU now ranks 35th in the country and has given up 50 points twice in the same season for the first time in 115 years of football. LSU’s opponents’ scoring average is 25.9 points a game and is the highest since the Curly Hallman years. Admittedly, the number is a bit skewed by Lee’s ability to throw pick 6’s, but even taking those scores away the Tigers are giving up over 21 points a game.

So what’s the problem?

In my humble opinion, a combination of poor coaching, poor execution and a lack of leadership are to blame.

With respect to the coaches, based on the seven games we have seen so far, Miles made a mistake in failing to look outside of his staff for a defensive coordinator. Players look out of position at times and coverages are getting blown with alarming frequency. The defense only has seven take aways and big plays have been very rare.

The defensive line is not the rock it has been the last few seasons as the loss of Dorsey and Alexander’s inability to return to pre injury form have hurt the Tigers. Throw in François’ injury to the mix as well and the lack of productivity is not surprising.

At the linebacker position, Beckwith may still be battling a knee injury and Kelvin Shepard is really struggling to make plays. There is no real depth so the staff is a bit hamstrung, but I would like to see Ryan Baker get a little playing time. This group is extremely weak in comparison to past years.

The secondary has struggled all season. We have seen very few interceptions or big plays out of the group. Craig Steltz was a real leader in the back and a guy who had a great feel for the position. He regularly laid guys out and had a knack for picking off passes.

LSU misses Dorsey, Steltz, Highsmith, Zenon and Jackson on the defensive side of the ball. These were great players and more importantly great leaders. I think it is fair to say that LSU has an average defense this season. They are certainly good enough to compete with most of the SEC, but not nearly good enough to compete for 60 minutes with the likes of Florida or Georgia.

The last six games of the season will be telling. If Mallory is able to right the ship, Miles would be justified in giving him another season handling the defense. But if LSU doesn’t improve on that side of the ball, Miles will have to make some changes on that staff if he hopes to maintain LSU’s status as an elite program. I’m not ready to throw Mallory under the bus, but the engine is running.

A few other observations:

*The officiating left a lot to be desired. A face mask no call and a no call on a pass interference that was deemed a tip at the line in the first half did not help at all.

*Georgia’s #9, Reshad Jones (S) is going to see Charles Scott in his sleep. Scott ran over and around Jones numerous times on Saturday.

*After watching the game on TV I feel a little better about how LSU played. Georgia is an excellent team and LSU refused to go away. I am optimistic about the continued development of the offense.

*I still like Lee as LSU’s quarterback. But it is not as if LSU has a lot of choices. Hatch is not going to win you many football games. He is limited in so many ways that at this point, I don’t see any meaningful benefit in playing him. Jefferson is too inexperienced to start, but now may be the time to get him in the game. He can do the running that Hatch can do and with his athleticism, he has plenty of potential.

*On Saturday, Georgia’s quarterback, Matthew Stafford, was fantastic, but in his freshman season he threw seven TD’s and 13 INT’s. Keep that in mind in evaluating Lee. He has been essentially thrown to the wolves and has shown signs of bumping up against the SEC’s steep learning curve. The coaches need to work with him and craft a passing regime that works to his strength and keeps him away from any more pick 6’s. If he can master the mental side of the game, he can become a very special player.

*I’ve harped on this before, but you cannot understate the importance of senior leadership at the quarterback position. Look at the SEC’s Champions since the inception of the title game:

2007 – LSU – senior Matt Flynn
2006 – Florida – senior Chris Leak
2005 – Georgia – senior DJ Shockley
2004 – Auburn – senior Jason Campbell
2001 – LSU – senior Rohan Davey
1998 – Tennessee – senior Tee Martin
1997 – Tennessee – senior Peyton Manning
1996 – Florida – senior Danny Wuerffel
1992 – Alabama – senior Jay Barker

This season, Alabama is lead by senior John Parker Wilson. Would you bet against Saban in the SEC Championship?

Tigers get Cocky

This was a huge win.

I know South Carolina is not one of the elite teams in the SEC, but winning at their place was a giant boost for the Tigers. Now at 5-1, the Tigers will play Georgia to keep pace with Alabama in the West.

A few observations from Saturday:

*Defense looked much better. Not great, but much, much better. The Tigers sacked Garcia six times, picked up two fumbles and Curtis Taylor came up with a great pick after the Tigers went up late. Tyson Jackson looked like an NFL first rounder as LSU’s “Express” package gave South Carolina fits. Reminded me a bit of the “Bandit” package LSU used against Florida in ’97 by then defensive coordinator Carl Reese. Part of this may have been due to injuries as François and Alexander were out and Nevis hurt his ankle in the first half. Blitzes were coming from a number of directions as the hits on Garcia wore him down and created big plays for LSU. Kudos go out to Coach Mallory. The Tigers held the Gamecocks to 42 yards in the second half as the play calling was more aggressive than it has been all year. That’s about as impressive a performance as you are going to see.

*Lee made some very nice throws, but he has got to stay away from these killer interceptions. His completion percentage is strong and will continue to get better. He now has five straight home games after cutting his teeth in some of the toughest stadiums in the country. I think Lee is doing just fine.

*The “local village idiot,” also more commonly known as Richard Condon, has been showing his ass on the radio. He rips Lee and supports his argument by asking with a skeptical tone, “do you believe if LSU was down with two minutes left that he can move down the field and win the game?” Uh, you mean like when he threw the game winning pass on the road at Auburn with 1:03 left on the clock? Idiot.

*Hats off to Coach Miles. I think he is underrated and unappreciated by the national media. You don’t hear his name mentioned with some other upper echelon coaches, but just look at what he has done at Oklahoma State and now LSU. He has an 84.8% winning record at LSU with two appearances in the SEC title game, an SEC title, two BCS Bowl wins and a National Championship. He is now 7-0 after a loss while at LSU and has a gaudy 11-4 record in SEC road games.

*The BCS…Fear not Tiger fans, LSU comes in at #13 in the BCS standings but there is plenty of time and plenty of games for the Tigers to climb the polls. LSU plays Georgia and Alabama and would get a rematch with Florida (most likely) in the SEC Championship game. The Tigers would probably leap frog a one loss Ohio State or Penn State. Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma play a series of games against each other that will create spots above LSU. I don’t know if the Tigers are good enough to win out, but if the Tigers can win this weekend, they will enter November with a legitimate shot to defend their title.

The Perfect Storm

These things happen.

A confluence of events creates what can best be described as a devastating football tsunami.

LSU got swept away by such a storm in the “Swamp” in Gainesville.

A few observations:

* LSU’s defense couldn’t get a stop. A harbinger of the night was Florida’s first third down. Gators are at their own 30 with a third and 12, next thing you know, Percy Harvin is in the endzone. Later in the first quarter, Florida had a third and goal at the LSU seven, and the Tiger secondary let Harvin run free underneath for an EASY TD catch.

*Where are the safeties? None of these guys are in the same league as LaRon Landry or Craig Steltz. After five games LSU has three picks. Last season the Tigers nabbed 23.

*Both lines got dominated. I know a few weeks ago I gushed about the O-line. But they did absolutely NOTHING. Scott had nowhere to run and Lee was under duress for much of the night. The defensive line was awful. The Gators ran for 280 yards while the front four failed to generate any sort of pass rush.

*I thought Lee did well. He is currently third in the SEC in passing efficiency. I know amongst the fans there is some grumbling but let’s be reasonable. Lee has started TWO games. TWO!! Considering LSU generated nothing on the ground, Lee was able to make a few plays after shaking off a slow start. He’s learning. Be patient. The guy can play.

*I liked how LSU fought back from 20 points down to get within six early in the third quarter. Florida took back control, but it is obvious LSU didn’t quit.

*The BIG question bubbling to the surface for me is in regards to the defense. Is it the players, or is it the absence of Bo Pelini? LSU has been giving up way to many yards and points this season. I don’t see any creativity in our blitz packages. Plus some of the match-ups we have defensively are curious to say the least. On Harvin’s TD’s, he was matched up on McCray and Beckwith respectively. Why not put a corner on him? He’s the Gator’s best player outside of Tebow and a definite go to guy. Les better figure it out fast or the Tigers will be in for a few more losses this season. Looking at the big picture, Miles has done very well with his coordinators thus far. I would like to think that he would look to bring someone in on the defensive side at the end of the year IF LSU does not improve as the season goes along.

*Florida came out and played their best game of the season on Saturday. The Gators are just as talented as LSU and are extremely tough at home. Meyer is 22-2 in the “Swamp.” (The two losses were by a combined four points.) The game had to be circled on the Gator’s calendar after last year’s heartbreaker in Tiger Stadium. Tebow has even said publicly that the loss at LSU last season was the toughest of his career. And just for a little perspective, Saban was only 2-3 versus Florida with the first two of the games in 2000 and 2001, ending in 32 and 29 point beat downs respectively. (Remember the “brook trout look” game?) Florida is only two years removed from a National Championship, has the defending Heisman Trophy winner, and with one loss already, in a must win situation.

And there you have a perfect storm, or in LSU’s case – a giant ass whipping.

On to next week.

The Tigers have not lost back-to-back games since the end of the 2002 season. (Arkansas to end the regular season and Texas in the Cotton Bowl) With Saturday’s loss, the Tigers are now 60-11 since 2003. What I am getting at is there is no reason to panic. Everyone needs to be patient and look for improvement. LSU lost a championship caliber core of leaders from last year’s squad, including Steltz, Dorsey, Flynn and Hester. Guys like that are not easily replaced.

South Carolina is every bit as good on defense as Florida, currently ranking third in the nation in total defense. But the Gamecocks offense is not even on the same planet as the Gators, currently ranking 74th in total offense. South Carolina has turned the ball over 20 times this season, nearly three a game. The LSU defense needs to keep that trend going and make a few big plays to help out the offense. Lee needs to take better care of the ball while the offensive line needs to open up a few running lanes. If LSU can run the ball, they will win. If they struggle on the ground as they did last week, no telling what will happen.

In 2003, the Tigers followed up a home loss to the Gators with a resounding thumping of the Gamecocks in Columbia. The Tigers reeled off eight straight and won it all that season. I doubt LSU duplicates that feat. But with games against Georgia and Alabama still to play, this is a must win if LSU hopes to make a return trip to Atlanta and a possible rematch against Saturday’s perfect storm.

LSU 27 – South Carolina 23

LSU v. Florida

I like how things are shaping up in the media for the LSU v. Florida game. No one is picking the Tigers to win and the spread is currently Florida by four. Please, tell the Tigers they have no chance. Talk about the unstoppable Tim Tebow. Gush about the scary and loud “Swamp.” While the talking heads may get this one right, the lack of meaningful analysis by the Sports MSM (main stream media) does fans a disservice. But that’s why you are here in the first place, to get the real story.

Lets look at a few numbers.

0 – the number of 4th quarter comebacks by Tim Tebow.

1- the number of 4th quarter comebacks by Jarrett Lee. Think about that for a moment. Tebow has won the Heisman, yet has never led his team to a 4th quarter comeback. Isn’t a comeback in a tight game with the pressure mounting on each play the epitome of “clutch?”

2 – The number of wins Les Miles has over Urban Meyer

3- Miles is 3-1 in games after the bye week with the only loss coming at the hands of Tennessee after Katrina

6 – In games decided by 6 points or less, Miles is an astounding 11-4 while Meyer comes in at a much more modest 5-4.

75.5 – Tebow’s efficiency rating from last year’s LSU game, the lowest of the season for him and nearly 100 points below his season average.

133.75 – Yards per game rushing for Charles Scott.

140.5 – Average yards rushing given up by the Gators in their last two games.

The match ups on the offensive and defensive line seem to favor LSU. Florida’s defensive line is solid, but LSU may have one of the best lines in the 115 years of the program. These guys have been road graters so far and look stronger every week. On the opposite side, Florida is banged up and has not been consistent protecting Tebow and generating a running game (UF is 41st in rushing offense). LSU’s defensive line has been very strong against the run (LSU is 8th in rushing defense) and their depth allows fresh players to take over in the 4th quarter.

Charles Scott has been an absolute stud and is looking for his 5th consecutive 100 yard game. He is the first LSU player since Charles Alexander in 1978 to start the season with four consecutive 100 yard games. If he is able to make it five and LSU comes out with a win, he will definitely move up the Heisman list.

LSU’s questions are at QB and the back seven of the defense. Lee has looked great the last six quarters, but he’s the same guy that looked very shaky in his first 10. My thought is this, if you can play as well as he did in the second half at Auburn, you can play ANYWHERE. It will be his first road start and I am sure he will be nervous. But with Scott and that offensive line leading the way, I think Crowton will come up with plenty of plays to keep Lee from making any killer mistakes.

As for the LB’s and secondary, look for a lot of crossing routes with Harvin matched up on a LB and a few deep throws by Tebow. I expect more blitzing in this game than we have seen from the Tigers because teams have had some success at getting after Tebow. The blown coverages by LSU's secondary have to end or Florida will put up big numbers.

At the beginning of the season, I picked this game as one of LSU’s two losses, the other being the Auburn game. As I look at the match ups and all the numbers I really, really like LSU this weekend. But the X factor is how well Lee holds up under pressure. He is a redshirt freshman in his first start on the road in a big conference showdown. For this reason alone, reluctantly, I am sticking with my thoughts from the pre-season.

LSU 20 – Florida 24


(Let’s all hope I get this one wrong as well. Geaux Tigers!!)

Tigers better wrap up just as they did last season.