Toothless Gator Defense?

While I think the Gators made a great hire in Urban Meyer, I am a bit confused by his retention of Charlie Strong as defensive coordinator. Much as Lou Tepper played a huge role getting Gerry DiNardo fired from LSU, Strong was instrumental in getting Ron Zook run out of Florida. Don’t believe me? These five games from 2003 and 2004 ruined any chance Ron Zook had to remain at Florida.

· (2003) Leading by 23 mid way through the 3rd quarter, the Gators go on to lose to Miami, 38-33. The canes scored with 1:44 left on the clock. The game winning drive lasted 4 minutes, taking 11 plays that covered 89 yards.
· (2003) Florida loses to Ole Miss at home 20-17 after allowing the Rebels to score the go ahead touchdown with 1:16 left in the game. The drive covered 50 yards over 8 plays and took over 4 minutes.
· (2003) On 4th and 14 with 55 seconds left to play, the Gators give up a 52 yard touchdown pass and lose to FSU 38-34.
· (2004) Tennessee kicks a game-winning 50-yard field goal with six seconds left, as the Volunteers defeat the Gators 30-28. Florida allowed UT to drive 28 yards in 5 plays in only 31 seconds to set up the game winning kick.
· (2004) LSU completes a 10-yard touchdown pass with 27 seconds remaining to lift the Tigers to a 24-21 victory over Florida. The final drive went 50 yards in 1:39 and took five plays.

Ultimately Ron Zook took the fall for these debacles but I think a great deal of the responsibility lies with Strong. I know Florida has had talented defensive players the last two years, but it seems they were unable to make stops when it counted.

The numbers don't lie. In 2003 the Gators were ranked 65th in run defense, 44th in pass defense, 51st in total defense and 28th in scoring defense. 2004 wasn’t much better as Florida was ranked 53rd in run defense, 46th in pass defense, 42nd in total defense and 31st in scoring defense.

As a comparison, the last three SEC Champs finished 1st in the SEC in scoring defense, with Auburn and LSU finishing first in the nation in that category. (Georgia finished 4th nationally in 2002) All three also finished in the top 15 nationally in total defense. (Auburn 5th, LSU 1st, UGA 15th) The recent trend appears to favor teams with great defenses. Florida will need one to win a very tough SEC.

Bucking the Trend

The SEC held its Media Days this week and the press picked Tennessee to win the SEC East and the SEC Championship. At first glance this seems a solid pick, but I looked a little deeper at the winners of the SEC Championship Game over the last 10 years and found an interesting common denominator among the former Champions, experience at the quarterback position. Of the 10 SEC Champs since 1995, half were led by senior QB’s (Wuerffel in ’96, Manning in ’97, Martin in ’98, Davey in ’01 and Campbell in ’04). Two Juniors captured titles (Wuerffel in ’95 and Mauck in ’03), as did two red-shirt sophomores (Zow in ’99 and Greene in ’02) and finally one red-shirt freshman (Grossman in ’00).

What does this all mean? Only one team won the SEC with a second year player as the quarterback, Florida in 2000 with Rex Grossman. Who is Tennessee’s starting QB this season? True sophomore Eric Ainge will be under center when UT opens up at home versus UAB. Senior Rick Clausen took over last season after Ainge went down with a shoulder injury and played well capping off the 2004 season with a big win over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. But it appears that Ainge is the clear #1. If Ainge remains the starter, the Vols will be bucking history in their quest for their first SEC Championship since 1998.

2005 LSU Preview

Expectations are great. No, really.

Fan interest is high. The stadium is full every Saturday night. Excitement surrounds the program. The Talking Heads are singing your praises.

Just don’t lose.

Don’t lose to Arizona State.
Don’t lose to Tennessee.
Don’t lose to Florida.
Don’t lose to Auburn.

And for God’s sakes man don’t lose to the likes of Mississippi State!

Expectations are great…as long as you don’t stumble.

LSU will be far from stumbling through the 2005 season. The Tigers are loaded and have the potential to make a run at an SEC Title and possible National Title. But to do so, the QB position must be a source of stability. For most of 2004, LSU fans covered their eyes as Randall and Russell flopped around from game to game. One week’s hero was next week’s goat. That can not happen this year if LSU is to have any chance of making a legitimate run at the Rose Bowl.

The entire offensive line is back and is joined by a bevy or returning players at the skill positions including Skyler Green, Craig Davis, Alley Broussard and Mr. Everything, Joseph Addai. If the pieces fall together, this could be the most prolific offense in LSU history. In 1969, the Tigers averaged a gaudy 34.9 points a game. While the 2005 Tigers will not be that prolific, look for LSU to put up BIG numbers throughout the season.

I am VERY curious to see LSU’s new defense. Seven starters return for new defensive coordinator, Bo Pelini. Pelini spent 2004 as co-defensive coordinator at Oklahoma and 2003 as defensive coordinator of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Pelini's 2003 Nebraska defense led the nation in pass efficiency defense (88.66 rating), ranked No. 2 in scoring defense (14.5 points per game), was No. 11 in passing yards per game (177.8 yards per game), and No. 11 in total defense (297.2 yards per game).

The defensive line is in great hands and is led by Kyle Williams. The linebacking corps and secondary will see new faces but there is plenty of talent returning with All-SEC Safety LaRon Landry leading the way.

Can Les Miles pull a Larry Coker? Can he win it all in his first year?

Yes and yes.

Miles and LSU can, but I don’t think they will. The Tigers will finish a fantastic 10-1. LSU will make a return trip to the SEC Championship, but a great regular season with a single blemish will not be enough to play in Pasadena. Who will serve as that sole loss? I have no idea. Last year I nailed the season picking LSU to go 9-2 and lose to Auburn and Georgia. This season I am not nearly as confident. There are a number of tough tests in 2005 that could derail the Tigers. But I expect a great deal of success and another SEC West title.

Finally, I want to dedicate this season’s Hit Parade to a wonderful person who is very close to me and the Traylor Clan. Our prayers will be with you all season.

Bitterness be Gone!!

I think it is fair to say that the end of the 2004 LSU football season sucked. Not the whole season mind you, just the ass end of a promising season that was derailed in early October. As the season played out, that ridiculous penalty against LSU in the Auburn game loomed larger and larger. Now there was no guarantee that LSU would have won that game, but…had LSU survived overtime and finished 10-1, the Tigers would have made their third appearance in four years in the SEC Championship.

What if…what if…what if!

Saban’s departure was inevitable and only a matter of time. While I was not as upset as some other folks, his announcement definitely put a damper on Christmas. The Capital One Bowl was a stinker for the first three quarters before the Tigers woke up only to give up a last second hail-mary to the Hawkeyes. (Remember UK in ’02? What goes around comes around…blah, blah, blah.)

Good riddance to 2004!

Hello 2005!!

Tigers Rose Bowl Bound??????

College Football News has LSU and USC playing for the 2005 National Championship in the Grand Daddy of them all. Click here for more.

SEC West Preview

The Georgia Dome will see Tigers again this season, but look for Tigers of a different stripe. LSU will return for its 3^rd visit in 5 years to the SEC Championship. The schedule is brutal but the toughest games are at home. The rest of the West is a big jumble. Folks are hyping Alabama but I’m not buying it. The Tide are one or two injuries away from a poor season. Starting THREE freshmen on the O-Line will leave Croyle at the mercy of nasty SEC defensive linemen. Auburn is reloading while Arkansas brings back almost everyone. Ole Miss and Mississippi State will fight it out for the cellar.

We could squabble about rankings but very little separates the top four teams in the West. I think Houston Nutt will get the Hogs back to a bowl game while Ole Miss will sink closer to the bottom. The Rebels made a mistake by replacing David Cutcliff in the off-season and I can assure you, Johnny Vaught is not walking thru that door.

SEC East Preview

The days of beating up on the Mighty Gators are over. If you haven’t gotten your licks in yet (this means you UGA), then don’t expect to get them in now. Urban Meyer will return Florida to the lofty perch it assumed under Steve Spurrier. The Gators are loaded on both sides of the ball and anything less than a BCS birth (at least in my mind) would be a disappointment. Everyone is picking Tennessee but I am not sold. Rocky Top plays at Florida and then the next week at LSU in a brutal early road trip. The Vols then play at Alabama and have to sandwich in a game at Notre Dame late in the season. The bottom line with Georgia is I do not believe in senior QB D.J. Shockley. Do you think the Dawgs are better than last year after losing David Greene, Reggie Brown and Fred Gibson, Thomas Davis, Odell Thurman, and David Pollack? Yeah, me either.


I admit it, I love Spurrier. He brings flair and panache to the game. He runs smack and throws the ball deep up by four TD’s late in the game. Alas, he doesn’t have the players this year and may never get them. The Gamecocks will run up some mean scores the next few years, just not this season. Vandy is….well….Vandy. Don’t even get me started on UK. Hiring Rich Brooks was just plain stupid and the AD should get fired for it.

SEC 2005 Forecast

East

1. Florida
2. Tennessee
3. Georgia
4. South Carolina
5. Vanderbilt
6. Kentucky

West

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Auburn
4. Arkansas
5. Ole Miss
6. Mississippi State