We don't Rebuild, we Reload

Since 2003, LSU has finished every season in the top three nationally in total defense. Think about it, for five consecutive years, the Tiger’s defense was statistically one of the best in the nation.

Oh how we have stumbled. LSU now ranks 35th in the country and has given up 50 points twice in the same season for the first time in 115 years of football. LSU’s opponents’ scoring average is 25.9 points a game and is the highest since the Curly Hallman years. Admittedly, the number is a bit skewed by Lee’s ability to throw pick 6’s, but even taking those scores away the Tigers are giving up over 21 points a game.

So what’s the problem?

In my humble opinion, a combination of poor coaching, poor execution and a lack of leadership are to blame.

With respect to the coaches, based on the seven games we have seen so far, Miles made a mistake in failing to look outside of his staff for a defensive coordinator. Players look out of position at times and coverages are getting blown with alarming frequency. The defense only has seven take aways and big plays have been very rare.

The defensive line is not the rock it has been the last few seasons as the loss of Dorsey and Alexander’s inability to return to pre injury form have hurt the Tigers. Throw in François’ injury to the mix as well and the lack of productivity is not surprising.

At the linebacker position, Beckwith may still be battling a knee injury and Kelvin Shepard is really struggling to make plays. There is no real depth so the staff is a bit hamstrung, but I would like to see Ryan Baker get a little playing time. This group is extremely weak in comparison to past years.

The secondary has struggled all season. We have seen very few interceptions or big plays out of the group. Craig Steltz was a real leader in the back and a guy who had a great feel for the position. He regularly laid guys out and had a knack for picking off passes.

LSU misses Dorsey, Steltz, Highsmith, Zenon and Jackson on the defensive side of the ball. These were great players and more importantly great leaders. I think it is fair to say that LSU has an average defense this season. They are certainly good enough to compete with most of the SEC, but not nearly good enough to compete for 60 minutes with the likes of Florida or Georgia.

The last six games of the season will be telling. If Mallory is able to right the ship, Miles would be justified in giving him another season handling the defense. But if LSU doesn’t improve on that side of the ball, Miles will have to make some changes on that staff if he hopes to maintain LSU’s status as an elite program. I’m not ready to throw Mallory under the bus, but the engine is running.

A few other observations:

*The officiating left a lot to be desired. A face mask no call and a no call on a pass interference that was deemed a tip at the line in the first half did not help at all.

*Georgia’s #9, Reshad Jones (S) is going to see Charles Scott in his sleep. Scott ran over and around Jones numerous times on Saturday.

*After watching the game on TV I feel a little better about how LSU played. Georgia is an excellent team and LSU refused to go away. I am optimistic about the continued development of the offense.

*I still like Lee as LSU’s quarterback. But it is not as if LSU has a lot of choices. Hatch is not going to win you many football games. He is limited in so many ways that at this point, I don’t see any meaningful benefit in playing him. Jefferson is too inexperienced to start, but now may be the time to get him in the game. He can do the running that Hatch can do and with his athleticism, he has plenty of potential.

*On Saturday, Georgia’s quarterback, Matthew Stafford, was fantastic, but in his freshman season he threw seven TD’s and 13 INT’s. Keep that in mind in evaluating Lee. He has been essentially thrown to the wolves and has shown signs of bumping up against the SEC’s steep learning curve. The coaches need to work with him and craft a passing regime that works to his strength and keeps him away from any more pick 6’s. If he can master the mental side of the game, he can become a very special player.

*I’ve harped on this before, but you cannot understate the importance of senior leadership at the quarterback position. Look at the SEC’s Champions since the inception of the title game:

2007 – LSU – senior Matt Flynn
2006 – Florida – senior Chris Leak
2005 – Georgia – senior DJ Shockley
2004 – Auburn – senior Jason Campbell
2001 – LSU – senior Rohan Davey
1998 – Tennessee – senior Tee Martin
1997 – Tennessee – senior Peyton Manning
1996 – Florida – senior Danny Wuerffel
1992 – Alabama – senior Jay Barker

This season, Alabama is lead by senior John Parker Wilson. Would you bet against Saban in the SEC Championship?

Tigers get Cocky

This was a huge win.

I know South Carolina is not one of the elite teams in the SEC, but winning at their place was a giant boost for the Tigers. Now at 5-1, the Tigers will play Georgia to keep pace with Alabama in the West.

A few observations from Saturday:

*Defense looked much better. Not great, but much, much better. The Tigers sacked Garcia six times, picked up two fumbles and Curtis Taylor came up with a great pick after the Tigers went up late. Tyson Jackson looked like an NFL first rounder as LSU’s “Express” package gave South Carolina fits. Reminded me a bit of the “Bandit” package LSU used against Florida in ’97 by then defensive coordinator Carl Reese. Part of this may have been due to injuries as François and Alexander were out and Nevis hurt his ankle in the first half. Blitzes were coming from a number of directions as the hits on Garcia wore him down and created big plays for LSU. Kudos go out to Coach Mallory. The Tigers held the Gamecocks to 42 yards in the second half as the play calling was more aggressive than it has been all year. That’s about as impressive a performance as you are going to see.

*Lee made some very nice throws, but he has got to stay away from these killer interceptions. His completion percentage is strong and will continue to get better. He now has five straight home games after cutting his teeth in some of the toughest stadiums in the country. I think Lee is doing just fine.

*The “local village idiot,” also more commonly known as Richard Condon, has been showing his ass on the radio. He rips Lee and supports his argument by asking with a skeptical tone, “do you believe if LSU was down with two minutes left that he can move down the field and win the game?” Uh, you mean like when he threw the game winning pass on the road at Auburn with 1:03 left on the clock? Idiot.

*Hats off to Coach Miles. I think he is underrated and unappreciated by the national media. You don’t hear his name mentioned with some other upper echelon coaches, but just look at what he has done at Oklahoma State and now LSU. He has an 84.8% winning record at LSU with two appearances in the SEC title game, an SEC title, two BCS Bowl wins and a National Championship. He is now 7-0 after a loss while at LSU and has a gaudy 11-4 record in SEC road games.

*The BCS…Fear not Tiger fans, LSU comes in at #13 in the BCS standings but there is plenty of time and plenty of games for the Tigers to climb the polls. LSU plays Georgia and Alabama and would get a rematch with Florida (most likely) in the SEC Championship game. The Tigers would probably leap frog a one loss Ohio State or Penn State. Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma play a series of games against each other that will create spots above LSU. I don’t know if the Tigers are good enough to win out, but if the Tigers can win this weekend, they will enter November with a legitimate shot to defend their title.

The Perfect Storm

These things happen.

A confluence of events creates what can best be described as a devastating football tsunami.

LSU got swept away by such a storm in the “Swamp” in Gainesville.

A few observations:

* LSU’s defense couldn’t get a stop. A harbinger of the night was Florida’s first third down. Gators are at their own 30 with a third and 12, next thing you know, Percy Harvin is in the endzone. Later in the first quarter, Florida had a third and goal at the LSU seven, and the Tiger secondary let Harvin run free underneath for an EASY TD catch.

*Where are the safeties? None of these guys are in the same league as LaRon Landry or Craig Steltz. After five games LSU has three picks. Last season the Tigers nabbed 23.

*Both lines got dominated. I know a few weeks ago I gushed about the O-line. But they did absolutely NOTHING. Scott had nowhere to run and Lee was under duress for much of the night. The defensive line was awful. The Gators ran for 280 yards while the front four failed to generate any sort of pass rush.

*I thought Lee did well. He is currently third in the SEC in passing efficiency. I know amongst the fans there is some grumbling but let’s be reasonable. Lee has started TWO games. TWO!! Considering LSU generated nothing on the ground, Lee was able to make a few plays after shaking off a slow start. He’s learning. Be patient. The guy can play.

*I liked how LSU fought back from 20 points down to get within six early in the third quarter. Florida took back control, but it is obvious LSU didn’t quit.

*The BIG question bubbling to the surface for me is in regards to the defense. Is it the players, or is it the absence of Bo Pelini? LSU has been giving up way to many yards and points this season. I don’t see any creativity in our blitz packages. Plus some of the match-ups we have defensively are curious to say the least. On Harvin’s TD’s, he was matched up on McCray and Beckwith respectively. Why not put a corner on him? He’s the Gator’s best player outside of Tebow and a definite go to guy. Les better figure it out fast or the Tigers will be in for a few more losses this season. Looking at the big picture, Miles has done very well with his coordinators thus far. I would like to think that he would look to bring someone in on the defensive side at the end of the year IF LSU does not improve as the season goes along.

*Florida came out and played their best game of the season on Saturday. The Gators are just as talented as LSU and are extremely tough at home. Meyer is 22-2 in the “Swamp.” (The two losses were by a combined four points.) The game had to be circled on the Gator’s calendar after last year’s heartbreaker in Tiger Stadium. Tebow has even said publicly that the loss at LSU last season was the toughest of his career. And just for a little perspective, Saban was only 2-3 versus Florida with the first two of the games in 2000 and 2001, ending in 32 and 29 point beat downs respectively. (Remember the “brook trout look” game?) Florida is only two years removed from a National Championship, has the defending Heisman Trophy winner, and with one loss already, in a must win situation.

And there you have a perfect storm, or in LSU’s case – a giant ass whipping.

On to next week.

The Tigers have not lost back-to-back games since the end of the 2002 season. (Arkansas to end the regular season and Texas in the Cotton Bowl) With Saturday’s loss, the Tigers are now 60-11 since 2003. What I am getting at is there is no reason to panic. Everyone needs to be patient and look for improvement. LSU lost a championship caliber core of leaders from last year’s squad, including Steltz, Dorsey, Flynn and Hester. Guys like that are not easily replaced.

South Carolina is every bit as good on defense as Florida, currently ranking third in the nation in total defense. But the Gamecocks offense is not even on the same planet as the Gators, currently ranking 74th in total offense. South Carolina has turned the ball over 20 times this season, nearly three a game. The LSU defense needs to keep that trend going and make a few big plays to help out the offense. Lee needs to take better care of the ball while the offensive line needs to open up a few running lanes. If LSU can run the ball, they will win. If they struggle on the ground as they did last week, no telling what will happen.

In 2003, the Tigers followed up a home loss to the Gators with a resounding thumping of the Gamecocks in Columbia. The Tigers reeled off eight straight and won it all that season. I doubt LSU duplicates that feat. But with games against Georgia and Alabama still to play, this is a must win if LSU hopes to make a return trip to Atlanta and a possible rematch against Saturday’s perfect storm.

LSU 27 – South Carolina 23

LSU v. Florida

I like how things are shaping up in the media for the LSU v. Florida game. No one is picking the Tigers to win and the spread is currently Florida by four. Please, tell the Tigers they have no chance. Talk about the unstoppable Tim Tebow. Gush about the scary and loud “Swamp.” While the talking heads may get this one right, the lack of meaningful analysis by the Sports MSM (main stream media) does fans a disservice. But that’s why you are here in the first place, to get the real story.

Lets look at a few numbers.

0 – the number of 4th quarter comebacks by Tim Tebow.

1- the number of 4th quarter comebacks by Jarrett Lee. Think about that for a moment. Tebow has won the Heisman, yet has never led his team to a 4th quarter comeback. Isn’t a comeback in a tight game with the pressure mounting on each play the epitome of “clutch?”

2 – The number of wins Les Miles has over Urban Meyer

3- Miles is 3-1 in games after the bye week with the only loss coming at the hands of Tennessee after Katrina

6 – In games decided by 6 points or less, Miles is an astounding 11-4 while Meyer comes in at a much more modest 5-4.

75.5 – Tebow’s efficiency rating from last year’s LSU game, the lowest of the season for him and nearly 100 points below his season average.

133.75 – Yards per game rushing for Charles Scott.

140.5 – Average yards rushing given up by the Gators in their last two games.

The match ups on the offensive and defensive line seem to favor LSU. Florida’s defensive line is solid, but LSU may have one of the best lines in the 115 years of the program. These guys have been road graters so far and look stronger every week. On the opposite side, Florida is banged up and has not been consistent protecting Tebow and generating a running game (UF is 41st in rushing offense). LSU’s defensive line has been very strong against the run (LSU is 8th in rushing defense) and their depth allows fresh players to take over in the 4th quarter.

Charles Scott has been an absolute stud and is looking for his 5th consecutive 100 yard game. He is the first LSU player since Charles Alexander in 1978 to start the season with four consecutive 100 yard games. If he is able to make it five and LSU comes out with a win, he will definitely move up the Heisman list.

LSU’s questions are at QB and the back seven of the defense. Lee has looked great the last six quarters, but he’s the same guy that looked very shaky in his first 10. My thought is this, if you can play as well as he did in the second half at Auburn, you can play ANYWHERE. It will be his first road start and I am sure he will be nervous. But with Scott and that offensive line leading the way, I think Crowton will come up with plenty of plays to keep Lee from making any killer mistakes.

As for the LB’s and secondary, look for a lot of crossing routes with Harvin matched up on a LB and a few deep throws by Tebow. I expect more blitzing in this game than we have seen from the Tigers because teams have had some success at getting after Tebow. The blown coverages by LSU's secondary have to end or Florida will put up big numbers.

At the beginning of the season, I picked this game as one of LSU’s two losses, the other being the Auburn game. As I look at the match ups and all the numbers I really, really like LSU this weekend. But the X factor is how well Lee holds up under pressure. He is a redshirt freshman in his first start on the road in a big conference showdown. For this reason alone, reluctantly, I am sticking with my thoughts from the pre-season.

LSU 20 – Florida 24


(Let’s all hope I get this one wrong as well. Geaux Tigers!!)

Tigers better wrap up just as they did last season.

Good...Bad

Good…The Contenders – Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Alabama, Penn State, UConn, Northwestern, LSU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, South Florida, Ball State, BYU, Utah, Vanderbilt, Tulsa and Boise State.

Bad…Poser Material – USC, Florida, Colorado, Minnesota, Weak Forest, Nebraska, Georgia, Wisconsin, and TCU

Good…LSU is now 8-3 versus Top 10 teams under Les Miles. The Tigers have now won six in a row versus the Top 10.

Bad…Coaches in for a Long Season – (1) Sylvester Croom at MSU is now 1-4 and looking at the possibility of a three or four win season. (2) Greg Robinson at Syracuse will probably get the boot at the end of the season. (3) Mike Sherman at A&M will be lucky to win five games. (4) Spur Dog at South Carolina may want to hang up his visor by the time the season ends. (5) Fat Phil Fulmer is 14-14 in his last 28 SEC games. And this decade, the Vols are just 1-8 at home against Top 10 teams and 17-24 against all nationally ranked teams.

Good…JoePa has taken the lead in all time wins with 377.

Bad…Bobby Bowden’s star is quickly fading. The only question is how low will the Noles sink.

Good…You heard it here before the season started, the Mighty Spartans would contend in the Big 11. Javon Ringer is a STUD.

Bad…Big reality check for Notre Dame. The Domers schedule is putrid so six wins is not unrealistic. (Strength of schedule currently ranks 71st)

Good…The Shield is in its final season and it fantastic as ever.

Bad…The Wire (from HBO) ended after five seasons. One of the best cop shows EVER.

Good…Upset City. Makes Saturdays fun because you NEVER know what is going to happen.

Bad…Mentally weak teams…I’m talking to you USC. Winning championships begins with mental toughness and focus. Something the Trojans have lacked against less talented teams the past few years.

First Quarter Grades

First quarter grades are out and a few students have moved to the head of the class leaving others hoping we grade on a curve.

SEC West

Alabama

Grade (A+) – After crushing Georgia in Athens there is no doubt that Bama has moved to the head of the class.

Arkansas

Grade (D) – Two last minute wins over bad teams and two absolute beat downs at the hands of Bama and Texas.

Auburn

Grade (B+) – Auburn’s defense is fantastic, but the offense has a way to go.

LSU

Grade (A) – The only reason not an A+ is the QB position and secondary are works in progress.

MSU

Grade (D) - The Bulldogs have been TERRIBLE this season. 1-4 and not much hope for many more wins.

Ole Miss

Grade (C+) – This may be a little harsh as the Rebels failed a big test at home versus Vanderbilt but came back the next week and won in the Swamp. Go figure.


SEC East

Florida

Grade (B) – Dominant on both sides of the ball until Saturday. This team has a way to go to win the SEC East.

Georgia

Grade (B-) – Bulldogs were down 31-0 at half at home. Elite teams don’t let that happen.

Tennessee

Grade (D) – Lost to a terrible UCLA team and looked helpless and sloppy against the Gators and Tigers.

Kentucky

Grade (A-) – Hard to argue with being 4-0.

South Carolina

Grade (C) – Looked respectable against Georgia, but unimpressive otherwise.

Vanderbilt

Grade (A-) – Probably to best Vandy team in 25 years. Dores ranked last in SEC in total offense and total defense but first in the nation in turnover margin.

A Star is Born

Wow! Of all the comebacks we’ve seen from the Tigers over the years, this one seemed the most unlikely.

At the end of the first half I had uncharacteristically given up hope. LSU had a grand total of 16 yards passing and Lee looked completely overwhelmed. The pick six he threw had me jumping out of my chair despite my limited mobility. The offensive play calling had me baffled. LSU had 13 first down plays in the half and ran 13 times. Trindon Holliday fumbled two punts and ended up getting pulled. On the positive side, the defense looked great and the punting game was solid.

Ah…but what a second half. Hatch gets knocked out and all the sudden A STAR IS BORN. Lee was brilliant in the second half. He was 11 for 17, 183 yards and 2 TD’s in the final 23 minutes of the game. Amazing. I’ll admit, at half time I was saying all sorts of nasty things about Lee and was convinced he shouldn’t see the field again. But Lee showed real maturity and grit. He should start next week. He has shown he can play in one of the toughest environments in the country and thrive. He has earned his right to start.

As sketchy as the play calling was in the first half, the second half was fantastic. The onside kick, the half back pass and the clincher, the short pass to LaFell for the go ahead touchdown were brilliant. As always, Miles is playing to win, and fans cannot ask for any more.

I think LSU has also found an identity on offense. The Tigers are a power running team that can pass the ball effectively enough to avoid being one dimensional. LSU’s defense is as strong as anyone in the country and special teams are really rounding into form. The defensive line is extremely deep and that freshness shows in the fourth quarter. The overall speed in the defense is amazing as well. After Saturday’s performance, LSU must be considered a legitimate National Title contender.

House of Horrors (Redux)

Since the inception of divisional play, LSU is 2-6 when playing at Auburn. The Tigers have dropped the last 4 dating back to 2000. In those four games, the Tigers are averaging 9 points a contest. Most of the losses have been of the gut wrenching type.

1992: LSU rallies from a deep deficit on the arm of Jamie Howard to take a 28-27 lead. Curley plays prevent defense and Auburn moves down the field and kicks a game winning FG. Au 30 – LSU 28

1994: The Interception Game. Jamie Howard throws 3 pick-6’s as LSU blows a game they dominated all afternoon. AU 30 – LSU 26

2000: Rudy Johnson pounds on LSU. AU 34 – LSU 17

2002: Auburn dominates LSU as Marcus Randall struggles. AU 31 – LSU 7

2004: Classic game decided by a missed XP and a bogus penalty on LSU. Auburn converted on a 4th and long on the game winning drive. Then missed the XP after tying the score at 9-9. But a flag was thrown on LSU for landing on another player and Auburn was allowed to re-kick. I have NEVER seen that penalty called in 25 years of watching football. AU 10 – LSU 9

2006: Another classic marred by the officials. Down 7-3, LSU throws deep on 4th and long. Early Doucet is mugged around the goal line and the ball is tipped away. The ref closest to the play throws a flag but is overruled in an absolutely TERRIBLE call. AU 7 – LSU 3.

At the beginning of the season, I picked Auburn to win the SEC West on the strength of this particular game being played in Jordan-Hare Stadium. As mentioned above, LSU has struggled mightily at Auburn with the only wins in ’96 (A Barn Burner – literally- the barn next to the stadium burned down as huge clouds of smoked billowed up throughout most of the game) and ’98 (Bowden was fired a few games later as Auburn finished 3-8 that season).

Auburn’s offense is putrid, but LSU’s QB’s are a giant question mark. Jordan-Hare can get just as loud as Tiger Stadium and I guarantee the place will be crazy all night.Miles has said that both Hatch and Lee will play. He’s looked erratic while playing in the friendly and calm confines of Tiger Stadium against seriously outmatched opponents. In Marcus Randall’s first road start in ’02 (at Auburn) he threw four picks.I don’t think you will see as many mistakes from Hatch and Lee, but the difference in these games has been razor thin. The last four games have been decided by a total of 14 points.

LSU’s running game and special teams will be the key. If Charles Scott and company can pound the ball and Holliday can come up with one great return, LSU can get their first road win in this series in 10 years.

I hope I am wrong, but I think Auburn will do just enough to squeak by LSU 13-12.

Random Musings

*Part of the problem with the 24/7 sports news cycle is the constant overreaction to whatever is happening right now. For instance, Tom Brady goes out and the Patriots season is OVER. They have no hope and there really is no need to play the rest of the season. We’ve seen this in college football in multiple forms. The biggest one so far is:

“THE ACC IS TERRIBLE. THERE IS NO HOPE FOR THE CONFERENCE. THEY MIGHT AS WELL STOP PLAYING FOOTBALL ALL TOGETHER.”

This “irrefutable” fact was clear after only two weeks.

Oh but wait. Maybe the talking heads got it wrong. Just this weekend, Maryland hammered Cal, UNC destroyed Rutgers and even lowly Duke beat Navy. Everyone, especially the media, needs to cool out and let the season progress just a little before making blanket generalizations.

*Having said that, is there any doubt that USC will win its seventh consecutive Pac-10 title? The rest of the league with the exception of USC, Oregon and Oregon State went out this week and laid an egg. Cal lost at Maryland, Wazzu lost at Baylor, Arizona lost at New Mexico, Stanford lost at TCU, Arizona State lost at home to UNLV, and Washington was bombed out at home by Oklahoma. Did I mention that UCLA lost 59-0 to BYU? All the talk about a resurgent Pac-10 may be a little premature.

*What can you make of Auburn’s thrilling 3-2 win over Mississippi State? I think it is fair to say that both offenses are putrid. If LSU can get to 17 points they can win. The problem is the Tigers have scored a grand total of 19 points in their last three trips to the Plains.

*I think the Big 11 is wide open this season. Ohio State is the most talented team, but without Beanie Wells the Suckeyes are missing a key cog to Tressel Ball, i.e., a strong ground game, solid defense and special teams. Penn State has crushed three outmatched teams so far, Wisconsin passed a major road test winning at Fresno State, Northwestern is 3-0 (seriously!) and the Mighty Spartans are looking good. Plus OSU lost to Illinois last season.

*Mizzu and Oklahoma are cruising toward a titanic showdown in the Big 12 Championship. I know there are a ton of games to play, but both of these schools look overwhelming on offense. The Big 12 and SEC will be a lot of fun to watch this season.

*Don’t look now, but Butch Davis has UNC on the right track. It will only be a matter of time before the Tar Heels become a dominant force in the ACC.

*Vandy baby!! 3-0 with a legitimate shot to make a bowl this season.

*All the Notre Dame loonies will put way too much stock in the Domers 2-0 start. If not for SIX Michigan turnovers, the game would probably have been much different. Reality check this weekend, if ND beats the Spartans in East Lansing, I will publicly flog myself for being such a hater.

*Based strictly on winning percentages, Georgia’s schedule is ranked 2nd toughest in the country. LSU logs in at 37th.

Week 2 with no LSU

With LSU off I got to see a lot of football this Saturday. A few observations:

· Notre Dame is only marginally better than last season. Good thing the schedule is so weak. Six wins would be an accomplishment.

· Ole Miss looked very good at Wake Forest. They will be tough all season. Having said that, I was glad they got beat late. My loyalty to the SEC only goes so far.

· The unsportsmanlike penalty after Washington scored with :02 seconds left in the game may be the WORST call I have ever seen. I’m not exaggerating about this. Washington’s QB Jake Locker had just scored on a QB draw and threw the ball up over his shoulder. Penalty. The XP was essentially a 34 yard FG which BYU blocked.

· BYU, Utah, East Carolina and possibly Fresno State may make the BCS Buster race the most competitive since the inception of the BCS 10 years ago.

· Ohio State was TOTALLY looking ahead to USC next week. The Suckeyes will bring a much stronger effort next week. Just watch.

· Tyrone Willingham and Greg Robinson will be fired this season. Bank on it.

· Look at Vandy. Great win at home versus South Carolina. If the Dores can go 4-6 the rest of the season they will make a bowl game.

· Hmmm….Bama had a total of 38 yards of offense in the first half against Tulane. 172 yards for the entire game. Let’s hold off on the SEC Title talk.

· Georgia better get ready for that trip to the desert in a few weeks. Arizona State is going to give the Dawgs a real challenge.

· Michigan State looks strong. I know Spartan Brian isn’t drinking the Kool-Aid yet. But he will be by the end of the season.

I'll have my thoughts on LSU later this week. See you then.

-Prowler

Ugly Loses from Week 1

There were a few UGLY loses last weekend that will make some coaching seats even hotter.

· Pitt losing at home to Bowling Green. Are you kidding me? This was a team that was going to contend for the Big East title?
· Texas A&M loses at home to Arkansas State. Oh my. Notice the trend? Two former NFL coaches lay eggs in the season opener. I’m not sure which loss is worse.
· Washington gets beat by 34 at Oregon. It looks like Willingham is done.
· Mississippi State loses in Ruston to Louisiana Tech. So much for the Bulldogs turning the corner.
· Virginia Tech goes down to East Carolina by five, ironically enough after giving up a blocked punt late in the fourth quarter.

Battle of Champions

LSU looked very sharp to start the 2008 season. The half time score was 31-0 and LSU could have won 60-0 had they kept their foot on the pedal. But the Tigers treated the second half as a scrimmage and worked on a passing game that is still developing. The same could be said about the defense. LSU completely dominated Armanti Edwards and the ASU offense. Only after multiple substitutions which resulted in a few blown coverages in LSU’s secondary did ASU move the ball in the second half.

A few other observations:

· Both lines looked VERY GOOD. But we won’t REALLY know anything for sure until after the Auburn game.

· CB Patrick Peterson is the real deal. Rated the #1 CB coming out of high school last season, he looked ready for the big time.

· I liked Hatch. He doesn’t have a gun, but he’s not going to kill you and his decision making looked good.

· I thought Lee struggled a bit. At times he looked a little confused and he threw an ugly pick which led to three points by ASU. He looked like a red-shirt freshman playing in his first college game.

· LSU came out ready to play which is a credit to the staff. The Tigers were focused and put the game out of reach by halftime.

· Did you notice that Jordan Jefferson didn’t see the field? All the talk about him playing amounts to a bunch of nothing.

· I liked the blitzing by the defense. But the mental errors need to stop. WAY too many blown coverages when LSU blitzed.

I listened to the radio briefly on the ride home. Jimmy Ott uttered the dumbest line of the day in saying, “there’s no need to press the panic button yet, but…” He was referencing the QB play in his comment. Say what?! Panic button? Then he went on to lament the loss of Ryan Perillioux. As most of you know, I can’t stand Ott. Stupid comments like that just reinforce my opinion.

Needless to say, there is no panic in the Hit Parade camp. The Tigers look to improve in week two against a Troy team that managed only 300 yards of offense against Middle Tennessee State in week one. LSU will roll once again and get plenty of playing time for the young guys.

LSU 37 - Troy 10

Fan Day

Two of the finest minds in Baton Rouge...

A Few Random Off Season Thoughts

While sitting at home battling a stomach bug acquired from my oldest son, I had a chance to catch the season premier of ESPN’s College Football Live. Not to be petty, but during the opening highlights of the show, the defending National Champions appeared only ONCE for a grand total of half a second. On top of that, LSU was only mentioned once, during a segment on…Ohio State. Furthermore, ESPN has an on-line voting bracket for the “best college helmet.” LSU did not even make it into the contest. (click here)

Here is a nice composite of the preseason polls.

The three biggest things I look at in the preseason are schedule, returning offensive and defensive linemen and quarterback, in that order. I don’t think it is any mystery why LSU has won the SEC West in every odd numbered year since 2001.

You have got to wonder how long JoePa will be around. Things are looking pretty ugly. (click here)

With every new arrest and suspension, I’m wondering more and more about Georgia’s chances this season. (click here)

I think the Olympics should be divided into to two categories, Natural Humans and Chemically Enhanced Superhumans. That way if you want to use HGH or Roids or whatever, have at it. If you want to stay clean, you can compete in the group with the non-juiced athletes. As it is now, I’m more curious about who gets busted than who wins.

I am SOOOOOO sick of the slobbering over Brett Favre. ESPN was WAY over the top in the coverage.

I like Ohio State and Oklahoma in the BCS title game. I think the Buckeyes will win at USC and Oklahoma is going to lose only one game at most. Georgia's schedule is too tough and USC will lose one other game.

Some readers have expressed to me their doubts about Georgia in the SEC East. I understand the hesitancy, but Florida's defense wasn't very good last year and with Florida TE Ingram gone for the season with a torn ACL, all the pressure goes back to Tebow and Percy Harvin.

2008 SEC Preview

For four years in a row, senior quarterbacks have led their teams to the SEC title. (2007 - Matt Flynn, LSU; 2006 - Chris Leak, Florida; 2005 - DJ Shockley, Georgia; 2004 - Jason Campbell, Auburn) But things will be different this year. Only three teams, Alabama, Arkansas and Vanderbilt have senior signal callers. Of that trio, only Bama has a realistic shot of even making the SEC Title game. So which young buck is going to break the streak and bring home a title?


SEC West

1. Auburn
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Mississippi State
5. Ole Miss
6. Arkansas


The only reason I like Auburn this season is the annual Tiger Tussle will be played on the Plains of Auburn. The home team has won every game in the series since 2000. (that’s 8 in a row for our mathematically challenged readers) Young quarterbacks, in this case most probably LSU's freshman Jarrett Lee, can expect to struggle on the road. The last four games have been decided by a total of 14 points and this should be another close contest. Since the inception of the championship game, the loser of this game has NEVER gone on to play for the SEC Title.

Alabama is a big wild card this season. John Parker Wilson is their senior quarterback and we all know what Saban can do on the defensive side of the ball. The problem is the schedule. The Tide play road games at Arkansas, at Georgia, at Tennessee and at LSU. Plus Alabama has lost six in a row against Auburn. Alabama will be better this season, but the tough schedule will keep them out of the title game.

The bottom of the West is full of questions.

Did Mississippi State turn the corner?

Can Houston Nutt take advantage of Ole Miss’ talent?

How will the Hogs adjust to a new coach and different philosophy on offense?

I like MSU’s chance to make it two bowl games in a row. Also look out for Ole Miss, Nutt will win six games or more this season.


SEC East

1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Tennessee
4. South Carolina
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt



Say it with me.

“Hunker down you hairy Dawg!”

Georgia is in a similar position as LSU was last season. Blow out BCS win in the Sugar Bowl to end the season, lots of guys returning on both sides of the ball and a manageable if not challenging schedule. 9 guys return on defense and 7 on offense. Georgia gets Alabama and Tennessee at home but must travel to LSU and Auburn. The East will be decided at the Cocktail Party when the Bulldogs face off against the Florida Gators.

Florida has been picked pre-season #1 by a few publications entering 2008. As usual, much of the media loves offense, which the Gators have plenty. Tebow will again be a beast teaming up with Percy Harvin. But until a running back and wide out emerge, the Gators will remain a two-man operation. Florida’s biggest problem is on defense. Last year the Gators only held two opponents to under 20 points. The front line is young and the secondary had plenty of problems throughout last season.

Many folks criticize Phil Fulmer. I’m not one of them. During his 16 seasons, he’s won over 76% of his games, 10 or more games nine times, a National Title, two SEC Titles and has been to the SEC Championship five times. It is possible this year’s team could be even better than the 2007 group. Four of the five starters on the offensive line return. The defense should be better especially in the secondary. The biggest hurdle is the schedule, which includes road games at Auburn, at Georgia and at South Carolina. The Vols are good enough to win the East, but getting past Georgia and Florida will be a tall task.

Anyone who has read this page knows I am a fan of Steve Spurrier. But you have got to wonder if the challenge at South Carolina is too much for him to overcome. He is 21-16 overall with a 1-1 bowl record in three years with the Gamecocks. He has beaten Georgia, Florida and Tennessee once each but is only 3-6 overall against the Eastern big boys. The schedule plays out very well as SC gets Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Arkansas at home. The only real road test is Florida. A New Years Day bowl is not out of reach.

Kentucky and Vandy lost a number of players and will be battling for the basement, again, this season.

What could have been…

As this season evolved, you had to get the feeling that LSU was living on borrowed time. Close calls with Florida, Auburn and Alabama and the triple OT loss to UK showed that LSU was not a dominant team in the mold of the 2003 Tigers. So what happened? First off, let’s not forget that after 12 games LSU is 10-2 and ranked #7 in the BCS. Both of LSU’s losses were in triple OT to quality football teams. But to make it through the SEC in a position to win a National Championship, you must be special. At the very top of the football world, the margin for error is extremely thin. You must do the little things correctly and have a little good fortune along the way. The following are a few areas where LSU came up short.

* Injuries – Charles Alexander (DT) lost for the season. Beckwith (LB), Dorsey (DT), Flynn (QB), Doucet (WR) and Holliday (RB/KR) all missed time due to injuries.

*Flynn’s slow starts kept the opposition in games in the first half.

*Offensive line struggled at times to protect Flynn.

*Defense couldn’t get off the field.

*Pelini’s inability to adjust and attack at the right moment. I grade him out at a C+ this season. In LSU’s two loses, he refused to bring pressure on the quarterback by blitzing when it was obvious the front four was struggling. Sure it is easy to second guess some play calling, but at this level, as Miles has shown repeatedly on 4th down, some risk taking is essential. Perfect example in OT this Friday. 4th and ten for the Hogs and we rush four and play coverage. Dick stands back there forever and Hillis gets open to convert.

*LSU commits some of the dumbest penalties. Doucet lining up wrong against Arkansas and Tyson Jackson’s personal foul against OK’s Woodson in the Kentucky game are the two that really stick out. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

*Schedule – LSU played 8 BCS conference teams that have won 6 games or more. For a little perspective, the following list is the current BCS Standings with the number of games against teams with 6 wins is in parentheses.

1. Mizzu (6)
2. West Virginia (6)
3. Ohio State (7)
4. Georgia (8)
5. Kansas (4)
6. Virginia Tech (6)
7. LSU (8)
8. USC (5)
9. Oklahoma (6)
10. Florida (7)

I think people forget how difficult it is to win an SEC Championship and National Championship. As great as Spurrier was at Florida, he won ONE national title; and only after backing into a rematch with FSU in the Sugar Bowl. Tressell at Ohio State? He needed a horrific injury to Miami’s Willis Mcgahee and a HORRIBLE pass interference call in overtime to get his title. LSU was the beneficiary of a crazy sequence of events which landed them in the title game in 2003. You think Texas and Mack Brown win in the Rose Bowl without Vince Young? As fantastic as USC’s run has been the last few years, Pete Carroll has the same number of crystal footballs as Tennessee’s Phil Fulmer. Bob Stoops is well on his way to having his face carved on the Mt. Rushmore of Sooner football, but alas he has as many titles as Larry Coker.

I think Spurrier, Tressell, Carroll, Stoops, and Saban are all terrific coaches (I have mixed feelings on Brown and Fulmer). The comments above are not to knock them, only to make the point that so many events outside of a coach’s control can dictate their fates. Would Oregon be 10-1 if Dennis Dixon didn’t blow out his ACL? If Virginia Tech doesn’t give up two TD’s to BC in the last five minutes of the game, are they in line to play in New Orleans? If USC’s Booty doesn’t break his thumb against Stanford, is USC undefeated?

Les Miles is a damn good coach and I hope he stays at LSU (for the record though I think he is gone if Michigan makes him the offer). With Miles, LSU has an opportunity to have LONG TERM success and legitimate chances to win titles in the future. So every one needs to relax and get a grip. The man is 32-6 over three years. He is 10-4 against Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas. He’s won two divisional championships and two bowl games. He’s also BLASTED Arizona, Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame out of conference.
Let’s just keep a little perspective.

Some other random thoughts:

*Darren McFadden is a stud. I would put him up there with Hershel Walker and Bo Jackson as the top three RB’s in SEC history.

*LSU has struggled with mobile QB’s all season and when McFadden lined up in that “wildcat” formation, the Tiger defense gave up a number of big plays.

*What was Miles doing calling those timeouts at the end of the game? He left a minute left on the clock out of sheer clock mismanagement. Someone want to volunteer to tutor him in late game timeout taking?

*Flynn is the epitome of streaky. After an awful first half, he came out looking sharp throwing three TD’s and rushing for another after the half.

*West Virginia hung 66 on UConn this weekend in a ‘de facto’ Big East Championship. Are you kidding me? The Big Least is joke and all I can do is hope that the Mountaineers don’t back into the BCS Championship game.

*Along that line of thought, Suckeyes vs. WVU would blow as a BCS Title game. But it would be nice to see the Suckeyes get abused by that spread offense.

*The SEC is flat out tough. You have to be great to go 12-1 much less 13-0. The teams are so talented and equally matched, it shouldn’t be a surprise that so many games go into OT and are decided in the final moments. I have heard that just means the SEC is mediocre with no truly great teams. I disagree. I won’t use the term “best” but I think the SEC is the “deepest” conference in the country.

*The BCS is in its tenth year. Thus far, the SEC has hoisted the crystal football three (3) times, Big Twelve (2), Pac 10 (1), Big East (1), ACC (1), and Big 11, (1).

*The firings have begun. Orgeron at Ole Piss and Callahan at Nebraska were terminated this weekend. Two disastrous hires have run these two programs into the ground. Worse than the hiring decisions was the firing of Cutcliff and Solich in the first place. Cutcliff had just led Ole Piss to their best season in 40 years and Solich won 9 games the year he was fired. Crazy.

*Not to toot my own horn…but check out my preseason picks for the SEC East and West.

*Florida and Georgia are going to beat the crap out whoever they play in their respective bowl games.

From the Tropics...

Greetings from San Juan, Puerto Rico!! I’m in the Caribbean as a coach for an LSU Moot Court team. The weather is warm and the sights are beautiful, but during football season, my mind never strays far from my beloved LSU Tigers.

The unprecedented challenges over the past three weeks for the LSU football team have prompted me to end my sabbatical and put my thoughts to paper…er…keypad.

Despite BC’s amazing comeback Thursday night against Virginia Tech, LSU is in great shape in terms of the BCS Championship Game. The Tigers weathered the best shots of three very talented and well coached teams to win two of 3 games.

Florida – Tim Tebow is a great quarterback. There I said it without vomiting. The guy can run and pass as well as anyone. He’s also poised and makes so many good decisions in the pocket. I thought he would really struggle in Tiger Stadium but he was sharp and didn’t look rattled in the least.

LSU won on the strength of its offensive line and Les Miles willingness to take calculated risks. The Tigers dominated the second half converting on FIVE fourth down conversions. Admittedly, the defense struggled at times against the Gators, but the two forced turnovers in the second half kept LSU in the game.

Kentucky – In some ways this game reminded me of the Tennessee game from 2005. The Tigers just ran out of gas against a top notch opponent. Normally, a 13 point lead would be enough for the Tigers to hold on to victory. But the offense floundered in the second half giving Kentucky short fields to work with. From a coaching perspective, LSU’s coaches failed to take situational gambles, which could have pulled out a victory.

Auburn – I have heard a ton of bitching about this game. My only thought as I walked back to the car from Tiger Stadium was, “what a great game!” At times I was pissed, despondent, frustrated and ready to pack it in. But I was also excited, optimistic, entertained and ultimately TOTALLY SATISFIED. How can you be upset when you beat a Top 20 team? How can you complain when LSU overcame a sluggish first half to rally from a 10 point deficit? How can you grumble when you completely crush the spirit of a hated foe? How can you whine when you were able to bear witness to one of the best finishes in the history of LSU football?

I’m not saying there is no room for criticism. Only that it must be tempered with the fact that LSU is 7-1 and currently ranked #3 in the BCS. LSU must improve, but the Tigers will enter November firmly in control of their own destiny. Speaking of improvement…

* The receiving corps needs to wake up. Guys aren’t getting open and when they do, dropped passes are killing Flynn (hello Brandon LaFell). With the return of Doucet, the emergence of Byrd and the growth of Tolliver, LSU has an opportunity to become more diversified on offense.

*Defense has been a little suspect. The defensive line is not as strong as predicted. The injury to Charles Alexander has had a bigger impact than first expected and Favorite must continue to improve to meet the challenge. Both Florida and Kentucky did well running the spread offense and getting favorable match-ups. But let’s not be too harsh, Tebow and Woodson will both get an invite to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation. (Has one team ever faced legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates in consecutive weeks?)

*Coaching. LSU needs to come up with better defensive play calls on third down. Florida and Kentucky converted on way too many third down conversions. Where was the pressure in Lexington? LSU thrives on being aggressive; LB and Safety blitzes could create more negative plays. Offensively, my hope is that Flynn’s performance on Saturday will encourage the coaching staff to integrate a vertical passing game into the playbook. If LSU can force other teams to respect the deep ball, the running game will be unstoppable.

One more week until the battle for SEC West supremacy.

Return of the Good...Bad

Good: MSU’s Croom finally on right track.

Bad: Poor Tommy Tuberville, this may be his worst Auburn team.

Good: I know the season is only three games old, but Michigan State looks good, especially in light of everyone else in the Big 10 struggling.

Bad: I can’t remember the Big 10 ever being this weak.

Good: Michigan finally gets a W.

Bad: Could this be the worst Notre Dame team since Gerry Faust walked the sidelines? Didn’t these guys play in BCS bowls the past two years?

Good: Florida was very impressive against Tennessee.

Bad: Outside of LSU and Florida, the SEC looks a little mediocre.

Good: I am starting to warm up to Flutie and James on Thursday night. Flutie knows his stuff.

Bad: Lou Holtz still blows, but at least I don’t have to hear any Notre Dame crap out of him.

Good: Darren McFadden is the best SEC running back since Bo Jackson.

Bad: To bad Arkansas has the worst QB in the conference.

Good: The Contenders – USC, LSU, OU, Florida, Penn State, Cal, Wisconsin, Texas, West Virginia, Rutgers, OSU, South Carolina, Clemson, Michigan State, BC, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Purdue, Mizzu, Kansas, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Uconn, South Florida, Cincinnati, Indiana, Air Force, Oregon

Bad: Poser Material – Cornholers, Hogs, Georgia Tech, UCLA, Louisville

Good: Little guys rising up.

Bad: Tennessee, Georgia, Auburn and Arkansas are a combined 0-4 in conference play.

Good: Duke ended its 22 game losing streak.

Bad: The victim? Northwestern, which lost 34 in a row in the early 80’s.

The Best: LSU’s defense, #1 in the nation in numerous categories including total defense, passing efficiency defense and scoring defense.

The Worst: Orenthal -

Behind the Woodshed

Thoughts on the Game

The 2007 version of the LSU Fighting Tigers football team is very, very good. Admittedly, Virginia Tech is not as good as advertised. But for LSU to lay 48 points on the Hokies vaunted defense is incredibly impressive. Matter of fact, this was the worst beating suffered by Virginia Tech in 25 years.

The defense looked tremendous once again and the offense showed much more in week two than in Starkville. Against the Virginia Tech defense, ranked #1 in the country the last two seasons, the Tigers piled up 598 yards and 48 points. This was no fluke. LSU’s first two drives of the game netted over 165 yards and 14 points. Flynn has done a great job of managing the offense over the last two weeks. He has accounted for two passing TD’s and one rushing. But more importantly, he has ZERO turnovers. His poise in the pocket will be the difference in LSU’s season.

With so many playmakers on offense and a suffocating defense, why is Flynn so important? Because in my mind, LSU’s biggest foe this season is itself. If the Tigers remain focused and play within the game plan, the LSU will head to New Orleans 13-0. Flynn’s experience and game management will force the opposition to drive the field against LSU’s nasty defense, a losing proposition for all but the best offenses in the country.

The Polls

This week gives us another reason the polls are unfair and inherently biased. The only way you leave USC #1 is because you THINK the Trojans are the best team in the country, no other reason. We KNOW LSU has looked magnificent the last two weeks, is obviously loaded with talent and well coached. If USC crushes Nebraska next week then move them back to #1. But thru two weeks, LSU’s body of work clearly outclasses anyone else in the country.

Les to the BIG BLUE MAFIA

With Lloyd Carr’s Wolverines at 0-2, vultures are circling in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The common thought amongst fans and talking heads is that Les Miles is on the top of Michigan’s list and he’d “walk to Ann Arbor” to take the head coaching job. As Corso would say, “not so fast my friend!”

Why?

1. The Big Ten is way down. It is not impossible for Michigan to rebound and make a run at the Rose Bowl.

2. Lloyd Carr has a lot of stroke at UM. I don’t see him getting fired for one poor season after going 11-0 last season before falling to OSU and USC.

3. Let’s say Michigan does make a change. Let’s also say LSU makes a run at the National Title. Will the Wolverines sit around and wait until after New Years to name a new coach? Can they afford to wait and name a head coach less than 30 days before national signing day? Remember, Michigan’s last game is on November 17th, 6 or 7 weeks before the BCS games. I have also heard that a faction at UM does not want Miles. So the offer may not come even if Carr steps down.

4. Would Miles take the job if offered? I know he’s a Michigan guy, but he has LSU rolling. Plus, if LSU makes the BCS Title game in New Orleans, would he be willing to become a lame duck before the biggest game in his career? He can stay at LSU as long as he wants and become a legend in Baton Rouge.

5. LSU would assuredly throw more money at him forcing Michigan to match. Carr and Miles make about the same right now (approximately $1.4 million per). Michigan is one of the arrogant upper class of college football, are they willing to get into a bidding war with an obviously inferior school from the deep south? Think about it, for all his success, Miles has yet to win a conference or national championship. In his time at Michigan, Carr has won five Big Ten titles and one national championship.

No one knows what will happen at this point. Let’s just enjoy the ride and worry about next season after this one is over.

Week 1 Random Musings

* How in God’s name is Lou Holtz still on TV? He’s a huge homer for Notre Dame and half the time he is choking over his own tongue. He is just flat out annoying and sucks the life out any show he appears on. Matter of fact, he just stated that the ’07 Domers will win 10 games this season. Are you kidding? Trade him to NBC so I never have to watch him again.

* If I could pick any coach to run my program, I’d take Steve Spurrier in a heartbeat.

* I can’t wait for Bama to drop a game they should win and the resulting implosion from Saban and the Tide faithful.

* USC v. LSU would be a great Championship Game. Booty returns to Louisiana for his final game. LSU plays at home for all the marbles. The game that should have been played after the 2003 season will finally come to fruition. Bourbon Street would be insane.

* LSU is going to win 10 or 11 games and the SEC Title.

* There are about 10 teams that could win it all. The difference between those teams is minimal. One injury to a key player, a let down one week, or just plain bad luck can change the course of their season.

* College Gameday is really fallen off the last few years. Too much fluff and other junk.

* Thursday night football booth went into the toilet this year. Herbstreit out, Flutie and Craig James in…yuck.

* I understand the shooting at Virginia Tech was a horrible event for everyone in Blacksburg, but ESPN’s coverage was ridiculous. At one point of the broadcast I couldn’t help but think, “hey, they scheduled a football game and an actual football game broke out.” I’m all for paying respect and being sensitive to the situation, but at a certain point, the pain suffered by the victims and their families is cheapened by the media overkill.

* Michigan’s loss at home was a big wakeup call for everyone that thinks they can roll out the hat against I-AA teams.


* After watching Virginia Tech flop around for 60 minutes Saturday, I feel much better about LSU’s chances this weekend.

* For the first week of the season, there were a number of entertaining games. Auburn v. K-State went down to the wire. UT v. Cal was a track meet for most of the night. Colorado State v. Colorado went into OT. Mizzu v. Illinois was wild from start to finish.

* Notre Dame is going to blow this season. I can’t wait for that Duke v. Notre Dame game on NBC on November 17.

* Oklahoma looked awesome this weekend. A run for the National Title may be in the cards for the Sooners.

* Speaking of looking awesome, the Mighty Spartans DESTROYED UAB this Saturday. Michigan State has a legitimate shot to make a bowl game this season despite a brutal schedule (at Wisconsin, at Ohio State, at Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State)

* Click here for the LSU recap and Video Highlights