Air Raid Bombs Tigers

 

In retrospect, maybe we should have seen it coming.  LSU had only three starters on the field  from last season's national title game.  New faces were all over the field and on the sidelines.  Mike Leach has a senior QB to run his highly successful Air Raid offense.  Regardless, Saturday may have been one of the worst defensive performances in LSU history.  Let's break it all down.

Offense

* Miles Brennan was a little disappointing.  He finished with 345 yards and 3 TD's, but he never seemed comfortable or in command.  Maybe I expected too much after Joe Burrow.  In his defense, it was his first start and he was harried all game long.  The running game was only moderately effective. The receivers dropped some passes.  I do think there is room for Brennan to grow.  He will improve as the season goes along and I expect him to be one of the better QB's in the league by the end of the season.

* The offensive line was poor. Brennan was sacked seven times.  Some of them were on him, but there were a number of free rushers or linemen just getting beat in their one on one assignments.  The run game improved in the second half, but there is a lot of work to be done.

* The receivers were a mixed bag.  I believe Terrance Marshall (#6) had two drops, the most critical was on LSU's last drive.  Jaray Jenkins (#10) was a very nice surprise.  For all the hype we heard about Arik Gilbert (#2), I didn't see it.  He dropped the first pass thrown his way and his blocking was awful at times.  He's a true freshman and I know he will get much better, but that was far from a great start.

* Going into this game under Coach O, LSU was 31-3 when they gained more than 400 yards of total offense and 36-1 when scoring more than 30 points.  LSU did both yet still lost by 10. 

Defense

* Ali Gaye (#11) had a really nice game at his defensive end position.  He finished with three total tackles, two tackles for loss and a sack.  He also batted down multiple passes and brought pressure throughout the game.  Jabril Cox (#19) also played well.  He made a great play on a Costello pass which resulted in a pick six for the Tigers.

* LSU is number 1 in the country in rushing defense.  LSU is also dead last in the country in passing defense.

* LSU will have to give up the mantle of DBU for a while.  State did a great job of identifying the Tiger's weakest man in the secondary and went at him. It was a complete debacle across the board.  Darren Evans (#26) is completely out of his depth at this level.  Eli Ricks (#1) had a nice INT in the second half, but looked like a true freshman for most of the game.  Jay Ward (#5) had some nice moments, but he was beaten badly on Costello's final TD pass. Even Cordale Flott (#25), arguably LSU's best corner on the field had a rough outing.  JaCoby Stevens (#7) played well.  His leadership will be key going forward.

* The LSU defense forced 4 turnovers yet still allowed 44 points.

Special Teams

* No complaints here.  Tigers were very effective all game.

LSU goes on the road next week to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores gave A&M all they wanted in College Station losing 17-12.  I think that game says a lot more about A&M than it does Vandy.  Look for lots of improvement on both sides of the ball from the Tigers.  Vandy only mustered 255 total yards on offense against the Aggies.  Let's see if LSU's defense can rebound.  Offensively, let's see if the offensive line can take some steps forward to get the running game going.

Before Saturday, I thought LSU could compete with the top teams in the SEC this season but not win the division.  Right now, they look more like a 5-5 team than an 8-2 squad.  The Tigers need to rally...quickly.  This season will be a real test for coach O.  

LSU 38 - Vandy 24

Game week...Finally!!

At times I didn't know if we were going to make it.  But we are here!  Game week!

Many national pundits are questioning the Tigers this season.  It is not uncommon to see LSU ranked as low as 4th in the Western Division in some predictions.  The focus has been exclusively about what LSU has lost.  It is a mistake to overlook what LSU has coming back.

LSU goes into this weekend's opener a 16.5 point favorite, telling me the folks in Vegas still have faith in the Tigers.  Three things to look for:

1. Can LSU's three headed running attack get rolling?  Curry, Davis-Price and Emery are all listed as co-starters at the running back position on the depth chart released by Coach O today.  Establishing some rhythm in the running game will take pressure off QB Miles Brennan.

2. What will we see from the defense in terms of pressure and play calling?  Coach O has publicly expressed his displeasure with LSU's 2019 defense on more than one occasion.  In fairness, LSU finished 4th in the SEC in tackles for loss per game and 5th in sacks per game.  The real issue was redzone defense.  Opponents scored TD's on 65% of their redzone opportunities.  That ranked 12th in the SEC and 93rd in the country.

3. Last season, LSU outscored its 15 opponents 249 to 91 in the second quarter.  LSU was never outscored by an opponent in the second quarter in 2019.  The average half time score for the Tigers was 27-10.  Can LSU maintain that first half focus and put early pressure on opponents?

I expect LSU to come out throwing and running tempo against Mississippi State.  State will also come out throwing Leach's Air-Raid offense.  Look for LSU and new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini to pressure State's transfer QB KJ Costello.  I like the match-up of our secondary versus their receivers. Close early, but LSU will pull away with a balanced attack.

LSU 38 - State 20

College Football Playoff

Each week I will post my picks for the playoffs.

Alabama, Clemson, Texas, Ohio State

2020 SEC Predictions

 

2020 Predictions

East 

 

1. Georgia        (9-1) 

2. Florida         (8-2) 

3. Tennessee    (5-5) 

4. Kentucky     (5-5) 

5. Missouri       (3-7) 

6. S. Carolina   (2-8) 

7. Vanderbilt    (0-10) 

 

West 

 

1. Alabama       (10-0) 

2. LSU              (8-2) 

3. Texas A&M  (7-3) 

4. Auburn          (6-4) 

5. Miss. State     (4-6) 

6. Ole Miss        (3-7) 

      Arkansas       (0-10)

Tid Bits 

 

• *  Alabama is hungry and led by a senior QB.  They are the most talented team in the country.  I think they win the West, the SEC Title and the National Championship.  (It hurts to write that.) 

 

• *  Florida’s Kyle Trask is the highest rated returning QB in the SEC this season.  But the line needs to be rebuilt and I don’t see the playmakers to support Trask. 

 

• *  I’m going with Georgia to win the East even though I am not sold on Georgia’s QB situation.  Jamie Newman transferred in from Wake Forest where he finished 9th in the ACC last season in passing efficiency (conference games only).  The other QB transfer is JT Daniels from USC.  Daniels tore his ACL in the first game of the 2019 season.  He is not as experienced as Newman, but he is more talented.  Georgia’s defense is outstanding once again which will have to carry this team. 

 

• *  I hope Mike Leach does well at State.  I like the offense and he’s an interesting guy to have in the league.   

 

• *  Tennessee’s schedule is brutal, at Georgia, Alabama, A&M, at Auburn and Florida at home to end the season. 

 

• *  Kentucky will be pretty good, but the schedule will be difficult to navigate.  UK is getting some media hype as a “surprise team.”  I just don’t see it. 

 

• *  Another “hyped” team is A&M.  Again, I’m not buying it.  QB Kellen Mond is an average guy.  In six games last season versus teams with a winning record he threw 7 TDs and 4 INT’s.  His QB rating was a 112.08 in those games.  Those are worse numbers than Jordan Jefferson put up! 

 

• *  I have Auburn at 6-4, but they could end up 4-6 if things go poorly early.  The opening game versus UK is a big key for them as Georgia is in week two. 

 

• *  Arkansas, Ole, Miss, Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt will really struggle. A 10 game SEC schedule is a nightmare for these schools.  Don’t expect the SEC to go to a permanent 9 or 10 game conference schedule any time soon. 

Welcome Back

 

The Greatest

Hey guys. 

 

It’s been a while. 

 

Are you still enjoying the glow from THE greatest season in college football history? 

 

Winning a title is always a great ride.  But the way the 2019 team ran roughshod through the rest of college football made it a season for the history books.  The win at Texas, handling Florida in the second half, breaking the losing streak to Alabama (Roll Tide what?!), destroying Georgia and Oklahoma and then beating Clemson in the Dome were the high points of a magical season.  Oh, and Joe Burrow won the Heisman in the biggest landslide in Heisman history.  As the 2019 season moves further into the rear-view mirror, “Yea, this LSU team is really good, but that 2019 team...” will become a familiar refrain.  2019 will be the bench mark in which all future LSU teams are judged.  As LSU fans, let us not be too harsh on the players of the future as they try and match 2019’s level of excellence. 

 

But that’s all in the past now.   It’s 2020 and we are in for a season the likes we have never seen. 

 

There has been plenty of negativity from the media and many fans in the last few months regarding the viability of playing a college football season in 2020.  I do not share that negativity and it is counterproductive to what athletic administrators are trying to accomplish.  Pulling off this season is going to be extremely challenging.  Having sports writers put out articles like THIS and THIS do not help.  As with much of “journalism” these days, many sports writers have moved beyond just providing the public with raw information.  They have staked out their positions and every article they write fits that narrative.  Many think the season should not be played and their articles reflect that point of view.

 

Not here. I’m staying positive and I am confident the season will be played.  In that vein...let’s talk about the Tigers. 

 

2020 LSU Preview 

 

Offense 

 

This is Myles Brennan’s team.  Brennen enrolled at LSU in 2017 as the 6th ranked pro style QB in the country coming out of high school. He has a stronger arm than Burrow but as we saw last year, knowing where to go with the ball is the key in this offense.  Chase and Marshall are back at WR and incoming freshman TE Arik Gilbert will start game one.  Gilbert was the #1 TE nationally in the 2020 class and the 2019-2020 Gatorade National Player of the year.  The offensive line is in good shape as well with regard to the starters.  However, there is little experienced depth so staying healthy is crucial.  With the style of offense LSU plays, the O-Line only needs to be good, not great. 

 

That being said, using some of the advanced metrics which have become in vogue recently, LSU ranks 127th out of 130 teams nationally in returning production on offense.  There is no question LSU has plenty of talent, but it will need to come into form early.   

 

Much has been made of the departure of Joe Brady from the offensive staff.  LSU fans owe a great deal of gratitude to Brady as he has revolutionized LSU unlike any coach I have seen in my 38 years of following LSU.  He will be missed.  But I have great deal of faith in Coach O and Steve Ensminger.  We still have the playbook and Ensminger did a great job on game days.  

  

Defense 

 

Bo Pelini replaces Dave Aranda as defensive coordinator this season.  Pelini previously served as LSU DC 2005-2007.  Here is a breakdown of a few defensive stats from those years. 

  

	National Rank Yards/Play	National Rank  INT/Game	National Rank  1st Downs Allowed/Game	Defensive  S&P+
2005	4th	81st	3rd	8th
2006	2nd	26th	7th	2nd
2007	5th	11th	5th	7th

 

(Click here for S&P+ explained) 

 

The defensive interior line is deep and experienced.  I expect Tyler Shelvin (DT) to have a breakout season and be a finalist for a number of post season awards.  The ends are question marks.  The linebacker corps is totally revamped from last year.  Damone Clark (LB) looked very good last season in limited duty and should only continue to grow in 2020.  The secondary will be the strength of the defense.  Derek Stingly, Jr. is the best CB in the country.  Jacoby Stevenson (S) blossomed last year and will be a leader for this group. Senior Kary Vincent improved dramatically as 2109 went along and will be another valuable leader in the nickel position. 

 

Lots of questions but also a lot of excitement surround he 2020 Tigers.  A 10 game conference only slate does not allow LSU, or any other team, to work out kinks, build depth or get younger guys playing time.  We know who LSU will play, but currently we do not know where the “bigger” games will be placed on the schedule. 

 

It’s good to be back.  I look forward to what promises to be a unique season of college football. 

 

National Rank Yards/Play 

National Rank 

INT/Game 

National Rank 

1st Downs Allowed/Game 

Defensive 

S&P+ 

 

 

 

 

 

2005 

4th 

81st 

3rd  

8th  

2006 

2nd 

26th 

7th  

2nd 

2007 

5th 

11th 

5th  

7th