2016 SEC Predictions

SEC East 

1. Tennessee
2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. Kentucky
5. Missouri
6. South Carolina
7. Vanderbilt

SEC West 

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Ole Miss
4. Auburn
5. Texas A&M
6. Arkansas
7. Mississippi State

Is this finally the year that Rocky Top puts it all together?  Can anyone topple Alabama?  Who will be the first coach to get fired?  Should be another great season in the SEC.

Les Miles, Year 12

Les Miles carried off after 2015 victory over Texas A&M

November 21, 2015

            As Laquon Treadwell gathered Chad Kelly’s TD pass to put Ole Miss up 23-0, I was firmly convinced that Miles was done.  After a 7-0 start and a #2 national ranking, the Tigers imploded losing three in a row for the first time in the Miles era.  The wheels had finally come off and surely the head coach would be shown the door.  The talk was LSU had a lead on Jimbo Fisher as Miles’ replacement.

Fast forward one week and all the speculation and drama was for naught.  After an ugly and just plain hard to watch 19-7 win over A&M, Miles was retained for at least one more season.  Joe Aleva didn’t sound terribly happy about the sudden turn of events and I didn’t blame him.  From everything I read, LSU’s President, F. King Alexander, decided to retain Miles for reasons that had nothing to do with football.

Today

            Personally I was ready to see Miles go if we had Fisher lined up.  I was tired of LSU’s offensive woes and Miles’ dubious game management.  In an age of prolific wide open offenses, LSU is still playing football in a phone booth.  So here we are about to embark on season number 12 with Les.  The only LSU coaches with longer tenures are Bernie Moore (1935-1947) and Charles McClendon (1962-1979).

             How does Miles stack up against his contemporaries?  I went back three years and looked at divisional and conference records for the six other coaches in the West.  The numbers are as follows:

Coach	Divisional Record	Conference Record	Overall Record
Saban	15-3	23-3*	37-5
Freeze	10-8	14-10	27-12
Miles	9-9	14-10	27-11
Malzahn	9-9	14-11*	27-13
Mullen	8-10	13-11	26-13
Sumlin	7-11	11-13	25-14
Bielema	5-13	7-17	18-20

* Includes SEC Title Game.

             It goes without saying that Saban is in a class all his own, but the rest of the coaches in the division are bunched around the .500 mark.  As a footnote, Miles was 13-2 in divisional play his first three seasons as LSU’s coach.
             Clearly this is a crucial year for Miles.  LSU is deep and experienced in 2016.  The Tigers get Alabama and Ole Miss at home.  The media slelected Alabama to win the SEC…again.  But Tiger fans are only going to be so patient.  One division title in eight years has LSU fans frustrated. 
              A Michigan Man that loses five in a row to Ohio State would be on the hottest of hot seats.  The seat of an LSU Man who has lost five in a row to Alabama is not much cooler.  There are no excuses this season.  Can the Mad Hatter conjure up more magic for the 2016 season?

Running for Glory

 

One third of LSU’s season is on the books and some questions have been answered while others still hang in the air.

What we know…

* Leonard Fournette is a monster.  Fournette is the front runner for the Heisman Trophy and has plenty more opportunities to cement his position.  He’s on pace to rush for 2300 yards which I don’t think is realistic.  But he has the potential to break 1600 yards with 20+ TD’s.

* LSU’s offensive line is good and getting better each week.  The Tigers are also building depth in that group.

* The receivers still drop too many passes.  I hear all the talk about that group, but I am unimpressed thus far.

* Brandon Harris can handle the job.  He’s done everything the coaches have asked of him.  He was the biggest question mark and he’s really delivered.

What we don’t know…

* How good is this defense?  The Tigers rank 5^th in the SEC giving up 4.46 yards per play.  The pass defense has been effective giving up only 5.3 yards an attempt, tied for best in the SEC.  But the big plays on defense haven’t really been there.  The Tigers are 11^th in the SEC in tackles for loss per game and tied for last in the conference in total takeaways.  The Tigers are averaging three sacks per game, a stark improvement over the last year.  LSU’s next four opponents are not particularly strong on offense, so we may have to wait until the Alabama game until we get a true read on the Tiger defense.

* Will Brandon Harris be able to make throws when LSU needs him to make a play?  He has not had to make any plays in crunch time and we just won’t know until we get there.  South Carolina will be another good road test for Harris.  A home game against Florida will present the best defense LSU will have faced up until that point.  With Cameron’s coaching and time to bring Harris along slowly, I am optimistic that things will continue to go well at the position.

* Can Miles find his 2007 coaching mojo? Miles played to win that season and LSU won a National Title.  Since then, game plans have been generally more conservative.  The Tigers will have to take some risks to overcome Ole Miss and Alabama on the road.  Will the “play to win” Les show up in those games and give the Tigers a chance?

No worries this week.  Fournette gets his 200+ yards and 3 TD’s before finding the bench in the 3^rd quarter.

 LSU 55 – Eastern Michigan 10

 

 

 

In no particular order – Ohio State, Baylor, Georgia, Utah

LSU 2015 Preview

 

 

2015 is LSU’s 11th season under Les Miles, and accordingly, another season with ominous questions about the QB position.  Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris will again compete for the starting spot on another talented LSU squad.  Neither has inspired much confidence in their careers at LSU.  Jennings has career numbers of 124 of 256 for 1,792 yards, 8 INT’s and 12 TD’s.  While his completion percentage is a wretched 48.4%, his 7 yards per attempt is…average.  There are just not a lot of good things to say about Jennings play or his numbers.  Harris has so few snaps under his belt the numbers are almost meaningless.  It’s undisputed that Harris has the most talent and upside.  But Jennings has the experience.

2015 is LSU’s 11th season under Les Miles, and accordingly, another season with ominous questions about the QB position.  Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris will again compete for the starting spot on another talented LSU squad.

The general consensus coming out of fall practice is that Harris has pulled away from Jennings and will eventually be the starter.  TAKE IT TO THE BANK, unless Harris gets hurt, he will be the starter for LSU’s opening game.

The rest of the team is in very good shape.  A quick preview of the offense and defense:

OFFENSE

The offensive line has a mix of experience and youth.  Last season LSU was able to run effectively at times against 8 man fronts.  With a (hopefully) improved passing game, this group is talented enough to lead LSU to a big season.  All the skill players are back which should help the passing game move forward.  Leonard Fournette is a beast and will only be better this season.  He is getting a lot of talk for the Heisman which is great for him and LSU, but he won’t win it.  Not because he’s not talented enough, but because of two factors out of his control.  Number one, he won’t get enough touches.  He really needs to get between 25-30 a game to get the kind of numbers needed to push for that top spot.  Number two, LSU just is not good enough as a team to push for a spot in the playoffs.  But an invite to New York is a definite possibility.

DEFENSE

The departure of John Chavis will make this an interesting transition year for the defense.  The secondary is the star unit on that side of the ball.  Jalen Mills has started since his freshmen year and can be counted on to play well every week.  Jamal Adams is an elite player who will eventually be a first round draft pick.  The defensive line has question marks but Davon Godchaux and Christian Lacouture should be solid in the middle.  Kendall Beckwith is an All-SEC player at middle linebacker and will anchor LSU’s defense.  This unit has future NFL players all over the field.  If new coordinator Kevin Steele can get everyone on the same page, look out.

Odds and Ends

* Over the last 10 years, LSU has the 6^th best home winning percentage in college football at 87.5%.  That also ranks 1^st in the SEC.  Think about that for a moment.  While the SEC won an unprecedented SEVEN national titles in a row and clearly staked its claim as the toughest conference in America, Tiger Stadium was the toughest SEC venue for opponents to “secure victory.”  Well done Tigers.  Those on the field and those in the stands can take a bow.

* Since 2009, the Tigers are 34-4 in Tiger Stadium.  The only losses coming to a Tebow led Gators team that finished 13-1 (2009), eventual National Champion Alabama (2012), a Mississippi State team that reached the #1 spot in the polls that season (2014) and an Alabama squad that reached the College Football Playoff (2014).  

* LSU ranks 13th in the country and 2nd in the SEC in conference winning percentage over that last 10 years.  Miles has won 69% of his SEC games since arriving.  As expected, Bama is 1st in the SEC winning 76.5% of its conference games over that same period.

* LSU has won 49 consecutive non-conference games, the longest in FBS history.  With LSU's non-conference schedule this season, the Tigers are a good bet to get to 53 in a row.

Final Thoughts

It’s undisputed that LSU is one of the more talented teams in the country.  But the question has always been, “who is going to play quarterback for the Tigers?”  With Brandon Harris under center, LSU becomes a real wild card in the SEC West.  As noted earlier, LSU has been dominant at home.  The only team I see that has the potential to be good enough to come into Tiger Stadium this season and get a win is Auburn.  Texas A&M and Arkansas will be real tests while I expect Florida to struggle.  The big road games are obviously Alabama and Ole Miss.

Given the news coming out of camp and what I have heard through a few people I trust, I am confident Harris will be the starter this season.  I’ve updated my preview for the SEC West based on Harris’ potential at the QB position.  I think the Tigers can go 10-2 this season, if not better.  If LSU can get past Miss. State and Auburn early, the Tigers could go into the Alabama game 8-0.  Now wouldn’t that be something?

SEC West

This is possibly the toughest year to try and pick the winner of the SEC West.  There are so many questions about each team. 

Alabama is loaded again, but all of the top skill guys are gone (Sims, Yeldon and Cooper).  The offensive line is relatively inexperienced with only 40 starts between the entire unit.  Compare that to Ole Miss which has a whopping 120 starts between its returning offensive linemen.  The defense will be top notch as always.  The Tide get Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee at home but must travel to Auburn and Georgia.

Arkansas is a real wild card this season.  The Hogs were very close to pulling early season upsets before going 3-1 to end the year.  During that four game stretch, Arkansas beat LSU, Ole Miss and Texas by a combined score of 78-7.  Plenty of experience returns on both sides of the ball including senior QB Brandon Allen.  Arkansas plays Auburn at home but must visit Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU.

 

Auburn probably has the best QB in the league but only returns two starters on offense.  The defense will improve under Muschamp but by how much remains to be seen.  Using Phil Steele’s calculations, Auburn ranks 115^th of 128 teams in returning experience.  The Tigers will have a lot of learning to do as the season progresses. Auburn gets Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama at home with road trips to LSU and Arkansas.

LSU has been plagued by poor QB play.  It appears Harris will be the starter for LSU on opening night.  Effective QB play could make LSU a contender in the SEC West. The Tigers return many key players on both sides of the ball but questions will be asked about the defense led by new coordinator Kevin Steele.  LSU has regressed a bit each year since 2011.  The Tigers get Florida, Texas A&M, Auburn and Arkansas at home but must travel to Ole Miss and Alabama.

Mississippi State had a fantastic year in 2014.  But it won’t be repeated in 2015.  There are way too many losses on the offensive line.  The schedule will be markedly tougher as well as State gets LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss at home while traveling to Auburn, A&M, Arkansas and Mizzu.

Ole Miss is again a media darling with multiple publications placing them right outside of the Top 10.  The hype may be warranted. As I mentioned earlier, the OL is loaded with experience.  Clemson transfer Chad Kelly replaces “Good/Bad” Bo Wallace at QB.  The defense was nasty last year but ultimately wore down as the season went on giving up 35, 30, 17 and 42 in the last four games of the season vs. FBS competition.  The home schedule includes Arkansas and LSU with away trips to Alabama, Auburn and Florida.

Texas A&M was supposed to be the “big” addition to the league in 2012.  But Missouri has easily outclassed A&M the past three seasons.  Since joining the league, the Aggies are 13-11 in conference play.  The Mizzu Tigers are a 16-12 in conference which includes two trips to the SEC title game.  A&M will have a new starter at QB as Kenny Hill was eventually benched last season and transferred.  The defense will be better with John Chavis taking over.  But there is a question of whether his defense will be as efficient with A&M’s up tempo style on offense.  A&M has road games at LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss and home dates with Alabama and Auburn.

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Auburn
4. Ole Miss
5. Arkansas
6. Texas A&M
7. Miss. State

2015 SEC Preview

I literally copied this from last year’s preseason post.  Again there is a big turnover at the QB position in the SEC this season with Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Ole Miss all losing their starters from 2014.  Add that to the questions about LSU and Vandy and you have quite a few unknowns going into 2015.

A few thoughts:

* Here is a breakdown of the 28 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	10	7-3
Junior	11	6-5
Sophomore	7	1-6
Freshman	0	0-0

* I beat this dead horse every year, but the odds are heavily stacked against teams with underclass QB’s.  To put this in perspective, while Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel both won Heisman Trophies as underclassmen, neither won the division in those Heisman seasons.

* While the consensus seems to be that Alabama and Georgia will meet in Atlanta for the SEC Title, I'm going to go in a little bit different direction.  From the East, I'm picking Tennessee to make it back to the SEC Championship game for the first time since 2007.  The Vols have recruited very well and live in the much less fearsome SEC East.  I also like Alabama to win the West.  The Tide are again loaded and there are just too many questions from the other contenders.

* Alabama will win the SEC and make it to the CFP only to again lose in the semi-finals to...Ohio State.  

Another frustrating loss...

Leonard Fournette dashes for an 89 yard touchdown. 

In a trend that has become all too familiar, an LSU opponent made a late drive to beat the Tigers at the buzzer.  Over the last three seasons, LSU has lost to Clemson, Ole Miss and now Notre Dame on last second FG’s.  Throw in the losses to Bama in ‘12 and ’14 and you have a good heaping of late game misery.  While the defense must take a big chunk of the blame of those loses, LSU’s inability on offense to put anyone away has repeatedly hurt them.  Many of those tight games Miles was winning early in his tenure at LSU are going the other way.  LSU is only 6-5 the last two years in games decided by 7 points or less. 

Observations:

* The offense played well enough to win but the defense was just atrocious.  ND converted on 11 of 17 third down conversions. SEVENTEEN third down plays!!  The Tigers could not get off the field.  

*Jalen Collins was abused all game. 

*Again, LSU got zero pressure with the front four. 

*Jamal Adams is an All-American type player.

*On offense, LSU had 9 drives, four TD’s, a blocked FG, a failed Fake FG and three punts.  I’m tired of talking about Jennings and his short comings.  He did OK with the only glaring mistake the fumble in the second half.   

*I disagreed with the fake FG at the end of the first half.  If LSU takes the points there, they get the ball to start the second half and take the lead.  Those 3 points were obviously huge for the game.  Had Miles saved that fake FG he could have used it in the second half instead of trying a 40 yard FG that ND blocked.

*I also disagreed with the decision to punt on 4^th and 1 with six minutes left in the game.  Fournette was unstoppable and LSU would have had an excellent chance to convert.  Sure enough, LSU punted and never saw the ball again. 

*Miles is now 6-4 in bowl games at LSU, 2-4 in the last six.

Some folks may be optimistic about next season.  I’m not in that group.  I saw zero growth at the QB position.  The offensive line will need to be rebuilt with Collins and Porter departing (and possibly Alexander and Hawkins leaving as well).  The defense has slowly slipped since the 2011 monster year.  LSU plays at Ole Miss and Alabama which I expect to be losses.  The Tigers also travel to South Carolina, Syracuse and State.  There is probably another loss amongst that group of games.  LSU’s home schedule is filled with Florida, Arkansas, A&M and Auburn.  Does anyone expect LSU to go 4-0 against that line-up?

Another 8-4 season in 2015 will put Miles squarely on the hot seat for 2016.  In the last 7 years, Miles has delivered one division title and one “BCS” bowl appearance.  Is that good enough?  It will be interesting to see how the next few years play out. 

Keep the Faith.

Geaux Tigers.

Music City Bowl Preview

 

LSU will play Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl to end the season.  I like the match up and so does Vegas as the Tigers are 8.5 point favorites.  LSU should be able to run the ball and hopefully force turnover machine Everett Golson to revert to form. (14 INT's and 8 Fumbles)

A few things to look for:

1. The number 1 question for today and the upcoming months is, “who will be LSU’s starter at QB for 2015?”  The job is wide open if Harris has the smarts and work ethic to take it.  Jennings has been extremely poor which has hamstrung the entire offense and coaching staff.  The next few weeks are an opportunity for both QB’s to improve.  This game is an audition for next year.
2. Can Fournette top 1,000 yards rushing?  I like his chances.  Notre Dame gave up about 4.8 yards per carry and 244 yards a game over the last five weeks of the season. 
3. Can the LSU front four get any pass rush?  Notre Dame has given up 28 sacks this year.  But LSU ranks 100^th in the country with only 19 sacks all season.

Given time to prepare, Les Miles has had plenty of success coming up with solid game plans.  (Miles is 16-3 in season openers and bowl games).  Look for a heavy dose of Fournette and some read option.  Harris will probably play, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing.  The defense will have some success but LSU can’t put anyone away so this will be another one possession game.

LSU 27 – ND 20

Bottoming Out

bottom out

 /ˈbɑt̬·əˈmɑʊt/

verb — phrasal verb with bottom

› to reach the lowest point in a changing situation, before any improvement begins

 

 

I think that term is apt, not just for this season but for the Les Miles tenure at LSU.  Gaining the fewest yards since a 1975 game against Texas A&M, the LSU offense defined futility.  In reality we should not be surprised by this outcome, a tough loss to Alabama, an offense regressing each week and a hungry opponent all spelled doom for the Tigers.

While I hate to read too much into one game, this weekend was a microcosm of the biggest failure of the Mile era, the inability to develop QB’s and put out a creative offensive game plan.  I’m not going to rehash the failures of Mr. Miles in respect to the QB’s, but you can read my in depth break down from a few weeks ago.

I’m not even going to delve into the gory details of the game.  The defense played well enough to win, the offense was an absolute joke…again. 

So the question is, what’s next?

Unfortunately, I fear, more of the same.  There is no savior at QB on the horizon and even if there was, I don’t trust Miles to actually “turn over” the offense to his offensive coordinator like he has done on the defensive side of the ball. 

My thoughts going forward are this:

1.      Miles is NOT going anywhere for the foreseeable future.  Unless he somehow ends up at Michigan, he will be LSU’s coach until he retires or gets fired.  I do not think he deserves to be fired, but I also have little faith he will lead LSU to any more titles of any kind.

2.      What would it take for the administration to move on him?  Probably three consecutive 7-6 seasons or two consecutive losing seasons.  Mack Brown and Will Muschamp may give us a window into what could force a change.  Brown was 30-21 over his last four seasons, 18-17 in the Big XII.  Muschamp was 27-20 overall and 17-15 in the SEC in his tenure at Florida.

3.      Miles has gone 8-0, 6-2, 5-3 and 3-4 in the SEC the last four seasons.  There has been a clear downward trend in LSU’s conference performance.  A loss versus A&M would leave the Tigers 14-10 in the SEC over the last three years, a 58% winning percentage. Another 3-5 SEC record in 2015 would leave Miles at 17-15 over four seasons, exactly where Muschamp finished when he was shown the door at Florida.

4.      Miles has a much better resume than Muschamp and thus will have the 2015 and 2016 seasons to get LSU back to the type of success he has had earlier in his tenure.  But he is going to have to solve the QB situation and get the offense moving.

As much as this feels like the bottom, it could get worse.  But it could also get better with so many young players returning next season.  It is difficult to reconcile the games we have seen this season occurring with the same team.  LSU was gritty enough to beat Wisconsin, Florida and Ole Miss while pushing Alabama to the absolute limit.  But this is the same group of players that got blown out by Auburn, dominated by Miss. State and embarrassed by Arkansas.

My personal feeling is that Miles has gotten stale and LSU could do with a change.  I think there are talented coaches out there that could jump start the program and get the Tigers trending in the right direction.  Should Miles be fired? Absolutely not.  But having said that, I personally don’t have much, if any, faith in him bringing LSU the glory he has in the past.  The worst thing you can do to a fan is take away hope, and that’s what Mr. Miles is doing to my fandom.

 

Final Four: Week 11

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Alabama v. (4) Ohio State

(2)   FSU v. (3) Oregon

National Championship
FSU v. Ohio State

Alabama Owns LSU

While walking back to my car after the game I was literally ready to quit LSU football.  I asked myself, why am I dumping so much time, energy and emotion into an activity that so frequently sucks the life out of me.  I’m putting all this effort into a hobby with a coach that I don’t believe in leading a bunch of college kids playing a game.  Maybe Alabama brings out the worst me.  Just this past Friday I told myself I was beyond the old cliché, “losing hurts more than winning feels good.”  Nope, it is now Monday and I am still deeply bothered by this one.

A few thoughts:

1. The defense was lights out.  Sure I was frustrated by the game tying FG with :03 seconds left, but giving up only 13 points in regulation to a team that was averaging 36.5 points per game was a winning effort.  Simms and Co. deserve some credit for executing when everything was on the line.
2. Jennings was extremely poor...again.  Sure there were drops, but he finished 8 of 26 for 76 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. (QB rating of 60.32)   His per attempt average was 2.9 yards for the game.  Harris needs to come off the bench this week and get some meaningful snaps.  The season is “essentially done,” the coaches have three games to see what Harris can do in some limited spots.
3. I’m not going to dwell on it, but the refs did us no favors.  The unsportsmanlike call on Alexander was questionable, but why are you putting yourself in that situation?  You have the game on the line and you lose your composure at the worst possible moment?  Why are you giving the refs an opportunity to affect the game?  That’s why you have lost 4 in a row to Alabama.  Remember 2012? A second quarter run by Jeremy Hill gets LSU to the Alabama 13.  JC Copeland gets called for unnecessary roughness and moves the ball back to the 28.  LSU ends up trying a fake FG and getting nothing on the drive.  That’s not winning football.
4. Kickoffs were terrible all night culminating in the final kickoff going out of bounds.  Again, that's not winning football.
5. What’s most frustrating is that the game played out in LSU’s favor and the Tigers STILL couldn’t close the deal.  It’s painful to say, but Saban and Alabama own Miles and LSU.  More deeply troubling is this simple truth.  If a recruit with no particular allegiance to LSU or Alabama narrows down his choice between the schools, why would he choose the Tigers?  It’s clear championships are NOT coming to Baton Rouge any time soon.  The coaches aren’t good enough and the QB situation has never been solved.  Is LSU a college football program or an NFL prep school?

Hopefully the Tigers can bounce back this weekend on the road in Fayetteville.  Arkansas is 4-5 and still in bowl contention.  Miles is 25-1 after a loss, the only blemish a two game losing streak to end the 2008 regular season.  Defensively, the Hogs are giving up 438 yards and 31 points a game in 5 SEC contests. Offensively, Arkansas is averaging about 43 yards more a game than the Tigers in conference play.  LSU is 6-5 at Arkansas since the beginning of divisional play in 1992.  Expect another close game Saturday.  LSU’s defense should contain Arkansas, but LSU’s anemic passing attack will keep the Tigers from pulling away.  Vegas has LSU a 2.5 point underdog.  Does the smart money know something?

LSU 24 – Hogs 20

 

 

Final Four: Week 11

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) TCU
(2)   Alabama v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Alabama

Bama...Bama...Bama won't you bite my....

Since Saban’s arrival in 2000, Alabama has been the signature game on the Tiger’s schedule.  Of course this was always a big game for LSU fans going back to the 60’s, but LSU just wasn’t on par with many of Bear Bryant’s teams. From 1964 to 1981, LSU was 2-16 against the Tide.  Things improved a bit upon Bryant’s retirement in 1982, as LSU went 6-11-1 in the next 18 games.  Better, but clearly Alabama held the upper hand.

But in 2000, Alabama travelled to Baton Rouge for a wild 30-28 LSU victory, the first in Tiger Stadium versus the Tide since 1969.  LSU is 9-6 in the last 15 match-ups which include 3 OT games, a #1 vs. #2 Game of the Century and a BCS National Title Game.  Since 2003, the two teams have won 5 SEC Titles and 5 National Titles.

 And oh yea, there is that little thing about Saban becoming Alabama’s coach in 2007 after a failed stint in the NFL.

The teams meet this Saturday for what shapes up to be another physical battle with SEC and National Playoff implications on the line.  A few things to look for:

1. Can LSU continue its recent success running the ball?  The Tigers have averaged 254 yards per game on the ground the last three games.  UF, UK and UM are ranked 22^nd, 94^th and 33^rd respectively in national rushing defense.  Alabama is ranked 2^nd nationally only giving up 78 yards per game. This will be the most potent running game Alabama has faced up until this point in the season.  In 5 SEC games, the Tigers are averaging 45 rushes per game.  Tide opponents are only attempting 33 rushes per game in their 5 SEC games.  LSU wore down Ole Miss in the 4^th quarter. Can they do the same Saturday?
2. How does LSU handle Amari Cooper?  Cooper is second in the nation averaging 141 yards receiving per game. He is a game changer and the Tigers will have to account for him every play.  LSU is only giving up 158 yards per game through the air. (4^th nationally)
3. Can Blake Simms deal with the hostile environment better than Bo Wallace?  Wallace wilted under the constant noise and heckling of LSU fans.  It was reported he even jawed with LSU fans behind the Ole Miss bench in between series. I expect LSU fans to give Simms the same treatment if not worse.  How will he handle the pressure?

Against Ole Miss, LSU was able to get away with 4 turnovers, multiple dropped interceptions, multiple penalties, a missed FG and nothing in the punt return game.  Those things need to get cleaned up if the Tigers are to win.  This game reminds me of 2010 on a number of levels, a 7-1 Bama team coming in with title hopes still very much alive and a supportive media declaring them the best of the one loss teams.  LSU won and went on to finish 11-2 and set the stage for the 2011 season.

I expect a relatively low scoring game without much offensive flash.  I expect Alabama to mirror LSU and run the ball and try to hit some passes to Cooper.  I want to take the Tigers but I just fear LSU will not be able to “hide” Jennings in this game.  In the last 3 games he has attempted a total of 51 passes, 17 per game.  He is going to have to make a few plays and I just don’t trust him to come through.  Les has lost three in a row to Saban, on Saturday, make it four.  Let's hope I am wrong.

LSU 17 – Alabama 21

 

Final Four: Week 10

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Alabama v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Oregon

I moved Mississippi State out as they seemed to have peaked and they must play Alabama on the road. If the Tide get past LSU, the schedule really shapes up for them to finish 12-1 as SEC Champs.  I think the Big 12 ends up with a 10-2 champion which will leave the door open for the 12-1 Spartans.  I also like Oregon's chances to win out and finish as a 12-1 Pac-12 champ.