LSU 2015 Preview

 

 

2015 is LSU’s 11th season under Les Miles, and accordingly, another season with ominous questions about the QB position.  Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris will again compete for the starting spot on another talented LSU squad.  Neither has inspired much confidence in their careers at LSU.  Jennings has career numbers of 124 of 256 for 1,792 yards, 8 INT’s and 12 TD’s.  While his completion percentage is a wretched 48.4%, his 7 yards per attempt is…average.  There are just not a lot of good things to say about Jennings play or his numbers.  Harris has so few snaps under his belt the numbers are almost meaningless.  It’s undisputed that Harris has the most talent and upside.  But Jennings has the experience.

2015 is LSU’s 11th season under Les Miles, and accordingly, another season with ominous questions about the QB position.  Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris will again compete for the starting spot on another talented LSU squad.

The general consensus coming out of fall practice is that Harris has pulled away from Jennings and will eventually be the starter.  TAKE IT TO THE BANK, unless Harris gets hurt, he will be the starter for LSU’s opening game.

The rest of the team is in very good shape.  A quick preview of the offense and defense:

OFFENSE

The offensive line has a mix of experience and youth.  Last season LSU was able to run effectively at times against 8 man fronts.  With a (hopefully) improved passing game, this group is talented enough to lead LSU to a big season.  All the skill players are back which should help the passing game move forward.  Leonard Fournette is a beast and will only be better this season.  He is getting a lot of talk for the Heisman which is great for him and LSU, but he won’t win it.  Not because he’s not talented enough, but because of two factors out of his control.  Number one, he won’t get enough touches.  He really needs to get between 25-30 a game to get the kind of numbers needed to push for that top spot.  Number two, LSU just is not good enough as a team to push for a spot in the playoffs.  But an invite to New York is a definite possibility.

DEFENSE

The departure of John Chavis will make this an interesting transition year for the defense.  The secondary is the star unit on that side of the ball.  Jalen Mills has started since his freshmen year and can be counted on to play well every week.  Jamal Adams is an elite player who will eventually be a first round draft pick.  The defensive line has question marks but Davon Godchaux and Christian Lacouture should be solid in the middle.  Kendall Beckwith is an All-SEC player at middle linebacker and will anchor LSU’s defense.  This unit has future NFL players all over the field.  If new coordinator Kevin Steele can get everyone on the same page, look out.

Odds and Ends

* Over the last 10 years, LSU has the 6^th best home winning percentage in college football at 87.5%.  That also ranks 1^st in the SEC.  Think about that for a moment.  While the SEC won an unprecedented SEVEN national titles in a row and clearly staked its claim as the toughest conference in America, Tiger Stadium was the toughest SEC venue for opponents to “secure victory.”  Well done Tigers.  Those on the field and those in the stands can take a bow.

* Since 2009, the Tigers are 34-4 in Tiger Stadium.  The only losses coming to a Tebow led Gators team that finished 13-1 (2009), eventual National Champion Alabama (2012), a Mississippi State team that reached the #1 spot in the polls that season (2014) and an Alabama squad that reached the College Football Playoff (2014).  

* LSU ranks 13th in the country and 2nd in the SEC in conference winning percentage over that last 10 years.  Miles has won 69% of his SEC games since arriving.  As expected, Bama is 1st in the SEC winning 76.5% of its conference games over that same period.

* LSU has won 49 consecutive non-conference games, the longest in FBS history.  With LSU's non-conference schedule this season, the Tigers are a good bet to get to 53 in a row.

Final Thoughts

It’s undisputed that LSU is one of the more talented teams in the country.  But the question has always been, “who is going to play quarterback for the Tigers?”  With Brandon Harris under center, LSU becomes a real wild card in the SEC West.  As noted earlier, LSU has been dominant at home.  The only team I see that has the potential to be good enough to come into Tiger Stadium this season and get a win is Auburn.  Texas A&M and Arkansas will be real tests while I expect Florida to struggle.  The big road games are obviously Alabama and Ole Miss.

Given the news coming out of camp and what I have heard through a few people I trust, I am confident Harris will be the starter this season.  I’ve updated my preview for the SEC West based on Harris’ potential at the QB position.  I think the Tigers can go 10-2 this season, if not better.  If LSU can get past Miss. State and Auburn early, the Tigers could go into the Alabama game 8-0.  Now wouldn’t that be something?

SEC West

This is possibly the toughest year to try and pick the winner of the SEC West.  There are so many questions about each team. 

Alabama is loaded again, but all of the top skill guys are gone (Sims, Yeldon and Cooper).  The offensive line is relatively inexperienced with only 40 starts between the entire unit.  Compare that to Ole Miss which has a whopping 120 starts between its returning offensive linemen.  The defense will be top notch as always.  The Tide get Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee at home but must travel to Auburn and Georgia.

Arkansas is a real wild card this season.  The Hogs were very close to pulling early season upsets before going 3-1 to end the year.  During that four game stretch, Arkansas beat LSU, Ole Miss and Texas by a combined score of 78-7.  Plenty of experience returns on both sides of the ball including senior QB Brandon Allen.  Arkansas plays Auburn at home but must visit Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU.

 

Auburn probably has the best QB in the league but only returns two starters on offense.  The defense will improve under Muschamp but by how much remains to be seen.  Using Phil Steele’s calculations, Auburn ranks 115^th of 128 teams in returning experience.  The Tigers will have a lot of learning to do as the season progresses. Auburn gets Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama at home with road trips to LSU and Arkansas.

LSU has been plagued by poor QB play.  It appears Harris will be the starter for LSU on opening night.  Effective QB play could make LSU a contender in the SEC West. The Tigers return many key players on both sides of the ball but questions will be asked about the defense led by new coordinator Kevin Steele.  LSU has regressed a bit each year since 2011.  The Tigers get Florida, Texas A&M, Auburn and Arkansas at home but must travel to Ole Miss and Alabama.

Mississippi State had a fantastic year in 2014.  But it won’t be repeated in 2015.  There are way too many losses on the offensive line.  The schedule will be markedly tougher as well as State gets LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss at home while traveling to Auburn, A&M, Arkansas and Mizzu.

Ole Miss is again a media darling with multiple publications placing them right outside of the Top 10.  The hype may be warranted. As I mentioned earlier, the OL is loaded with experience.  Clemson transfer Chad Kelly replaces “Good/Bad” Bo Wallace at QB.  The defense was nasty last year but ultimately wore down as the season went on giving up 35, 30, 17 and 42 in the last four games of the season vs. FBS competition.  The home schedule includes Arkansas and LSU with away trips to Alabama, Auburn and Florida.

Texas A&M was supposed to be the “big” addition to the league in 2012.  But Missouri has easily outclassed A&M the past three seasons.  Since joining the league, the Aggies are 13-11 in conference play.  The Mizzu Tigers are a 16-12 in conference which includes two trips to the SEC title game.  A&M will have a new starter at QB as Kenny Hill was eventually benched last season and transferred.  The defense will be better with John Chavis taking over.  But there is a question of whether his defense will be as efficient with A&M’s up tempo style on offense.  A&M has road games at LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss and home dates with Alabama and Auburn.

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Auburn
4. Ole Miss
5. Arkansas
6. Texas A&M
7. Miss. State

2015 SEC Preview

I literally copied this from last year’s preseason post.  Again there is a big turnover at the QB position in the SEC this season with Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Ole Miss all losing their starters from 2014.  Add that to the questions about LSU and Vandy and you have quite a few unknowns going into 2015.

A few thoughts:

* Here is a breakdown of the 28 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	10	7-3
Junior	11	6-5
Sophomore	7	1-6
Freshman	0	0-0

* I beat this dead horse every year, but the odds are heavily stacked against teams with underclass QB’s.  To put this in perspective, while Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel both won Heisman Trophies as underclassmen, neither won the division in those Heisman seasons.

* While the consensus seems to be that Alabama and Georgia will meet in Atlanta for the SEC Title, I'm going to go in a little bit different direction.  From the East, I'm picking Tennessee to make it back to the SEC Championship game for the first time since 2007.  The Vols have recruited very well and live in the much less fearsome SEC East.  I also like Alabama to win the West.  The Tide are again loaded and there are just too many questions from the other contenders.

* Alabama will win the SEC and make it to the CFP only to again lose in the semi-finals to...Ohio State.  

Another frustrating loss...

Leonard Fournette dashes for an 89 yard touchdown. 

In a trend that has become all too familiar, an LSU opponent made a late drive to beat the Tigers at the buzzer.  Over the last three seasons, LSU has lost to Clemson, Ole Miss and now Notre Dame on last second FG’s.  Throw in the losses to Bama in ‘12 and ’14 and you have a good heaping of late game misery.  While the defense must take a big chunk of the blame of those loses, LSU’s inability on offense to put anyone away has repeatedly hurt them.  Many of those tight games Miles was winning early in his tenure at LSU are going the other way.  LSU is only 6-5 the last two years in games decided by 7 points or less. 

Observations:

* The offense played well enough to win but the defense was just atrocious.  ND converted on 11 of 17 third down conversions. SEVENTEEN third down plays!!  The Tigers could not get off the field.  

*Jalen Collins was abused all game. 

*Again, LSU got zero pressure with the front four. 

*Jamal Adams is an All-American type player.

*On offense, LSU had 9 drives, four TD’s, a blocked FG, a failed Fake FG and three punts.  I’m tired of talking about Jennings and his short comings.  He did OK with the only glaring mistake the fumble in the second half.   

*I disagreed with the fake FG at the end of the first half.  If LSU takes the points there, they get the ball to start the second half and take the lead.  Those 3 points were obviously huge for the game.  Had Miles saved that fake FG he could have used it in the second half instead of trying a 40 yard FG that ND blocked.

*I also disagreed with the decision to punt on 4^th and 1 with six minutes left in the game.  Fournette was unstoppable and LSU would have had an excellent chance to convert.  Sure enough, LSU punted and never saw the ball again. 

*Miles is now 6-4 in bowl games at LSU, 2-4 in the last six.

Some folks may be optimistic about next season.  I’m not in that group.  I saw zero growth at the QB position.  The offensive line will need to be rebuilt with Collins and Porter departing (and possibly Alexander and Hawkins leaving as well).  The defense has slowly slipped since the 2011 monster year.  LSU plays at Ole Miss and Alabama which I expect to be losses.  The Tigers also travel to South Carolina, Syracuse and State.  There is probably another loss amongst that group of games.  LSU’s home schedule is filled with Florida, Arkansas, A&M and Auburn.  Does anyone expect LSU to go 4-0 against that line-up?

Another 8-4 season in 2015 will put Miles squarely on the hot seat for 2016.  In the last 7 years, Miles has delivered one division title and one “BCS” bowl appearance.  Is that good enough?  It will be interesting to see how the next few years play out. 

Keep the Faith.

Geaux Tigers.

Music City Bowl Preview

 

LSU will play Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl to end the season.  I like the match up and so does Vegas as the Tigers are 8.5 point favorites.  LSU should be able to run the ball and hopefully force turnover machine Everett Golson to revert to form. (14 INT's and 8 Fumbles)

A few things to look for:

1. The number 1 question for today and the upcoming months is, “who will be LSU’s starter at QB for 2015?”  The job is wide open if Harris has the smarts and work ethic to take it.  Jennings has been extremely poor which has hamstrung the entire offense and coaching staff.  The next few weeks are an opportunity for both QB’s to improve.  This game is an audition for next year.
2. Can Fournette top 1,000 yards rushing?  I like his chances.  Notre Dame gave up about 4.8 yards per carry and 244 yards a game over the last five weeks of the season. 
3. Can the LSU front four get any pass rush?  Notre Dame has given up 28 sacks this year.  But LSU ranks 100^th in the country with only 19 sacks all season.

Given time to prepare, Les Miles has had plenty of success coming up with solid game plans.  (Miles is 16-3 in season openers and bowl games).  Look for a heavy dose of Fournette and some read option.  Harris will probably play, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing.  The defense will have some success but LSU can’t put anyone away so this will be another one possession game.

LSU 27 – ND 20

Bottoming Out

bottom out

 /ˈbɑt̬·əˈmɑʊt/

verb — phrasal verb with bottom

› to reach the lowest point in a changing situation, before any improvement begins

 

 

I think that term is apt, not just for this season but for the Les Miles tenure at LSU.  Gaining the fewest yards since a 1975 game against Texas A&M, the LSU offense defined futility.  In reality we should not be surprised by this outcome, a tough loss to Alabama, an offense regressing each week and a hungry opponent all spelled doom for the Tigers.

While I hate to read too much into one game, this weekend was a microcosm of the biggest failure of the Mile era, the inability to develop QB’s and put out a creative offensive game plan.  I’m not going to rehash the failures of Mr. Miles in respect to the QB’s, but you can read my in depth break down from a few weeks ago.

I’m not even going to delve into the gory details of the game.  The defense played well enough to win, the offense was an absolute joke…again. 

So the question is, what’s next?

Unfortunately, I fear, more of the same.  There is no savior at QB on the horizon and even if there was, I don’t trust Miles to actually “turn over” the offense to his offensive coordinator like he has done on the defensive side of the ball. 

My thoughts going forward are this:

1.      Miles is NOT going anywhere for the foreseeable future.  Unless he somehow ends up at Michigan, he will be LSU’s coach until he retires or gets fired.  I do not think he deserves to be fired, but I also have little faith he will lead LSU to any more titles of any kind.

2.      What would it take for the administration to move on him?  Probably three consecutive 7-6 seasons or two consecutive losing seasons.  Mack Brown and Will Muschamp may give us a window into what could force a change.  Brown was 30-21 over his last four seasons, 18-17 in the Big XII.  Muschamp was 27-20 overall and 17-15 in the SEC in his tenure at Florida.

3.      Miles has gone 8-0, 6-2, 5-3 and 3-4 in the SEC the last four seasons.  There has been a clear downward trend in LSU’s conference performance.  A loss versus A&M would leave the Tigers 14-10 in the SEC over the last three years, a 58% winning percentage. Another 3-5 SEC record in 2015 would leave Miles at 17-15 over four seasons, exactly where Muschamp finished when he was shown the door at Florida.

4.      Miles has a much better resume than Muschamp and thus will have the 2015 and 2016 seasons to get LSU back to the type of success he has had earlier in his tenure.  But he is going to have to solve the QB situation and get the offense moving.

As much as this feels like the bottom, it could get worse.  But it could also get better with so many young players returning next season.  It is difficult to reconcile the games we have seen this season occurring with the same team.  LSU was gritty enough to beat Wisconsin, Florida and Ole Miss while pushing Alabama to the absolute limit.  But this is the same group of players that got blown out by Auburn, dominated by Miss. State and embarrassed by Arkansas.

My personal feeling is that Miles has gotten stale and LSU could do with a change.  I think there are talented coaches out there that could jump start the program and get the Tigers trending in the right direction.  Should Miles be fired? Absolutely not.  But having said that, I personally don’t have much, if any, faith in him bringing LSU the glory he has in the past.  The worst thing you can do to a fan is take away hope, and that’s what Mr. Miles is doing to my fandom.

 

Final Four: Week 11

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Alabama v. (4) Ohio State

(2)   FSU v. (3) Oregon

National Championship
FSU v. Ohio State

Alabama Owns LSU

While walking back to my car after the game I was literally ready to quit LSU football.  I asked myself, why am I dumping so much time, energy and emotion into an activity that so frequently sucks the life out of me.  I’m putting all this effort into a hobby with a coach that I don’t believe in leading a bunch of college kids playing a game.  Maybe Alabama brings out the worst me.  Just this past Friday I told myself I was beyond the old cliché, “losing hurts more than winning feels good.”  Nope, it is now Monday and I am still deeply bothered by this one.

A few thoughts:

1. The defense was lights out.  Sure I was frustrated by the game tying FG with :03 seconds left, but giving up only 13 points in regulation to a team that was averaging 36.5 points per game was a winning effort.  Simms and Co. deserve some credit for executing when everything was on the line.
2. Jennings was extremely poor...again.  Sure there were drops, but he finished 8 of 26 for 76 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. (QB rating of 60.32)   His per attempt average was 2.9 yards for the game.  Harris needs to come off the bench this week and get some meaningful snaps.  The season is “essentially done,” the coaches have three games to see what Harris can do in some limited spots.
3. I’m not going to dwell on it, but the refs did us no favors.  The unsportsmanlike call on Alexander was questionable, but why are you putting yourself in that situation?  You have the game on the line and you lose your composure at the worst possible moment?  Why are you giving the refs an opportunity to affect the game?  That’s why you have lost 4 in a row to Alabama.  Remember 2012? A second quarter run by Jeremy Hill gets LSU to the Alabama 13.  JC Copeland gets called for unnecessary roughness and moves the ball back to the 28.  LSU ends up trying a fake FG and getting nothing on the drive.  That’s not winning football.
4. Kickoffs were terrible all night culminating in the final kickoff going out of bounds.  Again, that's not winning football.
5. What’s most frustrating is that the game played out in LSU’s favor and the Tigers STILL couldn’t close the deal.  It’s painful to say, but Saban and Alabama own Miles and LSU.  More deeply troubling is this simple truth.  If a recruit with no particular allegiance to LSU or Alabama narrows down his choice between the schools, why would he choose the Tigers?  It’s clear championships are NOT coming to Baton Rouge any time soon.  The coaches aren’t good enough and the QB situation has never been solved.  Is LSU a college football program or an NFL prep school?

Hopefully the Tigers can bounce back this weekend on the road in Fayetteville.  Arkansas is 4-5 and still in bowl contention.  Miles is 25-1 after a loss, the only blemish a two game losing streak to end the 2008 regular season.  Defensively, the Hogs are giving up 438 yards and 31 points a game in 5 SEC contests. Offensively, Arkansas is averaging about 43 yards more a game than the Tigers in conference play.  LSU is 6-5 at Arkansas since the beginning of divisional play in 1992.  Expect another close game Saturday.  LSU’s defense should contain Arkansas, but LSU’s anemic passing attack will keep the Tigers from pulling away.  Vegas has LSU a 2.5 point underdog.  Does the smart money know something?

LSU 24 – Hogs 20

 

 

Final Four: Week 11

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) TCU
(2)   Alabama v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Alabama

Bama...Bama...Bama won't you bite my....

Since Saban’s arrival in 2000, Alabama has been the signature game on the Tiger’s schedule.  Of course this was always a big game for LSU fans going back to the 60’s, but LSU just wasn’t on par with many of Bear Bryant’s teams. From 1964 to 1981, LSU was 2-16 against the Tide.  Things improved a bit upon Bryant’s retirement in 1982, as LSU went 6-11-1 in the next 18 games.  Better, but clearly Alabama held the upper hand.

But in 2000, Alabama travelled to Baton Rouge for a wild 30-28 LSU victory, the first in Tiger Stadium versus the Tide since 1969.  LSU is 9-6 in the last 15 match-ups which include 3 OT games, a #1 vs. #2 Game of the Century and a BCS National Title Game.  Since 2003, the two teams have won 5 SEC Titles and 5 National Titles.

 And oh yea, there is that little thing about Saban becoming Alabama’s coach in 2007 after a failed stint in the NFL.

The teams meet this Saturday for what shapes up to be another physical battle with SEC and National Playoff implications on the line.  A few things to look for:

1. Can LSU continue its recent success running the ball?  The Tigers have averaged 254 yards per game on the ground the last three games.  UF, UK and UM are ranked 22^nd, 94^th and 33^rd respectively in national rushing defense.  Alabama is ranked 2^nd nationally only giving up 78 yards per game. This will be the most potent running game Alabama has faced up until this point in the season.  In 5 SEC games, the Tigers are averaging 45 rushes per game.  Tide opponents are only attempting 33 rushes per game in their 5 SEC games.  LSU wore down Ole Miss in the 4^th quarter. Can they do the same Saturday?
2. How does LSU handle Amari Cooper?  Cooper is second in the nation averaging 141 yards receiving per game. He is a game changer and the Tigers will have to account for him every play.  LSU is only giving up 158 yards per game through the air. (4^th nationally)
3. Can Blake Simms deal with the hostile environment better than Bo Wallace?  Wallace wilted under the constant noise and heckling of LSU fans.  It was reported he even jawed with LSU fans behind the Ole Miss bench in between series. I expect LSU fans to give Simms the same treatment if not worse.  How will he handle the pressure?

Against Ole Miss, LSU was able to get away with 4 turnovers, multiple dropped interceptions, multiple penalties, a missed FG and nothing in the punt return game.  Those things need to get cleaned up if the Tigers are to win.  This game reminds me of 2010 on a number of levels, a 7-1 Bama team coming in with title hopes still very much alive and a supportive media declaring them the best of the one loss teams.  LSU won and went on to finish 11-2 and set the stage for the 2011 season.

I expect a relatively low scoring game without much offensive flash.  I expect Alabama to mirror LSU and run the ball and try to hit some passes to Cooper.  I want to take the Tigers but I just fear LSU will not be able to “hide” Jennings in this game.  In the last 3 games he has attempted a total of 51 passes, 17 per game.  He is going to have to make a few plays and I just don’t trust him to come through.  Les has lost three in a row to Saban, on Saturday, make it four.  Let's hope I am wrong.

LSU 17 – Alabama 21

 

Final Four: Week 10

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Alabama v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Oregon

I moved Mississippi State out as they seemed to have peaked and they must play Alabama on the road. If the Tide get past LSU, the schedule really shapes up for them to finish 12-1 as SEC Champs.  I think the Big 12 ends up with a 10-2 champion which will leave the door open for the 12-1 Spartans.  I also like Oregon's chances to win out and finish as a 12-1 Pac-12 champ.

 

The Magnolia Bowl

I love the smell of corn dogs on a Saturday Night.  Smells like...VICTORY!!

LSU won an old school slugfest Saturday night rushing for over 250 yards against the vaunted “Land Shark” defense of Ole Miss.  Leonard Fournette went off for 211 all-purpose yards while LSU’s defense held UM to 313 yards of offense and only 7 points.  Plus there were some awesome signs on campus for college game day. (CLICK HERE)

A few observations:

Offense

1. LSU’s running game was impressive.  Ole Miss has been very stout against the run but LSU ran 55 times for 4.8 yards a carry. Obviously the offensive line is gelling.
2. Jennings is still limited but he had some really nice throws.  The pass down the middle to Fournette was perfect and the play action TD pass to Stokes were huge plays which Jennings executed.  He is at his best rolling out; let’s see if that enters the game plan more.
3. I thought the play calling was great, especially in the first half.  The Tigers mixed it up a little and had a great deal of success.  If not for the turnovers, LSU would have been up by 10 early on the Rebels.

Defense

1. LSU’s front 7 is so much better than they were in week 1.  Over the last 3 weeks, LSU has given up only an average of 110 yards rushing per game and 3.5 yards per carry.
2. Too many dropped interceptions.  Opportunities like that must be pounced upon.
3. The Tigers were able to get pressure on Wallace and make him uncomfortable. His QB rating of 91 for the game is 60 points lower than his average for the season.

LSU made enough mistakes, four turnovers, 5 penalties and a few dropped INT’s to hand the game to Ole Miss.  But the defense kept repeatedly bailing out the Tigers, at one point forcing four consecutive 3 and outs in the second half.

It’s clear that after a shaky start, this team is improving every week.  That’s a sign of good coaching and the player’s buying into LSU’s system.

On November 8, Alabama rolls into town.  The Crimson Tide will be the favorites with a potential SEC West Title and College Playoff berth on the line.  LSU will still mathematically be in the mix for the West.  The season already has a new look with the victory over Ole Miss.  How much better would it be with a win over hated Alabama?

 

Final Four: Week 9

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Mississippi State v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Mississippi State

The first rankings come out today and like everyone else I am very curious to see what the selection committee has in store.  I’ve noticed a number of talking heads have predicted that Alabama will be in the top four.  I don’t see it.  They have a quality win against West Virginia, but not much else.  Texas A&M is train wreck and the Tide lost their toughest game all season, the visit to Oxford back on October 4.  At this point, how can you put Bama in over Ole Miss given the head to head results?  Auburn has done more as well, bombing LSU and winning at K-State.  Notre Dame is in the mix, but their best win was at home by 3 over 5-3 Stanford.  This first set of rankings will have everyone buzzing, but there is a TON of football left.  Let’s enjoy trip rather than obsess over the destination.

Bowl Bound

It’s hard to believe that only a few weeks ago there was some concern about LSU reaching bowl eligibility.  After the 41-7 blowout at Auburn, the Tigers looked in desperate trouble.  But two weeks later the Tigers are 6-2 and guaranteed a 15^th consecutive bowl appearance.

The Tigers dominated Kentucky in all phase of the game Saturday night playing its most complete game of the season.  A few observations:

* Easily the best game of the season for special teams. Tre’Davious White had 114 yards on four punt returns with a 67 yard return for a TD.

* The running game pounded out 303 yards with Magee leading the way with 127 yards and 2 TD’s.  Great to see #18 have such a solid game.

* The defense was stout holding UK to 217 yards on 63 plays and giving up only 3 points.  The Tigers are ranked 9^th in the SEC in total defense counting only conference games.  Before the Florida game, LSU was ranked dead last in the conference.

* Jennings managed the game, but I’m not seeing much growth in his game.  I think he is limited in what he can do for the Tigers.  But he has to be the #1 guy right now.  He seems more comfortable on roll outs and getting out of the pocket.  The coaches need to give him a few more first down play action opportunities to continue to build his confidence.  He currently ranks 62^nd nationally in QB efficiency and ranks outside the top 100 in completion percentage.

* I know fans get frustrated with LSU’s offensive game plan, but the coaching staff has to work around the limitations at the QB position.  Anthony Jennings throwing 30 times a contest isn’t going to win games for the Tigers right now.

* Not a stellar night for Leonard Fournette, but he is on pace to gain 1600+ all-purpose yards on the season, the most by a freshman in LSU history.

* LSU’s line backing corps has really improved as the season has gone along.  Kwon Alexander and Kendall Beckwith are starting to make some plays.

Looking Ahead

Huge game this weekend against #3 Ole Miss.  The Rebels come in 7-0 and both teams are ranked while playing in Tiger Stadium for the first time since 1970.  The Tigers have won 5 of the last 6 in the series played in Tiger Stadium.  What to look for:

1. Can LSU get out the gates quickly?  Against Boise State, Memphis, Alabama and Tennessee, Ole Miss only scored a combined 31 points in the first half.  That’s less than 8 points per game for those four games.  In those same games, the Rebels put up 85 points in the second half, over 21 points per game.  It will be key for LSU to be productive in the first half and try to have a lead at half time. Les Miles is 79-7 when leading at the half.
2. Can LSU run the ball against the #6 run defense in the country?  Ole Miss is giving up only 2.87 yards a carry this season.  LSU will need to run some option and spread formations to give the running game a chance.
3. How will Bo Wallace handle the largest crowd in the history of Tiger Stadium?  If the game stays close, like I expect it to, the atmosphere will electric all night.

As much as I would love to see a magical night in Tiger Stadium, I just don’t see the Tigers with enough offensive firepower to win the game.  Ole Miss’ defense is national championship caliber and I don’t think Jennings is up to the task.  I expect a great effort, but Ole Miss has a special team this season.

Rebels 24 – LSU 13

 

Final Four: Week 8

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Mississippi State v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Mississippi State

100 and Counting

Leonard Fournette spinning and winning for the Tigers.

 How fitting that Les Miles’ 100^th victory at LSU was…well…classic Les Miles.  The Tigers ran for 195 yards led by Leonard Fournette’s 140 yards and two TD’s.  LSU forced 3 Florida turnovers and didn’t turn it over themselves once.  The passing game was fairly anemic but Jennings made a few critical plays to keep drives going.  Finally, just when it looked like the Tigers had grabbed the game, they give up a 73 yard pass play to Demarcus Robinson.  But the defense stiffens, Florida drops a sure TD pass and the game is tied 27 all.  Then to compound matters, LSU goes three and out and punts to UF with a minute left.  The Gators seem on the verge of winning the game, but Magic Miles pulls a purple Leprechaun from his arse and LSU picks off Driskel leading to Colby Delahoussaye’s 50 yard game winning FG.

Yea, classic Miles.

I made the trip to Gainesville and it will not be a trip I soon forget.  The atmosphere was fantastic and the game was a thriller.  I’ve been reading write ups from the game and the general sentiment is that this was a weird/sloppy/frustrating contest.  Maybe being in the belly of the beast and coming out victorious is slanting my view, but I think this was a great win for THIS TEAM. 

Viewed through the prism of the 2014 Tigers, I saw improvement and execution.  I saw a young team that was destroyed last week execute in a VERY hostile environment this week.  I saw Leonard Fournette show why he was the #1 guy in the 2014 class.  I saw Anthony Jennings play within himself and give his team a chance to win.  I saw guys balling and leaving it out on the field when they could have folded a number of times.  I just don't think fan appreciate how tough it is for young players to go into a place like the Swamp and have success.

Yes, this team is flawed.  Sure, there is plenty of room for improvement.  Special teams punt coverage was a disaster.  8 penalties for 80 yards is unacceptable.  Jennings is still inaccurate.  Mistakes, both mental and physical were made.  But a win like this is great for this team and LSU’s program.  LSU is not winning the division, but there is plenty to play for.

A few other observations:

* Despite his struggles, Jennings QB rating is higher than Mettenberger’s 2012 season and Jefferson’s 2008 and 2010 seasons.

* It’s been a LONG time since I have watched an LSU game so close to the field (row 6).  The LSU players certainly look the part.  Beastly.

* I heard some horror stories about traveling to Gainesville, but we had a blast.  The fans were nice and nothing nasty was directed our way.  Great trip, great game.

Looking ahead:

Kentucky is 5-1 and an overtime loss away from 6-0.  All five of UK’s wins were at home, the loss was at Florida.  The Wildcats have only played one game against a team with a winning record (UF).   Things to watch for:

1. Red Zone Conversions: LSU is scoring TD’s on 77% of the trips into the red zone which places the Tigers 7^th in the nation.  UK is only converting at a 55% clip.
2. Can Fournette continue to improve?  The freshman is on pace to run for 930 yards and 11 TD’s.
3. UK runs a spread passing offense.  Will the front four be able to generate a pass rush to help LSU’s secondary?

LSU 30 - UK 20 

Final Four: Week 7

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Mississippi State v. (3) Oklahoma

National Championship

FSU v. Mississippi State

A View from the Bottom

Nick Marshall runs around hapless
 LSU defenders for a touchdown.

The last LSU coach to lose 41-7 to Auburn got his walking papers at the end of that season. I’m not saying Miles will or should be fired, but that game was a wakeup call to all of the problems with this team and the program in general.

* LSU is again lost at the QB position. This is Les Miles’ 10^th year at LSU and he has yet to figure out how to handle the QB’s, be it recruiting, playing time or development.  Look at the list of failures with one lone bright spot:

2005 class: Ryan Perrilloux.  Won 2007 SEC Title game for LSU.  Booted before 2008 season. Career Stats: 79 pass attempts, 55 rushes, 927 total yards, 10 TD’s.

2006 class: DID NOT SIGN A QB

2007 class: Jarrett Lee. Stayed at LSU for 5 years.  Led the SEC in QB efficiency in 2011 when he was benched for Jordan Jefferson. Career Stats: Appeared in 43 games.  Threw for 3,949 yards and 32 TD’s.

2008 class: Jordan Jefferson.  Don’t get me started.

2009 class: Chris Garrett. Never played a down for LSU.  Left after 1 year.  Russell Sheppard.  Never was going to play QB for LSU.  Undistinguished career.

2010 class: Zach Lee. Never played a down for LSU.  Signed baseball contract.

2011 class: Zach Mettenberger. Threw for 5,783 yards (No. 6 in LSU history) and 35 TDs (No. 5 in LSU history).  Led one of the most proficient offenses in school history in 2013 as the Tigers racked up 465 points (No. 4 in LSU history) and 5,893 total yards (No. 2 in LSU history) Stephen Rivers.  Transferred to Vandy in 2014.  2 career passes at LSU, both incomplete. Jerrard Randall.  Stayed at LSU and left after 2 seasons.  Never saw field.

2012 class: Jeremy Liggins. Never stepped foot on campus.  Currently plays for Ole Miss.

2013 class: Anthony Jennings. Currently embroiled in latest LSU QB merry-go-round.  Hayden Rettig. Transferred to Rutgers after one season.

2014 class: Brandon Harris. See Jennings status above.

* In four of those seasons 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2012 Miles didn’t sign a QB or essentially signed no one at the position.

* Mettenberger was the crowning achievement of Miles’ tenure in respect to the QB position, big, tall, pocket passer with the ability to deliver all over the field.  Z Mett is a prototypical NFL style pocket passer.  Yet here we are stuck with two “duel threat” QB’s in Jennings and Harris trying to run a pro-style offense.  Miles has obviously learned nothing. 

* Harris crapped the bed in Jordan Hare.  His throws were wild and he bailed out of the pocket too soon on multiple plays.  In retrospect, it probably would have been better to let Jennings start and bring Harris off the bench.  It seemed clear to me that he was overwhelmed by the game and the atmosphere.  There were plays to be made, but the moment was too big for him.

* The defensive talent drain is really showing.  The Tigers have no pass rush and it just makes everyone else look worse.  Then when players are in position, they are whiffing or missing tackles.  Here’s an ugly stat, LSU is giving up 7.73 yards per play in conference games (13^th in SEC).  I understand players wanting to get to the NFL, but why such a drain here?  Is Miles building a college football program, or an NFL minor league factory?

* The run was working on first down, but second and third down was a nightmare.  After leading the nation in third down conversions last year, the Tigers went 0 for 13 Saturday night.  Matter of fact, LSU is 2 for 26 in third down conversions in two SEC games.  That’s 7.69%.  Ouch.

LSU travels to Gainesville this weekend to take on the less than mighty Gators.  Florida’s offense is even worse than the Tigers, but the defense is still pretty nasty.  UF’s QB situation is about as settled as LSU’s.  This game will be a mess.  Expect lots of punts and a few field goals.  I will be traveling to the game, so pray for my safety.  On a positive note, Chase McCalip and I are 3-0 in road trips going back to 2000.  We will try and keep the streak alive.

LSU 12 – Gators 10

 

Final Four: Week 6

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Auburn v. (3) Oklahoma

National Championship

FSU v. Auburn