The Magnolia Bowl

I love the smell of corn dogs on a Saturday Night.  Smells like...VICTORY!!

LSU won an old school slugfest Saturday night rushing for over 250 yards against the vaunted “Land Shark” defense of Ole Miss.  Leonard Fournette went off for 211 all-purpose yards while LSU’s defense held UM to 313 yards of offense and only 7 points.  Plus there were some awesome signs on campus for college game day. (CLICK HERE)

A few observations:

Offense

1. LSU’s running game was impressive.  Ole Miss has been very stout against the run but LSU ran 55 times for 4.8 yards a carry. Obviously the offensive line is gelling.
2. Jennings is still limited but he had some really nice throws.  The pass down the middle to Fournette was perfect and the play action TD pass to Stokes were huge plays which Jennings executed.  He is at his best rolling out; let’s see if that enters the game plan more.
3. I thought the play calling was great, especially in the first half.  The Tigers mixed it up a little and had a great deal of success.  If not for the turnovers, LSU would have been up by 10 early on the Rebels.

Defense

1. LSU’s front 7 is so much better than they were in week 1.  Over the last 3 weeks, LSU has given up only an average of 110 yards rushing per game and 3.5 yards per carry.
2. Too many dropped interceptions.  Opportunities like that must be pounced upon.
3. The Tigers were able to get pressure on Wallace and make him uncomfortable. His QB rating of 91 for the game is 60 points lower than his average for the season.

LSU made enough mistakes, four turnovers, 5 penalties and a few dropped INT’s to hand the game to Ole Miss.  But the defense kept repeatedly bailing out the Tigers, at one point forcing four consecutive 3 and outs in the second half.

It’s clear that after a shaky start, this team is improving every week.  That’s a sign of good coaching and the player’s buying into LSU’s system.

On November 8, Alabama rolls into town.  The Crimson Tide will be the favorites with a potential SEC West Title and College Playoff berth on the line.  LSU will still mathematically be in the mix for the West.  The season already has a new look with the victory over Ole Miss.  How much better would it be with a win over hated Alabama?

 

Final Four: Week 9

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Mississippi State v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Mississippi State

The first rankings come out today and like everyone else I am very curious to see what the selection committee has in store.  I’ve noticed a number of talking heads have predicted that Alabama will be in the top four.  I don’t see it.  They have a quality win against West Virginia, but not much else.  Texas A&M is train wreck and the Tide lost their toughest game all season, the visit to Oxford back on October 4.  At this point, how can you put Bama in over Ole Miss given the head to head results?  Auburn has done more as well, bombing LSU and winning at K-State.  Notre Dame is in the mix, but their best win was at home by 3 over 5-3 Stanford.  This first set of rankings will have everyone buzzing, but there is a TON of football left.  Let’s enjoy trip rather than obsess over the destination.

Bowl Bound

It’s hard to believe that only a few weeks ago there was some concern about LSU reaching bowl eligibility.  After the 41-7 blowout at Auburn, the Tigers looked in desperate trouble.  But two weeks later the Tigers are 6-2 and guaranteed a 15^th consecutive bowl appearance.

The Tigers dominated Kentucky in all phase of the game Saturday night playing its most complete game of the season.  A few observations:

* Easily the best game of the season for special teams. Tre’Davious White had 114 yards on four punt returns with a 67 yard return for a TD.

* The running game pounded out 303 yards with Magee leading the way with 127 yards and 2 TD’s.  Great to see #18 have such a solid game.

* The defense was stout holding UK to 217 yards on 63 plays and giving up only 3 points.  The Tigers are ranked 9^th in the SEC in total defense counting only conference games.  Before the Florida game, LSU was ranked dead last in the conference.

* Jennings managed the game, but I’m not seeing much growth in his game.  I think he is limited in what he can do for the Tigers.  But he has to be the #1 guy right now.  He seems more comfortable on roll outs and getting out of the pocket.  The coaches need to give him a few more first down play action opportunities to continue to build his confidence.  He currently ranks 62^nd nationally in QB efficiency and ranks outside the top 100 in completion percentage.

* I know fans get frustrated with LSU’s offensive game plan, but the coaching staff has to work around the limitations at the QB position.  Anthony Jennings throwing 30 times a contest isn’t going to win games for the Tigers right now.

* Not a stellar night for Leonard Fournette, but he is on pace to gain 1600+ all-purpose yards on the season, the most by a freshman in LSU history.

* LSU’s line backing corps has really improved as the season has gone along.  Kwon Alexander and Kendall Beckwith are starting to make some plays.

Looking Ahead

Huge game this weekend against #3 Ole Miss.  The Rebels come in 7-0 and both teams are ranked while playing in Tiger Stadium for the first time since 1970.  The Tigers have won 5 of the last 6 in the series played in Tiger Stadium.  What to look for:

1. Can LSU get out the gates quickly?  Against Boise State, Memphis, Alabama and Tennessee, Ole Miss only scored a combined 31 points in the first half.  That’s less than 8 points per game for those four games.  In those same games, the Rebels put up 85 points in the second half, over 21 points per game.  It will be key for LSU to be productive in the first half and try to have a lead at half time. Les Miles is 79-7 when leading at the half.
2. Can LSU run the ball against the #6 run defense in the country?  Ole Miss is giving up only 2.87 yards a carry this season.  LSU will need to run some option and spread formations to give the running game a chance.
3. How will Bo Wallace handle the largest crowd in the history of Tiger Stadium?  If the game stays close, like I expect it to, the atmosphere will electric all night.

As much as I would love to see a magical night in Tiger Stadium, I just don’t see the Tigers with enough offensive firepower to win the game.  Ole Miss’ defense is national championship caliber and I don’t think Jennings is up to the task.  I expect a great effort, but Ole Miss has a special team this season.

Rebels 24 – LSU 13

 

Final Four: Week 8

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Mississippi State v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Mississippi State

100 and Counting

Leonard Fournette spinning and winning for the Tigers.

 How fitting that Les Miles’ 100^th victory at LSU was…well…classic Les Miles.  The Tigers ran for 195 yards led by Leonard Fournette’s 140 yards and two TD’s.  LSU forced 3 Florida turnovers and didn’t turn it over themselves once.  The passing game was fairly anemic but Jennings made a few critical plays to keep drives going.  Finally, just when it looked like the Tigers had grabbed the game, they give up a 73 yard pass play to Demarcus Robinson.  But the defense stiffens, Florida drops a sure TD pass and the game is tied 27 all.  Then to compound matters, LSU goes three and out and punts to UF with a minute left.  The Gators seem on the verge of winning the game, but Magic Miles pulls a purple Leprechaun from his arse and LSU picks off Driskel leading to Colby Delahoussaye’s 50 yard game winning FG.

Yea, classic Miles.

I made the trip to Gainesville and it will not be a trip I soon forget.  The atmosphere was fantastic and the game was a thriller.  I’ve been reading write ups from the game and the general sentiment is that this was a weird/sloppy/frustrating contest.  Maybe being in the belly of the beast and coming out victorious is slanting my view, but I think this was a great win for THIS TEAM. 

Viewed through the prism of the 2014 Tigers, I saw improvement and execution.  I saw a young team that was destroyed last week execute in a VERY hostile environment this week.  I saw Leonard Fournette show why he was the #1 guy in the 2014 class.  I saw Anthony Jennings play within himself and give his team a chance to win.  I saw guys balling and leaving it out on the field when they could have folded a number of times.  I just don't think fan appreciate how tough it is for young players to go into a place like the Swamp and have success.

Yes, this team is flawed.  Sure, there is plenty of room for improvement.  Special teams punt coverage was a disaster.  8 penalties for 80 yards is unacceptable.  Jennings is still inaccurate.  Mistakes, both mental and physical were made.  But a win like this is great for this team and LSU’s program.  LSU is not winning the division, but there is plenty to play for.

A few other observations:

* Despite his struggles, Jennings QB rating is higher than Mettenberger’s 2012 season and Jefferson’s 2008 and 2010 seasons.

* It’s been a LONG time since I have watched an LSU game so close to the field (row 6).  The LSU players certainly look the part.  Beastly.

* I heard some horror stories about traveling to Gainesville, but we had a blast.  The fans were nice and nothing nasty was directed our way.  Great trip, great game.

Looking ahead:

Kentucky is 5-1 and an overtime loss away from 6-0.  All five of UK’s wins were at home, the loss was at Florida.  The Wildcats have only played one game against a team with a winning record (UF).   Things to watch for:

1. Red Zone Conversions: LSU is scoring TD’s on 77% of the trips into the red zone which places the Tigers 7^th in the nation.  UK is only converting at a 55% clip.
2. Can Fournette continue to improve?  The freshman is on pace to run for 930 yards and 11 TD’s.
3. UK runs a spread passing offense.  Will the front four be able to generate a pass rush to help LSU’s secondary?

LSU 30 - UK 20 

Final Four: Week 7

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Mississippi State v. (3) Oklahoma

National Championship

FSU v. Mississippi State

A View from the Bottom

Nick Marshall runs around hapless
 LSU defenders for a touchdown.

The last LSU coach to lose 41-7 to Auburn got his walking papers at the end of that season. I’m not saying Miles will or should be fired, but that game was a wakeup call to all of the problems with this team and the program in general.

* LSU is again lost at the QB position. This is Les Miles’ 10^th year at LSU and he has yet to figure out how to handle the QB’s, be it recruiting, playing time or development.  Look at the list of failures with one lone bright spot:

2005 class: Ryan Perrilloux.  Won 2007 SEC Title game for LSU.  Booted before 2008 season. Career Stats: 79 pass attempts, 55 rushes, 927 total yards, 10 TD’s.

2006 class: DID NOT SIGN A QB

2007 class: Jarrett Lee. Stayed at LSU for 5 years.  Led the SEC in QB efficiency in 2011 when he was benched for Jordan Jefferson. Career Stats: Appeared in 43 games.  Threw for 3,949 yards and 32 TD’s.

2008 class: Jordan Jefferson.  Don’t get me started.

2009 class: Chris Garrett. Never played a down for LSU.  Left after 1 year.  Russell Sheppard.  Never was going to play QB for LSU.  Undistinguished career.

2010 class: Zach Lee. Never played a down for LSU.  Signed baseball contract.

2011 class: Zach Mettenberger. Threw for 5,783 yards (No. 6 in LSU history) and 35 TDs (No. 5 in LSU history).  Led one of the most proficient offenses in school history in 2013 as the Tigers racked up 465 points (No. 4 in LSU history) and 5,893 total yards (No. 2 in LSU history) Stephen Rivers.  Transferred to Vandy in 2014.  2 career passes at LSU, both incomplete. Jerrard Randall.  Stayed at LSU and left after 2 seasons.  Never saw field.

2012 class: Jeremy Liggins. Never stepped foot on campus.  Currently plays for Ole Miss.

2013 class: Anthony Jennings. Currently embroiled in latest LSU QB merry-go-round.  Hayden Rettig. Transferred to Rutgers after one season.

2014 class: Brandon Harris. See Jennings status above.

* In four of those seasons 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2012 Miles didn’t sign a QB or essentially signed no one at the position.

* Mettenberger was the crowning achievement of Miles’ tenure in respect to the QB position, big, tall, pocket passer with the ability to deliver all over the field.  Z Mett is a prototypical NFL style pocket passer.  Yet here we are stuck with two “duel threat” QB’s in Jennings and Harris trying to run a pro-style offense.  Miles has obviously learned nothing. 

* Harris crapped the bed in Jordan Hare.  His throws were wild and he bailed out of the pocket too soon on multiple plays.  In retrospect, it probably would have been better to let Jennings start and bring Harris off the bench.  It seemed clear to me that he was overwhelmed by the game and the atmosphere.  There were plays to be made, but the moment was too big for him.

* The defensive talent drain is really showing.  The Tigers have no pass rush and it just makes everyone else look worse.  Then when players are in position, they are whiffing or missing tackles.  Here’s an ugly stat, LSU is giving up 7.73 yards per play in conference games (13^th in SEC).  I understand players wanting to get to the NFL, but why such a drain here?  Is Miles building a college football program, or an NFL minor league factory?

* The run was working on first down, but second and third down was a nightmare.  After leading the nation in third down conversions last year, the Tigers went 0 for 13 Saturday night.  Matter of fact, LSU is 2 for 26 in third down conversions in two SEC games.  That’s 7.69%.  Ouch.

LSU travels to Gainesville this weekend to take on the less than mighty Gators.  Florida’s offense is even worse than the Tigers, but the defense is still pretty nasty.  UF’s QB situation is about as settled as LSU’s.  This game will be a mess.  Expect lots of punts and a few field goals.  I will be traveling to the game, so pray for my safety.  On a positive note, Chase McCalip and I are 3-0 in road trips going back to 2000.  We will try and keep the streak alive.

LSU 12 – Gators 10

 

Final Four: Week 6

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   FSU v. (4) Michigan State
(2)   Auburn v. (3) Oklahoma

National Championship

FSU v. Auburn

A Star is Born?

Now that is a Heisman pose!

“Brutal” is about the only thing I can say about Anthony Jennings’ performance against New Mexico State.  The few folks that showed up saw LSU’s starting quarterback implode before their eyes.  Jennings finished with a -21.52 passer rating.  I didn’t know you could have a negative passer rating.  This wasn’t against the Steel Curtain, Alabama’s 2011 defense or the Monsters of the Midway.  This was against the Aggies of New Mexico State.  After turning the ball over three times, Miles mercifully pulled Jennings and inserted Harris who proceeded to lead LSU on 7 straight TD drives.

I didn’t like the fans booing Jennings.  He played poorly, but from everything that I have seen, he’s a team player and has done nothing wrong off the field.  I understood fan’s frustrations, but booing Jennings as he left the field was uncalled for.  But hey, you pay your money, it’s a free country, you can “boo” all you want.   (*As a side note, I loudly booed Jordan Jefferson and Les Miles as Jefferson entered the 2011 UK game.  Call me a hypocrite, but I felt the situations were very different.)

Given the competition, I’m not ready to say Harris is going to be a great player; but I’m confident in saying Jennings will not.  Thus far this season, Harris is 22 of 30 for 394 yards and 6 TD’s/1 INT.  His QB rating is absurd. 

But how will he perform in one of the toughest venues in the country at Jordan-Hare Stadium?  Auburn is just as difficult a place to play as LSU.  The biggest challenge Harris will face will be controlling his emotions.  He will have to play very well for LSU to win as I expect Auburn to score…a lot. 

 LSU has been soft up the middle and unless the DT’s can slow down the running game, it will be a long night for the Bengal Tigers.  In the two games versus Arkansas and K-State, Auburn averaged 215 yards on the ground gaining 4.62 yards per carry. Marshall is probably an even better runner than MSU’s Prescott who torched LSU for 105 yards on the ground.

Three Things to Look For:

1. Can LSU stop the inside run game of Auburn?
2. Can LSU play mistake free football? (No turnovers, minimal penalties, no mental mistakes)
3. How does Harris handle the pressure?

I think LSU will play well Saturday but it won’t be enough.  The Bengal Tigers will be in the game throughout, but Auburn’s running game will take over late as LSU and Harris wilt under the pressure.

Auburn 35- LSU 21  

 

Final Four: Week 4

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Oklahoma v. (4) FSU
(2)   Oregon v. (3) Alabama

National Championship

Oklahoma v. Alabama

Role Reversal

For the last 14 years, LSU has dominated the series with MSU going 14-0 with large victory margins.  That all ended Saturday night as the Bulldogs dominated LSU along the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  MSU gained 570 yards total and 302 on the ground alone.  The final score was misleading, this was as thorough a beating as LSU has experienced in the Miles era.

A few observations:

* LSU’s offensive and defense lines are a far cry from the units we have seen in the past.  LSU got very little pressure with the front four on defense and MSU ran the ball up the middle at will.  The offensive line doesn’t open many holes and was spotty in pass protection.  LSU has first and goal from the 2 yard line early on and ended up getting stuffed on 4 consecutive running plays setting the tone for the rest of the night.

* The play calling on the offensive side of the ball was poor.  Repeated runs out of the I-formation into 8 and 9 man fronts failed all night.  In an age of spread offenses and offensive ingenuity, Miles wants to play football in a phone booth.  Well let me tell you something coach, you don’t have the talent on the offensive line to play that way.  In the post game interview, Miles admitted that MSU “spread us out which opened up some running lanes.”  Gee coach, what a novel idea!

* Digging deeper, with so many LSU players in the NFL, only two offensive linemen recruited by Miles are currently on an NFL roster, Joseph Barksdale and Trai Turner.  Draw your own conclusions.

* Ronald Martin is having a rough year.  He was at fault on multiple big plays and struggles making open field tackles.  If I’m an opposing OC, I’m trying to target Martin at every opportunity.

* All the early departures are catching up with LSU on defense.  I don’t think MSU runs for 302 yards if Ego Ferguson and Anthony Johnson are plugging the middle of LSU’s defense.

* Anthony Jennings can do some nice things but I really question his ability to go to a second or third receiver.  He repeatedly throws deep when a shorter route is open.  It’s no mystery why his completion percentage is so low.  He must learn to check down and be patient with what the defense is giving him.  He has dipped down to 9^th in the league in QB rating and his 51% completion rating is by far the worst in the league.  Matter of fact it is 108^th in the nation.  I’m not ready to give up on Jennings as he throws a great deep ball and doesn’t make mistakes.  But he must improve for LSU to have any success.

* Having said all that, the QB race may still be on as Brandon Harris came in and played well in garbage time.  Harris finished 6 of 9 for 140 yards and 2 TD’s in about 4 minutes of action.  But with the game so far out of hand, I’m reluctant to put too much stock in the late game comeback.

I always hate to put too much stock in one game, but it’s hard not to be extremely concerned about LSU’s prospects going forward this season and the state of the program.  Let this sink in, Mississippi State has better players than LSU right now.  The Tigers were outplayed and outcoached all night.  Maybe this is a special Mississippi State team. Maybe at the end of the season we will look back at this game and appreciate just how good State is.  But right now, all we have are tons of questions on both sides of the ball and no obvious answers.

It’s hard to say where LSU goes from here.  The Tigers may only be favored in 2 or 3 games the rest of the way. Is a 7-5 or heaven forbid 6-6 season in the making?  Preseason I figured LSU was in for a 9-3 season.  I just don't see that happening at this point.  Based on what I have seen through four games, LSU is in for a 6-6 season.  Could they get things turned around? Sure, but Miles is going to have to open up the offense, because Chavis is not going to be able to carry him this year.

Before the season I made the prediction that Brady Hoke would get fired from Michigan and the Wolverines would make another run at Les Miles.  Well, Hoke just lost in dismal fashion at home to Utah to stand at 2-2 on the season.  Michigan has upcoming games against Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State which they will all be underdogs.  I’m sticking by my prediction even more firmly now.  If LSU belly flops, will Miles decide that time is right to move on?

Get ready for a long season Tiger fans...and be sure to stock up on your favorite alcoholic beverage.

Final Four: Week 4

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.  Each week may see significant changes, but that’s the nature of the game we love.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Oklahoma v. (4) Alabama
(2)   Oregon v. (3) FSU

National Championship

Alabama v. Oregon

Home Opener

Not a lot to talk about this week.  Jennings looked great, Fournette showed some ability and the defense threw a shutout for the first time since 2010.  The Tigers did what you expect versus an outmatched opponent, get up early and stay focused. 

The Fournette Heisman pose is no big deal.  He’s a young guy with a ton of expectations and pressure on him.  I’m sure he was very excited to score his first TD so I can excuse him for a little youthful exuberance.  He gets a complete pass in my book.  Having said that, if he scores the game winning TD versus Alabama, he can do any pose he wants.

Maybe I’m just getting old, but the music in the stadium was too loud.  More LSU band, less piped in music.

 A few numbers for you:

 * Anthony Jennings leads the league in QB rating and is fifth nationally.  He is #1 in the country in yards per attempt at 12.6.

* Travin Dural is averaging an insane 48.5 yards per catch with 4 TD’s this season.  For his career, Dural has 13 catches and 6 TD’s averaging 34.3 yards per catch.

* LSU is also #1 in the nation in pass efficiency defense. The Tigers are #2 in the SEC in total defense and #1 in sacks.

Let’s hope for continued attention to detail this week. 

Three things to look for Saturday:

1. Still need to get Jennings completion numbers up.
2. Develop the short and intermediate passing game.
3. Quality reps for defensive backups.

LSU 45 – ULM 3

 

 

 

Final Four: Week 2

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.  Each week may see significant changes, but that’s the nature of the game we love.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Florida State v. (4) Auburn
(2)   Oklahoma v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Oregon

Survive and Advance

I can’t say I was totally surprised the way the game played out, frustrated yes, surprised, no.  LSU is now 22-21 when trailing in the fourth quarter under Miles.  This is an amazing record.  But as Joey Galloway on ESPN said, “that’s not really a list you want to be on.”

You don’t want to be on that list because it means you’ve been outplayed for the first three quarters of the game.  This is a bit of a trend with Miles.  He has coached 120 games with the Tigers.  In 36% of those games he has entered the fourth quarter trailing.  So often we see the Tigers play it close to the vest in the first half and pull away in the second.  It has worked for LSU as evidenced by Miles 80% winning percentage.  But it makes the fans crazy and invites much of the criticism he receives. It wouldn’t hurt to come out and railroad some teams early.

Thoughts on the game:

* In some ways the game reminded me of Miles’ debut back in 2005.  LSU played poorly for a good chunk of the game then had a 28 point explosion in the fourth quarter to beat Arizona State in a wild finish.  Saw much of the same here.

* I was very pleased with Jennings, partly because of his performance and partly because my expectations were so low after the bowl game.  He didn’t turn the ball over, he made plays down field and he didn’t do anything to kill the Tigers.  He does need to work on his screen passes and getting a better rapport with the receivers, but I think the future is bright for him.  To appreciate how effective Jennings was, he is ranked 6^th in the SEC and 23^rd nationally in passing efficiency.  He’s even ahead of Texas A&M’s Kenny Hill.

* In my mind, the QB derby is essentially over. Even though I think Jennings took a huge leap in the QB competition, Harris will continue to play throughout the season.

* The coaching staff needs to help Jennings out as well.  Jennings was 5 of 8 for 157 and a TD on first down.  Compare that with 2 of 9 for 48 yards and a TD on third down.  Part of the problem was LSU’s inability to run the ball, but LSU’s play calling can be predictable. 

* Great to see Kenny Hilliard back in form.  This could be a really big year for him.

* Leonard Fournette is a freshman running back with great potential.  Fans want to hail these guys as the next great player before they take a college snap and are disappointed when they fail to meet these unfair expectations.  Give him time; he will be a very productive player at LSU.

* This receiving corps will be very good by years end. Dural, Quinn and Diarse looked sharp Saturday.

* The offensive line was underwhelming in the first half.  Only as the game wore on and two Badger linemen went down did things improve.  This group will have better days.  2.7 yards a carry is not going to get it done.

* The defense had all sorts of trouble in the first half but seemed to figure things out in the second.  The Tigers did force Wisconsin into seven three and outs and held the Badgers to 32 yards on their final five possessions of the game.

* The secondary looks to be in midseason form as McEvoy was held to 50 yards passing while Mills and Martin both had interceptions.

* With the exception of Jamie Keehn’s shanks, special teams were very good.  Cameron Gamble looked phenomenal on kickoffs.

Looking Ahead

No one will get the big head after LSU’s squeaker over Wisconsin.  Expect better execution this week.  LSU obviously outmatches Sam Houston State, so the key is for the players to focus on the mental side of the game.  Attention to detail and execution is what the coaches will be looking for because the outcome is not in doubt.

Three things I would like to see versus Sam Houston State:

1. Get Fournette some holes to run through.
2. Jennings up his completion percentage.
3. Generate an interior pass rush on defense.

LSU 42 – SMS 10

May the Playoff Chase Begin

On December 7, 2014, four golden tickets will be handed out for the inaugural College Football Playoff.  The chase begins this Thursday in Columbia, South Carolina as Texas A&M visits the Gamecocks.  LSU’s run at a title begins in Houston, Texas versus the Wisconsin Badgers Saturday night.

A few nuggets before the game break down:

* Miles is 9-0 in openers while at LSU, with an average score of 38-18.

* LSU has been ranked 82 consecutive weeks in the AP Top 25.  It’s the second longest streak in the country behind…Alabama.

* Terrence Magee will wear the #18 jersey for LSU this season.  The passing down of the #18 jersey has become a tradition during Miles time in Baton Rouge.  Since 2010, the number has been passed down to a Senior.

* LSU holds the all-time record for consecutive regular season non-conference wins with 45…and counting.

With young QB’s and untested receivers, look for LSU to run…and run…and run some more.  Some of the TV talking heads have tabbed LSU’s offensive line as the best in the SEC.  Why not run behind it?  Early success against Wisconsin’s front seven, of which only one starter returns, will make it easier for Jennings/Harris to find a rhythm throwing down field.  Expect a fairly low risk game plan to keep the pressure off the QB’s.

LSU was poor on defense away from Tiger Stadium last season.  Can they bring the efforts shown against Texas A&M and Florida last season into Reliant Stadium?  The secondary and linebacking corps are talented and experienced.  LSU brings back 12 of its top 16 tacklers from last season.  The real question is at defensive tackle, lots of talented but unproven players.

Look for Wisconsin to employ a similar attack to LSU.  The Badgers’ best weapon is RB Melvin Gordon who ran for over 1,600 last season.  In a surprise move, last season’s starter at QB, Joel Stave, appears to have lost out in fall camp to Tanner McEvoy.  McEvoy played WR and safety last season so you have to wonder if Wisconsin’s QB situation is just as unsettled as the Tigers.

The game will be close but LSU should pull away late and survive a few nervous moments before “securing victory.”

LSU 27 – Wisconsin 20

LSU 2014 Preview

There are so many questions entering this season. 

The biggest one is who will start at the most important position on the team, quarterback.  LSU has two options, true sophomore Anthony Jennings and true freshman Brandon Harris.  Both are 4 star recruits with plenty of athletic ability and potential.  There has been a great deal of talk that Harris may indeed take over as the starter as the season moves along.

However, the SEC generally punishes young quarterbacks.  Since 2007, only 6 freshmen have been the primary starters for their team at QB.  I’ve defined “primary starter” as playing in more than 75% of their school’s games and throwing at least 15 passes per game. 

Four of those were redshirt freshmen and two were true freshmen.  The 4 redshirts were a mixed bag.  Obviously Aaron Murray (UGA ‘10) and Johnny Manziel (A&M ‘12) were fantastic their first years combining for 50 TD’s and only 17 INT’s.  The other two, Jarrett Lee (LSU ‘08) and Corbin Berkstresser (Mizz ‘12) struggled throwing on 19 TD’s and 23 INT’s.

The picture with the two true freshmen, Wesley Carroll (MSU ’07) and Jalen Whitlow (UK ’12) is ugly.  Both finished dead last in the SEC in QB rating in their respective seasons.  They combined for 12 TD’s and 9 INT’s.

On the plus side, the offensive linemen are very experienced.  This will be one of Miles best units in his time at LSU.  Running back is no issue with Magee and Hilliard returning and the #1 player in the country, Leonard Fournette, being added to the mix.  The receivers are young but talented.  There will be drop off of course, but it’s not nearly the same concern as QB.

The defense will be better this season, much better.  LSU had so many new starters and it really showed on the road.  In four SEC home games, LSU averaged giving up 334 yards and 16 points per game.  In the four road games, the Tigers gave up 465 yards and 33.8 points per game.  That is a huge swing which I attribute to the comfort and confidence of playing in Tiger Stadium versus the hostile atmospheres around the SEC.

With road trips to Florida, Auburn, Arkansas and Texas A&M not to mention a home tussle with Alabama, expect growing pains and a few costly mistakes. LSU will be good this season, but nothing special.  An invitation to one of the big 6 bowls would be a great accomplishment.  I think it’s most likely that LSU goes 9-3.  Quarterback play will dictate if the number of wins moves up...or down.

From a big picture standpoint, LSU is doing very well coming off four straight 10 win+ seasons and the #2 recruiting class in the nation this past spring.  But I feel there is still a pall hanging over the program since the National Title Game debacle against Alabama. 

From 2001 to 2007, LSU made four trips to Atlanta for the SEC Title game.  But over the last six seasons, the only divisional title was in 2011.  It was inevitable that LSU would eventually regress from the staggering heights of two National Titles in five years.  But this is a glory game, defined by championships, be they divisional, conference or national.   

This is not to diminish what Miles has done.  This is the Golden Age of LSU Football.  LSU has become one of the premier programs in the country. But the bar has been set high, and fans expect to see hardware at the end of the season…or a win over Alabama. 

Reading Materials

Here are few good articles from around the web.  Enjoy!

ESPN's LSU Preview

College Football News' LSU Preview

How would the Playoff have worked during the BCS years?

Why Bob Stoops is Better than Nick Saban

Why schools see you not as a fan but a source of revenue

Poll Dancing

The Coaches Poll just came out with LSU clocking in at lucky #13.  With the advent of the College Football Playoff, the Coaches Poll becomes about as irrelevant as the AP Poll.  But it is still talking season so here are a few thoughts.

*No real issue with the first 4 teams, FSU, Bama, Sooners and Oregon.  Would anyone be surprised if these were the four teams selected to play in the CFP at the end of the season?

* Overrated Teams

Auburn (5)

Stanford (11)
USC (15)
Texas A&M (20)
Texas (24)

*Underrated Teams

South Carolina (9)

Clemson (16)
Nebraska (22)
Oklahoma State (NR)
Marshall (NR)

Many of the talking heads in the media are worried about “bias” among the selection committee members of the CFP.  It seems to me a huge upgrade from letting the coaches have a say in who plays for the title.  That poll is rife with agendas, grudges and self-interest.  The basketball committee has done a great job through the years, I expect nothing less from this distinguished group.

For the Gamblers

The season is still over a month away but that doesn't mean that we can't enjoy "talking season."

Some early spreads on LSU out of Vegas:

LSU -7 over Wisconsin:  Sounds about right.  This will be a close game at a neutral site but LSU should be able to win with great defense and a solid running game.

LSU -12 over Miss. State:  The last 7 games between the teams in Tiger Stadium have ended with an average final score of 39-17.  I will let you figure out the rest.

LSU +6.5 at Auburn:  Will be very tough game for LSU to win.  By the time of the game, Auburn should be on a 12 game home winning streak.  While LSU is 6-1 versus Auburn since 2007, the Baton Rouge Tigers are only 4-7 at Auburn since the inception of divisional play.

LSU -9 at Florida:  Of all the spreads, this one really caught my eye.  Obviously the odds makers don't think much of Florida this year.  I would be very curious to see the last time LSU was favored like this in Gainesville...if ever.

LSU -7.5 over Ole Miss:  This game has been VERY close in the Miles era.

LSU +2.5 vs. Alabama: Looks like the experts in Vegas think more of LSU than I do.  A lot will change before this game, but the Tigers are getting serious respect here.

LSU -14 at Arkansas: Possible trap game? Naaa.

LSU -5 at Texas A&M: Bring out the Turkeys.  Has LSU ever played on Thanksgiving Day?

Despite the fact that Miss. State, Ole Miss and A&M are all trendier picks than LSU, the Tigers are favored in all three games.  From 2011-2013, LSU was favored 34 times, the Tigers won 31 of those games.

National Predictions and Other Foolishness

Conference Champs

ACC:               Florida State

BIG 10:           Ohio State
Big XII:          Oklahoma
Pac-12:            UCLA
SEC:                South Carolina

Four Team Playoff: South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida State, UCLA

National Champ: Oklahoma

In case you are curious, Bovada’s Odds on winning it all:

Florida State: 11/2

Alabama: 6/1

Oregon: 8/1

Auburn: 9/1

Ohio State: 10/1

Oklahoma: 12/1

Georgia: 16/1

UCLA: 16/1

LSU: 18/1

Michigan State: 25/1

South Carolina: 25/1

USC: 25/1

Baylor: 28/1

Stanford: 33/1

Wisconsin: 33/1

Florida: 40/1

Mississippi: 40/1

Notre Dame: 40/1

Texas: 40/1

Michigan: 50/1

Nebraska: 50/1

Top 5 Games of 2014

1.   Auburn at Alabama

1a. SEC Title Game

2.   Ohio State at Michigan State

3.   Florida State v. Miami

4.   Oregon at UCLA

5.   Baylor at Oklahoma

5 Teams (other than LSU) I’m Most Curious About

Texas – No Texas players were taken in the NFL draft for the first time in 77 years. WHAT??  That is mind boggling to me.  I think Charlie Strong is a good coach and recruiter.  Look for a big turnaround for the Longhorns…next year.

 

Michigan – Brady Hoke won 11 games his first season in Ann Arbor. Then 8 games in year two and only 7 in year three.  Notice a trend?  Under Hoke, Michigan is only 3-8 versus ranked teams and 6-9 versus ND, MSU, OSU, Iowa and Nebraska. I’m not sure how much goodwill he has left.

 

UCLA – The Bruins look loaded to make a run.  Can Mora get them to elite status?

 

Miami – When will the Canes be good again?  After starting 7-0 last season, Miami stumbled the rest of the way going 2-4 down the stretch.

 

TCU – The transition to the Big XII has been rougher than most expected for the Horned Frogs.  The hope is a new offensive coordinator brings life to an offense that ranked 106^th in the nation last season.

 

Coach Most Likely to Get Fired: Will Muschamp

Bold Prediction I: Despite ESPN’s best efforts to manufacture controversy, the selection committee for the four team playoff will do an excellent job in selecting the participants without needless drama.

Bold Prediction II: Brady Hoke will get fired from Michigan as the Wolverines make another run at Les Miles.  Third time turns out to be the charm and Miles bolts LSU for his alma mater. 

3 Good Reads

1. SEC West holds the upper hand on the East.

Great article on the tilt of power in the SEC the last five years.

2. Stewart Mandel Mailbag

Always on Wednesday.  Always a good read.

3. Don't worry, Harry Reid insists that our southern border is secure.

No matter how many times you say something, it doesn't make it true.

2014 SEC Preview

 

 

Big turnover at the QB position in the SEC this season with Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina all losing their starters from 2013. It will be interesting to see how these teams’ offensive numbers are affected.

A few thoughts:

*          Junior and senior quarterbacks continue to dominate the SEC Title game.  Last year was no exception as Auburn was led by junior QB Nick Marshall while Missouri had senior James Franklin under center. 

*          Here is a breakdown of the 26 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	9	6-3
Junior	11	6-5
Sophomore	6	1-5
Freshman	0	0-0

*          I beat this dead horse every year, but the odds are heavily stacked against teams with underclass QB’s.  To put this in perspective, while Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel both won Heisman Trophies as underclassmen, neither won the division in those Heisman seasons.

*          So it is no surprise that I’m giving the LSU Tigers little or no chance to win the division.  But to show you what I know, I picked Auburn and Missouri to both finish 6^th in their respective divisions last season.  We all know how that worked out.

*          Using these criteria, who has a legit shot to get to Atlanta?

Auburn and Ole Miss will have seniors at the QB position and solid offensive lines.  Auburn returns four starters from an offensive line with a combined 113 starts that led the nation in rushing last season.  Alabama is breaking in some new guys on the line but you know they will be plenty talented.  The Tide will also be breaking in a new junior QB transfer from Florida State, Jacob Coker.  Ole Miss just is not on the same level as others in the division, but they could be a spoiler.

From the East, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia all have senior QB’s.  Florida’s Jeff Driskel returns for his fourth season after receiving a medical redshirt in 2013.  But this may be Steve Spurrier’s best chance to conquer the East.  The Gamecocks get Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri and Tennessee at home while travelling to Auburn and Florida.  USC has loaded up on talent with consistent Top 20 classes since Spurrier’s arrival.  The Gators are a bit of a wildcard this year.  On paper they are one of the most talented teams in the country, but Muschamp is only 22-16 in three seasons.  To highlight just how poor Florida was last season, their three conference wins came over teams with a combined conference record of 2-22.