A Star is Born?

Now that is a Heisman pose!

“Brutal” is about the only thing I can say about Anthony Jennings’ performance against New Mexico State.  The few folks that showed up saw LSU’s starting quarterback implode before their eyes.  Jennings finished with a -21.52 passer rating.  I didn’t know you could have a negative passer rating.  This wasn’t against the Steel Curtain, Alabama’s 2011 defense or the Monsters of the Midway.  This was against the Aggies of New Mexico State.  After turning the ball over three times, Miles mercifully pulled Jennings and inserted Harris who proceeded to lead LSU on 7 straight TD drives.

I didn’t like the fans booing Jennings.  He played poorly, but from everything that I have seen, he’s a team player and has done nothing wrong off the field.  I understood fan’s frustrations, but booing Jennings as he left the field was uncalled for.  But hey, you pay your money, it’s a free country, you can “boo” all you want.   (*As a side note, I loudly booed Jordan Jefferson and Les Miles as Jefferson entered the 2011 UK game.  Call me a hypocrite, but I felt the situations were very different.)

Given the competition, I’m not ready to say Harris is going to be a great player; but I’m confident in saying Jennings will not.  Thus far this season, Harris is 22 of 30 for 394 yards and 6 TD’s/1 INT.  His QB rating is absurd. 

But how will he perform in one of the toughest venues in the country at Jordan-Hare Stadium?  Auburn is just as difficult a place to play as LSU.  The biggest challenge Harris will face will be controlling his emotions.  He will have to play very well for LSU to win as I expect Auburn to score…a lot. 

 LSU has been soft up the middle and unless the DT’s can slow down the running game, it will be a long night for the Bengal Tigers.  In the two games versus Arkansas and K-State, Auburn averaged 215 yards on the ground gaining 4.62 yards per carry. Marshall is probably an even better runner than MSU’s Prescott who torched LSU for 105 yards on the ground.

Three Things to Look For:

1. Can LSU stop the inside run game of Auburn?
2. Can LSU play mistake free football? (No turnovers, minimal penalties, no mental mistakes)
3. How does Harris handle the pressure?

I think LSU will play well Saturday but it won’t be enough.  The Bengal Tigers will be in the game throughout, but Auburn’s running game will take over late as LSU and Harris wilt under the pressure.

Auburn 35- LSU 21  

 

Final Four: Week 4

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Oklahoma v. (4) FSU
(2)   Oregon v. (3) Alabama

National Championship

Oklahoma v. Alabama

Role Reversal

For the last 14 years, LSU has dominated the series with MSU going 14-0 with large victory margins.  That all ended Saturday night as the Bulldogs dominated LSU along the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  MSU gained 570 yards total and 302 on the ground alone.  The final score was misleading, this was as thorough a beating as LSU has experienced in the Miles era.

A few observations:

* LSU’s offensive and defense lines are a far cry from the units we have seen in the past.  LSU got very little pressure with the front four on defense and MSU ran the ball up the middle at will.  The offensive line doesn’t open many holes and was spotty in pass protection.  LSU has first and goal from the 2 yard line early on and ended up getting stuffed on 4 consecutive running plays setting the tone for the rest of the night.

* The play calling on the offensive side of the ball was poor.  Repeated runs out of the I-formation into 8 and 9 man fronts failed all night.  In an age of spread offenses and offensive ingenuity, Miles wants to play football in a phone booth.  Well let me tell you something coach, you don’t have the talent on the offensive line to play that way.  In the post game interview, Miles admitted that MSU “spread us out which opened up some running lanes.”  Gee coach, what a novel idea!

* Digging deeper, with so many LSU players in the NFL, only two offensive linemen recruited by Miles are currently on an NFL roster, Joseph Barksdale and Trai Turner.  Draw your own conclusions.

* Ronald Martin is having a rough year.  He was at fault on multiple big plays and struggles making open field tackles.  If I’m an opposing OC, I’m trying to target Martin at every opportunity.

* All the early departures are catching up with LSU on defense.  I don’t think MSU runs for 302 yards if Ego Ferguson and Anthony Johnson are plugging the middle of LSU’s defense.

* Anthony Jennings can do some nice things but I really question his ability to go to a second or third receiver.  He repeatedly throws deep when a shorter route is open.  It’s no mystery why his completion percentage is so low.  He must learn to check down and be patient with what the defense is giving him.  He has dipped down to 9^th in the league in QB rating and his 51% completion rating is by far the worst in the league.  Matter of fact it is 108^th in the nation.  I’m not ready to give up on Jennings as he throws a great deep ball and doesn’t make mistakes.  But he must improve for LSU to have any success.

* Having said all that, the QB race may still be on as Brandon Harris came in and played well in garbage time.  Harris finished 6 of 9 for 140 yards and 2 TD’s in about 4 minutes of action.  But with the game so far out of hand, I’m reluctant to put too much stock in the late game comeback.

I always hate to put too much stock in one game, but it’s hard not to be extremely concerned about LSU’s prospects going forward this season and the state of the program.  Let this sink in, Mississippi State has better players than LSU right now.  The Tigers were outplayed and outcoached all night.  Maybe this is a special Mississippi State team. Maybe at the end of the season we will look back at this game and appreciate just how good State is.  But right now, all we have are tons of questions on both sides of the ball and no obvious answers.

It’s hard to say where LSU goes from here.  The Tigers may only be favored in 2 or 3 games the rest of the way. Is a 7-5 or heaven forbid 6-6 season in the making?  Preseason I figured LSU was in for a 9-3 season.  I just don't see that happening at this point.  Based on what I have seen through four games, LSU is in for a 6-6 season.  Could they get things turned around? Sure, but Miles is going to have to open up the offense, because Chavis is not going to be able to carry him this year.

Before the season I made the prediction that Brady Hoke would get fired from Michigan and the Wolverines would make another run at Les Miles.  Well, Hoke just lost in dismal fashion at home to Utah to stand at 2-2 on the season.  Michigan has upcoming games against Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State which they will all be underdogs.  I’m sticking by my prediction even more firmly now.  If LSU belly flops, will Miles decide that time is right to move on?

Get ready for a long season Tiger fans...and be sure to stock up on your favorite alcoholic beverage.

Final Four: Week 4

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.  Each week may see significant changes, but that’s the nature of the game we love.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Oklahoma v. (4) Alabama
(2)   Oregon v. (3) FSU

National Championship

Alabama v. Oregon

Home Opener

Not a lot to talk about this week.  Jennings looked great, Fournette showed some ability and the defense threw a shutout for the first time since 2010.  The Tigers did what you expect versus an outmatched opponent, get up early and stay focused. 

The Fournette Heisman pose is no big deal.  He’s a young guy with a ton of expectations and pressure on him.  I’m sure he was very excited to score his first TD so I can excuse him for a little youthful exuberance.  He gets a complete pass in my book.  Having said that, if he scores the game winning TD versus Alabama, he can do any pose he wants.

Maybe I’m just getting old, but the music in the stadium was too loud.  More LSU band, less piped in music.

 A few numbers for you:

 * Anthony Jennings leads the league in QB rating and is fifth nationally.  He is #1 in the country in yards per attempt at 12.6.

* Travin Dural is averaging an insane 48.5 yards per catch with 4 TD’s this season.  For his career, Dural has 13 catches and 6 TD’s averaging 34.3 yards per catch.

* LSU is also #1 in the nation in pass efficiency defense. The Tigers are #2 in the SEC in total defense and #1 in sacks.

Let’s hope for continued attention to detail this week. 

Three things to look for Saturday:

1. Still need to get Jennings completion numbers up.
2. Develop the short and intermediate passing game.
3. Quality reps for defensive backups.

LSU 45 – ULM 3

 

 

 

Final Four: Week 2

Each week I will be posting my Final Four based a combination of games played thus far and predictions about the eventual participants.  My four is a combination of what has actually happened on the field and my evaluations projecting out to the end of the season.  Each week may see significant changes, but that’s the nature of the game we love.

Semi-Finals

(1)   Florida State v. (4) Auburn
(2)   Oklahoma v. (3) Oregon

National Championship

FSU v. Oregon

Survive and Advance

I can’t say I was totally surprised the way the game played out, frustrated yes, surprised, no.  LSU is now 22-21 when trailing in the fourth quarter under Miles.  This is an amazing record.  But as Joey Galloway on ESPN said, “that’s not really a list you want to be on.”

You don’t want to be on that list because it means you’ve been outplayed for the first three quarters of the game.  This is a bit of a trend with Miles.  He has coached 120 games with the Tigers.  In 36% of those games he has entered the fourth quarter trailing.  So often we see the Tigers play it close to the vest in the first half and pull away in the second.  It has worked for LSU as evidenced by Miles 80% winning percentage.  But it makes the fans crazy and invites much of the criticism he receives. It wouldn’t hurt to come out and railroad some teams early.

Thoughts on the game:

* In some ways the game reminded me of Miles’ debut back in 2005.  LSU played poorly for a good chunk of the game then had a 28 point explosion in the fourth quarter to beat Arizona State in a wild finish.  Saw much of the same here.

* I was very pleased with Jennings, partly because of his performance and partly because my expectations were so low after the bowl game.  He didn’t turn the ball over, he made plays down field and he didn’t do anything to kill the Tigers.  He does need to work on his screen passes and getting a better rapport with the receivers, but I think the future is bright for him.  To appreciate how effective Jennings was, he is ranked 6^th in the SEC and 23^rd nationally in passing efficiency.  He’s even ahead of Texas A&M’s Kenny Hill.

* In my mind, the QB derby is essentially over. Even though I think Jennings took a huge leap in the QB competition, Harris will continue to play throughout the season.

* The coaching staff needs to help Jennings out as well.  Jennings was 5 of 8 for 157 and a TD on first down.  Compare that with 2 of 9 for 48 yards and a TD on third down.  Part of the problem was LSU’s inability to run the ball, but LSU’s play calling can be predictable. 

* Great to see Kenny Hilliard back in form.  This could be a really big year for him.

* Leonard Fournette is a freshman running back with great potential.  Fans want to hail these guys as the next great player before they take a college snap and are disappointed when they fail to meet these unfair expectations.  Give him time; he will be a very productive player at LSU.

* This receiving corps will be very good by years end. Dural, Quinn and Diarse looked sharp Saturday.

* The offensive line was underwhelming in the first half.  Only as the game wore on and two Badger linemen went down did things improve.  This group will have better days.  2.7 yards a carry is not going to get it done.

* The defense had all sorts of trouble in the first half but seemed to figure things out in the second.  The Tigers did force Wisconsin into seven three and outs and held the Badgers to 32 yards on their final five possessions of the game.

* The secondary looks to be in midseason form as McEvoy was held to 50 yards passing while Mills and Martin both had interceptions.

* With the exception of Jamie Keehn’s shanks, special teams were very good.  Cameron Gamble looked phenomenal on kickoffs.

Looking Ahead

No one will get the big head after LSU’s squeaker over Wisconsin.  Expect better execution this week.  LSU obviously outmatches Sam Houston State, so the key is for the players to focus on the mental side of the game.  Attention to detail and execution is what the coaches will be looking for because the outcome is not in doubt.

Three things I would like to see versus Sam Houston State:

1. Get Fournette some holes to run through.
2. Jennings up his completion percentage.
3. Generate an interior pass rush on defense.

LSU 42 – SMS 10

May the Playoff Chase Begin

On December 7, 2014, four golden tickets will be handed out for the inaugural College Football Playoff.  The chase begins this Thursday in Columbia, South Carolina as Texas A&M visits the Gamecocks.  LSU’s run at a title begins in Houston, Texas versus the Wisconsin Badgers Saturday night.

A few nuggets before the game break down:

* Miles is 9-0 in openers while at LSU, with an average score of 38-18.

* LSU has been ranked 82 consecutive weeks in the AP Top 25.  It’s the second longest streak in the country behind…Alabama.

* Terrence Magee will wear the #18 jersey for LSU this season.  The passing down of the #18 jersey has become a tradition during Miles time in Baton Rouge.  Since 2010, the number has been passed down to a Senior.

* LSU holds the all-time record for consecutive regular season non-conference wins with 45…and counting.

With young QB’s and untested receivers, look for LSU to run…and run…and run some more.  Some of the TV talking heads have tabbed LSU’s offensive line as the best in the SEC.  Why not run behind it?  Early success against Wisconsin’s front seven, of which only one starter returns, will make it easier for Jennings/Harris to find a rhythm throwing down field.  Expect a fairly low risk game plan to keep the pressure off the QB’s.

LSU was poor on defense away from Tiger Stadium last season.  Can they bring the efforts shown against Texas A&M and Florida last season into Reliant Stadium?  The secondary and linebacking corps are talented and experienced.  LSU brings back 12 of its top 16 tacklers from last season.  The real question is at defensive tackle, lots of talented but unproven players.

Look for Wisconsin to employ a similar attack to LSU.  The Badgers’ best weapon is RB Melvin Gordon who ran for over 1,600 last season.  In a surprise move, last season’s starter at QB, Joel Stave, appears to have lost out in fall camp to Tanner McEvoy.  McEvoy played WR and safety last season so you have to wonder if Wisconsin’s QB situation is just as unsettled as the Tigers.

The game will be close but LSU should pull away late and survive a few nervous moments before “securing victory.”

LSU 27 – Wisconsin 20

LSU 2014 Preview

There are so many questions entering this season. 

The biggest one is who will start at the most important position on the team, quarterback.  LSU has two options, true sophomore Anthony Jennings and true freshman Brandon Harris.  Both are 4 star recruits with plenty of athletic ability and potential.  There has been a great deal of talk that Harris may indeed take over as the starter as the season moves along.

However, the SEC generally punishes young quarterbacks.  Since 2007, only 6 freshmen have been the primary starters for their team at QB.  I’ve defined “primary starter” as playing in more than 75% of their school’s games and throwing at least 15 passes per game. 

Four of those were redshirt freshmen and two were true freshmen.  The 4 redshirts were a mixed bag.  Obviously Aaron Murray (UGA ‘10) and Johnny Manziel (A&M ‘12) were fantastic their first years combining for 50 TD’s and only 17 INT’s.  The other two, Jarrett Lee (LSU ‘08) and Corbin Berkstresser (Mizz ‘12) struggled throwing on 19 TD’s and 23 INT’s.

The picture with the two true freshmen, Wesley Carroll (MSU ’07) and Jalen Whitlow (UK ’12) is ugly.  Both finished dead last in the SEC in QB rating in their respective seasons.  They combined for 12 TD’s and 9 INT’s.

On the plus side, the offensive linemen are very experienced.  This will be one of Miles best units in his time at LSU.  Running back is no issue with Magee and Hilliard returning and the #1 player in the country, Leonard Fournette, being added to the mix.  The receivers are young but talented.  There will be drop off of course, but it’s not nearly the same concern as QB.

The defense will be better this season, much better.  LSU had so many new starters and it really showed on the road.  In four SEC home games, LSU averaged giving up 334 yards and 16 points per game.  In the four road games, the Tigers gave up 465 yards and 33.8 points per game.  That is a huge swing which I attribute to the comfort and confidence of playing in Tiger Stadium versus the hostile atmospheres around the SEC.

With road trips to Florida, Auburn, Arkansas and Texas A&M not to mention a home tussle with Alabama, expect growing pains and a few costly mistakes. LSU will be good this season, but nothing special.  An invitation to one of the big 6 bowls would be a great accomplishment.  I think it’s most likely that LSU goes 9-3.  Quarterback play will dictate if the number of wins moves up...or down.

From a big picture standpoint, LSU is doing very well coming off four straight 10 win+ seasons and the #2 recruiting class in the nation this past spring.  But I feel there is still a pall hanging over the program since the National Title Game debacle against Alabama. 

From 2001 to 2007, LSU made four trips to Atlanta for the SEC Title game.  But over the last six seasons, the only divisional title was in 2011.  It was inevitable that LSU would eventually regress from the staggering heights of two National Titles in five years.  But this is a glory game, defined by championships, be they divisional, conference or national.   

This is not to diminish what Miles has done.  This is the Golden Age of LSU Football.  LSU has become one of the premier programs in the country. But the bar has been set high, and fans expect to see hardware at the end of the season…or a win over Alabama. 

Reading Materials

Here are few good articles from around the web.  Enjoy!

ESPN's LSU Preview

College Football News' LSU Preview

How would the Playoff have worked during the BCS years?

Why Bob Stoops is Better than Nick Saban

Why schools see you not as a fan but a source of revenue

Poll Dancing

The Coaches Poll just came out with LSU clocking in at lucky #13.  With the advent of the College Football Playoff, the Coaches Poll becomes about as irrelevant as the AP Poll.  But it is still talking season so here are a few thoughts.

*No real issue with the first 4 teams, FSU, Bama, Sooners and Oregon.  Would anyone be surprised if these were the four teams selected to play in the CFP at the end of the season?

* Overrated Teams

Auburn (5)

Stanford (11)
USC (15)
Texas A&M (20)
Texas (24)

*Underrated Teams

South Carolina (9)

Clemson (16)
Nebraska (22)
Oklahoma State (NR)
Marshall (NR)

Many of the talking heads in the media are worried about “bias” among the selection committee members of the CFP.  It seems to me a huge upgrade from letting the coaches have a say in who plays for the title.  That poll is rife with agendas, grudges and self-interest.  The basketball committee has done a great job through the years, I expect nothing less from this distinguished group.

For the Gamblers

The season is still over a month away but that doesn't mean that we can't enjoy "talking season."

Some early spreads on LSU out of Vegas:

LSU -7 over Wisconsin:  Sounds about right.  This will be a close game at a neutral site but LSU should be able to win with great defense and a solid running game.

LSU -12 over Miss. State:  The last 7 games between the teams in Tiger Stadium have ended with an average final score of 39-17.  I will let you figure out the rest.

LSU +6.5 at Auburn:  Will be very tough game for LSU to win.  By the time of the game, Auburn should be on a 12 game home winning streak.  While LSU is 6-1 versus Auburn since 2007, the Baton Rouge Tigers are only 4-7 at Auburn since the inception of divisional play.

LSU -9 at Florida:  Of all the spreads, this one really caught my eye.  Obviously the odds makers don't think much of Florida this year.  I would be very curious to see the last time LSU was favored like this in Gainesville...if ever.

LSU -7.5 over Ole Miss:  This game has been VERY close in the Miles era.

LSU +2.5 vs. Alabama: Looks like the experts in Vegas think more of LSU than I do.  A lot will change before this game, but the Tigers are getting serious respect here.

LSU -14 at Arkansas: Possible trap game? Naaa.

LSU -5 at Texas A&M: Bring out the Turkeys.  Has LSU ever played on Thanksgiving Day?

Despite the fact that Miss. State, Ole Miss and A&M are all trendier picks than LSU, the Tigers are favored in all three games.  From 2011-2013, LSU was favored 34 times, the Tigers won 31 of those games.

National Predictions and Other Foolishness

Conference Champs

ACC:               Florida State

BIG 10:           Ohio State
Big XII:          Oklahoma
Pac-12:            UCLA
SEC:                South Carolina

Four Team Playoff: South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida State, UCLA

National Champ: Oklahoma

In case you are curious, Bovada’s Odds on winning it all:

Florida State: 11/2

Alabama: 6/1

Oregon: 8/1

Auburn: 9/1

Ohio State: 10/1

Oklahoma: 12/1

Georgia: 16/1

UCLA: 16/1

LSU: 18/1

Michigan State: 25/1

South Carolina: 25/1

USC: 25/1

Baylor: 28/1

Stanford: 33/1

Wisconsin: 33/1

Florida: 40/1

Mississippi: 40/1

Notre Dame: 40/1

Texas: 40/1

Michigan: 50/1

Nebraska: 50/1

Top 5 Games of 2014

1.   Auburn at Alabama

1a. SEC Title Game

2.   Ohio State at Michigan State

3.   Florida State v. Miami

4.   Oregon at UCLA

5.   Baylor at Oklahoma

5 Teams (other than LSU) I’m Most Curious About

Texas – No Texas players were taken in the NFL draft for the first time in 77 years. WHAT??  That is mind boggling to me.  I think Charlie Strong is a good coach and recruiter.  Look for a big turnaround for the Longhorns…next year.

 

Michigan – Brady Hoke won 11 games his first season in Ann Arbor. Then 8 games in year two and only 7 in year three.  Notice a trend?  Under Hoke, Michigan is only 3-8 versus ranked teams and 6-9 versus ND, MSU, OSU, Iowa and Nebraska. I’m not sure how much goodwill he has left.

 

UCLA – The Bruins look loaded to make a run.  Can Mora get them to elite status?

 

Miami – When will the Canes be good again?  After starting 7-0 last season, Miami stumbled the rest of the way going 2-4 down the stretch.

 

TCU – The transition to the Big XII has been rougher than most expected for the Horned Frogs.  The hope is a new offensive coordinator brings life to an offense that ranked 106^th in the nation last season.

 

Coach Most Likely to Get Fired: Will Muschamp

Bold Prediction I: Despite ESPN’s best efforts to manufacture controversy, the selection committee for the four team playoff will do an excellent job in selecting the participants without needless drama.

Bold Prediction II: Brady Hoke will get fired from Michigan as the Wolverines make another run at Les Miles.  Third time turns out to be the charm and Miles bolts LSU for his alma mater. 

3 Good Reads

1. SEC West holds the upper hand on the East.

Great article on the tilt of power in the SEC the last five years.

2. Stewart Mandel Mailbag

Always on Wednesday.  Always a good read.

3. Don't worry, Harry Reid insists that our southern border is secure.

No matter how many times you say something, it doesn't make it true.

2014 SEC Preview

 

 

Big turnover at the QB position in the SEC this season with Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina all losing their starters from 2013. It will be interesting to see how these teams’ offensive numbers are affected.

A few thoughts:

*          Junior and senior quarterbacks continue to dominate the SEC Title game.  Last year was no exception as Auburn was led by junior QB Nick Marshall while Missouri had senior James Franklin under center. 

*          Here is a breakdown of the 26 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	9	6-3
Junior	11	6-5
Sophomore	6	1-5
Freshman	0	0-0

*          I beat this dead horse every year, but the odds are heavily stacked against teams with underclass QB’s.  To put this in perspective, while Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel both won Heisman Trophies as underclassmen, neither won the division in those Heisman seasons.

*          So it is no surprise that I’m giving the LSU Tigers little or no chance to win the division.  But to show you what I know, I picked Auburn and Missouri to both finish 6^th in their respective divisions last season.  We all know how that worked out.

*          Using these criteria, who has a legit shot to get to Atlanta?

Auburn and Ole Miss will have seniors at the QB position and solid offensive lines.  Auburn returns four starters from an offensive line with a combined 113 starts that led the nation in rushing last season.  Alabama is breaking in some new guys on the line but you know they will be plenty talented.  The Tide will also be breaking in a new junior QB transfer from Florida State, Jacob Coker.  Ole Miss just is not on the same level as others in the division, but they could be a spoiler.

From the East, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia all have senior QB’s.  Florida’s Jeff Driskel returns for his fourth season after receiving a medical redshirt in 2013.  But this may be Steve Spurrier’s best chance to conquer the East.  The Gamecocks get Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri and Tennessee at home while travelling to Auburn and Florida.  USC has loaded up on talent with consistent Top 20 classes since Spurrier’s arrival.  The Gators are a bit of a wildcard this year.  On paper they are one of the most talented teams in the country, but Muschamp is only 22-16 in three seasons.  To highlight just how poor Florida was last season, their three conference wins came over teams with a combined conference record of 2-22.

 

Reading Material

Here are a few interesting links I came across that are worth a read...even if to say how misguided they are.

Athlon's ranking of all 128 college coaches.

No way Miles is 17th.  Sure he has his shortcomings, but a National Title, 2 SEC Titles and 95 wins in 9 seasons deserves more respect thank being ranked lower than Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly.

College Football Playoff for Beginners.

Nice little break down of the new playoff format.

Jeremy Hill's latest tattoo.

Holy Sh*t!!!!

SEC 2014

2014 SEC Predictions

SEC West

1. Alabama

2. Auburn
3. LSU
4. Ole Miss
5. Texas A&M
6. Mississippi State
7. Arkansas

SEC East

1. South Carolina

2. Georgia
3. Missouri
4. Florida
5. Tennessee
6. Vanderbilt
7. Kentucky

Tigers Boot Hogs

After LSU’s stellar performance against A&M and come from behind victory over Arkansas I started to think about this team’s place in Miles’ legacy and the LSU program overall.

The 2013 LSU offense is on track to be the most prolific in Tiger history. Averaging 465.9 yards per game this season places LSU 6th in the SEC this season. However, that number would rank 1st all time for LSU eclipsing the 2001 team that averaged 451.5 yards per game. Z Mett’s season is over with a torn ACL, but he did pass for 3,082 yards which would rank him 3rd only to Rohan Davey and Jamarcus Russell. Mett’s 61.8% career completion rate would rank him 3rd in LSU history behind Alan Risher and Jamarcus Russell. LSU is also on pace to set the record for rushing TD’s in a season (2012, 35). LSU is averaging 5.1 yards per carry which would be the best number since 1997 (5.4 yds/carry). LSU is #1 in the nation in 3rd down conversions at an eye popping 58.57%. Finally, the Tigers are averaging 37 points per game, 2nd all-time only to the 2007 National Championship team. Add the fact that the ’07 has 20 more take aways than this team and you can truly appreciate how productive this offense was. Clearly Cam Cameron has made a huge difference.

Unfortunately, this year’s defense struggled mightily in LSU’s three losses. As I mentioned earlier, LSU did not force many turnovers this season, 16 to be exact. From 2010-2012, LSU averaged 31.6 turnovers gained per season. In the three losses, all on the road, the Tigers only gained three turnovers while coughing up the ball six times. In those games the defense gave up an average of 188 yards on the ground and 275 through the air. Statistically, this was Chavis’ most porous, defense, giving up 5.21 yards a play. For perspective, that places LSU 4th in the SEC and 36th nationally, not bad for Chavis’ “worst” defense.

So what was the problem? Here are my thoughts:

1. Youth! The defense had so many new faces I actually had to bring a copy of the roster to the first few games. Young guys make mistakes, especially away from home. I think it was clear how much better the defense played at home versus on the road.

2. Our two starting DT’s, Ego Ferguson and Anthony ‘Freak’ Johnson, just are not up to the standards LSU has set in the past. These two guys would NEVER be confused with terrific Tigers from the past like Chad Lavalais, Glenn Dorsey, Kyle Williams or Drake Nevis. Yet it appears that both will declare early for the NFL Draft. Yeah, I don’t get that one either. Lack of depth at the position didn’t help either.

3. None of the young LB’s has been unable to unseat D.J. Welter. I’m not bashing Welter, but it appears that he is one of the less athletic players at a very important position. Think of Kevin Minter and Kelvin Sheppard who have starred at the spot and went on to the NFL. My guess is the coaches don’t trust any of the young guys to get LSU in the right spots and “QB” the defense which I assume is Welter’s responsibility.

Having said all that I really think we should put this season in its proper context. LSU has now won 8 or more games in 14 consecutive seasons. That leads the nation. With a win in the bowl game the Tigers will have four consecutive 10 win seasons for the first time in school history. We are in the Golden Age of LSU Football.

Looking at this season in particular, the Tigers lost by 3 in Athens to a loaded Georgia team that was subsequently decimated by injuries. The real disappointment was the 3 point loss at Ole Miss. I think LSU is a better team than Ole Miss, but Z Mett played the worst game of his career and LSU’s young defense could not bail out the terrible first half performance. Finally there was the loss at Alabama which I think was a bit closer than the final score. LSU went toe to toe with the Tide for 40 minutes but down the stretch LSU could not stop Alabama’s running game between the tackles. (Yes, I am talking about the aforementioned “pro ready” Mr. Ferguson and Mr. Johnson)

While this season could be viewed as a disappointment, I think it was exciting and had some memorable moments. The Georgia game was a thriller while the comeback versus Arkansas will be memorable if only for the last 2 minutes. Beat downs of Auburn and Texas A&M show that LSU still has the players to compete at the highest level and that Tiger Stadium is a fortress where in the immortal words of Les Miles, “Dreams go to die.”

Cheer up Tiger fans, a potential trip to the Cotton Bowl versus Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Texas could put a 10 win bow on another damn strong season of LSU football.

Johnny Football Travels to Death Valley

Johnny Football makes his first and probably final appearance at LSU this Saturday. LSU bottled him up last season but don’t expect a repeat of that performance. A few keys to the game (some cut and paste from 2 weeks ago):

* LSU must be able to run the ball. Under Les, the Tigers are 87-9 when they rush for 100 yards or more.

* The offense must click early. Les Miles is 64-6 at LSU when leading after the first quarter.

* The secondary is going to have to come up with at least 2 turnovers. The Tigers won’t force many punts, so turnovers and red zone defense are keys.

* Get off the field on 3rd down. Given what we have seen this year, I would be in favor of more risk taking by Chavis and crew on 3rd downs; we need to take some chances to create a big play.

LSU has played much better at home this season and is 13-1 in SEC home games since 2010. The Tigers are 31-2 in all home games since 2009. Those two loses were to Florida and Alabama, both ranked #1 in the country at the time of those games. Miles is 22-1 after a loss at LSU and has a career record of 4-2 versus A&M.

This is going to be a shootout, but look for LSU to make just a few more plays than A&M in the 4th quarter.


LSU 45 – A&M 42

Tigers Fade as Tide Rolls

For 40 minutes the LSU Tigers played the Alabama Crimson Tide to a standstill. Despite two first half turnovers, LSU and Alabama stood tied at 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. But befitting the mark of a championship team, Alabama proceeded to grind out three touchdowns while keeping LSU scoreless the rest of the way, final score Alabama 38- LSU 17.

Offense

* Z Mett is a warrior. He was harassed all night but finished 16 for 23 with 241 yards, 1 TD and ZERO INT’s.

* The offensive line again stunk against a good team. In LSU’s three losses, all on the road, the Tigers have averaged 78 yards per game, 2.29 yards per carry and have given up 11 sacks. You cannot win in the SEC with numbers like that. Miles needs to take a very hard look at the offensive line coach Greg Strudrawa.

* You cannot fumble on the one yard line going in to open the game 7-0, just a terrible mistake by Copeland.

* Not sure why Terrence Magee got so many carries on Saturday. He’s very good, but Hill is your bell cow, run him.

Defense

* The defense played very well in the first half. The second half was another story. Alabama scored touchdowns on 5 long drives pummeling the Tiger’s defense in the process.

* The numbers on LSU’s three road losses are not pretty:

1. Opponents scored 36 points per game

2. Opponents gained and average 188 yards on the ground

3. Opponents averaged 463 yards of offense

4. Minus 3 in turnover margin

* LSU was smashed between the tackles Saturday night.

Alabama is an excellent team and executed at a very high level. It is a tribute to Saban that he has his players ready to go every single week. Tiger fans need to relax and understand that Alabama is doing this to everyone and the Tide are in the midst of a potential unprecedented 3 consecutive national titles.

There needs to be improvement as LSU prepares for Texas A&M. The offense will have to win this game because I have zero faith in the defense withstanding the Johnny Football onslaught. Enjoy the games this weekend and get ready for a wild shootout on November 23.

Bama Week

It’s Bama week. If LSU can win this one, all will be forgiven.

What to look for on offense:

* LSU must be able to run the ball. Under Les, the Tigers are 87-9 when they rush for 100 yards or more.

* The offense must click early. Les Miles is 64-6 at LSU when leading after the first quarter.

* Z Mett must protect the ball. He has thrown 5 INT’s in last two games. LSU can’t win if they turn the ball over.

* Last year Les called a few plays that cost the Tigers. He needs to get a better feel of the flow of this game to decide when and if to gamble.

What to look for on defense:

* When LSU blitzes, they have to get to McCarron. LSU is going to need big negative plays to stop Alabama. They won’t be able to just go toe to toe and stop Bama’s offensive drives.

* The secondary is going to have to come up with at least 2 turnovers. If these blitzes do indeed bring pressure, the secondary is going to have to CATCH THE BALL when the opportunity presents itself.

* Get off the field on 3rd down. Given what we have seen this year, I would be in favor of more risk taking by Chavis and crew on 3rd downs. We are not strong enough or experienced enough to play straight up; we need to take some chances.

What to expect from Alabama:

* Ground and pound and occasionally go up top. Alabama is averaging 39 rushes and 29 passes per game in their 5 SEC games. The Crimson Tide lead the league in yards per play with 7.79.

* On defense, Alabama has been suffocating giving up only 11.8 points a game in 5 SEC contests. Take out the A&M game and it goes down to 4.25 points per game.

* I would add this little caveat though, Alabama was shredded by Manziel. The other 4 SEC games were against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas. They are ranked 47, 87, 92 and 108 respectively in scoring offense. They failed utterly against the one true potent offense they faced.

What will happen:

This series has been dominated by the road team going back to 1982. Since that break through victory over Bear Bryant in Alabama by Jerry Stovall’s Tigers, the road team has an amazing 22-8-1 record. LSU is 9-5 versus Alabama since 2000 (Miles is 5-4 versus Bama).

This game will play out like most of the games in the series, a tight contest marked by one team making plays in the fourth quarter to “secure victory.” LSU will play well, but this is the #1 team in country with the #1 coach on the sidelines.

LSU 24 – Alabama 34

Break Time

Fans always want to read WAY too much into games like these. LSU was never going to lose this game. Period. And there was nothing LSU could have done to “impress” me with a victory. Furman was a rent-a-win scheduled to secure a 7th home game for a homecoming blowout.

OFFENSE

*Z Mett is in a little slump. He’s thrown 4 TD’s and 5 INT’s in his last three games. Let’s hope the week off lets him rest up and refocus for the best defense he will face all year.

*ODB had a career night with 204 receiving yards and 2 TD’s. But he has got to stop fumbling punts.

*Jeremy Hill continues to roll with his 5th 100 yard game of the season.

DEFENSE

* The defense was sluggish in the first half but played extremely well in the second. The Tigers gave up a measly 39 yards in the final 30 minutes.

* This LSU team is on pass to tally 8 INT’s for the season. That is the smallest amount since 2008. For comparison, from 2009-2012 the Tigers averaged 17 INT’s a season. Overall, from 2010-2012, LSU forced an average of 31 turnovers a season. This year, the Tigers are on pace for only 17 takeaways.

* I would like to see Kendall Beckwith get more playing time. He looks like he has the potential to be very good.

Odds & Ends

There is a very good article here from And The Valley Shook regarding the LSU fan base. It is a thought I have espoused for a long time. That is:

Get over being mad. It’s a football game. It’s young men running around and crashing into each other. You can’t win every game. I will never forget after the exciting win over Arkansas in 2009 how the LSU fans around me looked furious about how the game played out. We won! Be excited! Don’t bring your miserable life around this program!

I hear this TIRED mantra about LSU being so much more talented then everyone else and we never live up to our talent, blah, blah, blah. That is a complete MYTH. Yes LSU is very talented, so is A&M, Alabama, Missouri, Georgia and any number of other teams. The disparity in talent is very slim.

The other misguided anger involves the head coach “not getting the players up for the game.” This plays into our societal cop-out of refusing to force individuals to take responsibilities for themselves and their actions. We want to blame anyone except the party responsible. If a player can’t motivate himself to play, the blame lies with the player. True fire and passion cannot be “coached” into a player. Crappy game plan, blame the coaches. Crappy effort, blame the players.

We have a week off after nine straight weeks of LSU football. I think that long stretch may have taken a toll on the players and played into the loss to Ole Miss. The break should rejuvenate the Tigers for the biggest test of the season on November 9.

Maximum Carnage

This week’s 3 thoughts:

* There were 5 upsets in the SEC this weekend: Ole Miss over LSU, Tennessee over South Carolina, Vanderbilt over Georgia, Auburn over A&M and Missouri over Florida. Had you bet the money line parlay on those five dogs, the payout would have been 630-1. Nice!

* All of the “what if?” scenarios about the BCS this early in the season are a waste of time. All that talk about Louisville going undefeated was hot air. Focus on the week at hand because things change every Saturday.

* It is well known that I hate Alabama. Like all good hate it has grown over the years. I have a feeling the hate will continue to grow after this year’s LSU v. Alabama tilt. But I must say that what Saban has done in his 7 years with the Tide has been remarkable. With all of the foibles and drama that surrounds 18-22 year old college men (boys), Saban has produced an unrelenting machine that grinds opponents into the turf. In the past five weeks, Alabama has given up 6,0,3,7 and 0 points. Sure the opponents are terrible. But to keep his players focused on the task at hand when it would be so easy to look ahead to down the road is remarkable. When Saban finally ends his coaching career, don’t be surprised to hear him called “the greatest college football coach…ever.”

BCS

More shakeups in the BCS games, and not for the better either.

Rose: Ohio State v. UCLA
Orange: Florida State v. Oklahoma
Fiesta: Texas v. Fresno State
Sugar: Auburn v. UCF
National Title: Alabama v. Oregon

The Playoffs

Just for fun, if the College Football Playoffs were in effect for 2013, they might look like this if the season ended today:

Sugar (Semi): Alabama v. Ohio State
Rose (Semi): Oregon v. Florida State
Orange: Miami v. Missouri
Cotton: Baylor v. Auburn
Chick-fil-a: Clemson v. Texas Tech
Fiesta: Stanford v. Fresno State