Numbers that Count

Now that Jefferson is back on the team, let me make my argument why he should NEVER see the field.

1. 11th rated passer in SEC last season. Second to last.

2. 92nd rated passer in NCAA last season.

3. 10th in the SEC in yards per attempt.

4. 83rd in the country in completion percentage.

5. For a "QB that makes plays with his feet" he averaged a paltry 3.66 per carry in 2010. Take out the 83 yard run against Tennessee and he only averaged THREE yards a carry on the other 122 rushes.

6. He ranked OUTSIDE the top 100 in passing yards per game. I can't even tell you his rank out of the 120 FBS schools because the rankings don't post beyond 100.

7. Of the 19 SEC QB's rated for 4th quarter efficiency in 2010, Jefferson was 16th.

8. Of the 15 SEC QB's rated for 3rd down efficiency in 2010, Jefferson was rated 13th.

9. Amongst QB's, Jefferson was ranked 9th in the SEC in yards per play at 5.6.

So tell me what this guy brings to the table...

Misty Mountain Beat Down

Another road trip. Another beat down.

LSU essentially blew out WVU twice, once in the the first half which ended 27-7. Then again in the second half, after the Mountaineers cut the lead to 21-27, LSU ran off three straight TD's starting off with Mo Claiborne's 99 yard KOI return.

Lee was fantastic again. His QB rating is 30 points higher than Jefferson's mark last year and with one more TD pass ties Jefferson's total from ALL of last season. This offense is fun to watch which I haven't been able to say for years.

The defense OVERALL was nothing special Saturday. There were way too many missed tackles and Smith passed for over 400 yards. However, Tyrann Mathieu did say after the game that the field was very slippery which may explain some of the poor tackling. WVU was going almost exclusively to three step drops which makes it very difficult to pressure the QB. Regardless, LSU kept the WVU recievers in front of them and didn't give up many big plays against a very good offense. Remember, WVU is ranked 3rd nationally in passing offense, 24th in total offense. Geno Smith is very talented and the Mountaineers were playing at home.

The one thing the defense did do was make big plays, none bigger than Mathieu's leaping tip of a Smith pass which he then grabbed out of the air and returned to the 1. The Tigers were +4 in the turnover department picking off Smith twice. The run defense was also stout as usual giving up only 70 yards on 22 carries.

The Tigers get Kentucky at home this weekend for the first meeting between the schools since LSU's triple OT loss in 2007. Expect another efficient performance on offense and a defense looking to improve off last week's effort. Bad news for the Wildcats.

LSU 45 - UK 13

A Plea for the Status Quo

Regardless of what happens in the Grand Jury hearing the Jordan Jefferson case, I don't want the guy back. I know, that's not very PC or very nice. If he's innocent why should he be off the team? If he didn't do anything wrong, why should he be punished?

Because it's not about him, it's about the LSU football program. Ask yourself, would it be in the best interest of the LSU football program for Jefferson to be reinstated?

In my opinion, no it would not.

This team has performed very well thus far and has stayed focused on the task at hand. Lee has done a good job of running the offense and minimizing negative plays. He is the clear cut starter at the most important position on the team. How many times did we hear last season, "LSU is a very good team, but Jordan Jefferson is the quarterback..."?

Bringing Jefferson back would bring a plethora of distractions and internal divisions. If he came back the first question for Miles would be, "who is starting at QB?" No matter the answer to the question, there would be some negativity, externally and internally. Fairly or not, Jefferson has been a lightening rod for criticism on this team. Were he to be put back on the field I have no doubt many fans would have a negative reaction. Last season a caller to Miles' radio show asked the coach if Jefferson had naked pictures of him. Cat calls and general disgust would only increase. There would also be locker room division, some players and coaches supporting Lee and others Jefferson.

If Lee loses a game, no one will be saying, "had Jefferson been playing, we would have won that game." But should Jefferson come in and play poorly leading to an LSU defeat, you can be assured EVERYONE, LSU fans, the media and the players would be second guessing Miles decision.

Finally, the Shady's incident won't go away. There will be a civil suit that keeps this story alive throughout the season. Jefferson's presence will keep that cloud hovering over this team.

Maybe I'm not as worried about Jefferson being on the team as I am about him actually seeing the field. Maybe i just don't trust Miles' to make the right calls on this. I just don't think I could stand to watch Jefferson in all his incompetence run that option play one more time.

Addition by Subtraction

Not since 2007 have I left a "body bag" game feeling so good about the Tigers.  LSU took care of business with crisp execution and smart play, no flopping around, no struggling with a clearly inferior opponent.  Versus McNeese last season, Jefferson finished with a QB rating of 91.  Last night, Lee went 9 for 10 with 133 yards and a TD.  Lee had a QB rating of 234.  Lights out!!  No way LSU is so efficient with Jefferson.

The past two weeks, the offense has shown a clear identity and solid productivity.  How many times over the last few seasons have we seen delay of game penalties? Last second time outs to avoid a delay of game? Substitution violations? LSU's QB looking lost?  None of that this season.  Lee is on his way to having a very good season.

Did Mettenberger look great?  I know it was Northwestern State, but good players come out and execute against inferior opponents.  I was really pleased that the staff allowed Mettenberger to throw the ball.  He finished 8 for 11 with 92 yards and 1 very nice TD pass to Kadrone Boone.

The defense was fantastic.  LSU held the Demons to -4 yards rushing and 95 yards of total offense.  LSU rotated guys in all night yet was suffocating throughout.

Next Week

Mississippi State lost a heart breaker Saturday at Auburn.  MSU's QB, Chris Relf, was stuffed at the 1 yard line as time ran out.  Now the Bulldogs must turn around on a short week and host LSU on Thursday night.  The Tigers were able to rest key players and get plenty of reps for some younger players.  Spencer Ware, who I expect to get 20 plus carries against MSU, only toted the ball 6 times against NWSU. 

This will be another big test for Lee.  Thursday will be his first true road game start since October 18, 2008 at South Carolina.  I think his confidence will continue to grow as the Tigers get victory number three this season.  Expect plenty of Ware and Ford and enough Lee to keep the chains moving.  LSU's defense will match up well against State.  The Bulldogs only managed 7 points against LSU last season.

LSU 33 - MSU17

Duck Hunt

Searching the web, I was hard pressed to find anyone picking the Tigers to win this weekend.  As usual, the bloggers, writers and talking heads all fall in love with flashy QB’s, speedy running backs and flavor of the month coaches.  But once again, line play dictated the outcome of a matchup of heavy weights.

Oregon’s vaunted running game racked up only 95 yards on 28 carries.  The Ducks averaged 286 yards a game last season.  But with three new starters versus LSU’s extremely talented defensive front, Oregon could not run the ball with any consistency.  On the other side, LSU’s offensive line gradually began exerting itself eventually leading to three rushing touchdowns and 175 yards.  Again the Ducks only returned two of the defensive front seven.

Turnovers certainly played a role in the game with LSU finishing plus three in that category.  But the Tigers were able to convert behind a solid and experienced offensive line.

Jarrett Lee didn’t play great, but he did what the coaches asked of him.  He converted on some key plays and didn’t kill LSU.  There were a number of drops and he had a really nice deep completion to Beckham called back by a penalty.  The big thing was no interceptions.  (Here is a great link on Lee if you are a stats geek like me.)  Hopefully as he season progresses he will become more confident and grow under Kragthorpe’s tutelage.  With Jefferson out of the picture, Lee will get the vast majority of reps and work.

Tyrann Mathieu is a flat out ‘Balla.’  He just makes plays.

What you saw Saturday in Dallas is Miles’ vision of LSU football, running out of the I-formation, play action passes, three wides sprinkled in and plenty of action for the tight-ends.  LSU’s goal is probably to have 180 yards passing and 220 yards rushing per game.  With a fantastic defense and good special teams, the Tigers can win a lot of games with that formula.

Pre-Season Random Mussings

*Would love to comment on The Jefferson Thing but can't.

*I like Florida State and Alabama in the National Title game. Noles are ready in their second year under Jimbo and Alabama returns so many linemen on both sides of the ball.

*Surprise Team: West Virginia

*Flop Team: Stanford

*The Heisman Trophy is the most over hyped and overrated award in sports.

*Three games I most want to watch this season: LSU v. Alabama, Oklahoma v. Florida State, Nebraska v. Penn State.

*TV analyst I like the least: Craig James (I'm not alone either)

*TV analyst I like the most: Chris Spielman

*TV Play by Play guy I like the most: Sean McDonough

*Three things I am most interested in this upcoming season:

1. How does the fallout from scandals at USC, UNC, Ohio State and Miami affect these team's seasons?
2. Can the SEC make it 6 straight?
3.  Will Les Miles ever learn that his use of the word, "want" is dramatically incorrect and makes him look like a boob?

"Now, in terms of the issue of clocking it, certainly there was every want to win that game."

- LSUSports.net Nov 23, 2009

SEC East

1. South Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Florida
4. Tennessee
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt

*Cocky and the Bulldogs mix it up in Athens the second week of the season. Obviously the winner will have a huge leg up on the East race. South Carolina gets a nice warm up in week one against East Carolina while Georgia will play a tough opponent in Boise State. It will be tough for Georgia to maintain that emotional intensity two weeks in a row. BTW: Marcus Lattimore is a stud.

*Florida is extremely young on the offensive line. Expect trouble against the tougher teams on the schedule.

*Tennessee is going to play a number of close games this season. Don't be surprised to see a few upsets.

*Between UK and Vandy, look for one to get to 6 wins and a bowl game.

SEC West

Here are my predictions for the upcoming season.  Take them with a grain of salt.  Of the 12 participants in the SEC Title game over the last six years, I have only correctly picked four. (LSU in ’05 and ’07, UT in ’07 and Florida in ’09)

SEC West

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
4. Miss. State
5. Auburn
6. Ole Miss

*Here is a break down of the 20 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	7	5-2
Junior	8	4-4
Sophomore	5	1-4
Freshman	0	0-0

* Obviously having an upperclassman at the helm greatly increases a team's chances to win the division.  Once you actually get to Atlanta, having an upperclassman at QB is critical to victory.  The only sophomore to win in the last ten years was Georgia's David Greene in 2002.  Greene was a special player finishing his career with 42 victories, second most in NCAA history behind Colt McCoy.  By the time he started the 2002 SEC Title Game, he had 24 starts under his belt.

* Alabama has one sophomore, A.J. McCarron who has thrown 48 passes in his career, and three freshman on the roster at the quarterback position.  Sure the defense will be lights out, but is Alabama good enough to buck history and win with an untested quarterback?

* I have LSU second for two reasons.  Number one, LSU's schedule is rough and the Alabama game is on the road.  Two, while I am happy for Jarrett Lee that he is going to finally get his shot after a tough freshman season, it is unclear whether he can lead LSU to a title.  There was no way Jefferson was good enough to bring LSU a title.  But could this be a dream season for Lee?  I hope so.

* Auburn’s offensive linemen have a combined 15 starts between them, that ranks 118^th in the nation.  Auburn is going to really struggle this season.  The talking heads never appreciate the importance of an experienced offensive line.

* The Knile Davis injury really hurts Arkansas.  His loss could possibly the difference between winning the division and finishing third.

AP Poll Top 10 Busts

Could LSU end up on this list?

Miles by the Numbers

Here is an interesting article on Miles' tenure at LSU.  Coaches By the Numbers

SEC Previews

Sports Illustrated

College Football News

ESPN

Pay for Play, part III

GREED: excessive desire, as for wealth or power

-World English Dictionary

There is a school of thought that openly paying players through a stipend would reduce cheating and end the hypocrisy that surrounds college football.  The cheating being $100 handshakes, under the table payments, extra benefits etc. and the hypocrisy of all the money involved in college football and the view of college football as a “semi-professional” football league.

The argument just doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.  Some coaches and programs are going to cheat regardless of what the players get paid.  The theory is that if the athletes get enough money to cover their school expenses, then they will turn down the cash or benefits being offered from boosters/agents/hangers on.  Get real.  You think Donald Trump with his empire is going to turn down a $100 no strings attached gift?  These athletes are still going to have their hands out NO MATTER HOW MUCH YOU GIVE THEM.

As for the issue of inequality, there is something to be said for coaches getting paid millions of dollars while the athletes are limited to NCAA regulated scholarships.  But I’ve got a news flash for you; inequality has been around since the beginning of humanity.  When the first two people on earth lived next to each other, by definition, one had to be “rich” and the other “poor.”  Again it goes back to market factors.  There are very few Nick Saban/ Bob Stoops class head coaches out there.  There are plenty of guys that can run 4.5 second 40-yard dashes and can tackle in space.  Forcing equality in a situation that a market does not demand such is inefficient and a misguided attempt at social engineering.

Dirty Ducks?

Did Oregon pay $25,000 to land Lache Seastrunk?

Oregon and LSU meet in the premier game of the first weekend of the 2011 college football season; and just like LSU’s 2010 opening opponent, Oregon will be under NCAA investigation.  If you recall, last season UNC was under investigation for a number of allegations involving the football team.  Now it appears Oregon is in the middle of a very suspicious set of facts which, to speak plainly, “stink to high heaven.”

The basic facts are as follows: On February 3, 2010, two high school players based in south Texas, Lache Seastrunk (5 star, rated #3 RB in country) and Dontae Williams (4 star, rated #12 RB in country) sign with Oregon.  It is well known that a man named Willie Lyles is a “mentor/confidant” of both players.   One month later, Oregon pays Lyles $25,000 for recruiting information on the 2011 recruiting class.  It turns out that NOT ONE player profiled in Lyles booklet was a member of the 2011 class.  Most were from the 2009 class, making the “information” Lyles provided virtually worthless.  Oregon’s current starting RB is LaMichael James.  James is from south Texas as well and was also “mentored” by Lyles.

Thus far Oregon has not made any substantive comments regarding the facts that have come to light.  Not surprising since the NCAA is digging deep into the Oregon program.  Apologist would have you believe that the unscrupulous Lyles duped Oregon and the signings of James, Seastrunk and Williams are merely a coincidence.  No way I buy that.  Oregon’s head coach Chip Kelly is one of the sharpest guys in the business and college football head coaches are notorious control freaks.  Did I mention that even after Lyles delivered the virtually worthless 2011 packet, Oregon continued to do business with him?  The NCAA is going to slap Oregon for this; the only questions are how serious will the penalties be and who gets pink slipped.

Play for Pay, part II

“Forty thousand dollars-plus a year to play, that's a pretty good salary for an 18-year-old that has no college education, if you think about it that way.” 

-Matt Howard, Butler basketball player

According to an article appearing in USA Today, the average basketball scholarship is worth $120,000.  You can argue about the methodology of arriving at this number, but certainly there is no dispute that college athletes are compensated in some form for their athletic performances.  The question asked by many, are these college athletes getting enough?

I would answer with a resounding YES!

For me, the most compelling argument is based on the nature of the system. Meaning that no one is forced to participate in college athletics.  No one has a gun put to his or her head.  No one is forced to sign with a school under duress.  The system is completely voluntary.  As with any job opportunity, if you don’t like the compensation package, don’t take the job.

But what about the poor kids that don’t have money and an athletic scholarship is their only way to college?  My answer to that is the following question, “since when is it the role of a college athletics department to engage in social engineering and welfare programs?”  This question is especially poignant in light of all of the financial assistance that is offered to ALL students.  Low interest loans, grants and many other sources are available to student athletes.  Why should these athletes be GIVEN more benefits that fans pay for when these other resources exist?

College football is a business, a billion dollar business.  Thus basic economic concepts can be applied to college football’s business model.  When it comes to labor, an analysis of simple supply and demand argues against any additional compensation to athletes.  Every year an enormous pool of seniors graduate from high school looking to take advantage of athletic scholarships.  The supply of potential talent, especially available to BCS schools far outnumbers the available scholarships offered each year.  From a strictly financial view, why would a person pay $10 for something they could get for $6?

Finally, looking at the issue in broader terms, how do we want to view our college athletes?  Does it bother you if they become true semi-professionals?  What message do we send to non-athlete students and young high schoolers growing up?  What exactly is the mission of the university in respect to the athletic department?

This is Our Starting Quarterback

Jordan Jefferson Confuses Thomas and George Jefferson

 LSU will NOT be "Moving on Up" this fall with this guy under center...

Play for Pay, Part I

This is the first of four posts regarding the issue of paying college athletes where I will attempt to address the main arguments of proponents of a Play for Pay system. 

1. Schools are making millions off athletes.

Currently there are 120 teams in Division I (FBS) football.  NCAA data from 2009 shows that only 14 of the 120 teams finished in the black for that fiscal year.  The median “net generated negative revenue” (loss) among the 106 teams that lost money was $10 million dollars.  88% of all athletic departments finished in the red, yet some advocates of stipends want to spend MORE MONEY.

Lets go even deeper into this argument.  The naïve and uninformed want to treat football as a separate entity of an athletic department.  It’s not.  Football by itself generally does well.  But an athletic department must manage all of the intercollegiate sports a school supports and comply with Title IX requirements regarding gender equity.  At many schools, football covers for sports that generate a loss, be they men’s or women’s teams.

There is no way a school could pay football players exclusively without running afoul of the Title IX gender requirements that students be treated equally and have the same opportunities.  So we are not talking about just paying football players, but paying EVERY SINGLE ATHLETE ON CAMPUS.  Where are these funds going to come from?

Which leads to my final point on the issue.  Who is going to pay for these stipends?  As in any business, when production costs rises, this is passed on to the consumer.  Why would college athletics be any different?  Tickets to the LSU v. Bama game are $70 face value.  For a family of four it would cost over $300 to attend the game with snacks and souvenirs.  Alabama can get away with that, but what about Tulane, UL Monroe or Southern Miss?  No one is going to pay that kind of money to see those schools.

Proponents of a pay system only look at the "star" athletes and giant programs without looking at the system as a whole.  Athletic departments must be looked at broadly to appreciate all the responsibilities these entities have.  The bottom line is that the funding is just not there to pay college athletes in addition to the scholarships they receive.  

The bigger question I will address in a later post will go beyond the practical issues and cut right to the heart of the matter.  What is the mission of college athletics?  Where do they fit in the mission of higher education as a whole?  Going forward, what do we want college athletics to look like?

Play for Pay

Recently, a BCS conference commissioner openly discussed the idea of adding a stipend to the scholarships now offered in college football. Steve Spurrier has even offered to pay from his own pocket. These ideas are nothing new. The idea of play for pay in college has been kicked around for years. What the idea needs is to be kicked to the curb.

The play for pay guys will tell you that these “poor student athletes” are making millions of dollars for their schools yet are not being compensated appropriately. Why should State U get all this cash when the players only get a lousy tuition and room and board scholarship? Plus the players are getting paid under the table, so lets put all above board and stop the hypocrisy and the cheating.

In my mind, all of the reasoning above is total bunk. I will be posting my thoughts in three parts over the next few days.

LSU Preview on ESPN

Spring Football

I know it’s only May, but with spring practice wrapped up I’m ready to roll out a few bold predictions and few no brainers. As always, I love mail so feel free to write me at prowler257@aol.com.

* Jordan Jefferson is still garbage. Let me be more specific, he plays football like garbage. I don’t know if he’s a good guy, good teammate or hard worker. I don’t know if he understands the playbook or how high he would score on an IQ test. But after watching him play QB for 2 plus seasons, I’m confident in putting him in the garbage category. The numbers back me up. The following stats are from 2010 conference games only. (Courtesy of cfbstats.com)

Statistic		SEC Rank
QB Rating	114.91	9th
Comp. %	57.4	8th
TD Passes	2	13th
INT's	6	6th
Yards/Game	118	11th
4th Qtr Efficiency	115.56	16th
Yards/Play	6.2	8th

* This time last year I was defending Jefferson with the expectation (hope?) that he would produce. In 2011 I agree with these guys.

* The 4th quarter efficiency rating is an interesting stat. LSU played a number of tight games in 2010 and being clutch in the final stanza was key. Guess who finished second in the league in that category. Jarett Lee. The only player statistically better won the Heisman trophy. LSU doesn’t beat Tennessee, Florida or Alabama without Lee. Tell me again why he doesn’t play more.

* Spencer Ware is the real deal. He looked great in the Cotton Bowl and shined at LSU’s Spring game.

*LSU will NOT win the division much less the SEC with Jefferson. At some point in the season we will need the QB to make plays and Jefferson does not have it in him.

*LSU’s defense will be very good once again. They will have to be because the offense will only be marginally better with Jefferson under center.

*I like the Tigers to go 10-2 this season. LSU will split these four games, Oregon, West Virginia, Alabama and Tennessee.

*LSU will go 6-0 at home and end the season with a 17 game home winning streak. The longest in the history of LSU football (?)

Sweet Pete