SEC West

Here are my predictions for the upcoming season.  Take them with a grain of salt.  Of the 12 participants in the SEC Title game over the last six years, I have only correctly picked four. (LSU in ’05 and ’07, UT in ’07 and Florida in ’09)

SEC West

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
4. Miss. State
5. Auburn
6. Ole Miss

*Here is a break down of the 20 starting quarterbacks that have led their teams to the SEC Title game since 2001.

Class	#	Record
Senior	7	5-2
Junior	8	4-4
Sophomore	5	1-4
Freshman	0	0-0

* Obviously having an upperclassman at the helm greatly increases a team's chances to win the division.  Once you actually get to Atlanta, having an upperclassman at QB is critical to victory.  The only sophomore to win in the last ten years was Georgia's David Greene in 2002.  Greene was a special player finishing his career with 42 victories, second most in NCAA history behind Colt McCoy.  By the time he started the 2002 SEC Title Game, he had 24 starts under his belt.

* Alabama has one sophomore, A.J. McCarron who has thrown 48 passes in his career, and three freshman on the roster at the quarterback position.  Sure the defense will be lights out, but is Alabama good enough to buck history and win with an untested quarterback?

* I have LSU second for two reasons.  Number one, LSU's schedule is rough and the Alabama game is on the road.  Two, while I am happy for Jarrett Lee that he is going to finally get his shot after a tough freshman season, it is unclear whether he can lead LSU to a title.  There was no way Jefferson was good enough to bring LSU a title.  But could this be a dream season for Lee?  I hope so.

* Auburn’s offensive linemen have a combined 15 starts between them, that ranks 118^th in the nation.  Auburn is going to really struggle this season.  The talking heads never appreciate the importance of an experienced offensive line.

* The Knile Davis injury really hurts Arkansas.  His loss could possibly the difference between winning the division and finishing third.

AP Poll Top 10 Busts

Could LSU end up on this list?

Miles by the Numbers

Here is an interesting article on Miles' tenure at LSU.  Coaches By the Numbers

SEC Previews

Sports Illustrated

College Football News

ESPN

Pay for Play, part III

GREED: excessive desire, as for wealth or power

-World English Dictionary

There is a school of thought that openly paying players through a stipend would reduce cheating and end the hypocrisy that surrounds college football.  The cheating being $100 handshakes, under the table payments, extra benefits etc. and the hypocrisy of all the money involved in college football and the view of college football as a “semi-professional” football league.

The argument just doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.  Some coaches and programs are going to cheat regardless of what the players get paid.  The theory is that if the athletes get enough money to cover their school expenses, then they will turn down the cash or benefits being offered from boosters/agents/hangers on.  Get real.  You think Donald Trump with his empire is going to turn down a $100 no strings attached gift?  These athletes are still going to have their hands out NO MATTER HOW MUCH YOU GIVE THEM.

As for the issue of inequality, there is something to be said for coaches getting paid millions of dollars while the athletes are limited to NCAA regulated scholarships.  But I’ve got a news flash for you; inequality has been around since the beginning of humanity.  When the first two people on earth lived next to each other, by definition, one had to be “rich” and the other “poor.”  Again it goes back to market factors.  There are very few Nick Saban/ Bob Stoops class head coaches out there.  There are plenty of guys that can run 4.5 second 40-yard dashes and can tackle in space.  Forcing equality in a situation that a market does not demand such is inefficient and a misguided attempt at social engineering.

Dirty Ducks?

Did Oregon pay $25,000 to land Lache Seastrunk?

Oregon and LSU meet in the premier game of the first weekend of the 2011 college football season; and just like LSU’s 2010 opening opponent, Oregon will be under NCAA investigation.  If you recall, last season UNC was under investigation for a number of allegations involving the football team.  Now it appears Oregon is in the middle of a very suspicious set of facts which, to speak plainly, “stink to high heaven.”

The basic facts are as follows: On February 3, 2010, two high school players based in south Texas, Lache Seastrunk (5 star, rated #3 RB in country) and Dontae Williams (4 star, rated #12 RB in country) sign with Oregon.  It is well known that a man named Willie Lyles is a “mentor/confidant” of both players.   One month later, Oregon pays Lyles $25,000 for recruiting information on the 2011 recruiting class.  It turns out that NOT ONE player profiled in Lyles booklet was a member of the 2011 class.  Most were from the 2009 class, making the “information” Lyles provided virtually worthless.  Oregon’s current starting RB is LaMichael James.  James is from south Texas as well and was also “mentored” by Lyles.

Thus far Oregon has not made any substantive comments regarding the facts that have come to light.  Not surprising since the NCAA is digging deep into the Oregon program.  Apologist would have you believe that the unscrupulous Lyles duped Oregon and the signings of James, Seastrunk and Williams are merely a coincidence.  No way I buy that.  Oregon’s head coach Chip Kelly is one of the sharpest guys in the business and college football head coaches are notorious control freaks.  Did I mention that even after Lyles delivered the virtually worthless 2011 packet, Oregon continued to do business with him?  The NCAA is going to slap Oregon for this; the only questions are how serious will the penalties be and who gets pink slipped.

Play for Pay, part II

“Forty thousand dollars-plus a year to play, that's a pretty good salary for an 18-year-old that has no college education, if you think about it that way.” 

-Matt Howard, Butler basketball player

According to an article appearing in USA Today, the average basketball scholarship is worth $120,000.  You can argue about the methodology of arriving at this number, but certainly there is no dispute that college athletes are compensated in some form for their athletic performances.  The question asked by many, are these college athletes getting enough?

I would answer with a resounding YES!

For me, the most compelling argument is based on the nature of the system. Meaning that no one is forced to participate in college athletics.  No one has a gun put to his or her head.  No one is forced to sign with a school under duress.  The system is completely voluntary.  As with any job opportunity, if you don’t like the compensation package, don’t take the job.

But what about the poor kids that don’t have money and an athletic scholarship is their only way to college?  My answer to that is the following question, “since when is it the role of a college athletics department to engage in social engineering and welfare programs?”  This question is especially poignant in light of all of the financial assistance that is offered to ALL students.  Low interest loans, grants and many other sources are available to student athletes.  Why should these athletes be GIVEN more benefits that fans pay for when these other resources exist?

College football is a business, a billion dollar business.  Thus basic economic concepts can be applied to college football’s business model.  When it comes to labor, an analysis of simple supply and demand argues against any additional compensation to athletes.  Every year an enormous pool of seniors graduate from high school looking to take advantage of athletic scholarships.  The supply of potential talent, especially available to BCS schools far outnumbers the available scholarships offered each year.  From a strictly financial view, why would a person pay $10 for something they could get for $6?

Finally, looking at the issue in broader terms, how do we want to view our college athletes?  Does it bother you if they become true semi-professionals?  What message do we send to non-athlete students and young high schoolers growing up?  What exactly is the mission of the university in respect to the athletic department?

This is Our Starting Quarterback

Jordan Jefferson Confuses Thomas and George Jefferson

 LSU will NOT be "Moving on Up" this fall with this guy under center...

Play for Pay, Part I

This is the first of four posts regarding the issue of paying college athletes where I will attempt to address the main arguments of proponents of a Play for Pay system. 

1. Schools are making millions off athletes.

Currently there are 120 teams in Division I (FBS) football.  NCAA data from 2009 shows that only 14 of the 120 teams finished in the black for that fiscal year.  The median “net generated negative revenue” (loss) among the 106 teams that lost money was $10 million dollars.  88% of all athletic departments finished in the red, yet some advocates of stipends want to spend MORE MONEY.

Lets go even deeper into this argument.  The naïve and uninformed want to treat football as a separate entity of an athletic department.  It’s not.  Football by itself generally does well.  But an athletic department must manage all of the intercollegiate sports a school supports and comply with Title IX requirements regarding gender equity.  At many schools, football covers for sports that generate a loss, be they men’s or women’s teams.

There is no way a school could pay football players exclusively without running afoul of the Title IX gender requirements that students be treated equally and have the same opportunities.  So we are not talking about just paying football players, but paying EVERY SINGLE ATHLETE ON CAMPUS.  Where are these funds going to come from?

Which leads to my final point on the issue.  Who is going to pay for these stipends?  As in any business, when production costs rises, this is passed on to the consumer.  Why would college athletics be any different?  Tickets to the LSU v. Bama game are $70 face value.  For a family of four it would cost over $300 to attend the game with snacks and souvenirs.  Alabama can get away with that, but what about Tulane, UL Monroe or Southern Miss?  No one is going to pay that kind of money to see those schools.

Proponents of a pay system only look at the "star" athletes and giant programs without looking at the system as a whole.  Athletic departments must be looked at broadly to appreciate all the responsibilities these entities have.  The bottom line is that the funding is just not there to pay college athletes in addition to the scholarships they receive.  

The bigger question I will address in a later post will go beyond the practical issues and cut right to the heart of the matter.  What is the mission of college athletics?  Where do they fit in the mission of higher education as a whole?  Going forward, what do we want college athletics to look like?

Play for Pay

Recently, a BCS conference commissioner openly discussed the idea of adding a stipend to the scholarships now offered in college football. Steve Spurrier has even offered to pay from his own pocket. These ideas are nothing new. The idea of play for pay in college has been kicked around for years. What the idea needs is to be kicked to the curb.

The play for pay guys will tell you that these “poor student athletes” are making millions of dollars for their schools yet are not being compensated appropriately. Why should State U get all this cash when the players only get a lousy tuition and room and board scholarship? Plus the players are getting paid under the table, so lets put all above board and stop the hypocrisy and the cheating.

In my mind, all of the reasoning above is total bunk. I will be posting my thoughts in three parts over the next few days.

LSU Preview on ESPN

Spring Football

I know it’s only May, but with spring practice wrapped up I’m ready to roll out a few bold predictions and few no brainers. As always, I love mail so feel free to write me at prowler257@aol.com.

* Jordan Jefferson is still garbage. Let me be more specific, he plays football like garbage. I don’t know if he’s a good guy, good teammate or hard worker. I don’t know if he understands the playbook or how high he would score on an IQ test. But after watching him play QB for 2 plus seasons, I’m confident in putting him in the garbage category. The numbers back me up. The following stats are from 2010 conference games only. (Courtesy of cfbstats.com)

Statistic		SEC Rank
QB Rating	114.91	9th
Comp. %	57.4	8th
TD Passes	2	13th
INT's	6	6th
Yards/Game	118	11th
4th Qtr Efficiency	115.56	16th
Yards/Play	6.2	8th

* This time last year I was defending Jefferson with the expectation (hope?) that he would produce. In 2011 I agree with these guys.

* The 4th quarter efficiency rating is an interesting stat. LSU played a number of tight games in 2010 and being clutch in the final stanza was key. Guess who finished second in the league in that category. Jarett Lee. The only player statistically better won the Heisman trophy. LSU doesn’t beat Tennessee, Florida or Alabama without Lee. Tell me again why he doesn’t play more.

* Spencer Ware is the real deal. He looked great in the Cotton Bowl and shined at LSU’s Spring game.

*LSU will NOT win the division much less the SEC with Jefferson. At some point in the season we will need the QB to make plays and Jefferson does not have it in him.

*LSU’s defense will be very good once again. They will have to be because the offense will only be marginally better with Jefferson under center.

*I like the Tigers to go 10-2 this season. LSU will split these four games, Oregon, West Virginia, Alabama and Tennessee.

*LSU will go 6-0 at home and end the season with a 17 game home winning streak. The longest in the history of LSU football (?)

Sweet Pete

2011 Cotton Bowl

After a 15 year hiatus, LSU and Texas A&M renew a long standing rivalry. LSU’s history with A&M dates back to 1899.  In fact, LSU has played the Aggies 49 times, the third most frequent non-conference opponent in Tiger history.

A&M finished 9-3 defeating Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska down the stretch.   

In my eyes, the only “better” match-up for LSU’s bowl game would have been against Nebraska.  I am still waiting for the Tigers to avenge the series of loses to the Cornhuskers that occurred in the 80’s.  But the invitation to the Cotton Bowl resonates more than a credit card bowl game or a game named after a mediocre chain restaurant.  Of course Sugar would be sweeter, but a prime time match-up the Friday before the Championship game is a nice consolation present.

The Year in Review

If Les Miles can lead LSU to a win in the bowl game, he will join Bear Bryant and Phil Fulmer as the only SEC coaches to have four 11 win seasons, quite an accomplishment.  Looking at the season as a whole, the Tigers accomplished a great deal and won 10 games.  Wins over UNC, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Florida and Alabama should not be undervalued.  LSU’s only loses were to Auburn and Arkansas.  Those 8 teams are a combined 65-22 not counting their games against LSU.  For comparison, let us look at the top 8 games for these teams:

Team	Opp. Record	Teams w/ Winning Record
LSU	65-22	7
Oregon	50-34	3
Stanford	50-31	4
TCU	54-33	5
Wisconsin	56-31	5
Ohio State	53-34	6
Boise State	59-26	5

It could be argued that LSU actually overachieved considering the lack of a legitimate quarterback on the team. The Tigers finished 107th in the nation in passing. Dead last in the SEC. Jefferson had to be graded out with a ‘D’ for the season. He passed for only 1253 yards and FOUR touchdowns. FOUR! He also threw 9 INT’s and multiple fumbles. Miles says he likes Jefferson because he can run. Well, on 111 carries he only averaged 3.5 yards a carry with six TD’s. Take away the 83 yard TD versus Tennessee and it goes down to 2.7 yards a carry. In total, Jefferson ranked 10th in the SEC in yards per play amongst the league’s QB’s. He accounted for only 10 TD’s while turning the ball over at least 11 times.

After Lee’s strong showing in the Tennessee game and his brilliant display in the Swamp, I did not understand the insistence on going back to Jefferson. Certainly Lee is flawed, but Jefferson will NEVER win anything of consequence for the Tigers. He is not a leader and frankly, I am just tired of his crappiness. However, unless something drastic occurs in the off season, look for more of the same from the LSU offense.

This leads to a valid criticism of Miles. In six seasons as the LSU head coach, Miles has yet to bring in a QB that would rank in the top half of the league. In 2005, the Tigers signed Ryan Perrilloux. We all know how that turned out as he was kicked off the team before the 2008 season. In 2006 the Tigers did not sign a single QB. In 2007 Miles only signed Jarrett Lee. In 2008 the only QB to sign was Jordan Jefferson. In 2009 Chris Garrett and Russell Shepard signed with LSU. Garrett transferred at the beginning of 2010 and Shepard moved to WR in is second tear on campus. In 2010, LSU again only signed one QB, Zach Lee. Lee signed with the LA Dodgers and never played a down with the Tigers.

Considering how important a QB is to the success of a football team, Miles has been GROSSLY negligent in recruiting the position. In six seasons, Miles’ “star” QB recruit is Jordan Jefferson, probably the WORST regular starter at the position in LSU history.

The offensive play calling left so much to be desired this season. LSU only scored TD’s on 52% of their drives in the red zone. Contrast that with Auburn (68%), Arkansas (71%) and South Carolina (68%). I understand that LSU’s QB’s can hamstring the play calls, but LSU’s inability to put teams away stems from the conservative play calling inside the 20. LSU tied with Army and Middle Tennessee State for DEAD LAST in the nation in red zone passing TD’s with TWO!! TWO!!

This year’s defense was solid, but not elite. The loss of DE Sam Montgomery to injury half way through the season really hurt LSU. Brandon Taylor’s absence was really felt in the Ole Miss and Arkansas games. The Tigers finished 9th nationally in scoring defense, total defense and pass defense. LSU was 17th nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. The real weakness was in the run stopping, the Tigers finished 37th in the nation and 6th in the SEC in rushing defense. Guess who finished 1st and 2nd in the league against the run. It is not a coincidence that South Carolina (1st) and Auburn (2nd) are playing in the SEC title game. Since 2002, the eventually SEC Champ has ranked no worse than 4th in the SEC in rush defense in every season except 2005. Regardless of who wins this Saturday, 6 of the last 8 SEC champs will have finished 1st or 2nd in the SEC in rushing defense. For LSU to return to the SEC Title game, the Tigers are going to have to do a better job up front.

Drake Nevis and Pep Levingston will play their final games in LSU upcoming bowl. The Tigers have recruited well, thus it will be up to the defensive coaches to make the transition seamless. Kelvin Sheppard and Patrick Peterson are also gone but again, LSU has recruited well so there are players who can step up. My hope is that there is more depth at the LB position next season.

I expect the offensive line to get better as LSU only loses one starter. At WR, the Tigers lose Terrance Tolliver, but Randle will be back, and I expect Shepard to improve and one of Chris Tolliver, Kadrone Boone or Jarrett Fobbs to step up. At RB, the Tigers are loaded starting with Stevan Ridley. Although not a game breaker, he is great between the tackles and runs as if his life depends upon it.

10-2 is solid, but if the Tigers had an actual college level QB, who knows how special this season could have been.

192...in a row?!

A streak is going to end today.  It is not a well known streak or all that important to many people outside of the Traylor Clan.  But my dad, William Traylor, has attended every LSU home game since October 23, 1982.  Ironically enough, that was the first game I ever attended.

Last week’s victory over Alabama was a landmark win by Les Miles.  With so many questions looming over the program after two disappointing season, Miles needed this win to show the LSU faithful that the program was heading in the right direction and on sound footing.  In season six, with all his own players, LSU and Miles out played and outcoached the Crimson Tide. 

LSU will be 9-1 after this week.  Miles needs to finish strong and build off the good will he has generated this season.  If the Tigers win out they will play in a BCS bowl for the third time under Miles.  Considering how poor the offense has been, that would be an amazing accomplishment.

LSU v. Alabama

I wish I could be more optimistic, but I don’t give LSU much of a chance this weekend against Alabama.  I expect a close game, but ultimately a Tide victory.

Do you trust Jefferson to protect the ball?

Do you think Jefferson will generate any points on his drives?

Do you think Les Miles and staff will make better adjustments than Saban and his staff at halftime?

Raise your hand if just answered “NO” to all the questions above.  I have ZERO faith in Jefferson.  LSU's offensive staff has struggled all season and Alabama is not the type of team to get things turned around against.

LSU can win this game, but they must do the following:

*Generate at least 10 points from the defense and special teams, be it long returns or a defensive score.

*Win the turnover battle.

*Jarrett Lee needs to duplicate his game at Florida.

*Defense must bounce back to regular form.  

Les Miles is 4-5 in November over the last two seasons.  Despite the strong 7-1 start, Miles needs to make sure this season doesn’t unravel.  The last two years, the Tigers have noticeably slump after getting knocked out of the SEC West race.  This is not a must win for Miles, but knocking off Saban and ending Bama’s National Title hopes would be an enormous boost for “The Hat.”  Miles is 14-1 after a loss in his time at LSU, make it 15-1 and the LSU faithful will be all smiles, for one week at least.

The Mad Hatter

“It’s just a hat and I’m not mad at anybody.”

-Les Miles

You can’t make this stuff up.  If I didn’t know any better, I would think that Miles planned on the game going down to the wire to prove to the naysayers that, in fact, he can manage late game situations.  Miles pushed all the right buttons and called the fake FG which eventually led to the game winning touchdown.

I’m not going to go into Miles’ long term future or whether he is a good coach, lucky or has made a deal with Satan.  Bottom line, he’s got the 5^th most wins since 2005 among active coaches.  He’s 20-7 in games decided by 7 points or less.  His players give a tremendous amount of effort throughout the season.  He can make the most patient of fans pull their hair out.  He uses poor syntax and can speak in the most confusing manner. (The Quotable Les Miles)  But he wins.  He’s 6-0 and will be 7-0 going into Auburn next week.  The Tigers could finish the season anywhere between 14-0 and 8-5.  Miles can quiet a lot of detractors over the next 6 games.

Jarrett Lee has kept LSU undefeated this season.  He has led two game winning TD drives the last two weeks.  This last week was his best performance as a Tiger.  He started five drives against Florida and led the offense to four TD’s.  Jefferson started six drives and garnered a grand total of…..6 points.  Lee got more playing time in the second half and I believe it is inevitable that he eventually gets the large majority of snaps as the season moves along.

The defense played well versus Florida but the final drive by the Gators was frustrating.  Given the defensive excellence through six games, fans can hardly complain.

Given the perceptions of the media, LSU has not gotten much credit for their 6-0 start.  Any discussion of the Tigers includes references of clock mismanagement, luck or their formerly inept passing game.  Urban Meyer was 36-2 at the Swamp going into this game, the only losses coming to Auburn in 2007 and Ole Miss in 2008.  Despite Florida being a little down this year, this was a great win for LSU.  But all you hear about is Lucky Les and how mediocre UF has been this season.

LSU will handle McNeese this weekend, but the big test will be against Auburn in two weeks.  Enjoy the build up and savor the soon to be 7-0 start.   

Hi. My name is Les Miles, and I'm an idiot

Absurd - ridiculously unreasonable, unsound, or incongruous.  (Merriam Webster Dictionary)

The term that repeatedly comes to mind is “absurd.”  The stupidity and poor coaching at the end of that game goes beyond comprehension.  Whoever made the decision to try and sub players at the end of that game should be fired, Miles, Crowton, whoever.  For a group of people that make collectively over $4 million per season, the fiasco which will forever define this game is completely inexcusable.

1. Which phrase best describes the end of the LSU v. Tennessee?
1. A Chinese fire drill
2. A bunch of monkeys trying to f*ck a football
3. The Mad Hatter strikes again
4. All of the above

To begin with, it took the staff 20 seconds to run Jefferson in the game for the second down play.  Why was he in there?  Lee was doing a GREAT job on that drive?  Jefferson barely got the play off.  After getting tackled, instead of immediately spiking the ball, he looks to the sideline.  He was tackled with 26 seconds left to go.  With 14 seconds left, Tolliver, Shepard and Randall are run in.  Jefferson does not move to get under center until 7 seconds are left.  T-Bob snaps the ball with only 3 seconds left.  Of course Jefferson mishandles the snap.  Tennessee bailed LSU out by having too many players on the field.

Only a few people probably know the truth, but it is my guess that Miles called for the substitution.  He has no concept of time and this smacks of his disorganized mind.  Why weren’t two plays called?  Was Jefferson told to spike the ball if he didn’t make it and he panicked?  Regardless, I also blame Jefferson; he has NO CONCEPT of game situations or clock awareness.  He should have immediately taken charge and gathered the team up to spike the ball.  I cannot say how tired I am of Jefferson’s shortcomings.  He was 3 of 10 for 30 yards and 2 INT’s.  His passing efficiency rating was 15.2, possibly the lowest in LSU history for a player making at least 10 pass attempts.

Miles is now 56-15 at LSU.  He is 31-14 in SEC games.  His record defies logic.  How does someone who is so incompetent at managing late game situations compile such a record?  It’s almost too easy to say he’s dumb, a moron or a fool.  If it was simple as that, he would not be where he is or have had the success he has enjoyed.  Could he be called the village idiot that continually falls in shit and comes out smelling of roses?  Maybe he is incredibly lucky.  I think it is fair to say that he is one of the worst game day coaches out there.  After the game he said he was embarrassed about the chaos at the end of the game.  He should be.  He’s a joke and LSU fans deserve better.  At this point, Miles has absolutely no good will remaining and every game will be a referendum on whether he should be fired.  Miles has no one to blame but himself for the perception that the media and fans hold of him.

Les Miles, you’re an idiot.

Earlier this season I discussed Miles’ magic number.  At this point I think 9 wins is a must.  I am pretty confident there will be a big turnover on the offensive side of the ball if Miles is invited back next season.

On the positive side, Lee looked great relative to what we have seen from Jefferson thus far.  He threw downfield effectively and went 7 for 9 in the game winning drive.  Is he the savior? Nope.  But at this point he is the best LSU has to offer.  He took command of the team and made clutch throws down the stretch.

The defense was also terrific.  The Tigers gave up only 14 points and 217 yards to Tennessee.  LSU sacked Sims 5 times and stuffed the Vols on fourth down triggering LSU’s game winning drive.  LSU is now ranked 6^th in total defense, 6^th in rushing defense and 5^th in scoring defense nationally.  It is a shame this defense will be wasted by Miles’ stupidity.   

It seems inconceivable to me to be this frustrated with a 5-0 team.  Like most fans, I realize LSU and Les Miles are living on borrowed time.  With upcoming games versus Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas, LSU’s season may get very ugly before it’s over.

Florida is up next. The Gators were destroyed by Alabama Saturday.  I expect LSU’s defense to continue to carry the day in Gainesville.  The question is what will we get from the offense. Can Lee be “the guy” on offense?  Will Miles insist on Jefferson’s participation?  Can the defense generate some turnovers?  Can the offense stop committing turnovers?

LSU’s defense is too good to get blown out and Florida’s offense is too weak to dominate the Tigers.  Florida will make a few more plays than LSU and win by ten.  But don't be surprised if LSU comes out and plays very well.  Effort has NEVER been a question under Miles.  Don't be stunned if LSU pulls the upset.

Gators 23 – LSU 13 

Frustration Mounts

"It will only be a championship season, and that’s the only point and direction of this program. That’s where we’re headed."

-Les Miles

For Miles to deliver a championship in 2010, the offense must play better, particularly, Jordan Jefferson.  Among Tiger fans (and probably Tiger coaches) there is a tremendous amount of frustration with the offense.  LSU is currently ranked 115^th out of 120 teams in passing offense.  Jefferson is ranked 113^th in the country and dead last in the SEC in passing efficiency.  It appears that for some reason he has regressed from last season.  This is even more troubling when you consider the improvement by the offensive line and the running game.  Herb Tyler, where have you gone?

It seems clear that Jefferson is Miles’ guy.  Otherwise we would have seen Lee play a few meaningful snaps.  Miles believes that Jefferson gives LSU the best chance to win.  Having said that, it is also clear that the staff has VERY LITTLE faith in Jefferson.  The play calling is not fancy or diverse.  LSU must ‘out execute’ other teams because clearly they will not ‘out scheme’ any one.  Think about it, when was the last time you said, wow, that was a really great play call by LSU?

Miles’ plays Jefferson because unlike Lee, Jefferson is generally good at protecting the ball.  He had only 7 INT’s last season but is now on pace to finish this season with 12.  I assume Miles is willing to accept Jefferson’s shortcomings as long as he doesn’t kill LSU with turnovers.  Jefferson was sacked 37 times last season.  This year he is on pace for 12.  Again, Jefferson does not give up ‘negative’ plays.  I am not trying to justify Miles’ thought process, rather I am trying to explore the most likely scenario for why Lee remains firmly rooted to the bench.

The boos came cascading down last night as Jefferson’s play got worse as the game went along.  After starting 6 for 7, Jefferson went 4 for 15 finishing the game at 10 for 22 for 75 yards and 2 INT’s.  He still stares down receivers and can be terribly inaccurate. 

Last season, many of the talking heads on the local radio and in the nation media asked the question, “What is LSU’s identity?”  I think after four games that question has been answered in 2010.  LSU is going to play great defense, be excellent in special teams play and do just enough on offense to win the game.  The Tigers are going to run the ball and pass just enough to get by.  I believe the staff wants to shorten the game and reduce the number of drives by each team to cover up the offensive deficiencies.

The ultimate question then becomes, can LSU win with this philosophy?  More specifically, can LSU overtake Alabama and Florida in search of an SEC Title?  LSU has a national title worthy defense and special teams the envy of most teams in America.  But the offense may be the worst LSU has produced in the last 50 years.  In the age of spread offenses and with all the supposed talent on this team, the pathetic output of the offense is unacceptable.  I’m not saying Lee will be any better, but until he is given a chance, expect the booing to increase with every poor throw and missed wide receiver.